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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668598943 09-28-2022, 09:05 AM
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#451
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Whats wild is that Bank of England has gone completely Turkey.

This is surreal in time where UK is having to subsidize energy costs / inflation not stopping and pound losing value every day.


They are now going to start QE again. (not a joke)


https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...nt-2022-09-28/
This time next year the fed will be firing up QE full force.
mo e
post 1668599113 09-28-2022, 09:09 AM
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#452
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
This time next year the fed will be firing up QE full force.
Than we will be buying milk for $15 gallon.



It looks like margin call on pension fund forced BoE hand.

https://www.risk.net/derivatives/795...sterling-slide
post 1668599533 09-28-2022, 09:18 AM
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#453
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Honestly I think an expectation of flipping to QE will just mean the Fed clamps down harder, inflation expectations are a huge component of all this and is a big part of what feeds into price increases


They need to get people thinking that prices are actually going to come down. And by people, I don't mean Elon Musk and Cathie Woods who have obvious incentive to hammer Fed policy that is destructive to their businesses
post 1668600503 09-28-2022, 09:31 AM
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#454
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huge rejection of 10 year yield at 4%

is causing this relief pop.


before someone says why are growth stocks up 5%+ today


here is your chance for Destor rally to start next week.

edit: Destor not throwing shade,,,,I am leaning same way think there is rally in the cards.

yields down
dxy down


bond market trying to calm.





longer view.

if 10 year can keep sliding toward 3% than you will get rally in market.


post 1668602853 09-28-2022, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I've got 6 months of powdered milk for $60 (<$3/gallon), will not be paying $15/gallon if it happens. Might need to double my supply now
Think I might just look into buying cows now - seems cheaper.
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Honestly I think an expectation of flipping to QE will just mean the Fed clamps down harder, inflation expectations are a huge component of all this and is a big part of what feeds into price increases


They need to get people thinking that prices are actually going to come down. And by people, I don't mean Elon Musk and Cathie Woods who have obvious incentive to hammer Fed policy that is destructive to their businesses
Hope all that tough talk from Powell is real. Market seems like it is calling his bluff.
mo e
post 1668603343 09-28-2022, 10:16 AM
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#456
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IMO every rally, every good unemployment number, every positive earnings report is just more ammunition for the Fed and proof the economy can take more pressure.

Rampant inflation is far worse over the long term than the pain of bringing it down
post 1668605943 09-28-2022, 10:53 AM
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#457
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Fed says 4.5 by year end, they say .75 in Nov and .50 in Dec but it will likely be .50 in Nov and .25 in Dec, markets turn higher until 2023.

They say rate cuts starting in 2024 with 4 and continuing into 2025 with 4 more but the cuts likely begin in the 2nd half of 2023.

They project GDP to be .2%, 1.2% 2023 and 1.7% 2024, GDP will be lower in 2023 but will rise in/to 2024.



Bottom on the market will be above 3250 in 2022 but will see a new low in 2023.



I'll be buying calls expiring in 2023, in 2023 I'm buying puts expiring in 2023 and then I'll be buying calls again expiring 2024, I'm eyeing certain stocks for long term hold as well.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1668608893 09-28-2022, 11:40 AM
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#458
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
IMO every rally, every good unemployment number, every positive earnings report is just more ammunition for the Fed and proof the economy can take more pressure.

Rampant inflation is far worse over the long term than the pain of bringing it down
One data series isn't going to change Fed mind.

Market is trying to sell idea that it will.

Hence why 50BPS next month is now at 50% chance vs 75BPS.

That could flip easily in two weeks when Sept inflation data comes in.

Plus ****load of earnings and elections before next FOMC.


All this is doing is creating tons of volatility.

Market being driven by news events and quotes atm.








.................................................. ......................


Easiest way to look at it.

Every rally is just chance to sell the rip.

This will be another rally that selling calls will work.

Trendline has been dead on whole year.


post 1668609883 09-28-2022, 11:56 AM
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#459
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Saw rumors on twitter apple is halting utilization of increased Iphone production capacity due to lack of demand. Someone ITT may or may not have called that a month or 2 ago
A couple months ago they talked about this on The Motley Fool.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1668611293 09-28-2022, 12:22 PM
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#460
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Dollar coming down
post 1668611573 09-28-2022, 12:26 PM
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#461
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Crude is bouncing though.

Market can't catch break lmao.


That hurricane hitting florida is no joke.

Apparently bunch of rigs and refiners are shut down atm.


post 1668612683 09-28-2022, 12:41 PM
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#462
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre post_id=1668611573]Crude is bouncing though.

Market can't catch break lmao.


That hurricane hitting florida is no joke.

Apparently bunch of rigs and refiners are shut down atm.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/3Zs5RcZ.png[/QUOTE]Gas prices are up 20 cents in my area here in Saskatchewan
post 1668613633 09-28-2022, 01:00 PM
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#463
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Gas prices are up 20 cents in my area here in Saskatchewan
Yeah all across country its up.

