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Forum Β» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1676164053 01-30-2023, 09:23 AM
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#2131
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Isn't there another earnings report in March?

My cost basis is $8.50 or so and I'm a bit optimistic it might reach that by then
Every 3 months tug. So late April or early May.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1676167483 01-30-2023, 10:04 AM
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#2132
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Just looking at past earnings..

5/24/2021
8/12/2021
11/10/2021
3/1/2022
5/10/2022
8/2/2022
11/1/2022

Idk, seems possible to see another before April

Edit: I sold calls on my shares as well for April, a move this large will have pullback. Realized that I'd reach my cost basis if they end up ITM by expiry
Fully covered myself too. Sold a few more Feb $6.5 for $64, some April $7.5 for between $42-54, and May $8 for $58. Feel good about where these sit. I think the play was selling all Feb $6.5 and having them expire with $5-10 value, but idk. This seems a little safer and easier to roll.

Looking to sell some $6 CSP as well just to cover my bases. We shall see.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1676168053 01-30-2023, 10:13 AM
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#2133
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My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?
post 1676173793 01-30-2023, 11:31 AM
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#2134
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?
What is the timeframe? Just trying to get the highest gain in the class? Lol
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1676175143 01-30-2023, 11:56 AM
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#2135
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?
For fun I would do $SPXU, but I'd wait to see what happens at the end of this week.
Pureblood
post 1676185363 01-30-2023, 02:23 PM
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#2136
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It'll take a few more bad days like this to erase all my gainz from last week

How you boyos think the market will react to the fed this week?
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1676186483 01-30-2023, 02:39 PM
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#2137
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I think the usual will happen, folks buy a lot of options expecting big movement but nothing will happen, what I want to happen is 50pts increase and the market crashes 😈
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1676187053 01-30-2023, 02:47 PM
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#2138
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
What is the timeframe? Just trying to get the highest gain in the class? Lol
Till April. Yep, just the highest gains
post 1676187273 01-30-2023, 02:50 PM
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#2139
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I think the usual will happen, folks buy a lot of options expecting big movement but nothing will happen, what I want to happen is 50pts increase and the market crashes
The market will hit a bottom when the rate cuts come, not the hikes. Mark my words!

Either that or the total opposite happens
post 1676206993 01-30-2023, 08:14 PM
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#2140
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
Till April. Yep, just the highest gains
Personally I like more traditional bank stocks with lesser exposure to mortgage/refi and M/A activity. I like JPM as a large cap bank and Sofi is my go to small cap/growth bank choice.

Amazon seems like a decent choice.

It’s hard to say with such a short timeframe lol.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1676237273 01-31-2023, 08:51 AM
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#2141
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The market seems springloaded AF right now. Gonna move bigly the second half of the week.
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post 1676245683 01-31-2023, 10:49 AM
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#2142
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Why did schwab completely destroy their platform layout? It was fine before now my eyes are bleeding
Originally Posted By BuckNakedinBama⏩
The market seems springloaded AF right now. Gonna move bigly the second half of the week.
I'm getting this feeling too
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1676260153 01-31-2023, 02:36 PM
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#2143
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Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1676265253 01-31-2023, 03:56 PM
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#2144
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Is it time to buy more China stocks?
post 1676271483 01-31-2023, 05:25 PM
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#2145
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!
Markets pumped today particularly towards the end. I have to imagine the meeting info got leaked somewhere and markets got bought.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1676282473 01-31-2023, 08:00 PM
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#2146
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!
Anyone else have a bad feeling about H2 of this year because of this? I know the argument against this is that these layoffs are small in the grand scheme of things. But from what I can tell, earnings have been mediocre, guidance has been soft to revised downward, and companies keep cutting costs/pulling back investment. Sometimes this is a death spiral where people spend less, lay off workers to save cash, these laid off folks cut back their spending, which leads to even less spending and more layoffs, etc. I just have a feeling we're going to see a pretty bad sell off again when all this lack of spending starts filtering through the economy.

I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...
post 1676283923 01-31-2023, 08:22 PM
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#2147
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Anyone else have a bad feeling about H2 of this year because of this? I know the argument against this is that these layoffs are small in the grand scheme of things. But from what I can tell, earnings have been mediocre, guidance has been soft to revised downward, and companies keep cutting costs/pulling back investment. Sometimes this is a death spiral where people spend less, lay off workers to save cash, these laid off folks cut back their spending, which leads to even less spending and more layoffs, etc. I just have a feeling we're going to see a pretty bad sell off again when all this lack of spending starts filtering through the economy.

