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Forum » Official Russia vs Ukraine Thread V- The winter is coming: A tale of stupid sanctions
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Thread: Official Russia vs Ukraine Thread V- The winter is coming: A tale of stupid sanctions

post 1669187783 10-09-2022, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
There's more than enough to drop a dirty bomb from a local hospital alone. That's as janky as you described but only limits area contamination.

But yes they cannot achieve an atomic or otherwise blast without buying the fuel from Russia.
I mean memcop, you know what I'm saying makes sense. Even though these guys think I'm trolling, you know what I'm saying is very possible. The Ukrainians COULD very well deliver a nuclear or chemical retaliation if they get attacked like that. We all know that they have the tech. They aren't goat f***ers. They wouldn't just accept being hit by a tactical nuke and just surrender. It's actually possible that they've been developing something already.

Acknowledging this fact does not mean you think Ukraine will win the war (not meant for you memcop, just the people mocking me for suggesting the dangers of ANY (not just Russia) country using weapons of that magnitude.
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post 1669187883 10-09-2022, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted By 3Reich⏩
They could go the chemical weapons route too. Not everything has to be connected to a warhead bruh. Russia would open themselves up to terrorist retaliation with very serious weapons if they did it.

And yes, Ukraine CAN quickly develop nuclear weapons since they already have the technology (they gave them up when the Soviet Union broke up).
Nah bro, just drop it.

Would be spectacularly retarded for them to consider going dirty bomb/chemical weapon terrorist route - if we contemplate that they could, which they can't -, nothing to gain from that, would only shift public opinion away from them and no way that NATO would want to do anything with them after a move like that. Also let's not propose murdering civvies for the sake of it.

And no, they absolutely do not have the expertise, tech, funding and WILL to start a nuclear arms program, even in a hypothetical scenario that would take years, untold billions and you know, gov AND scientists being retarded enough to paint a massive target on their backs - Russia actually would have a legit reason to feel threatened -, breach the Non Proliferation Treaty and to alienate any and all support they could get.

Even if the stars aligned and they magically conjured everything that was needed, they would be stomped out in 5 seconds flat by the West.
post 1669187963 10-09-2022, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted By exxtracool⏩
theres no need to get so angry man. lol.


and i would read your posts but i need a rosetta stone to decipher half the **** you post.
Russian broken English is the worst. I can understand ESL Chinese much better.
post 1669188063 10-09-2022, 12:40 PM
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#9064
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
Well first of all it disproves that this whole not war had anything to do with NATO's expansion and just makes Russia look impotent after "threatening" Finland and Sweden for decades in case they wanted to join NATO and just changing their mind overnight and saying "k you can do whatever you want, why should we care haha".

Then there's the matter of NATO countries being within spitting distance (iirc 100 kms or so) of Severomorsk, the HQ of the Northern Fleet.

NATO can also directly keep tabs on the Baltic Sea - besides the Black Sea - and the Gulf of Finland, the entrance to St Petersburg's harbor. Also turning bases into NATO bases overnight, parking troops materiel etc.



Still waiting for a morsel of a source about Russians magically making up for lost income from Europe - you know, the major source of their profits. EU was/is paying premium prices while India/China were/are buying petro for a penny on the dollar, and it's still physically impossible to summon pipelines and/or tankers so they can just press a button and redirect crap from A to B.
Siberia 2
Modified Siberian 1

Feel free to research both. I'm not going to argue or do any homework for you.

2023 projections on S1 alone are 35-40bn cm of natural gas alone.

Let me know when you want to point out another commodity. And for the record the discount is on petroleum.
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post 1669188313 10-09-2022, 12:43 PM
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#9065
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Originally Posted By 3Reich⏩
I mean memcop, you know what I'm saying makes sense. Even though these guys think I'm trolling, you know what I'm saying is very possible. The Ukrainians COULD very well deliver a nuclear or chemical retaliation if they get attacked like that. We all know that they have the tech. They aren't goat f***ers. They wouldn't just accept being hit by a tactical nuke and just surrender. It's actually possible that they've been developing something already.

Acknowledging this fact does not mean you think Ukraine will win the war (not meant for you memcop, just the people mocking me for suggesting the dangers of ANY (not just Russia) country using weapons of that magnitude.
Ukraine is desperate and acting without honor I'm battle.

They could and would do anything they can. They've hidden who they were long enough but things are falling apart. They've only kept a nice appearance for the help.

US is already talking peace. Mask is coming off
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post 1669188603 10-09-2022, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
Ukraine is desperate and acting without honor I'm battle.

