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Forum » Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels
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Thread: Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels

post 1659568023 04-13-2022, 08:06 AM
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Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels



https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...nth%20or%20two.
Originally Posted By reuters
According to the NAR, higher mortgage rates and sustained house price inflation had resulted in a 28% year-over-year jump in mortgage payments as of February.
People have been borrowing at max dti, they cannot afford anymore than the 2021 market at below inflation interest. Now we are directly seeing number of buyers drop, and transactions decreasing as soon as QE cancelling was announced.
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post 1659568203 04-13-2022, 08:08 AM
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post 1659568293 04-13-2022, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted By OffwhiteBrah⏩
b-b-but muh equity







Yeah this is why you can't trust journalist narratives without supporting stats. If someone isn't providing causal support of their statements then they're 100% bullchitting you.

I would way rather borrow at higher interest, lower principal because you're likely never under, insurance is far cheaper, taxes are far cheaper, goddamnit everything is cheaper. its clear there was a backlog of demand from early 2020 that caused a rush for gold when the fed started QE. No more, no less. No one can support statements otherwise.


Let me be absolutely clear. There is no mechanism for this situation to improve. Home sales will continue declining until it reaches natural support. People are now moving back from where they came in panic of the feds raising rates. They do not want to be stuck where they migrated to. Stats next month will show this.
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post 1659568563 04-13-2022, 08:14 AM
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Gee who would have guessed demand declines when prices rise too high
post 1659568643 04-13-2022, 08:15 AM
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Definitely NOT the case in Texas as of right now... However... after seeing my County appraisal go up $92 fkng thousand dollars from last year I could certainly see this deterring people but my fear is this BS has set the bar and is here to stay. Its almost as if the government is doing anything it can to insure people never become land / home owners *gasp*
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post 1659568773 04-13-2022, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted By anonkunbrah⏩
Gee who would have guessed demand declines when prices rise too high
bruh, we just had a six page argument over this point

people literally quoting prices in asia to defend prices here then turning around and saying pRiCeS aRe LoCaL yet ignoring our NATIONAL rates which operate at NEITHER of those scales...complete insanity
Originally Posted By 1slo5oh⏩
Definitely NOT the case in Texas as of right now... However... after seeing my County appraisal go up $92 fkng thousand dollars from last year I could certainly see this deterring people but my fear is this BS has set the bar and is here to stay. Its almost as if the government is doing anything it can to insure people never become land / home owners *gasp*
texas sucks, so I don't think it will sustain

which is great news for you.
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post 1659568813 04-13-2022, 08:20 AM
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market is going to crash for sure.
post 1659569293 04-13-2022, 08:29 AM
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Lmao rentcels when with they learn
Originally Posted By lsiberian⏩
market is going to crash for sure.
If by “crash” you mean increase a further 10% then sure

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...ar-2022-03-02/

Remember: asset prices do NOT move with interest rates. They move with people’s expectations of what interest rates will be (among other things). Any future interest rate rises have already been incorporated into everyone’s price expectations and purchasing decisions.
post 1659569403 04-13-2022, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted By lsiberian⏩
market is going to crash for sure.
Any day now!
post 1659569533 04-13-2022, 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Lmao rentcels when with they learn



If by “crash” you mean increase a further 10% then sure

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...ar-2022-03-02/

Remember: asset prices do NOT move with interest rates. They move with people’s expectations of what interest rates will be (among other things). Any future interest rate rises have already been incorporated into everyone’s price expectations and purchasing decisions.
uh okay boomer

people are at their borrowing limit, they can't magically produce more money for themselves

If what you said was true then we should have seen median home price rise even more over the last 4 months but it FELL from $415k to $400k.

in fact, from the article you quoted:
Originally Posted By reuters
Record low interest rates and a scarcity of homes to buy, combined with unexpectedly explosive demand during the pandemic, sent the average house price up 17% last year, the strongest annual rise in at least two decades.
so interest rates only contribute to the rise, never to the fall according to you LMAO

I mean obviously you're trolling at this point
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post 1659569573 04-13-2022, 08:34 AM
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can't # of sales be low due to low supply? where's the supply numbers
post 1659569763 04-13-2022, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted By 1slo5oh⏩
Definitely NOT the case in Texas as of right now... However... after seeing my County appraisal go up $92 fkng thousand dollars from last year I could certainly see this deterring people but my fear is this BS has set the bar and is here to stay. Its almost as if the government is doing anything it can to insure people never become land / home owners *gasp*
Yeah I just got a notice that my county appraisal is set to double. Oh well, my 2021 property taxes were $946 so I think I'll survive this, don't think it has been appraised by the county in a decade or so. Must suck for you guys in TX though aren't your property taxes like Illinois level of extortion?

These threads are retarded. Home prices have gone up so far since 2020 that even a 25% crash would simply put the price back to what it was in 2020, the difference being now the mortgage rate is 5%+ so if you didn't buy in 2020 you're fuked.
post 1659569803 04-13-2022, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Yeah I just got a notice that my county appraisal is set to double. Oh well, my 2021 property taxes were $946 so I think I'll survive this, don't think it has been appraised by the county in a decade or so. Must suck for you guys in TX though aren't your property taxes like Illinois level of extortion?
Your taxes can't be raised more than 3% taxable value per year. That's a reason why its incredibly advantageous to buy during low principle periods.
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post 1659569843 04-13-2022, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
uh okay boomer

people are at their borrowing limit, they can't magically produce more money for themselves

If what you said was true then we should have seen median home price rise even more over the last 4 months but it FELL from $415k to $400k.

in fact, from the article you quoted:



so interest rates only contribute to the rise, never to the fall according to you LMAO

I mean obviously you're trolling at this point
Nope

Read what I said again

Interest rate policy curbs spending

But it curbs it from the time it’s announced

Therefore people have already adjusted their price expectations

Guess you’ve never been in the market to buy a house so these things don’t make much sense to you
post 1659569923 04-13-2022, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Nope

Read what I said again

Interest rate policy curbs spending

But it curbs it from the time it’s announced

Therefore people have already adjusted their price expectations

Guess you’ve never been in the market to buy a house so these things don’t make much sense to you
yup trolling

I've bought multiple properties. I'm selling what I have now. I'm getting completely tf out.

