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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
01-18-2023, 12:14 PM
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#1951
- Carbonfibre
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lmaoooo
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
01-18-2023, 12:24 PM
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#1952
- lordpatrick
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
No one in crypto ever heard of this ****ty exchange.lmaoooo
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
Good luck stopping Bitcoin though
01-18-2023, 12:24 PM
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#1953
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
That’s fine. I think they are wrong. Look at how market is trading and what is being said by Powell. I don’t think Powell even considers supporting the market until we are down closer to $350 or maybe even $330. At some point fundamentals will matter again.25 BPS hike for Feb is 99% lock
two more hikes at 25BPS after that than fed pause.
if Fed does 50BPS next meeting or any meeting after.
market is crashing. (99.9999 percent this is lock / market can't handle 50 bps at any point from now)
stock market has priced in 3 rate cuts by end of the year. hence why we hanging here at 4000 level.
they expect fed fund rates at 3.5% by end of year.
two more hikes at 25BPS after that than fed pause.
if Fed does 50BPS next meeting or any meeting after.
market is crashing. (99.9999 percent this is lock / market can't handle 50 bps at any point from now)
stock market has priced in 3 rate cuts by end of the year. hence why we hanging here at 4000 level.
they expect fed fund rates at 3.5% by end of year.
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01-18-2023, 12:37 PM
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#1954
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
someone is wrong.That’s fine. I think they are wrong. Look at how market is trading and what is being said by Powell. I don’t think Powell even considers supporting the market until we are down closer to $350 or maybe even $330. At some point fundamentals will matter again.
atm fund rate is 450 BPS.

bond market / market is saying cuts coming second half of year.
two weeks in to new year so way too early to make calls on anything.
market trading in this area could be brutal.
Originally Posted By lordpatrick⏩
btc is product of fed unlimited qe like majority of garbage stocks that did same.No one in crypto ever heard of this ****ty exchange.
Good luck stopping Bitcoin though
Good luck stopping Bitcoin though
what is btc backed with? nothing. regulation nothing.
ftx proved it.

01-19-2023, 08:39 AM
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#1955
- Venom08
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
you're both right and wrong. See, the US$ will rally so hard and to such heights, that it will break world economies who are indebted to us. This will cause the ultimate demise of the $ and it will no longer be the world's reserve currency. The reserve will become a basket of currencies in order to not get a repeat of the disaster that is to come.lmaoooo
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
US dollar is the big dog and if you believe anything else you might as well start buying doge coin.
KSA is dead without US.
Only thing you should take is that as long SPR refill is $70 that admin said, WTI should not fall through it.
DOJ reach is every corner of the world.
Keep believing in tulips.
US Dollar is never going to be replaced.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/18/bi...arrest-crypto/
01-19-2023, 08:52 AM
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#1956
- Carbonfibre
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how in the phuck is Netflix still high going into earnings.
password sharing crack down coming world wide in effect
ad supported plans should have potato amount of customers.
are they going to do it again.
go 30 percent down after hours
password sharing crack down coming world wide in effect
ad supported plans should have potato amount of customers.
are they going to do it again.
go 30 percent down after hours
01-19-2023, 09:51 AM
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#1957
01-19-2023, 10:57 AM
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#1958
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netflix isn't really high shorted stock
looking back from where it came from its up 110 percent since the massive rug pull after disaster earnings April
however as usual with pretty much any big stock / when there is panic .... whales big funds start to accumulate shares.
they were buying for 3 months under $200
than you get two decent earnings.
it goes up after October and hasn't stopped since they were hell bent to test the April disaster gap.
now big funds are covered for earnings they are okay even if netflix falls to $250 after hours.
I forgot that they report earnings today would have looked at it more closely tonight what market is looking for earnings wise.
at this point might throw option play on it toward close.

looking back from where it came from its up 110 percent since the massive rug pull after disaster earnings April
however as usual with pretty much any big stock / when there is panic .... whales big funds start to accumulate shares.
they were buying for 3 months under $200
than you get two decent earnings.
it goes up after October and hasn't stopped since they were hell bent to test the April disaster gap.
now big funds are covered for earnings they are okay even if netflix falls to $250 after hours.
I forgot that they report earnings today would have looked at it more closely tonight what market is looking for earnings wise.
at this point might throw option play on it toward close.

