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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1678645953 03-09-2023, 01:47 PM
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#2611
  1. SipNPiz
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  1. SipNPiz
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I asked around and here is what I heard about banking. Customers are transferring out from their savings and checking into tbonds because bonds are paying over 5%. Banks need deposits to create new loans to take advantage of the hire rates, the whole system is pivoting.

I asked around at work as well and folks who said they’d never buy bonds are buying bonds (even the boomers who made millions on stonks)
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678646063 03-09-2023, 01:49 PM
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#2612
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I asked around and here is what I heard about banking. Customers are transferring out from their savings and checking into tbonds because bonds are paying over 5%. Banks need deposits to create new loans to take advantage of the hire rates, the whole system is pivoting.

I asked around at work as well and folks who said they’d never buy bonds are buying bonds (even the boomers who made millions on stonks)
Sofi deposits are growing very rapidly. ALLY too since they offer 4%.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678647033 03-09-2023, 02:04 PM
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#2613
  1. Venom08
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hnnngggg my HLLY calls are banging. underlying is up 40% for the day and my calls are +200%. They're the August 5C. Picked them up a couple months ago.
post 1678647723 03-09-2023, 02:13 PM
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#2614
  1. SipNPiz
  2. 2 B Tan is 2 B Glorious!
  1. SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
hnnngggg my HLLY calls are banging. underlying is up 40% for the day and my calls are +200%. They're the August 5C. Picked them up a couple months ago.
Nice, I lost money on Holley :/
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678650283 03-09-2023, 02:51 PM
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#2615
  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
What's the total amount of capital you have invested to get $100 per week? That's pretty good.
Gonna reach ****** by the end of this month and plan to celebrate the milestone too, lol.

Edit: decided not to put the number out there, sorry. Just felt strange posting it.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1678652013 03-09-2023, 03:17 PM
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#2616
  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Dividends are overlooked IMO, but they are legit how businesses return $$$ to investors. Even when seeking out growthy companies, the growth prospects are the market trying to figure out how much $$$ that business will eventually pay out to investors

Not sure I'll ever be in the business of buying low and selling high, I want to buy low and get $$$ out of the company
Great post. Dividends are definitely a part of this whole game!
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1678657863 03-09-2023, 04:56 PM
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#2617
  1. Carbonfibre
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This thing could be lehman brothers.

Usually when you float trillions of dollars around like Fed did.

Someone was pushing limits doing bad things.

If this dominos and the way regional banks and big banks spooked market hard today....

Well you know what could happen.

Tmmrw should be good tell how deep this crisis is. Maybe this was one day sell off.


SIVB is 15 largest bank in US.

However if one dipshiit is doing bad things than someone was doing it as well.







https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/09/sili...-startups.html


All those bs spacs were funded by garbage banks like this.
post 1678660533 03-09-2023, 05:40 PM
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#2618
  1. Schnitzl
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Originally Posted By XcelerateNYC⏩
Ouch boyos this was some sell off.

Stay safe.
This shouldn't really come as a surprise, long time coming. I'm entering again when SPY is around 350ish and then balls deep at around 320 if we go that low this swing where we should start seeing a climb up to 420(possibly 440) level before another big drop.
post 1678661943 03-09-2023, 06:03 PM
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#2619
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
This thing could be lehman brothers.

Usually when you float trillions of dollars around like Fed did.

Someone was pushing limits doing bad things.

If this dominos and the way regional banks and big banks spooked market hard today....

Well you know what could happen.

Tmmrw should be good tell how deep this crisis is. Maybe this was one day sell off.


SIVB is 15 largest bank in US.

However if one dipshiit is doing bad things than someone was doing it as well.







https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/09/sili...-startups.html


All those bs spacs were funded by garbage banks like this.
Hearing about runs on SVB now. Pretty fukken nuts tbh. SVB is legit. Somewhat recently started doing M&A brokerage work too.
mo e
post 1678662713 03-09-2023, 06:17 PM
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#2620
  1. Destor
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To think we’ve likely barely started seeing effects from the rate hikes to date
post 1678662793 03-09-2023, 06:19 PM
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#2621
  1. SipNPiz
  2. 2 B Tan is 2 B Glorious!
  1. SipNPiz
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Holy fook 268 to 82 in a day, check out the after hours drop boys!
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678662893 03-09-2023, 06:21 PM
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#2622
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Hearing about runs on SVB now. Pretty fukken nuts tbh. SVB is legit. Somewhat recently started doing M&A brokerage work too.
Yeah lets see how this plays out tmmrw and next week.