Same.




post 1668614223 09-28-2022, 01:09 PM
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#464
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We're fortunate that hurricane season has been mild this year, hopefully this is the worst of it
post 1668614703 09-28-2022, 01:18 PM
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#465
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I've got 6 months of powdered milk for $60 (<$3/gallon), will not be paying $15/gallon if it happens. Might need to double my supply now
My fruit trees for the first time produced more fruit than we can eat for harvest so I’m tryna jam it. Will report back how it goes lmao
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1668620763 09-28-2022, 03:02 PM
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#466
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Oregon brah here, gas is up 50 cents this week and we also have the added problem of no staff to pump it, the cheapest place I get gas has only been half pumps open half the day due to no staff.
Instead of 16 pumps operating 5am-10pm its 8 pumps from 8am-5pm
STEM Wagie Brah
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post 1668621743 09-28-2022, 03:23 PM
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#467
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Oregon brah here, gas is up 50 cents this week and we also have the added problem of no staff to pump it, the cheapest place I get gas has only been half pumps open half the day due to no staff.
Instead of 16 pumps operating 5am-10pm its 8 pumps from 8am-5pm
Pump your own damn gas lazy bones.

Or at least make your kids or wife do it.

sheesh
post 1668634813 09-28-2022, 07:51 PM
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#468
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
Tesla crew.

LOL @ gascels

Also:
Spoiler!
carboncuck loves inhaling penis
Free and clear I hope. Because lol @ debtcels
post 1668636723 09-28-2022, 08:30 PM
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#469
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feels good to live rent free in that fraudticle's head

guy drives poverty model 3

down 200K on his fraud investing account

has no hope in hell ever returning to green on those shiity growth stocks that he will average down for next 5 years before some of them go otc or private
post 1668653273 09-29-2022, 08:07 AM
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#470
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Well… that didn’t take long… LOL
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1668653293 09-29-2022, 08:09 AM
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#471
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

took day for market to digest the details how close UK market was about to blow up.

now they are realizing wait of minute. risk off again on the table.



Damn.


UK almost had lehman style blow up yesterday via pension funds.


This article is crazy.

https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-...4-206386353c4e


Risk of something blowing up just got much closer.
post 1668653353 09-29-2022, 08:10 AM
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#472
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Sad reality is that charging rates are going up around the world as well, I don't think it's hitting too hard yet for people charging in their garage overnight but rates at Superchargers are waaaaay up and I imagine it affects Electrify America etc


We're setting up for the rally brahs, here it comes
post 1668654413 09-29-2022, 08:28 AM
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Oregon brah here, gas is up 50 cents this week and we also have the added problem of no staff to pump it, the cheapest place I get gas has only been half pumps open half the day due to no staff.
Instead of 16 pumps operating 5am-10pm its 8 pumps from 8am-5pm
Just LMAO at states that don't let you pump your own gas. What absolute chit holes.
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post 1668654773 09-29-2022, 08:33 AM
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#474
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all pandemic gains wiped out, ouch
post 1668655193 09-29-2022, 08:41 AM
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#475
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My 1 year chart is now negative
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1668655283 09-29-2022, 08:43 AM
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#476
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

took day for market to digest the details how close UK market was about to blow up.

now they are realizing wait of minute. risk off again on the table.



Damn.


UK almost had lehman style blow up yesterday via pension funds.


This article is crazy.

https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-...4-206386353c4e


Risk of something blowing up just got much closer.
Archive link for that UK article . . .

https://archive.ph/ZQkK4
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post 1668655813 09-29-2022, 08:56 AM
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#477
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Lots of small funds seem to be on the edge depending on what they trade. Look at the DNA chart yesterday and tell me there wasn’t forced selling.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1668657413 09-29-2022, 09:25 AM
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#478
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
Archive link for that UK article . . .

https://archive.ph/ZQkK4
Thanks - Carbon's is paywalled. Your link isn't working for me for some reason...
mo e
post 1668658293 09-29-2022, 09:40 AM
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#479
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Might be time to be on oil bull again soon.
post 1668659023 09-29-2022, 09:52 AM
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#480
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How about this link?

https://www.risk.net/derivatives/795...sterling-slide

Gilt = bonds

This all cascaded to super shiiit real fast when the new UK government thought it was good idea to do tax cuts for rich and do more fiscal spending.

You have central bank (BoE) raising rates and you decide to go Turkey and try to add more inflation.

Hence why UK pounds went to shiit so fast and something stable as uk bonds went see you later.

UK pension funds were holding bonds their portfolios like any pension portfolio in world.

They got getting margin called to post extra cash because the bonds lost so much value....not that easy to find money to post for margin call.

UK markets start to freeze up so the BoE has to step in and say buy these bonds to prevent **** from blowing up.



Blow up has been prevented atm. But at what cost?


Is there chance for more cracks like this to appear elsewhere down the road? You would think so no?
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