01-19-2023, 11:08 AM
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#1959
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I bought more puts today...how in the phuck is Netflix still high going into earnings.
password sharing crack down coming world wide in effect
ad supported plans should have potato amount of customers.
are they going to do it again.
go 30 percent down after hours
password sharing crack down coming world wide in effect
ad supported plans should have potato amount of customers.
are they going to do it again.
go 30 percent down after hours
I have a GOOD chunk of money invested in puts... tomorrow I maybe lol all the way to the bank or crying all the way back to the office lol
"Paper money is going away" - EM
01-19-2023, 11:23 AM
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#1960
Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
I'm going to have to cosign that, <3 and gl to you and yours.you're both right and wrong. See, the US$ will rally so hard and to such heights, that it will break world economies who are indebted to us. This will cause the ultimate demise of the $ and it will no longer be the world's reserve currency. The reserve will become a basket of currencies in order to not get a repeat of the disaster that is to come.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-19-2023, 11:47 AM
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#1961
Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
This may be an inevitably at some point, but I think we still have a ways to go (decades) and at least one war before we lose reserve currency status.you're both right and wrong. See, the US$ will rally so hard and to such heights, that it will break world economies who are indebted to us. This will cause the ultimate demise of the $ and it will no longer be the world's reserve currency. The reserve will become a basket of currencies in order to not get a repeat of the disaster that is to come.
Best case scenario IMO: Fed stays tight, and effectively causes a global recession, inflation settles and other central banks don't need to tighten as much, avoiding a crisis.
You can argue that the FOMC doesn't have the power, at least on paper, to back their sh*t up, but every flow chart still ends with the US Navy.
I hope the dollar spikes to 120. It will seem like the end of the world, but people will get over it.
01-19-2023, 11:50 AM
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#1962
- NestBrah
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Originally Posted By 401Delta⏩
Where do you see the USD going near term? It's been getting crushed recently.This may be an inevitably at some point, but I think we still have a ways to go (decades) and at least one war before we lose reserve currency status.
Best case scenario IMO: Fed stays tight, and effectively causes a global recession, inflation settles and other central banks don't need to tighten as much, avoiding a crisis.
You can argue that the FOMC doesn't have the power, at least on paper, to back their sh*t up, but every flow chart still ends with the US Navy.
I hope the dollar spikes to 120. It will seem like the end of the world, but people will get over it.
Best case scenario IMO: Fed stays tight, and effectively causes a global recession, inflation settles and other central banks don't need to tighten as much, avoiding a crisis.
You can argue that the FOMC doesn't have the power, at least on paper, to back their sh*t up, but every flow chart still ends with the US Navy.
I hope the dollar spikes to 120. It will seem like the end of the world, but people will get over it.
01-19-2023, 11:56 AM
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#1963
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
I don't know, but using history as a guide it would not surprise me to see it blast off over the next year.Where do you see the USD going near term? It's been getting crushed recently.
01-19-2023, 12:00 PM
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#1964
- Carbonfibre
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If USD blasts off this year.
stock market is phucked.
not hard to figure out why DXY pulled back from highs.
stock market priced in rate cuts toward end of year.
I did $290P for tmmrw.
Nothing crazy.
stock market is phucked.
not hard to figure out why DXY pulled back from highs.
stock market priced in rate cuts toward end of year.
Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
Good luck.I bought more puts today...
I have a GOOD chunk of money invested in puts... tomorrow I maybe lol all the way to the bank or crying all the way back to the office lol
I have a GOOD chunk of money invested in puts... tomorrow I maybe lol all the way to the bank or crying all the way back to the office lol
I did $290P for tmmrw.
Nothing crazy.
01-19-2023, 02:35 PM
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#1965
01-19-2023, 02:46 PM
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#1966
- Carbonfibre
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time to LIDAR
worthless put donation to Citadel securities
the key was they beat sub count
algos ran with that looks like.
rest was inline.
worthless put donation to Citadel securities
the key was they beat sub count
algos ran with that looks like.
rest was inline.
01-19-2023, 04:03 PM
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#1967
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Oh, it's going to be more than 50% when it happens, I'll probably make a cryptic post just before it begins lol.Fark. My NFLX put obliterated for now. When will it be mine turn for 50% NFLX drop
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-19-2023, 05:33 PM
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#1968
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Originally Posted By 401Delta⏩
During/after a recession, doesn't the USD usually significantly weaken?I don't know, but using history as a guide it would not surprise me to see it blast off over the next year.
01-20-2023, 12:45 AM
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#1969
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
I think it would ultimately depend how it unfolds globally, since it’s all relative to other currenciesDuring/after a recession, doesn't the USD usually significantly weaken?
01-20-2023, 07:55 AM
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#1970
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they grew sub count and provided good guidance for Q1 2023.
what do you want them to do
you are looking at things that whales don't care
they care about future growth
going into this earnings the only bet was that
netflix sub count wasn't going to grow
which would mean their growth is stalling
we got proven wrong
for now
they had sub growth in latin america / asia
it is what it is.