Man this came out of left field.

Regional phucking banks huh.

Once Obama came into office after 08 crash they put in tons of safeguards into banks not to do risky stuff.

Someone always finds loopholes.
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
To think we’ve likely barely started seeing effects from the rate hikes to date
This is pure stupidity and risk taking at its finest thinking rate hikes were never going to stay this elevated.

Which clearly isn't even high considering inflation has started to pick up again.
post 1678663453 03-09-2023, 06:30 PM
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#2623
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Holy fook 268 to 82 in a day, check out the after hours drop boys!
This is just one bank atm SIVB can be absorbed by JPM tmmrw if price gets low enough.

Question will become over next days/week is this just one off.

The way big banks and small bank stocks across board reacted was panic.

Over reaction is possible.
post 1678663863 03-09-2023, 06:38 PM
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#2624
  1. imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
To think we’ve likely barely started seeing effects from the rate hikes to date
This is my thesis as well and why I'm mostly on the sidelines. I think the Fed hiked too much too soon and the market isn't understanding how many people will get laid off and how much spending/investment will decline as a bunch of overleveraged companies that got addicted to low interest rates have to refinance at higher rates or not even be able to issue debt for short-term liquidity. I think we'll eventually run back up, but if someone put a gun to my head and make me pick an answer, my guess is we drop a bit below the lows of last year (say around 3300-3400) and then start a rally back up as unemployment numbers, etc. surge and the Fed has no choice. Aren't we already at rates where servicing the debt is almost 100% of tax receipts or something insane like that?

As stupid as ZIRP is, I just don't see how a consoomer economy like ours can function without cheap debt being abundant.
post 1678664133 03-09-2023, 06:44 PM
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#2625
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
To think we’ve likely barely started seeing effects from the rate hikes to date
Pretty wild. I know "gaslighting" is overused, but the amount of gaslighting has been ridiculous. Transitory inflation. Just now "shocking rise in unemployment" after months of "job market remains super strong" even though all we hear about in the news is layoff after layoff. Everyone so focused on backward looking data. And we have been gaslit into not realizing our own situation or the current data. I think we have seen effects of rate hikes, just everyone is in denial. Once reality hits, its gonna hit hard.


Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Yeah lets see how this plays out tmmrw and next week.

Man this came out of left field.

Regional phucking banks huh.

Once Obama came into office after 08 crash they put in tons of safeguards into banks not to do risky stuff.

Someone always finds loopholes.



This is pure stupidity and risk taking at its finest thinking rate hikes were never going to stay this elevated.

Which clearly isn't even high considering inflation has started to pick up again.
Will be interesting to see if this reveals more systematic financial weakness / exposure, given this is a legit bank and not fukken FTX. 'member the UK pension scare a while back? So many unknown land mines.

Speaking of not doing risky stuff, who was margin loans on crypto accounts? I mean, in '08 the big mistake was making aggresive loans secured by an asset where there was an assumption that asset would always appreciate no matter what. What about making loans secured by assets that only exist until ppl collectively decide "nah"?

When ppl get greedy they do some crazy chit.
mo e
post 1678665943 03-09-2023, 07:19 PM
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#2626
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Will be interesting to see if this reveals more systematic financial weakness / exposure, given this is a legit bank and not fukken FTX. 'member the UK pension scare a while back? So many unknown land mines.

Speaking of not doing risky stuff, who was margin loans on crypto accounts? I mean, in '08 the big mistake was making aggresive loans secured by an asset where there was an assumption that asset would always appreciate no matter what. What about making loans secured by assets that only exist until ppl collectively decide "nah"?

When ppl get greedy they do some crazy chit.
If SIBV turns out to be one off.

Considering this insane price tanking after hours.

JPM will own it by Monday.


only kicker here will it be.




edit:


just want to add something

how fast these markets move


today the odds of 50BPS for March 22 FOMC was 80% before market even opened

now after move like this today 50BPS odds are now 50% (25bps back to 50%)

if SP 500 is at 3800 by FOMC

fed be like

no hike

market short squeezes to oblivion



tmmrw is also job report.

if its 200K ......
post 1678668363 03-09-2023, 08:00 PM
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#2627
  1. GreatReset1
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Today was Biden's America

Tomorrow will be Biden's America.