They could and would do anything they can. They've hidden who they were long enough but things are falling apart. They've only kept a nice appearance for the help.

US is already talking peace. Mask is coming off
I dont see ukraine agreeing to a peace deal that hands over all the “annexed” regions.

Russia has official ratified all the regions into russia proper so i dont see how the kremlin can go back on that and agree to a peace deal that only grants them the donbas for example… that would effectively mean that they just gave up 2 regions of russia.
post 1669188623 10-09-2022, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
Siberia 2
Modified Siberian 1

Feel free to research both. I'm not going to argue or do any homework for you.

2023 projections on S1 alone are 35-40bn cm of natural gas alone.

Let me know when you want to point out another commodity. And for the record the discount is on petroleum.
- Only 2 more years until they START building Power of Siberia 2.

- PoS 1 expected to deliver 18 bcm this year, projected 38 bcm by 2025.

- Meanwhile Russia delivered 150 bcm to Europe in 2021.

Crunch those numbers for us, boyo.
post 1669188663 10-09-2022, 12:49 PM
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This is the kind of chit ukrainians are constantly saying, and when putin reminds them that there will be a nuclear response if that happens the retard crew decides russia must be losing because putin is getting desperate enough to use nukes

https://mobile.twitter.com/motytchak...59261014822913

Roman Motychak - ATACMS ASAP ������������
@motytchak
I will go even further and say that if the West uses nuclear weapons against russia preventively, -- russia is to blame.
No one else.

russia started genocidal war on Ukraine and conducts nuclear terrorism in ZNPP.
in order to stop it even the nuclear strike is allowed
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post 1669188893 10-09-2022, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
This is the kind of chit ukrainians are constantly saying, and when putin reminds them that there will be a nuclear response if that happens the retard crew decides russia must be losing because putin is getting desperate enough to use nukes

https://mobile.twitter.com/motytchak...59261014822913

Roman Motychak - ATACMS ASAP ������������
@motytchak
I will go even further and say that if the West uses nuclear weapons against russia preventively, -- russia is to blame.
No one else.

russia started genocidal war on Ukraine and conducts nuclear terrorism in ZNPP.
in order to stop it even the nuclear strike is allowed
So we went from "muh nooks" to "muh nooks if the West uses nooks first" just because some retarded literally who Ukie tweeted something?
post 1669188943 10-09-2022, 12:55 PM
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Keep hearing all this chit labeling Russia fascist and genocidal when they are a multiethnic multinational federation, and it is Ukraine passing prejudiced laws, using nazi symbols and rhetoric, and rehabilitating the image of nazis. It was Ukraine that made their state so unbearable for Russians living there that they wanted to secede. And it's Ukraine who refused peace multiple fuking times.
post 1669189023 10-09-2022, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted By Muscle2021⏩
Srs question. How does Sweden or Finland joining NATO change anything?
NATO expansion with Article 5 would naturally be bad for Russia. Two more countries that will fight against them should they mess with a NATO member. Also having NATO members on their borders makes striking them much much easier and effective.
post 1669189163 10-09-2022, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted By Muscle2021⏩
Srs question. How does Sweden or Finland joining NATO change anything?
In practice it doesn't change the strategic balance. However, if we start deploying WMD and troops to the border, it will create instability.
post 1669189173 10-09-2022, 01:00 PM
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Original Ruckus
post 1669189203 10-09-2022, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
You think American energy will happen as a sustainable source?

Do you acknowledge that Russia has made up European fuel sales to China and India in the 50-60% range and are projected to make up the remaining sales in the next year in developing countries?

Do you also acknowledge the Russian position on new comers to NATO?

These all happen to be things.
Sure, Russian is selling at a steep discount to poverty 3rd world countries. It's much much more costly to get them the energy than it was to get to Europe. Russia is clearly making much less money from this arrangement. And weaning Europe from Russian energy means Russia has little to know influence in the region and is cut out from all the economic growth that first world countries provide.

And WGAF what Russia's position is on new NATO members. Article 5 says an attack on one is an attack on all, and Russia can't even handle Ukraine. The world knows Russia's sabre rattling is impotent. Should they want to loose nukes they's be blown from the earth and they wouldn't be able to dole out the same kind of punishment. Hell, based on what we've seen in Ukraine, I'd be surprised if more than a small percentage actually worked. Anyways, Putin has zero incentive to launch, he's going to give up his cushy life and non-stop array of tail for what?

And meme see my pm por faovor.
post 1669189413 10-09-2022, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
- Only 2 more years until they START building Power of Siberia 2.

