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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
03-11-2023, 03:15 PM
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#2671
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
We find out Monday I supposeHow do you guys see the USD performing over the next 1-2 months, especially with all this SVB chaos in mind?
Fitness connoisseur
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03-12-2023, 12:37 PM
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#2672
- Carbonfibre
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sounds like they won't even let this get to market open
SIBV bank sale final bids due tonight.
If no suitable buyer
You guessed it whats coming next.
Fed to backstop (aka bailout) before even market opens
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...bank-deposits/
SIBV bank sale final bids due tonight.
If no suitable buyer
You guessed it whats coming next.
Fed to backstop (aka bailout) before even market opens
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...bank-deposits/
03-12-2023, 01:08 PM
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#2673
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I understand why they would consider that option. But if that’s what it comes to there should be arrests for financial crimes. If you fuk up your business so bad the government has to bail you out you should rot in prison. Perhaps the consequences would help you find a risk analyst instead of going without for over a year. Perhaps then you’d have more interest in getting your underwater business sold. Insiders who cashed out equity should have their assets seized like drug crimes or other financial crimes. Fuk people who make money creating these situations.sounds like they won't even let this get to market open
SIBV bank sale final bids due tonight.
If no suitable buyer
You guessed it whats coming next.
Fed to backstop (aka bailout) before even market opens
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...bank-deposits/
SIBV bank sale final bids due tonight.
If no suitable buyer
You guessed it whats coming next.
Fed to backstop (aka bailout) before even market opens
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...bank-deposits/
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 01:36 PM
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#2674
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
It will never work this way when rich hold everyone in their pockets. VC funds have been crying last 3 days for bailout.I understand why they would consider that option. But if that’s what it comes to there should be arrests for financial crimes. If you fuk up your business so bad the government has to bail you out you should rot in prison. Perhaps the consequences would help you find a risk analyst instead of going without for over a year. Perhaps then you’d have more interest in getting your underwater business sold. Insiders who cashed out equity should have their assets seized like drug crimes or other financial crimes. Fuk people who make money creating these situations.
When someone phucks up in capitalist they first thing they do is run back to socialism and shout bail me out.
Back in 2021 Federal reserve was clear as day couldn't be more direct when they said we have to raise interest rates.
Jerome telegraphed it over and over / inflation is not transitory.
Rates going up.
Some bozo at SIVB be like in 2021.
Yeah I don't believe you Jerome let me keep chasing real yields and buying securities that are heavy sensitive you interest rates (ie MBS etc)
All they had to due was hedge their portfolio and buy T bills to match their liabilities. Sell TLT etc. There is interest rate swaps etc.
Every real estate company hedges / every oil company hedges. This is just pure stupidity by SIBV management.
Balance sheet of bank is Assets vs Liabilities.
Assets is made up of securities / loans
vs
Liabilities made up of Deposits / Debit / Equity
Amount of Securities they owned was $120B and all of it was sensitive to interest rate changes.
Even phucking carpenter would have said wait of minute we need to hedge our securities would have taken 10 minute of their phucking time.
Best way to summarize this situation.
You're building house by coast and you see hurricane coming.
You say phuck it will turn other way no way this is coming here.
Every FOMC meeting Jerome tells you hurricane ain't turning.
They kept saying yeah we don't believe you.
Well it came and killed them.
Now Fed is gonna be forced to do something here and risky clowns get bailed out again.
03-12-2023, 01:47 PM
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#2675
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
They had a guy who interned at Enron and was working for Lehman’s in 2008 LOLTheir chief risk officer was a woke diversity hire. jflol
Literally, "go woke, go broke"
Bailout = its just going to happen again because they know there's no consequences
Literally, "go woke, go broke"
Bailout = its just going to happen again because they know there's no consequences
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 01:55 PM
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#2676
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You do realize this risk officer with "woke" is pr campaign spin from SIVB to throw someone under the bus.
How about the fact that risk officer was put in place 2022.
System is corrupt. They just looking for some low level employee to feed to media.
When in reality the guys on top knew what they were doing.
CEO has 30 years of experience.
Its simply greed.
I guarantee you nobody at the top is going to jail for this management oversight.
You saw it 2008.
How about the fact that risk officer was put in place 2022.
System is corrupt. They just looking for some low level employee to feed to media.
When in reality the guys on top knew what they were doing.
CEO has 30 years of experience.
Its simply greed.
I guarantee you nobody at the top is going to jail for this management oversight.