CarbonCuck is a big fan of all of this because he voted and supports this.
post 1678669583 03-09-2023, 08:21 PM
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#2628
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
If SIBV turns out to be one off.

Considering this insane price tanking after hours.

JPM will own it by Monday.


only kicker here will it be.
Did JPM say they had interest in buying?? I’d consider some short term deep OTM calls if I thought there was a chance it keeps dumping then recovers when everyone realizes it’s gonna be fine.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678670233 03-09-2023, 08:31 PM
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#2629
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Did JPM say they had interest in buying?? I’d consider some short term deep OTM calls if I thought there was a chance it keeps dumping then recovers when everyone realizes it’s gonna be fine.
Just rumor.

Remember after such insane dump there will be rumors left and right / sharks will be circling for short squeeze other way.

SIVB is venture capital lender / it basically the door for silicon valley startups.

JPM would love that client list.

Cause you never know these days who is the next chatgp around the corner etc.
post 1678674143 03-09-2023, 09:51 PM
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#2630
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Just rumor.

Remember after such insane dump there will be rumors left and right / sharks will be circling for short squeeze other way.

SIVB is venture capital lender / it basically the door for silicon valley startups.

JPM would love that client list.

Cause you never know these days who is the next chatgp around the corner etc.
To me, it looks like they already took their lumps in terms of bad fixed income assets. Realistically they’ll make it up with better rates on new short term buys. This seems way way overblown IMO
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678676083 03-09-2023, 10:51 PM
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#2631
  1. SipNPiz
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Anyone on Reddit post a screen shot holding a $200p on SIVR prior to today? ****s up 1,000,000%
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678689343 03-10-2023, 07:33 AM
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#2632
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Anyone on Reddit post a screen shot holding a $200p on SIVR prior to today? ****s up 1,000,000%
It’s halted today pending news. Wonder if they managed a sale already

Also saw some poor fools with really high CSP on them LOL

Edit: lots happening right now and imo it’s proof liquidity has dried up. Bond yields down like 5%. SBNY down 25% just because.

And to think 45 million people haven’t even had their student loan payments turned back on yet
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678691363 03-10-2023, 08:11 AM
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#2633
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Is it too early to confirm this was a one day selloff?
Banking sector still getting hammered. I might try and catch a bounce. Sold my Sofi CC for next to nothing. Might just buy some calls for them and some other banks.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678692203 03-10-2023, 08:26 AM
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#2634
  1. SipNPiz
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  1. SipNPiz
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Wtf now FRC was down 50% then halted
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678694853 03-10-2023, 09:26 AM
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#2635
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everything is fine SIVB now for sale

I am sure JPM will scoop them dirt cheap at like $5 per share.




on unrelated note

market panic just priced out any 50BPS hike March 22 FOMC


market has lost its mind again


one regional bank goes poo poo

market be like price out any further hike Jerome

do it now



edit:

Joe says next week CPI report is very good

lmao
post 1678696603 03-10-2023, 09:54 AM
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#2636
  1. Destor
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It looks like SVB has now been entirely closed by the regulator

https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-rele...3/pr23016.html
post 1678697123 03-10-2023, 10:01 AM
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#2637
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
It looks like SVB has now been entirely closed by the regulator

https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-rele...3/pr23016.html
Damn . . . that escalated quickly. Not often you see a bank die in 2 days.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

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post 1678697593 03-10-2023, 10:08 AM
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#2638
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
Damn . . . that escalated quickly. Not often you see a bank die in 2 days.
Bought a SBNY call this morningwe will see if I’m still smiling Monday lol
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678697653 03-10-2023, 10:08 AM
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#2639
  1. SipNPiz
  2. 2 B Tan is 2 B Glorious!
  1. SipNPiz
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What a time to be alive, thoughtd it’d be easy money selling a CSP expiring today
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678699693 03-10-2023, 10:39 AM
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#2640
  1. SipNPiz
  2. 2 B Tan is 2 B Glorious!
  1. SipNPiz
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PAC west down 50% in two days think the fed will seize it too, trading has been halted for hours
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
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