- PoS 1 expected to deliver 18 bcm this year, projected 38 bcm by 2025.

- Meanwhile Russia delivered 150 bcm to Europe in 2021.

Crunch those numbers for us, boyo.
I'm not sure what your quick fact find "proves."

Russia has to beat 50% futures to avoid a collapse or 12% contraction.

Whatever you're trying to argue, you can do so until you're blue in the face. All you have to do is keep up with the projected contraction of the Russian market.

As I've said you touched on one commodity and like a child you're looking to argue to no end.

Watch the market you advocated to kill. Poke it with a stick to see if it's dead. These are your hopes. Not mine.
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post 1669189503 10-09-2022, 01:05 PM
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#9076
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Originally Posted By CCCultistKilla⏩
Sure, Russian is selling at a steep discount to poverty 3rd world countries. It's much much more costly to get them the energy than it was to get to Europe. Russia is clearly making much less money from this arrangement. And weaning Europe from Russian energy means Russia has little to know influence in the region and is cut out from all the economic growth that first world countries provide.

And WGAF what Russia's position is on new NATO members. Article 5 says an attack on one is an attack on all, and Russia can't even handle Ukraine. The world knows Russia's sabre rattling is impotent. Should they want to loose nukes they's be blown from the earth and they wouldn't be able to dole out the same kind of punishment. Hell, based on what we've seen in Ukraine, I'd be surprised if more than a small percentage actually worked. Anyways, Putin has zero incentive to launch, he's going to give up his cushy life and non-stop array of tail for what?
What are they selling at a steep discount? Be specific.

There is also no weaning.

Only the US has that luxury as we still intake Russian fuel in order to wind down.

Russia could not handle NATO also neither want ww3. I'm asking what the Russian position and red line is regarding NATO membership.

You can join but if you do x, this will be the consequence.

Russia 99.99% will not launch under current conditions however with war there are chaotic unknowns which can trigger the impossible. It's why peer or near peer war has been avoided. It will take Ukraine winning for a tac nuke to fly which is why the 99.99% is there. Luckily for the world they don't have a chance.
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post 1669189563 10-09-2022, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted By dabbmw2002⏩
I wonder if America would tolerate the same. Btw, no NATO country will strike Russia. That happens, we all die.
Of course no NATO nation would first strike Russia, NATO doesn't invade sovereign countries like Russia did. If the US invaded Canada and Mexico and Canada joined the poverty alliance Russian is part of, would you blame them?

Proximity matters in war. Having NATO on their doorsteps means NATO troops, NATO intel, NATO offensive and defensive weapons. The best Russian can do against us is lob stuff across the ocean.

Putin miscalculated bigly, it's apparent to everyone not completely under Putin's spell.
post 1669189823 10-09-2022, 01:12 PM
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#9078
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Original Ruckus
post 1669189943 10-09-2022, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted By dabbmw2002⏩
the US is NATO. NATO member countries have absolutely invaded sovereign countries. Russia is on the same mission the US was on in Iraq and Afghanistan- wiping out extremist ideology and promoting freedom
Uh, why did the US invade Iraq in the early 90's? And why again did we invade in the early 00's? Afghanistan was about terror attacks, was Ukraine promoting terror attacks in Russian and no one but you guys know? And I'm not trying to justify the 2nd Iraq war or Afghanistan, but there are major differences between Russia just deciding to roll into Ukraine.

Not even close to the same situation as Russia rolling into Ukraine for strategic reasons.
post 1669190203 10-09-2022, 01:18 PM
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#9080
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Russian security council meets tomorrow


Anyone got anything on Keiv? Looks like they got a volley.
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post 1669190233 10-09-2022, 01:19 PM
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#9081
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Originally Posted By CCCultistKilla⏩
Uh, why did the US invade Iraq in the early 90's? And why again did we invade in the early 00's? Afghanistan was about terror attacks, was Ukraine promoting terror attacks in Russian and no one but you guys know? And I'm not trying to justify the 2nd Iraq war or Afghanistan, but there are major differences between Russia just deciding to roll into Ukraine.

Not even close to the same situation as Russia rolling into Ukraine for strategic reasons.
We ignored Russia's grievances.