You saw it 2008.
03-12-2023, 02:09 PM
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#2677
03-12-2023, 02:21 PM
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#2678
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less than 2 hours till futures open
market crashing tmmrw
or
giant green dildo if they manage to find someone to buy SIVB.
bailout is really really bad outcome.
this would mean inflation is doing u turn.
market crashing tmmrw
or
giant green dildo if they manage to find someone to buy SIVB.
bailout is really really bad outcome.
this would mean inflation is doing u turn.
03-12-2023, 02:30 PM
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#2679
Fed Chairman Powell says economic reopening could cause inflation to pick up temporarily
The Fed has repeatedly said that it will keep short-term rates anchored near zero and continue its monthly bond-buying program until it sees not only a low unemployment rate but also a jobs recovery that is "inclusive" across income, gender and racial lines.
However, some economists have worried that the Fed's commitment to low rates will foster inflation. Powell said he's "very mindful" of the lessons from runaway inflation in the 1960s and '70s, but believes this situation is different.
"We're very mindful and I think it's a constructive thing for people to point out potential risks. I always want to hear that," he said. "But I do think it's more likely that what happens in the next year or so is going to amount to prices moving up but not staying up and certainly not staying up to the point where they would move inflation expectations materially above 2%."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/fed-...mporarily.html
That was in March of 2021, it wasn't until November that Jerome retired the word transitory.
Jerome Powell suggests it’s time to stop describing inflation as ‘transitory’
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested to lawmakers Tuesday that the time has come to stop referring to the inflation currently ravaging the economy as “transitory” — four months after President Biden suggested price increases were only temporary.
“How long does inflation have to run above your target before the Fed decides, maybe it’s not so transitory?”Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) asked Powell, who appeared alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Powell explained that while the word has “different meanings to different people,” the Federal Reserve “tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation.
https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/jerome...ory-inflation/
Powell also claimed multiple times that he would not raise rates in 2022.
Fed will not raise rates on inflation fears alone, Powell says
"We will not raise interest rates pre-emptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation.We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances," Powell said in a hearing before a U.S. House of Representatives panel.
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...rn-2021-06-22/
Above, the Fed lays out how they are going to make economic mistakes beginning with allowing inflation to run instead of getting ahead of it before it does.
Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Jerome Powell doesn't know what he's doing, he knows exactly what he's doing.
This is not an accident.
The Fed has repeatedly said that it will keep short-term rates anchored near zero and continue its monthly bond-buying program until it sees not only a low unemployment rate but also a jobs recovery that is "inclusive" across income, gender and racial lines.
However, some economists have worried that the Fed's commitment to low rates will foster inflation. Powell said he's "very mindful" of the lessons from runaway inflation in the 1960s and '70s, but believes this situation is different.
"We're very mindful and I think it's a constructive thing for people to point out potential risks. I always want to hear that," he said. "But I do think it's more likely that what happens in the next year or so is going to amount to prices moving up but not staying up and certainly not staying up to the point where they would move inflation expectations materially above 2%."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/fed-...mporarily.html
That was in March of 2021, it wasn't until November that Jerome retired the word transitory.
Jerome Powell suggests it’s time to stop describing inflation as ‘transitory’
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested to lawmakers Tuesday that the time has come to stop referring to the inflation currently ravaging the economy as “transitory” — four months after President Biden suggested price increases were only temporary.
“How long does inflation have to run above your target before the Fed decides, maybe it’s not so transitory?”Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) asked Powell, who appeared alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Powell explained that while the word has “different meanings to different people,” the Federal Reserve “tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation.
https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/jerome...ory-inflation/
Powell also claimed multiple times that he would not raise rates in 2022.
Fed will not raise rates on inflation fears alone, Powell says
"We will not raise interest rates pre-emptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation.We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances," Powell said in a hearing before a U.S. House of Representatives panel.
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...rn-2021-06-22/
Above, the Fed lays out how they are going to make economic mistakes beginning with allowing inflation to run instead of getting ahead of it before it does.
Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Jerome Powell doesn't know what he's doing, he knows exactly what he's doing.