It was announced dec2021

sales have been declining since then lmao

but that doesn't decrease prices when the same price home is 28% more expensive lmao

by your assertion, prices are meaningless and you should always buy. You're accusing me of being agnostic of market factors while providing a premise that requires me to do so.

edit: that article is from BENGALURU, india lmao
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post 1659569973 04-13-2022, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Your taxes can't be raised more than 3% taxable value per year. That's a reason why its incredibly advantageous to buy during low principle periods.
That's the case in Florida, I live in Tennessee now not sure what the case is here, I just know property taxes are so damn low I don't really care.
post 1659570033 04-13-2022, 08:44 AM
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Depends on the area. My old house(moved right before covid hit) is now valued below what I sold it for. My new house has gone up 30% and just keeps rising.
post 1659570153 04-13-2022, 08:46 AM
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this will blow your mind.

so i am a licensed RE agent where I am currently (have done 1 deal) but after rate increases, youd think average home pricing would take a dip...... well it didnt, at all.

avg sales price in March was $679,235, up from $638,248 the month prior.

in March, monthly supply went from .4 to .5, showings per listing went from 12.4 to 13.0, and closed sales went from 4,596 to 6,846.

it legit seems as if, at least, no fuks are being given to interest rates. people are buying regardless of it.

any other local stats wanted let me know. can look it up.
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post 1659570163 04-13-2022, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Lmao rentcels when with they learn



If by “crash” you mean increase a further 10% then sure

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...ar-2022-03-02/

Remember: asset prices do NOT move with interest rates. They move with people’s expectations of what interest rates will be (among other things). Any future interest rate rises have already been incorporated into everyone’s price expectations and purchasing decisions.
DTIs don't permit us to loan the same money amount to people with higher interest rates.
post 1659570193 04-13-2022, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted By EnderG60⏩
Depends on the area. My old house(moved right before covid hit) is now valued below what I sold it for. My new house has gone up 30% and just keeps rising.
where did you move from?
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post 1659570263 04-13-2022, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted By friesbruh⏩
this will blow your mind.

so i am a licensed RE agent where I am currently (have done 1 deal) but after rate increases, youd think average home pricing would take a dip...... well it didnt, at all.

avg sales price in March was $679,235, up from $638,248 the month prior.

in March, monthly supply went from .4 to .5, showings per listing went from 12.4 to 13.0, and closed sales went from 4,596 to 6,846.

it legit seems as if, at least, no fuks are being given to interest rates. people are buying regardless of it.

any other local stats wanted let me know. can look it up.
people still had locked in rates

averages and sales have decreased nationally already, there is no disputing that
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post 1659570283 04-13-2022, 08:48 AM
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SHould i go all in on Bitcoin?
See monster0ultra's sig
post 1659570393 04-13-2022, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted By RICHSTRONG⏩
SHould i go all in on Bitcoin?
people buy crypto because they think normal currency is weak

while they ignore that crypto relies on the same infrastructure and solves none of the stated problems or use cases

Think about it. Everyone "invests" in crypto. No one uses it. If you're trying to trade based off some obvious trends, then sure. If you're investing long term then that could easily be a disaster as the flaws become more apparent.
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post 1659570483 04-13-2022, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted By lsiberian⏩
DTIs don't permit us to loan the same money amount to people with higher interest rates.
The price increases aren’t being driven by people that need to borrow money

Again: interest rates are an economic tool, and they are effective as at the date of announcement

Google “efficient market hypothesis”
post 1659570513 04-13-2022, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
The price increases aren’t being driven by people that need to borrow money

Again: interest rates are an economic tool, and they are effective as at the date of announcement
huh

that's bizarre

34% are first time homebuyers, another 30% people buying their second home, and finally the last third are investors.

MOST people are financing. 34% just got priced out.

Please respond.

edit: brother you are making me go bald with this trolling

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ges-from-2002/
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post 1659570523 04-13-2022, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
where did you move from?
Im a bit north of Atlanta. I moved literally 7 minutes away from my old house but different county.

Remember top 3 things to consider in real estate. Location, location, location.
post 1659570583 04-13-2022, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted By EnderG60⏩
Im a bit north of Atlanta. I moved literally 7 minutes away from my old house but different county.

Remember top 3 things to consider in real estate. Location, location, location.
no doubt, there will be money in real estate for anyone that understands the differential
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post 1659570713 04-13-2022, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted By EnderG60⏩
Im a bit north of Atlanta. I moved literally 7 minutes away from my old house but different county.

Remember top 3 things to consider in real estate. Location, location, location.
basically anywhere without joggers and other mongoloids will always sell good
post 1659570813 04-13-2022, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
huh

that's bizarre

34% are first time homebuyers, another 30% people buying their second home, and finally the last third are investors.

MOST people are financing. 34% just got priced out.

Please respond.
Prices in a market incorporate available information

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...hypothesis.asp
post 1659570943 04-13-2022, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Prices in a market incorporate available information

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...hypothesis.asp
that can only describe the market, not predict

You won't know if you're in a weak/strong setting until after the fact. Its not a market principle....
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