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Forum » Deutsche Bank Forecasts U.S. Recession For 2023-24
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Thread: Deutsche Bank Forecasts U.S. Recession For 2023-24

post 1659201243 04-06-2022, 08:22 AM
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Deutsche Bank Forecasts U.S. Recession For 2023-24


Deutsche Bank predicted the U.S. will fall into a recession in 2023 that will cause unemployment to go up to 5.1 percent due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to bring down inflation.

Deutsche, the first major bank to offer the negative forecast, said the recession will be 'moderate,' but it would serve as yet another blow to already struggling Americans, CNBC reported.

'The US economy is expected to take a major hit from the extra Fed tightening by late next year and early 2024,' the bank's economists said in a note to clients Tuesday.

'We see two negative quarters of growth and a more than 1.5 percent point rise in the US unemployment rate, developments that clearly qualify as a recession, albeit a moderate one.'

The prediction comes as the Fed voted to raise interest rates last month by a quarter point for the first time in three years to curb inflation, which is at nearly 8 percent and the highest its been in 40 years.

It also comes as 2-year Treasury yield momentarily surpassed the 10-year yield last week, a classic sign that has preceded every US recession.
post 1659201383 04-06-2022, 08:24 AM
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I think it will be sooner than that.
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post 1659201443 04-06-2022, 08:25 AM
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in on stimulus checks
post 1659201463 04-06-2022, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted By keyboardworkout⏩
I think it will be sooner than that.
Yep, I mean a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. I'm thinking we begin that this quarter, so by September of this year it should be verified.
post 1659201673 04-06-2022, 08:29 AM
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post 1659201723 04-06-2022, 08:30 AM
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Would there be less of a recession if Biden collected those Student Loans he keeps freezing?
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post 1659201763 04-06-2022, 08:31 AM
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We did it Joe!
post 1659201803 04-06-2022, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
Would there be less of a recession if Biden collected those Student Loans he keeps freezing?
He's just buying votes there.
post 1659202053 04-06-2022, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
He's just buying votes there.
Slightly agree.. won't cancel the student loans like he promised so this is the next best thing
post 1659202113 04-06-2022, 08:36 AM
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Do these forecasts ever turn out right?

The portfolio managers I work for are not forecasting a recession at this time.
post 1659202123 04-06-2022, 08:36 AM
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Start saving your shekels now boyos
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post 1659202493 04-06-2022, 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
Slightly agree.. won't cancel the student loans like he promised so this is the next best thing
It would actually help the economy greatly if people had to start making these payments again. No more staffing shortages.
post 1659202623 04-06-2022, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted By notbadnotbrad⏩
Do these forecasts ever turn out right?

The portfolio managers I work for are not forecasting a recession at this time.
Canada is a bit different than the US. Canada is only 40m people and a good amount of the economy is controlled by natural resources(which are doing quite well now, and will for a few years). Canada obviously will feel it a bit from the US tapering things down, but it may not force Canada into a recession.
post 1659202733 04-06-2022, 08:46 AM
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post 1659202853 04-06-2022, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Canada is a bit different than the US. Canada is only 40m people and a good amount of the economy is controlled by natural resources(which are doing quite well now, and will for a few years). Canada obviously will feel it a bit from the US tapering things down, but it may not force Canada into a recession.
They were referring to the US economy in our latest meeting. Rarely do they ever talk about Canada. They manage a US fund so the Canadian economy is almost irrelevant.
post 1659203033 04-06-2022, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted By notbadnotbrad⏩
Do these forecasts ever turn out right?

The portfolio managers I work for are not forecasting a recession at this time.
Very seldom, and if so it is basically by chance alone.

Also, the economy =/ the market (let alone individual stocks). We should recognize completely normal and to be expected market volatility and develop and maintain an asset allocation robust to it.
post 1659203553 04-06-2022, 08:58 AM
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The bond market has already priced in rate hikes till Dec 2022, a recession that winter, and rate cuts through 2023-24. They've seen this playbook too many times now... when the economy goes down, the Fed checkbook comes out.