This is not an accident.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
03-12-2023, 02:35 PM
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#2680
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Things like this make me glad I’m mostly cash in my 401k and have strong cash position otherwise and had CCs close or atm on most positions last week. Will be going with CSP on Payo and sofi this week. Both will get lumped in on that stupid bank problem, but neither have any real exposure to that bank or the problems underlying the industry(Payo does have $20m in the bank in deposits AND 3rd part mm funds).less than 2 hours till futures open
market crashing tmmrw
or
giant green dildo if they manage to find someone to buy SIVB.
bailout is really really bad outcome.
this would mean inflation is doing u turn.
market crashing tmmrw
or
giant green dildo if they manage to find someone to buy SIVB.
bailout is really really bad outcome.
this would mean inflation is doing u turn.
People are gonna start seeing the cracks in the system and hopefully we continue to lower inflation. Feel good about the long term puts I’ve got for WBA, F, and Sbux
My SNBY calls looking a little ugly, but they can easily turn around quickly if things are calmed Monday. For the love of god everyone here reading please do not attempt CSP for small regional banks or maybe even companies with significant dollar sums banked at SVB. Go otm calls pls. Do not risk getting assigned a $0 stock if things go south.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 02:44 PM
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#2681
- Carbonfibre
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^^^^^^^
The funny thing about crack in the system came from left field.
Like complete and utter incompetence from one bank caused panic.
Most were aiming that Fed higher for longer was going to hurt company earnings Q1.
Q1 earnings were solid considering the interest rates.
I would not be touching regional banks with ten foot pole atm. You cannot take chance on some regional bank thinking they are not SIVB.
The investors that were holding SIVB options got phucked once FIDC came in and shut it all down. You ain't getting that back.
Only interest would be KRE ETF (regional bank etf) if there is good solution and bounce comes.
The next candles on KRE are 2020 Feb/March all over again.
Or mean reversion back to $60.
The funny thing about crack in the system came from left field.
Like complete and utter incompetence from one bank caused panic.
Most were aiming that Fed higher for longer was going to hurt company earnings Q1.
Q1 earnings were solid considering the interest rates.
I would not be touching regional banks with ten foot pole atm. You cannot take chance on some regional bank thinking they are not SIVB.
The investors that were holding SIVB options got phucked once FIDC came in and shut it all down. You ain't getting that back.
Only interest would be KRE ETF (regional bank etf) if there is good solution and bounce comes.
The next candles on KRE are 2020 Feb/March all over again.
Or mean reversion back to $60.
03-12-2023, 02:58 PM
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#2682
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Thanks for mentioning that. I forgot to mention there is the risk that they get taken by fed and their equity trading freezes and wherever they sit is where options exercise. As long as you aren’t picking things expiring this week you are likely ok from that concern, but there is always the risk that things spill over and suddenly at least 1 or 2 of the badly hedged regional banks bites the dust too.^^^^^^^
I would not be touching regional banks with ten foot pole atm. You cannot take chance on some regional bank thinking they are not SIVB.
The investors that were holding SIVB options got phucked once FIDC came in and shut it all down. You ain't getting that back.
Only interest would be KRE ETF (regional bank etf) if there is good solution and bounce comes.
The next candles on KRE are 2020 Feb/March all over again.
Or mean reversion back to $60.
I would not be touching regional banks with ten foot pole atm. You cannot take chance on some regional bank thinking they are not SIVB.
The investors that were holding SIVB options got phucked once FIDC came in and shut it all down. You ain't getting that back.
Only interest would be KRE ETF (regional bank etf) if there is good solution and bounce comes.
The next candles on KRE are 2020 Feb/March all over again.
Or mean reversion back to $60.
Fitness connoisseur
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03-12-2023, 04:21 PM
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#2683
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melt up to the upside in futures markets right now.
absolute panic in the futures.
SNBY also dead seized by FCID (aka gone)
fed / treasury stepping in and backstopping everything now because this was going to contagion tmmrw if they didn't.
hello bailouts.
see how it works.
take big risks and when things go boom.
here comes the fed and treasury to save your ass.
"US Federal reserve and treasury: The taxpayer will bear no losses associated with the resolution of SIVB"
absolute panic in the futures.
SNBY also dead seized by FCID (aka gone)
fed / treasury stepping in and backstopping everything now because this was going to contagion tmmrw if they didn't.
hello bailouts.
see how it works.
take big risks and when things go boom.
here comes the fed and treasury to save your ass.
"US Federal reserve and treasury: The taxpayer will bear no losses associated with the resolution of SIVB"
03-12-2023, 04:33 PM
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#2684
- Destor
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
It sounds like banks will be the ones footing the bill via special assessments? I dunno, not really familiar with bankingmelt up to the upside in futures markets right now.
absolute panic in the futures.
