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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1676334913 02-01-2023, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Everyone was expecting "tough talk."

Y/Y inflation numbers will drop bigly again this month (obviously, given that the prior y/y for jan was massive), and it will be rockets to the moon.

Fundamentals will remain disconnected from valuations.

Remember Burry was right in 2008, but it took a lot longer for things to unravel than what he was expecting.
True
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post 1676335093 02-01-2023, 01:08 PM
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#2162
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Mind blown at watching the market take off rn

Also disappointed in Powell, just pump i rates 100 points already. 25 is a joke, a dozen large eggs are $8 at my local grocery store now FFS
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post 1676335933 02-01-2023, 01:19 PM
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The market should be high right now
post 1676337883 02-01-2023, 01:53 PM
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remember when I said this feels different.

everyone fell in love with 200DMA and trend line resistance.

Jerome needed to go scorched earth today for market to even care.

front running / fomo >>>>>> JPow.



market is crazy stretched atm.

however holy hell did buy the dip crowd get all lubed up after today.
post 1676338493 02-01-2023, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted By hardestgainer⏩
Mind blown at watching the market take off rn

Also disappointed in Powell, just pump i rates 100 points already. 25 is a joke, a dozen large eggs are $8 at my local grocery store now FFS
Pure speculation: I wonder if he is trying to strike a balance given the increasing number of layoffs.

Sad state of main street when unprofitable companies are so addicted to investor money that they start layoffs once the free money party ends. Wonder if he is trying to stop the layoffs by signaling that the free money party can start up again.

Investor money comes from pensions, endowment funds, etc btw. Pensions being used to fund perpetually unprofitable companies. At some point when it all blows up not only do people lose jobs, but people lose their retirements, public safety nets go down, etc. Scary stuff.
mo e
post 1676338833 02-01-2023, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
remember when I said this feels different.

everyone fell in love with 200DMA and trend line resistance.

Jerome needed to go scorched earth today for market to even care.

front running / fomo >>>>>> JPow.



market is crazy stretched atm.

however holy hell did buy the dip crowd get all lubed up after today.
How high do you think this can go? And what do you think will happen next?
post 1676341893 02-01-2023, 02:56 PM
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I dunno how high this goes. (If I did would be trading full time. )

There is lot of stretch atm.

You need apple/amzn/goog to say something to bring this back otherwise they can keep pumping.

META had earnings just now and announced $40B buyback. Stock pumping hard atm.



Today market move had ton of squeeze built in because speculators just can't get enough of risky stuff into FOMC via puts ... puts on everything.

I always go WTF when I see SQQQ/TQQQ being thrown around.
post 1676342123 02-01-2023, 02:59 PM
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META smashed it on earnings.

Hope that's a sign of things to come tomorrow for AMZN, GOOGL and AAPL.
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post 1676343313 02-01-2023, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Pure speculation: I wonder if he is trying to strike a balance given the increasing number of layoffs.

Sad state of main street when unprofitable companies are so addicted to investor money that they start layoffs once the free money party ends. Wonder if he is trying to stop the layoffs by signaling that the free money party can start up again.

Investor money comes from pensions, endowment funds, etc btw. Pensions being used to fund perpetually unprofitable companies. At some point when it all blows up not only do people lose jobs, but people lose their retirements, public safety nets go down, etc. Scary stuff.
I’m a little puzzled at the decision, but I might actually listen to what he said later tonight and see if his logic and explanation makes sense to me. Like you said there are a lot of pension liabilities that will be very problematic for many legacy corporations with rates spiking higher and the fixed income portion of their portfolios getting absolutely rinsed.
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post 1676350643 02-01-2023, 05:25 PM
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got chance to watch Jerome video from today.

gave lot of fuel to buyers saying that he sees disinflation.

Pow totally ignored this part.

He could have directed anger at this part and instead said well its fine.




this basically provided the fed will pause hike crowd huge green button to buy today.




so now comes the big question which month will CPI not keep diving to 2%.

you sure as shiiit know that inflation isn't going to nose dive just like that.

that is where real sell will come.

pencil in

Feb. 14, 2023 CPI data

Mar. 14, 2023 CPI data

Apr. 12, 2023 CPI data

May 10, 2023 CPI data

Jun. 13, 2023 CPI data


any of those dates go wrong against current market where they called Fed bluff today and are trying to run away with it.

sell comes.
post 1676351743 02-01-2023, 05:43 PM
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We’re still in the early days IMO, this market is fundamentally no different from what it was during the previous rate hike cycles.




