Legit hope it continues upward for your (and other's) sake


Selfishly also hope it goes down for my sake tho

Well I'll let this one go if you have more on the line.

Grabbed a bunch of SQQQ late in the afternoon. Can't quite figure out why market is rallying other than people being lazy long. Good economic numbers means the fed has cover to press its raising rates campaign. Growth multiples are historically nuts right now. Recession is coming. Surely this is a bull trap before we trend down towards a capitulation moment and bottom. Right?!?

Yeah probably.

Have puts on tsla or think it poses bearish sentiment on oil?

Srs question. Why did you buy sqqq if you don't know why market is rallying?

I want to buy it or something else as a hedge against my oil holdings. Other stuff is an option, but I've put a chitton of work into understanding EVs and Tesla

Oil stocks are going to be paying fat dividends from here to infinity since oil futures show $65-70 range till 2024.

Volatility has come down metric tons on oil.

CVX monster buyback just re affirmed it that oil stocks have cash that they don't know what to do with.

Actual oil stocks thought should be toward the high side and at peak levels. (would be shocked if they return 10+ percent returns this year)






As for Tesla.

Driven heavily by options no dildo chart or moon cycle chart can account that tsla has the second highest option volume after SPY.

Not even QQQ can match Tesla option volume anymore.

If you want to play Tesla do it via stock and wait for pull back to test low of $100.

Elon will be selling Tesla shares again.

Personal opinion stick with something more stable.

If you want exposure outside oil wait for pull back on Disney / Costco etc. Get some Canadian bank exposure.

Gonna need next weeks FOMC to confirm.

When Jerome gives some sorta guidance.

Think media (I mean funds they feed crap for media to harp on about) got everyone tricked that recession is coming / hell is upon us.

Its more and more looking like soft landing is possible.

If the yield inversion ends, market bottom will be set.


That doesn't mean market won't pull back but if the 200 daily is established firmly as bottom, that might be it. (only way it goes to hell atm is some black swan happening, good luck praying for that)



If next week after FOMC (not day of but the days and week that follows) you get buying into SP 4200-4300. You ain't seeing 3600 without black swan event this year.

Should be aiming to buy dip at 4000 on 200 daily.

Also no market isn't going to ATH. Its very possible range ends up being 4400-3900 all year.

Msft said flat growth this year, shouldn't expect much from others like amzn etc.


edit: not financial advice.


just observation.

when you account for supply constraints healing / commodity prices calming / inflation slowing / job losses being absorbed.

I guess my mistake is assuming the market should act rationally when we all know it doesn't. To flesh out my position more accurately:

I think the market is overbought. Real disposable income dropped $1T in 2022 - the second most ever only behind 1932. Rising rates and increasing unemployment won't help. Inflation seems to be rather sticky. Getting from 8% to 5% is a hell of a lot easier than 5% to 2%. Interest rate increases lag 6-8 months on the economy. We're just now seeing the impact of the rate hikes that began in summer 2022. We were at 2% in summer 2022. The impact of the hike from 2% to 4.5% is just starting to be felt. Inventories are expanding, consumption and savings are shrinking. Household debt is astonishingly high. People of nearly all income levels are adjusting their habits to consume and spend less - my peers all make $200k+ annually and are adjusting their habits, just imagine what tradies are doing. As interest rates rise, so too does the cost of debt servicing. Our deficit and debt is going to explode even more. A debt death spiral is unlikely in the short term but certainly not impossible.

Everyone is high on the idea that we're gonna have a soft landing and everything is going to work out. The reality is much more grim. I believe as the negative macro-data keeps coming out, people will sober up and sell. This is a bull trap. Do you think the nasdaq should be worth 10% more now than it was on January 5, 2023? I don't. Everyone is acting positive and greedy right now. That's the perfect time to sell/short.

I agree with all this but you're trying to front run a reversal with a 3x leveraged etf. You're playing with fire. GL...but not before I make my money and exit.

stock market is not the economy.

there is built in speculation into stocks.

should there be pull back from over bought levels, yeah without doubt.

atm I can tell you that this market is running on 2 percent rate cut coming this fall/winter. (could they be wrong, who the hell knows if something offside happens market atm is not prepared for it)

this is exact reason why stocks have been pumping and without zero fear.

btw reason market has said fu to the fed atm is that they know that fed knows if they do 50BPS hike next week or any meeting after we getting hard landing and recession.

they are so confident they got fed cornered that odds of 25bps next week and one last hike March is being bet on atm.