SNBY also dead seized by FCID (aka gone)
fed / treasury stepping in and backstopping everything now because this was going to contagion tmmrw if they didn't.
hello bailouts.
see how it works.
take big risks and when things go boom.
here comes the fed and treasury to save your ass.
"US Federal reserve and treasury: The taxpayer will bear no losses associated with the resolution of SIVB"
absolute panic in the futures.
SNBY also dead seized by FCID (aka gone)
fed / treasury stepping in and backstopping everything now because this was going to contagion tmmrw if they didn't.
hello bailouts.
see how it works.
take big risks and when things go boom.
here comes the fed and treasury to save your ass.
"US Federal reserve and treasury: The taxpayer will bear no losses associated with the resolution of SIVB"
03-12-2023, 04:41 PM
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#2685
- Carbonfibre
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^^^^
Just wait till tmmrw once all the details come out.
Treasury is going to backstop with $25B to start with and than increase when needed.
Just wait till tmmrw once all the details come out.
Treasury is going to backstop with $25B to start with and than increase when needed.
03-12-2023, 04:46 PM
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#2686
03-12-2023, 05:17 PM
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#2687
- RobParks2M
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LMAO there goes my SBNY call. Why tf did they get singled out to go down with the ship? Were they really in that bad of shape?
The fact they plucked another to go down without any notice speaks volumes about the number of regional banks likely in trouble. Any money going in that direction might just be dead.
The fact they plucked another to go down without any notice speaks volumes about the number of regional banks likely in trouble. Any money going in that direction might just be dead.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 05:28 PM
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#2688
- Carbonfibre
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let me summarize why there was panic when futures opened shorts started to cover their position.
now everything calmed down.
-everyone was scared Thursday/Friday
-VIX went from 19 to 28 in 2 days
-which means puts were loaded at fast rate
-market moves to the right and up always
-with fed/treasury stepping in you just got risk reversal play the worst outcome for someone holding puts
-if tmmrw by RTH there is no more news iel like other banks start to crack think Schwab chart looked like **** Thursday/Friday. market is implying higher move up.
bonus points
From peak fed rate of 5.75% now down to 5.15%
good thing we going to choke on inflation again cause Fed had to help VC fund douchebags like Ackman etc.
now everything calmed down.
-everyone was scared Thursday/Friday
-VIX went from 19 to 28 in 2 days
-which means puts were loaded at fast rate
-market moves to the right and up always
-with fed/treasury stepping in you just got risk reversal play the worst outcome for someone holding puts
-if tmmrw by RTH there is no more news iel like other banks start to crack think Schwab chart looked like **** Thursday/Friday. market is implying higher move up.
bonus points
From peak fed rate of 5.75% now down to 5.15%
good thing we going to choke on inflation again cause Fed had to help VC fund douchebags like Ackman etc.
03-12-2023, 05:30 PM
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#2689
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
See my previous post. Crypto???let me summarize why there was panic when futures opened shorts started to cover their position.
now everything calmed down.
-everyone was scared Thursday/Friday
-VIX went from 19 to 28 in 2 days
-which means puts were loaded at fast rate
-market moves to the right and up always
-with fed/treasury stepping in you just got risk reversal play the worst outcome for someone holding puts
-if tmmrw by RTH there is no more news iel like other banks start to crack think Schwab chart looked like **** Thursday/Friday. market is implying higher move up.
bonus points
From peak fed rate of 5.75% now down to 5.15%
good thing we going to choke on inflation again cause Fed had to help VC fund douchebags like Ackman etc.
now everything calmed down.
-everyone was scared Thursday/Friday
-VIX went from 19 to 28 in 2 days
-which means puts were loaded at fast rate
-market moves to the right and up always
-with fed/treasury stepping in you just got risk reversal play the worst outcome for someone holding puts
-if tmmrw by RTH there is no more news iel like other banks start to crack think Schwab chart looked like **** Thursday/Friday. market is implying higher move up.
bonus points
From peak fed rate of 5.75% now down to 5.15%
good thing we going to choke on inflation again cause Fed had to help VC fund douchebags like Ackman etc.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 05:34 PM
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#2690
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Crypto had massive reversal because bunch of them were holding money with SIVB.See my previous post. Crypto???
Now they getting their deposits back.
Check the BTC chart.