what do you want them to do
you are looking at things that whales don't care
they care about future growth
going into this earnings the only bet was that
netflix sub count wasn't going to grow
which would mean their growth is stalling
we got proven wrong
for now
they had sub growth in latin america / asia
it is what it is.


01-20-2023, 08:28 AM
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#1971
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Seems quite a few of the big cap and tech companies are getting new positive price targets that are still like 1/2 of their targets a few months ago
I strongly considered buying Netflix on the dip but meh, still don’t know enough about the business
I strongly considered buying Netflix on the dip but meh, still don’t know enough about the business
01-20-2023, 08:36 AM
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#1972
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^^^^^^^^^
Netflix buy time was that 3 month window when big boys were loading at 160-200 range. The fear stage when articles were going left and right netflix is phucked after April earnings.
Moment has passed.
Would not touch Netflix at these prices.
I would even expect Netflix to pull back eventually when earnings volatility drops.
Google cuts 6% workforce about 12k employees
Stock up due to shedding labor costs.
fed and Jpow somewhere goes high five.
also google has Deepmind rival that will probably shiit on chatgp coming (fyi google always had deepmind in the works but was just internal was not secret)
chatgp just forced their hand earlier
Netflix buy time was that 3 month window when big boys were loading at 160-200 range. The fear stage when articles were going left and right netflix is phucked after April earnings.
Moment has passed.
Would not touch Netflix at these prices.
I would even expect Netflix to pull back eventually when earnings volatility drops.
Google cuts 6% workforce about 12k employees
Stock up due to shedding labor costs.
fed and Jpow somewhere goes high five.
also google has Deepmind rival that will probably shiit on chatgp coming (fyi google always had deepmind in the works but was just internal was not secret)
chatgp just forced their hand earlier
01-20-2023, 10:00 AM
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#1973
01-20-2023, 10:05 AM
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#1974
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Was just looking at it now.Layoffs so far this month already 40% higher than previous high month (November)
Still tech jobs that out there.
Of course lag is real so by the time it show up on nfp numbers could take while.
Atm google going from 145K employees down to 130ish K is not earth shattering.