Personally, I want to see the economy shock-tested by even a modest recession. China tried something similar by tightening lending standards to their property developers, and in months their biggest players were suddenly going insolvent.

My guess is that the US big boys are also likely leveraged to the tits after 12 years of easy money and they can't take any kind of hit to their cash flow. There will be some Enron accounting or Ninja loans chit that shows up and the problem will be much worse than we thought it was.
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post 1659204753 04-06-2022, 09:21 AM
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lol @ Deutsche

seems like they are fined every week for something, don't forget this is the bank that was fined over $150M for laundering Epstien's money
post 1659205173 04-06-2022, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Yep, I mean a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. I'm thinking we begin that this quarter, so by September of this year it should be verified.
inversion yield curve just happened. On average it takes 14 months from the inversion curve for the recession to begin. The fastest ever has been 6 months.

We're awhile out but the curve hasnevernot predicted a recession.
post 1659206133 04-06-2022, 09:51 AM
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Don't worry the Fed will hit warp speed mode on the printers, drop rates and pump 20+ trillion into the economy to keep it afloat. It will be at that point that confidence in the USD falls off a cliff and loses its reserve currency status. The Fed really has no playbook here, they either allow the recession to happen and allow things to recover as they should or go full r3tard with stimulus. Either way there's tough times ahead but the USD losing status would be worst case scenario.
post 1659206223 04-06-2022, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted By notbadnotbrad⏩
They were referring to the US economy in our latest meeting. Rarely do they ever talk about Canada. They manage a US fund so the Canadian economy is almost irrelevant.
Even the Fed is already saying we will have a recession, so they must have been using old data.

The steep rise in rates is the Fed's way of saying, "We are going to have a recession". The reason they are doing it is do they have control once it happens. If rates stayed at .25% they wouldn't have any ammo and would be totally fuked.
post 1659206913 04-06-2022, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted By monster0ultra⏩
Misc is full of complete fools who insist that they can predict whether real estate, stocks, crypto, whatever will go up or down. If they knew these things, they would be obscenely rich yet none of them are.

What is common sense that anyone should be able to see however is that the US is headed for an eventual decline. The stock market tracks the performance of the country itself. It can be propped up house of cards but eventually, it will correct and reflect true value. This isn't the fault of Biden, or clown world, or anything else, it's simply a reflection of the quality of the people.
I think there's plenty of smart people on this forum. If you can't decipher who is a fool, I think that's on you. I've also doubled my net worth many times over since joining. I wouldn't say I'm rich but doing well. That's mostly on me, but just having discussions and thought processes with other people has helped me a lot.
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post 1659208783 04-06-2022, 10:37 AM
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post 1659209173 04-06-2022, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Even the Fed is already saying we will have a recession, so they must have been using old data.

The steep rise in rates is the Fed's way of saying, "We are going to have a recession". The reason they are doing it is do they have control once it happens. If rates stayed at .25% they wouldn't have any ammo and would be totally fuked.
Lol my pms obviously use the latest data.

They just don’t believe they’ll be able to hike rates 9 times or whatever it is over the next 2 years and the market has priced this in so things won’t be as bad (or something like that, I usually just draw cubes and other 3D shapes in these meetings).
post 1659209203 04-06-2022, 10:45 AM
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in 4 stagflation.
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post 1659209473 04-06-2022, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted By Azrairc⏩
inversion yield curve just happened. On average it takes 14 months from the inversion curve for the recession to begin. The fastest ever has been 6 months.

We're awhile out but the curve has never not predicted a recession.
This is false
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post 1659209653 04-06-2022, 10:54 AM
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Just remember a recession only affects us plebs, don’t expect it to hurt blackrock, vanguard, B of A, etc at all. In fact, it’ll only strengthen them.

Our friendly neighborhood socialists like Liz Warren will be sure they get bailed out, as they’re “too big to fail.” We’ll foot the bill or course


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post 1659209843 04-06-2022, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
Slightly agree.. won't cancel the student loans like he promised so this is the next best thing
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