03-12-2023, 05:36 PM
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#2691
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Ahh true- their money won’t be frozen.Crypto had massive reversal because bunch of them were holding money with SIVB.
Now they getting their deposits back.
Check the BTC chart.
Now they getting their deposits back.
Check the BTC chart.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 05:45 PM
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#2692
How is inflation going to be a problem when oil has been on a downtrend since June 2022, R's promise less spending, U.S. will enter recession, the Fed promises to raise rates even through bad economic data, China is reopening and Russia-Ukraine is almost closer to end than beginning?(I can go on)
What are these inflationary pressures that you people are seeing that will trump those 6 deflationary things I just mentioned?
Please make it make sense.
What are these inflationary pressures that you people are seeing that will trump those 6 deflationary things I just mentioned?
Please make it make sense.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
03-12-2023, 05:56 PM
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#2693
03-12-2023, 06:11 PM
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#2694
- SipNPiz
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What happens with loans that are due to SVB? Does the debt get sold by the receiver? Could you bid on your own debt lol like if you owe them $100,000k loan and they sell the loan and you bid it to $80,000k
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
03-12-2023, 06:13 PM
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#2695
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I will be keen to hear Jpow’s thoughts. I won’t be shocked to hear him say they are done hiking for the moment. Hopefully I can snag some well priced bonds. I should have bought more by this point but I thought one buy was good while rates were going up. I wonder what Ibonds will pay after April. Probably nothing LOLI don't know why anyone thinks rate cuts are coming this year, the market is relentlessly optimistic
Also, did C-suite for SBNY agree/ask for the takeover?? It blows my mind equity gang can be fine Thursday then suddenly they get taken to the cleaners.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
03-12-2023, 06:18 PM
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#2696
- taf1968
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I don't think SBNY execs had any say in it. The state & fed regulators just declare "systemic risk" and you're extinct.I will be keen to hear Jpow’s thoughts. I won’t be shocked to hear him say they are done hiking for the moment. Hopefully I can snag some well priced bonds. I should have bought more by this point but I thought one buy was good while rates were going up. I wonder what Ibonds will pay after April. Probably nothing LOL
Also, did C-suite for SBNY agree/ask for the takeover?? It blows my mind equity gang can be fine Thursday then suddenly they get taken to the cleaners.
Also, did C-suite for SBNY agree/ask for the takeover?? It blows my mind equity gang can be fine Thursday then suddenly they get taken to the cleaners.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*
**Distal Bicep Rupture Crew (Feb 2013)** -- recovery log: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=151942933
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03-12-2023, 06:22 PM
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#2697
I'm really trying to save y'all but you guys just don't want to be saved lol.
We are still getting great economic data, jobs reports are smashing expectations, wages are still rising and GDP is still coming in hot lol.
If JPow says he's going to keep raising rates even through bad data and we are getting good data, I don't see why he would pause now with inflation above 6% lol.
We are still getting great economic data, jobs reports are smashing expectations, wages are still rising and GDP is still coming in hot lol.
If JPow says he's going to keep raising rates even through bad data and we are getting good data, I don't see why he would pause now with inflation above 6% lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
03-12-2023, 06:25 PM
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#2698
03-12-2023, 06:30 PM
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#2699
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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Originally Posted By JonZ⏩
Lol look at insider sales too. They cashed out quite a bit this year.Supposedly as of Friday, nice bonuses going around at SVB amid collapse.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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03-12-2023, 06:37 PM
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#2700
- Destor
- Registered User
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- Destor
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Canada had already paused hikes and held from the last move, but I don't think unemployment numbers or PCE support that in the US right now. They know pain will be required, and this event doesn't even seem like it'll be leading to immediate pain -- liquidity will be provided for all these start-ups needing to fund payroll etc, and the song and dance goes on with pain being more drawn out over the future.I will be keen to hear Jpow’s thoughts. I won’t be shocked to hear him say they are done hiking for the moment. Hopefully I can snag some well priced bonds. I should have bought more by this point but I thought one buy was good while rates were going up. I wonder what Ibonds will pay after April. Probably nothing LOL
Also, did C-suite for SBNY agree/ask for the takeover?? It blows my mind equity gang can be fine Thursday then suddenly they get taken to the cleaners.
Also, did C-suite for SBNY agree/ask for the takeover?? It blows my mind equity gang can be fine Thursday then suddenly they get taken to the cleaners.
Might be wrong, but I don't think this will be a consideration in a pause much less cuts any time soon
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