SQQQ /TQQQ you better know what you're doing. (maybe you're pro trader - that shiit is risky)

next week FOMC could crush you.



(edit; again personal opinion, got be careful what I say here just my opinion ////////// should delete some of these posts had few too many drinks via work dinner lmao)

wait for fomc and see what happens

I remember you talking about shop long time ago.

This is really good candidate imo.

On my own watch list / missed this move and will wait now for pull back / plan on entering into long hold category for my portfolio.

Shop has been consolidating for year almost at $25-30.

If you can get shop in high 30 low 40 range after some retest might be worth shot.

well

Need TSLA stay under 165 and 170 today.

what you think carbon

wait till afternoon when decay kicks in hard on tesla 0dte/ atm doesn't look good.


they are trying real hard to get it to $170 calls.

huge interest in those 170 calls.







.................................



just aside


recession when gdp yesterday is positive ? whatt

I will have whatever the hell they are smoking.

Jerome could be mean next week but so far looks like he is going to cave in.



https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp-...ears-loom.html

Broad market rally obscures the huge shift that has occurred since November 2021, NASDAQ still down like 30% and XLE up 60%

Feels like the market has now completed one reset phase, IMO next up is the higher-for-longer rate reality setting in. Bad earnings start to show up, economic damage becomes apparent, Fed starts cutting rates after a few more hikes and then a pause, and the market grinds down with the rate cuts then being deployed to re-stimulate economic activity.

^ Destor.

I was on camp Fed but once big players started making bets that fed is going to cave in. They got them cornered.

Next week Jerome will have to bring hell fire to stop market front running rate cuts.






squeeze on Tesla atm via options.

where have you heard this before lol

fundamentals no care

calls to oblivion.

Most of what CarbonFibre has been saying lately is wrong, some things he has said don't make any sense whatsoever.

I'm not saying that to dunk on CF again, I'm saying it so you don't let him direct you to damnation, not even loling.

If you want to invest, invest in understanding, otherwise hire a professional.

Lol.

Why would that surprise you?

Some people predicted a fake recession, positive 3rd and 4th quarter GDP followed by a real recession, I found a guy saying so on this very forum:

I made that post 05-24-2022 lol.

I’m team 50bps. Let’s make ‘em fuggin cry

Inflation can’t be lowered it has to be smashed.

No one is under the impression anyone here is giving trading advice. We are all just speculating and trying to make sense of the madness. Don't try to silence ppl unless your goal is for this corner of the dying gay indian bb forum to die completely.

The market really should be high though, earnings are not yet reflecting a bad economy. The economy is still strong, rates are still going up to cool it, and people yammering on about recession right now are likely those who would benefit from rates coming down in an economy that is already strong.

Rate cuts will happen when the economy is noticeably weaker, and that's when the market should head lower because the weaker economy will be reflected in lower corporate profits and earnings thus lower valuations. Rate cuts will be brought in to stimulate the economy back up, that will lead to multiple expansion as earnings compress, the bottom should be where those two intersect



When we look back, I don't think this will be all that different from previous rate cycles

that guy has mental illness.

nothing of any value has he has ever posted.

you would get better trading advice from leftcicle.

absorbs everything said in this forum and comes in later and says told you so or you're wrong.

if he is such genius he would be flexing his amazing gains or working at Citadel and not here on misc like incel.

he is forever on ignore and could give thiis shiit what he thinks.




now as for market

if anyone was 100 percent shot caller they wouldn't be on misc and everyone would be day trader.

market conditions can flip / mean reversion always wins

Market sure calling that bluff atm.


Odds of 25BPS next week is now 97% and no rate hike is now 3%.



I am sure there is some betting app that will take your 50BPS hike bet / odds are probably 1/10,000 that hits.

The only EV play I am in is Fisker, poverty number of shares, best believe I’m selling this tickle squeeze once I am back in the green, currently it is up 25% today

True. I’m probably impatient trying to buy puts right now. Meh well.

Lcid pumping. Already doubled. My OG meme stock lmao

LCID up over 90% fuk

Apparently there are rumors swirling of a Saudi + Lucid buyout

Holy

Trading halted

AMZN gains hbnggggg. Targeting $120 for earnings next week