This is not investment advice, I have 0 positions tied to this

In other developments, I think the real economy in Alberta is finally in for some good years
post 1676357263 02-01-2023, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
We’re still in the early days IMO, this market is fundamentally no different from what it was during the previous rate hike cycles.




This is not investment advice, I have 0 positions tied to this

In other developments, I think the real economy in Alberta is finally in for some good years
I think he let it slip today and came up way way too dovish.

Imo next FOMC March if the SP 500 is sitting at 4400-4500.

Scorched earth is coming down on market.

The real catalyst for 2023 is inflation doing uturn and fed going early to pivot by making policy mistake. Today we got bit of preview of Fed doing policy mistake.

Right now fed funds rates are showing March fomc is last 25BPS hike.
post 1676357743 02-01-2023, 07:45 PM
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#2173
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
We’re still in the early days IMO, this market is fundamentally no different from what it was during the previous rate hike cycles.




This is not investment advice, I have 0 positions tied to this

In other developments, I think the real economy in Alberta is finally in for some good years
Imagine what happens if inflation is not handled by what they’ve got currently. It’s unlikely but what if they decide they gotta do another 50bp hike? Markets will melt tf down lol
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post 1676358303 02-01-2023, 07:54 PM
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#2174
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Rob they are never ever and I mean ever going to do something that they didn't telegraph the market before hand.

I told you that this WSJ reporter has direct line to Fed.

Every single thing Fed needs to signal to market they do through this guy.


This guys nick name is the "Fed whisperer"

https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos



Here is your guideline for next fomc.

One more hike March 25bps already locked in.





So now till next FOMC you will need

CPI to go up a lot

PCE

NFP this Friday etc


to be shiit for those fund futures rates to price in anything but 25BPS hike.
post 1676360983 02-01-2023, 08:40 PM
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I’m tempted to put together a compilation of every time it was implied or almost straight up said that the Fed has zero credibility and Powell’s body language shows frustration before he responds very diplomatically

Look at him after this reporter suggests they would have considered pausing here, right when she says the word “pause”





There are seriously so many barbs thrown at them in these CNBC clips
post 1676361803 02-01-2023, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted By monty097⏩
META smashed it on earnings.

Hope that's a sign of things to come tomorrow for AMZN, GOOGL and AAPL.
Oh chit. I forgot I have Jan 2024 calls on META. Got them a while ago when it was at lows haha

Now for amzn to smash earnings for those calls of mine to skyrocket too
post 1676361903 02-01-2023, 08:54 PM
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Meta did not smash earnings.

Not even close / they missed cause metaverse is dumpster fire.

Only reason is up because of $40B buyback.

That is double than what they did last year.
post 1676362473 02-01-2023, 09:05 PM
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Buybacks are probably gonna be the sole reason any companies outperform right now relative to the broader market

Any company that has enough cash flow to buy back significant amounts of stock at the existing valuation, that’ll likely be the only driver for upwards EPS and direct returns to investors in this environment. Hence why stuff like O&G is doing well, they’re buying back insane amounts.
post 1676368393 02-01-2023, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Buybacks are probably gonna be the sole reason any companies outperform right now relative to the broader market

Any company that has enough cash flow to buy back significant amounts of stock at the existing valuation, that’ll likely be the only driver for upwards EPS and direct returns to investors in this environment. Hence why stuff like O&G is doing well, they’re buying back insane amounts.
I’d be so fukkin mad if I got laid off from FB and they told me “sorry market conditions are tough gotta let you go because we can’t afford yah” then turn around and see they are buying back $40 BILLION dollars of shares to help enrich their shareholders. I suppose most employees probably will benefit from that as well, but probably not enough to make me happy if I lost my job
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post 1676380413 02-02-2023, 06:11 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I’d be so fukkin mad if I got laid off from FB and they told me “sorry market conditions are tough gotta let you go because we can’t afford yah” then turn around and see they are buying back $40 BILLION dollars of shares to help enrich their shareholders. I suppose most employees probably will benefit from that as well, but probably not enough to make me happy if I lost my job
reason number 1 why the younger generation is not working that hard... it's not about a mission, a vision or a culture... it is about shareholders and revenue...