This could have been settled. Your side and 3 quarters of my side wanted this, badly.
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post 1669190303 10-09-2022, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
Do you acknowledge that Russia has made up European fuel sales to China and India in the 50-60% range and are projected to make up the remaining sales in the next year in developing countries?
Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
Still waiting for a morsel of a source about Russians magically making up for lost income from Europe - you know, the major source of their profits. EU was/is paying premium prices while India/China were/are buying petro for a penny on the dollar, and it's still physically impossible to summon pipelines and/or tankers so they can just press a button and redirect crap from A to B.
Originally Posted By memcop⏩
Siberia 2
Modified Siberian 1

Feel free to research both. I'm not going to argue or do any homework for you.

2023 projections on S1 alone are 35-40bn cm of natural gas alone.

Let me know when you want to point out another commodity. And for the record the discount is on petroleum.
Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
- Only 2 more years until they START building Power of Siberia 2.

- PoS 1 expected to deliver 18 bcm this year, projected 38 bcm by 2025.

- Meanwhile Russia delivered 150 bcm to Europe in 2021.

Crunch those numbers for us, boyo.
Originally Posted By memcop⏩
I'm not sure what your quick fact find "proves."

Russia has to beat 50% futures to avoid a collapse or 12% contraction.

Whatever you're trying to argue, you can do so until you're blue in the face. All you have to do is keep up with the projected contraction of the Russian market.
Well it proves that - as usual - you are full of chit.

I have quite literally done my "research" on the numbers you coughed up, turns out one of the pipelines is only on blueprints and the other one at projected full capacity 3 years down the line will maybe able to pump 1/5th of what gets pumped to Europe in any given year. Right now it's expected to pump a bit over 1/10th of last year's 150 bcm to Europe.

And after doing the research you suggested, you hit back with "not sure what your research "proves"" and the usual nonsensical word salad about futures and numbers based on your crystal ball or something.

Europe has been buying from them more than anyone else and paid more than anyone else. There is no conceivable way where they can just make up for that.
post 1669190393 10-09-2022, 01:22 PM
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#9083
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Original Ruckus
post 1669190703 10-09-2022, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
- Only 2 more years until they START building Power of Siberia 2.

- PoS 1 expected to deliver 18 bcm this year, projected 38 bcm by 2025.

- Meanwhile Russia delivered 150 bcm to Europe in 2021.

Crunch those numbers for us, boyo.
Power of Siberia 2 is sheduled to be completed in 2030. That was planned without western sanctions. Reality is, they already had trouble keeping the gas supply up in PoS 1 due to sanctions:

https://www.upstreamonline.com/produ...ny/2-1-1196845

Even with PoS 2, it will be less gas volume to China compared to Europe and they have to sell it to a way cheaper price.
post 1669190863 10-09-2022, 01:33 PM
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Maggots fleeing Crimea. Nature is healing

https://www.reddit.com/r/SlavaUkrayi...s_long_as_the/



Trains arent even moving

https://mobile.twitter.com/sami_viit...59019322626048
post 1669191003 10-09-2022, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted By MotorcycleBrah⏩
Power of Siberia 2 is sheduled to be completed in 2030. That was planned without western sanctions. Reality is, they already had trouble keeping the gas supply up in PoS 1 due to sanctions:

https://www.upstreamonline.com/produ...ny/2-1-1196845

Even with PoS 2, it will be less gas volume to China compared to Europe and they have to sell it to a way cheaper price.
Also this. Pipelines and whatnot are running on Western tech. Good luck building, running and maintaining them with all the sanctions.

Same goes for refineries.
post 1669191253 10-09-2022, 01:42 PM
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Original Ruckus
post 1669191313 10-09-2022, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop⏩
We ignored Russia's grievances.

This could have been settled. Your side and 3 quarters of my side wanted this, badly.
And one wonders why since it has brought nothing but suffering to the world.
post 1669191593 10-09-2022, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble⏩
Also this. Pipelines and whatnot are running on Western tech. Good luck building, running and maintaining them with all the sanctions.

Same goes for refineries.
This is a big aspect that many people aren't appreciating, the sanctions on O&G tech will deal a serious blow over the longer term as valves, specialty instruments, etc begin failing and can't be replaced.

And it ain't coming from China, we won't even use Chinese bolts on our projects. Much of this high level specialty stuff is engineered and manufactured in the West/Europe, Germany specifically being a huge source, and it is that way for a reason.
post 1669191723 10-09-2022, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
This is a big aspect that many people aren't appreciating, the sanctions on O&G tech will deal a serious blow over the longer term as valves, specialty instruments, etc begin failing and can't be replaced.

And it ain't coming from China, we won't even use Chinese bolts on our projects
It absolutely can come from China and will. And you use tons of stuff made in China and don't even realize it, you xenophobic piece of garbage.
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