if he is down 40% that quick

has to be shorter than 2024

My bad I only looked into the first one you listed

Looking at STR now and it looks pretty fukin cool

How many 1/4's worth of divvy payments you got from it so far? And has it stayed @ .72 cents per share?

Repped

Haven’t gotten any STR divy yet, I got shares when they merged in December and bought some more a week or so ago. I trust it when I had MNRL (prior to merge) it was steady and consistent and increased since I bought in 2020

Yes. January 2024

Warren Buffett’s annual letter for 2022

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf

An unusual quarter for him. Mind blowing their funds are gonna start earning 4-6b yearly alone not to mention the $25b+ they keep profiting yearly and the buybacks pushing earnings higher as well.

Still think they acquire the rest of OXY although starting to wonder if they’ll wait to get it closer to $50-55.

@venom that’s what I thought. And strike like $200? Would you double down on a lower strike or if you had to choose would you just go further out on the calendar?

Almost $130billion in cash, patience might end up producing great returns for them if things go the way history suggests they will


I have some strong reservations about what will happen with inflation coming up. Mentioned it a few times here but there are big contract negotiations happening right now in the real economy that will result in massive amounts of new wages pumped into people's accounts, in industries that employ huge numbers of people doing critical stuff like infrastructure construction.

My one union is looking at +16% just in wages over the next 3 years, plus higher subsistence for out-of-town jobs (feeds into rent/real estate), higher other perks. Another one, +22.2% over five years just in wages. That's happening in this province, I imagine it's happening in other provinces and south of the border across unions. Wages for white collar workers responded more quickly, but I don't think we've even seen the results of this stuff yet and these are industries that constitute very significant chunks of the labour force.


In a perfect world we'll see prices come down while wages go up, but I'm not sure brahs. Feels like this stuff is gonna produce upward pressure on prices as people suddenly get bigly increasing purchasing power for the first time in like a decade. It's gonna feed into real estate, into personal consumption, and it might happen quickly as people are chomping at the bit for the pay bumps after losing so much in recent years.

I think white collar got bumps up through 2022. I think those are gone and as a group white collar wages will flatline for a couple years while companies reorganize. Turns out if you shout from the rooftops “I’m overpaid everyone come do what I’m doing” it over saturated the field and suddenly wages stop growing and the amount of work expected goes up dramatically

I tend to agree with this. My uneducated prediction is that we will continue to see an upward spike in wages, which will pressure companies' margins. There'll be certain companies that are able to pass on these wage increases to customers, but there'll be a lot of companies that can't and will underperform/remain stagnant as a result. The TL;DR is essentially that the winner-take-all type of markets we've been seeing will get worse. You either create a product that people love and will allocate budget to, or you see your margin and cash flows get eroded away by inflation.

I also think this next decade will be about the "real" economy. I think there's a fundamental disinventment in stuff we really need (i.e. manufacturing, infrastructure, healthcare, energy, etc.) and this decade will be about investment in those areas. That's not to say tech will go away completely, and I do think AI will eventually be the force that brings inflation back into check, but I think that's where investors will pile money in until rates go down again. I predict rates won't go down for a while and won't go back to <2% for a very long time.

Great replies.

I tend to agree with it all.

The only caveat I have about wage pressure's specific to commodity based industries is it may not be as pronounced. The labor force is much smaller than it was in previous cycle's. Less workers, higher wages.

I'm overweight in cash (mostly thanks to some big bonuses in '20 and '21 as a result of M&A (where I worked) getting absolutely destroyed, and I didn't just want to dump cash somewhere given asset prices so high) and usually feel bad about it, but always makes me feel better when I hear BH has a large cash position too.

I unfortunately don't think wages go up and inflation goes down unless exec comp goes down (not happening) or SH returns goes down (not happening). Only answer is for tax code to be fixed to incentivize the foregoing, which would be a great thing for a progressive leader to do - but dems are just republicans nowadays so rich ppl will continue to benefit from hisrotically low taxes while we plebs fight about pronouns.

Agree with all of this.

There is no way that wages go up and inflation goes down. This is capitalist for reason....

You will end up with embedded inflation and than there is no way to fix it without massive recession.

Consumer spends 70-80% of their pay stub any extra purchasing power will go back right into economy and you get vicious cycle.

Consumers are not rational. You saw what people were doing late 2020/2021 when people were buying things over msrp like it was free.

US debt is like $35 Trillion / Consumer is holding something like $16/17 Trillion debt / Corporate debt is around $15 Trillion

Add all that up and thats $70B of debt now compare that to GDP and well......

Now in theory if you gave everyone wage bump lets says doubled it.

All that debt could go away so fast. Since debt is fixed number it doesn't double.

However there is no way to force companies not to double price of everything since its supply and demand market.

Plus you basically would be cutting everyone retirement saving in half. That milk jug would now cost $10 etc.

Considering everything is run by 10% good luck telling Elon / Bezos / Gates / Zuck etc their now worth half on paper.




Higher for longer is the only path forward. However at some point something is bound to break.

How bad will something go boom. Well who knows.




btw notice something

CPI / PCE / NFP etc previous readings keep getting revised up. (going back like 4 months)

however since its passed / everyone is already levered up.

this market wouldn't be this high if last CPI / PCE real numbers were reported.

but thats how game works.

if this market was easy everyone would be making boatloads of money.

Interesting take there calling out CEO's doing some clown accounting tricks.

Meanwhile Warren not a single mention of the Ohio train derailment and all those nasty chemicals spilled.