01-20-2023, 10:57 AM
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#1975
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6 months ago they couldn't find a tech. worker...
now they are firing people cause it is the cool thing to do - just wondering how this is going to play out in the long run for them
now they are firing people cause it is the cool thing to do - just wondering how this is going to play out in the long run for them
"Paper money is going away" - EM
01-20-2023, 11:43 AM
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#1976
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
It's going to work out just fine for the companies. I was shocked during the 10s how easy it was to make $200K+ in tech regardless of skill level. I knew dudes who weren't particularly bright (not dumb necessarily, but not even HS valedictorian) from average state schools that did leetcode for 3 months and were getting paid insane salaries and not even working that much. I totally understand there's a select few engineers who are worth their weight in gold and deserve to be paid what they did, but that's not 90% of tech workers, I'm sorry. It doesn't take an army of engineers/PMs getting paid obscene wages and benefits to A/B different color buttons on instagram to increase engagement or make ******** messenger slightly less buggy. These companies will be better off because they'll be less bloated and focused on money making ventures vs a bunch of useless "moonshots" as Google calls them.6 months ago they couldn't find a tech. worker...
now they are firing people cause it is the cool thing to do - just wondering how this is going to play out in the long run for them
now they are firing people cause it is the cool thing to do - just wondering how this is going to play out in the long run for them
I think the bigger problem is what's going to happen to the vast majority of workers getting laid off? They'll find some job for sure because coding is still useful, but it's not going to be at the salary levels they're used to. Further, there's a gigantic ecosystem of service workers supporting all these overpaid cucks that won't be as needed now that yuppies in tech can't casually spend $100 on bottomless brunch anymore. I know people keep saying that these job cuts are small relative to their sizes, but these changes flow downstream in ways that might not be priced into the market yet.
01-20-2023, 12:52 PM
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#1977
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
#starcucksIt's going to work out just fine for the companies. I was shocked during the 10s how easy it was to make $200K+ in tech regardless of skill level. I knew dudes who weren't particularly bright (not dumb necessarily, but not even HS valedictorian) from average state schools that did leetcode for 3 months and were getting paid insane salaries and not even working that much. I totally understand there's a select few engineers who are worth their weight in gold and deserve to be paid what they did, but that's not 90% of tech workers, I'm sorry. It doesn't take an army of engineers/PMs getting paid obscene wages and benefits to A/B different color buttons on instagram to increase engagement or make ******** messenger slightly less buggy. These companies will be better off because they'll be less bloated and focused on money making ventures vs a bunch of useless "moonshots" as Google calls them.
I think the bigger problem is what's going to happen to the vast majority of workers getting laid off? They'll find some job for sure because coding is still useful, but it's not going to be at the salary levels they're used to. Further, there's a gigantic ecosystem of service workers supporting all these overpaid cucks that won't be as needed now that yuppies in tech can't casually spend $100 on bottomless brunch anymore.I know people keep saying that these job cuts are small relative to their sizes, but these changes flow downstream in ways that might not be priced into the market yet.
I think the bigger problem is what's going to happen to the vast majority of workers getting laid off? They'll find some job for sure because coding is still useful, but it's not going to be at the salary levels they're used to. Further, there's a gigantic ecosystem of service workers supporting all these overpaid cucks that won't be as needed now that yuppies in tech can't casually spend $100 on bottomless brunch anymore.I know people keep saying that these job cuts are small relative to their sizes, but these changes flow downstream in ways that might not be priced into the market yet.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
01-20-2023, 01:10 PM
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#1978
- Carbonfibre
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squeeze from hell on
ouch
market be crazy.
ouch
market be crazy.
01-20-2023, 01:22 PM
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#1979
A killer's code, secrets untold, how we bury stock with a rose
To its wake we send a wreath that explodes
Beneath us they sleep with the Reaper, ass(ets) sold
That's how real J Pow keep it, to him I owe
Nine milli ready, nine brokers, nine parterres
Attack 'em like Freddy, then we toastin' over spaghetti
I share withcha drama, you share with mine
That's how we killin' two birds at the same time
Send my enemy's ear, I'll send your enemy's finger
With a pinkie ring, that's just a present my misca
Not for popularity reasons, but for the love of the art
And you my heart, I leave securities bleedin'
Cause we keep it death for a death
Life for a life, murder for a murder
I got you and it's vice versa

To its wake we send a wreath that explodes
Beneath us they sleep with the Reaper, ass(ets) sold
That's how real J Pow keep it, to him I owe
Nine milli ready, nine brokers, nine parterres
Attack 'em like Freddy, then we toastin' over spaghetti
I share withcha drama, you share with mine
That's how we killin' two birds at the same time
Send my enemy's ear, I'll send your enemy's finger
With a pinkie ring, that's just a present my misca
Not for popularity reasons, but for the love of the art
And you my heart, I leave securities bleedin'
Cause we keep it death for a death
Life for a life, murder for a murder
I got you and it's vice versa

I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-20-2023, 02:31 PM
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#1980
- camaleom
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
this is an oversimplification of what goes on behind changing color in an applicationI'm sorry. It doesn't take an army of engineers/PMs getting paid obscene wages and benefits to A/B different color buttons on instagram to increase engagement or make ******** messenger slightly less buggy. These companies will be better off because they'll be less bloated and focused on money making ventures vs a bunch of useless "moonshots" as Google calls them.

it will blow your mind to understand what goes behind the scenes behind a change even the simplest one.
"Paper money is going away" - EM
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