you are a number and they will let u go in a heart beat regardless of your position or status inside a company if they need to keep propping the numbers...

the new thing is the tech. sector is to get rid of middle management (which in some cases make total sense) Ex. my manager report to a manager that report to a manager that report to a director that report to a director that report to a director that report to the CTO...

mind numbing bureaucracy

and I can't move a finger until the CTO approves my enterprise initiative so why we need so many layer if I still depend on the CTO?
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1676380593 02-02-2023, 06:17 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I’d be so fukkin mad if I got laid off from FB and they told me “sorry market conditions are tough gotta let you go because we can’t afford yah” then turn around and see they are buying back $40 BILLION dollars of shares to help enrich their shareholders. I suppose most employees probably will benefit from that as well, but probably not enough to make me happy if I lost my job
Fukn lol I hadn't even thought about that dynamic
post 1676382603 02-02-2023, 07:08 AM
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why is that even thought.

capitalism 101.

you mean nothing to them and were always nothing to them.

shareholders >>>> some replaceable employee that is worth nothing.






market is gapping up again.


only apple / google / amazon can stop this insane FOMO.

if apple today announces buyback look out...no matter what results on their quarter.



btw shell made 100 billion this past quarter think about that for second and than go look at gas at the pump.
post 1676383503 02-02-2023, 07:35 AM
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Seems O&G companies will continue printing cash for the time being too, best hedge against it is owning the companies and letting them disburse those profits back to you


Pushing down prices for consumers hinges on allowing the industry to keep up with investment and not demonizing the fuk out of it. Unfortunately based on what has happened over the last decade, the consensus is that not nearly enough has been done.

Cenovus projects $70billion spent over the next 30 years just on decarbonizing Alberta's industry.
post 1676383753 02-02-2023, 07:42 AM
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Up 400% on META calls. Up 70% on the AMZN calls I got last week.
BABA is continuing its decline and I am patiently waiting for $98 so I can buy back the calls I sold.
post 1676384493 02-02-2023, 07:57 AM
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rotation out of value to growth starting to pick up steam


unreal thanks Pow for inflation round 2.


energy stocks gonna get whacked if this is real.



UPST is super close to short squeeze

like almost there over $25 and could get spicy
post 1676386103 02-02-2023, 08:26 AM
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How are energy stocks gonna get whacked when the companies are making profits like these? They're just waiting for valuations to drop before plowing mountains more cash into buybacks

Bring it on, that's likely a buying opportunity
post 1676386393 02-02-2023, 08:33 AM
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upst and afrm about to blow up
"Paper money is going away" - EM
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Cot damn. UPST is now my largest holding after this morning lmfao
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1676386763 02-02-2023, 08:39 AM
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#2189
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
How are energy stocks gonna get whacked when the companies are making profits like these? They're just waiting for valuations to drop before plowing mountains more cash into buybacks

Bring it on, that's likely a buying opportunity
The only thing keeping energy stocks up is buy backs.

CVX did what record buy back and still profit taking happening.

I am just saying you're watching rotation again out of value to growth.


Massive massive mistake by Fed yesterday.



Great for my long portfolio since I am tech heavy.


But this is going to bite if inflation picks up again.
post 1676386813 02-02-2023, 08:40 AM
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The reset of expectations is almost comical lol

Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
The only thing keeping energy stocks up is buy backs.

CVX did what record buy back and still profit taking happening.

I am just saying you're watching rotation again out of value to growth.


Massive massive mistake by Fed yesterday.



Great for my long portfolio since I am tech heavy.


But this is going to bite if inflation picks up again.
Eh the market just doesn’t believe the Fed IMO, I don’t think much changed with the latest meeting. The Fed still has zero credibility, and the market is overly optimistic as usual.

This is how the previous rate hike cycles have gone, almost to a T now. It’s more drawn-out than I would have figured, but here we are.
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