Than you look at what Berk owns all those stakes in railroads.

^ So basically we're fuked

Ok cool

I don't think we are phucked like its all going down.

You need to disconnect real world and wall street.

Did they make mistake and print unreal amount of money and basically just give it to the rich? Yeah they did. Income inequality got worse after covid. However thats life rich get richer.


People in real world have jobs and demand for workers is stupid high. So if you want to talk real world we aren't phucked.

I still can't find any metric that is saying there is some dangerous things being done ala 08 housing crash around the corner.


What you can say here is that purchasing power of middle class got worse but atleast there is buy now pay later lol.

Car financing 84 months maybe soon 96 months.

Most of those things are fault of consumer.

Who is to blame for plebs standing in line waiting for next iphone etc.

Like why are idiots buying netflix? after password cracking and so on.

I can increase or decrease the number of drug addicts in any given place if I apply the correct stimulus, so if drug addicts increase, is it the fault of the consumer or the supplier of needs?

Blaming the consumer is like blaming a child, if you give them everything without them earning itandneglect supervision then you will not be happy will the decisions they make.

In times of emergency you may be more lenient with them but you need to put them in check ASAP and the permanent government(Daddy) didn't do that.



Now you have the permanent government(Daddy) forcible removing your playthings because y'all trying to burn the house down with the matches he gave you lol.

Sad thing is, your daddy is a piece of sht, he set you up for failure simply because he enjoys beating you and watching you suffer lol.

He knows that when you suffer, you turn towards stability and while daddy does beat you, he is always there lol.



None of this is an accident and it will keep happening because you will keep allowing it, grow up kid.

Entered SPY puts. Chit is about to tank into the first half of March.

Bought RNER AH @$5.15 because they still haven’t merged and I think it’s gonna end up dissolving and I’ll get $10 each insteadthey’ll try and extend tomorrow but I think that fails too otherwise I’ve got another month.

I did buy a 1/24 BABA Call for 150 strike for $3.2 shouldda went 2025 tbh…

LOL


short home builders

they should be phucked

Transporting things by rail is dangerous business, I did some research and it looks like an average of ~2,300 derails happen annually across the US and Canada. Of course most of those are much smaller, but it's all the more reason we shouldn't be pushing back on pipelines.


I don't believe for a second that Berkshire is in the business of putting people at more risk in the sake of profit or anything like that, they are the ones to trust stewarding this risky work. Accidents will still happen, and then hopefully we learn from them.

The company that had the train derailment is real pos they did $10B buyback while if you research bit their safety record is piss poor. (Norfolk Southern)

Warren has no stake in the company.

It was more observation since its not like BNSF doesn't use the same routes.

Fuaaaark, I had watched the beginning of the NTSB press conference and they had already narrowed the derailment down to a wheel bearing IIRC. If that ends up being a lapse in their own QA/QC or cheaping out on replacing parts, that will not be good

Always same thing.

Profit over everything.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...rash-evidence/


There was even better article (can't find at moment) that examined history of NSC safety records nothing but shiit.......long story short its NSC has big law team.

Individuals suing NSC will take 10-20 years to see single dime.



Like really?

‘Crafting an illusion’: US rail firms’ multimillion-dollar PR push

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...uthern-pr-push

no dildo indicator required here

to show this range of piss since October.

4 months stuck in tight 180ish point range.

market has gone no where.

11k posts whatt. time to post less.

Have mortgage providers gotten pizzpounded yet? Haven’t looked at Rkt in a long time but they gotta be suffering. WFC should be taking a lot of heat since they were a top 3 bank for mortgages both refi and new. They also still have their asset cap which crimps how much interest they can receive.

There's always going to be a QC/QA issue with disastrous consequences. Pipelines are no different with their leaks that companies aren't even aware of, from my understanding. Nothing like a constant leak into clean ground water and aquifers.

I think the bigger question is whether these materials even need to be transported. Why not create those chemicals on site to make the PVC. Or consider a better container for transport that isn't so easily leaked and can withstand a derailment. Not to mention the amount of chemicals being transported on one train. I've heard there are limits, but like with any regulation, companies will find ways around it if there's a cost savings.

Our infrastructure has been crumbling for decades and all that money printed through bills likely hasn't touched the infrastructure that actually needs the attention. East coast will build hundreds of new bridges but thousands are crumbling. If there was some actual thought placed into infrastructure planning, maybe we'd realize we no longer need 10 bridges over one river in one city. Imagine not building 1 $100mil bridge and building a new college to study infrastructure design and how to save money doing it.

Crumbling infrastructure has probably been a ploy to keep passing more tax and bills relating to infrastructure. Everyone on a local level agrees something needs done, so any spending relating to infrastructure will pass, then nothing gets done. My friend that works for the state says they'll build a bridge or two and do it quickly to spend the money before it's allocated somewhere else, so the projects that actually need done aren't even touched.

Bridge Engineer checking in. Can confirm we'll win a bridge replacement job, and then all of a sudden it just gets put aside for 10 years because there's no funding for it.

What incredible insight. Thank you so much for posting this.

short esh from 3995 today

stops 4010

cover 3920

what you going to do about it?

can't replicate that trade.


have no clue what I am talking about

can post to you tmmrw before market opens if trade worked or not to make you furious or happy

Anyone here watching the House China Committee meeting

There is so much more comingThese are good points man and insight. I don’t throw too much criticism at our infrastructure considering the size of North America and the state of most other countries, but no doubt there’s a lot of room for improvement.