I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...
Joe said high unemployment is good for the economy and it’s going to be good for everyone! He wouldn’t lie right?

I’m also loling hard at the concept of paying my debts off ASAP Dave Ramsey style. Currently all the cash I’ve got is earning more in a dam Sofi savings account than I’d save paying a <3% home, 3.5% vehicle, or 3.3-3.5%student loan (I do have 5% loans too, but they are all paused till August anyway ayy fuking lmao). I’ve got a pretty decent cash cushion just because I’ve got the money for both the student loans and the car in the bank/Ibonds.

It is a little scary that before I started the hospital overnight gig my savings rate from work income had gone down a LOT in the last year even though I’ve cut a lot of expenses out from my discretionary budget. Cost of living is a beast. I should try to calculate the change I’ve experienced from what my expenses were via what they are now.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1676306143 02-01-2023, 05:40 AM
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#2148
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!
Just lol @ having a boss as a grown man.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1676306283 02-01-2023, 05:44 AM
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#2149
  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...
It's an excellent scenario when you're a net buyer of stocks, which I'm guessing most of us are in here.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1676316603 02-01-2023, 08:49 AM
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#2150
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post 1676318953 02-01-2023, 09:25 AM
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#2151
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Michael Burry ominous "Sell" tweet from yesterday.



But looks like he deleted all of his tweets today lol

mo e
post 1676319113 02-01-2023, 09:28 AM
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#2152
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That's Burry's modus operandi, he has deleted/deactivated his account many times iirc as well
post 1676326653 02-01-2023, 11:06 AM
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#2153
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
It's an excellent scenario when you're a net buyer of stocks, which I'm guessing most of us are in here.
I'm a DCAer at heart, but it's scary considering that if I were to lose my job, I can't invest when times are bad (aka when I want to get in) and I have a feeling things are going to get worse before they get better. Obviously, I can't let this fear dictate my life, but it just seems crazy to me that we're above 4K on the S&P yet everyday you see headlines of megacorps cutting jobs.

If Powell continues to be super hawkish, I think we could see some stagflation-like scenarios. Not saying it's going to be quite as bad as it was in the 70s, but I don't really see inflation in most items we care about (food, housing, energy, etc.) going down anytime soon, but unemployment could tick way higher if we keep hiking up rates.
post 1676330313 02-01-2023, 11:50 AM
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#2154
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The Fed I think is mostly focused on PCE, but cutting rates any time soon would almost certainly mean inflation would spike up to new highs. Inflation coming down needs to be supported by the unemployment side of things to prevent the spike, that's how it went back in The Great Inflation iirc.


They just still don't have any credibility
post 1676333163 02-01-2023, 12:39 PM
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#2155
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Powell says they are "not yet sufficiently restrictive." Market ain't gonna like that, but I am!
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post 1676333283 02-01-2023, 12:40 PM
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#2156
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Same speech as last time
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1676333643 02-01-2023, 12:44 PM
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#2157
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AMD is unstoppable.

sold @ 81.76 thinking it would pull back some.
post 1676333813 02-01-2023, 12:46 PM
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#2158
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Really surprised at the way the market is responding to this speech. I'm losing thousands of dollars a minute. lol @ me
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post 1676333933 02-01-2023, 12:48 PM
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#2159
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Originally Posted By BuckNakedinBama⏩
Really surprised at the way the market is responding to this speech. I'm losing thousands of dollars a minute. lol @ me
The beginning of the speech was all exactly as expected, and now hes noting more positives. I bought back in right after it was right as expected.
ASOT Crew
BLM Crew (Bang Local MILFs)
post 1676334163 02-01-2023, 12:51 PM
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#2160
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Originally Posted By BuckNakedinBama⏩
Really surprised at the way the market is responding to this speech. I'm losing thousands of dollars a minute. lol @ me
Everyone was expecting "tough talk."

Y/Y inflation numbers will drop bigly again this month (obviously, given that the prior y/y for jan was massive), and it will be rockets to the moon.

Fundamentals will remain disconnected from valuations.

Remember Burry was right in 2008, but it took a lot longer for things to unravel than what he was expecting.
mo e
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