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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1678999743 03-15-2023, 08:26 AM
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#2761
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Bond yields getting absolutely murdered. Didn’t see this coming when rate hikes should be continuing. Guess I should have bought more Monday or Tuesday.
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post 1679000113 03-15-2023, 08:32 AM
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tons of panic

this is changing by the second

post 1679000623 03-15-2023, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
yeah CS is done

this called limit down on many euro banks




also PPI / retail sales missed by country mile

WTI diving under $70 (not good)


demand destruction doing its thing

guess fed is winning



set alarm clock early and went short ES futures.
Ha wonder how that emergency backstop works for non-us banks?

Also, whats up w that 2 yr note?
mo e
post 1679000913 03-15-2023, 08:47 AM
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Carb,

How do i get out of the following position.

I did the following yesterday to experiment.

Buy to open
AMD X 1
3/17 $83 PUT
.50

it's up %14 for a 9$ gain lol

do i just do the opposite and "sell to close" at whatever limit price i choose to do so?

Also, if i wanted to let it ride, i can just leave it alone and not do anything correct? after closing friday, i'll have either made some money or just lose the 50$ correct?

is this considered "shorting a stock" ?
post 1679001043 03-15-2023, 08:49 AM
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#2765
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Ha wonder how that emergency backstop works for non-us banks?

Also, whats up w that 2 yr note?
margin calls on those trades

thats why you're getting erratic moves right now across everything





basically book old as time

tech bros (VC fund) that need ZIRP decided to cause run on bank so they can cause fed to pivot

see how efficient system capitalism turns out to be

when rich people blow up they run for help

poor stay poor they don't give shiit that fed didn't even finish their job
Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
Carb,

How do i get out of the following position.

I did the following yesterday to experiment.

Buy to open
AMD X 1
3/17 $83 PUT
.50

it's up %14 for a 9$ gain lol

do i just do the opposite and "sell to close" at whatever limit price i choose to do so?

Also, if i wanted to let it ride, i can just leave it alone and not do anything correct? after closing friday, i'll have either made some money or just lose the 50$ correct?

is this considered "shorting a stock" ?
yeah the opposite

buy to open

sell to close

also yeah use limits always to buy and sell.


its up to you if you want to ride.

there is chance that ECB panics and does same thing fed did to backstop other ECB banks.

this could cause reversal ... not sure on this atm
post 1679001513 03-15-2023, 09:00 AM
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#2766
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Lame I’m negative YTD nowoil dropped below $70
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1679002043 03-15-2023, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
yeah the opposite

buy to open

sell to close

also yeah use limits always to buy and sell.


its up to you if you want to ride.

there is chance that ECB panics and does same thing fed did to backstop other ECB banks.

this could cause reversal ... not sure on this atm
thx bruh
post 1679002893 03-15-2023, 09:27 AM
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Between 1980 and 1994 during The Great Inflation, more than 1,600 banks went under or received assistance from the FDIC
post 1679003913 03-15-2023, 09:49 AM
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they just broke WTI

crude is crashing now

down 6% on the day

holy phuck
post 1679003923 03-15-2023, 09:49 AM
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#2770
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Anyone else holding options on Adobe ahead of earnings? Stock is at less than half of its record high, I’m guessing it could easily gap either way
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post 1679004023 03-15-2023, 09:51 AM
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It has been a long ass time since I've had loss porn like this

post 1679005393 03-15-2023, 10:15 AM
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the oil move is unreal

mind blown


the safest play getting hammered
post 1679006113 03-15-2023, 10:27 AM
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Just bought a few more shares of Suncor with the spare cash in my RRSP

Tempting af to pull a bunch of money out of the credit line and throw it into the TFSA, 10.69% interest but Suncor is at over 5% dividend yield at current price/payout and then whatever price appreciation may happen in that time. But it feels like if things get worse, valuations across the entire market could crater a lot more and not worth the risk playing with debt right now.
post 1679006553 03-15-2023, 10:35 AM
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#2774
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Between 1980 and 1994 during The Great Inflation, more than 1,600 banks went under or received assistance from the FDIC
I panic sold my NYCB for a slight gain. All these banks are interconnected and I don’t know that we’ve seen the full ramifications of all the crap going on just yet. I feel good with sofi since they weren’t a bank when all these other banks were buying low yield bonds. They should weather just fine. I imagine other big banks are fine aside from Wells Fargo who are absolutely cucked with their asset cap.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1679007613 03-15-2023, 10:53 AM
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#2775
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if crude is going

there is better bottoms to be bought imo

margin calls on crude futures atm.



next week FOMC


might be the most important FOMC since march 2020.




overall market is close to crash it has been since 2020 atm.

bond market is blowing the hell up
post 1679007783 03-15-2023, 10:56 AM
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#2776
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Between 1980 and 1994 during The Great Inflation, more than 1,600 banks went under or received assistance from the FDIC
And we learned nothing or it's by design. Regulate & deregulate cycle no?
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post 1679008673 03-15-2023, 11:12 AM
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^^ Yeah I'm still waiting for the opportunity to get into the growthier stocks lol, that's what I would be looking to do with fresh unencumbered money. Dividend yielders would feel like the safer bet right now with money that costs money, but when we're near the actual bottom I want to be looking at growth.

Inflation is still at 6% though, think there's more to come and this is just part of the process. Banks failing didn't stop the Fed during the '80s and '90s...
post 1679008853 03-15-2023, 11:15 AM
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pressure has turned on to Swiss central bank to help Credit Suisse

ala same shiit Fed did to backstop

CS has exposure to bigger banks hence why JPM and other bigger banks had dive today.





tech bros and their obsession with zero interest rate.

they are hooked on zero interest rate ******* and want to burn everything down so Fed turns on printer

phucking clowns.
post 1679012003 03-15-2023, 12:04 PM
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#2779
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
pressure has turned on to Swiss central bank to help Credit Suisse

ala same shiit Fed did to backstop

CS has exposure to bigger banks hence why JPM and other bigger banks had dive today.





tech bros and their obsession with zero interest rate.

they are hooked on zero interest rate ******* and want to burn everything down so Fed turns on printer

phucking clowns.
The Fed needs to ignore that chit, it's what's in the news right now but if they conceded I am sure the bears would come out of hibernation and it wouldn't be good for anyone. Immediate loss of confidence, inflation expectations probably skyrocket, etc etc
post 1679012243 03-15-2023, 12:09 PM
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#2780
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
The Fed needs to ignore that chit, it's what's in the news right now but if they conceded I am sure the bears would come out of hibernation and it wouldn't be good for anyone. Immediate loss of confidence, inflation expectations probably skyrocket, etc etc
They want stock markets down so should be fine
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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post 1679012573 03-15-2023, 12:15 PM
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#2781
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Between 1980 and 1994 during The Great Inflation, more than 1,600 banks went under or received assistance from the FDIC
So you are saying the Fed is not stopping this month?
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post 1679013293 03-15-2023, 12:26 PM
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#2782
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
So you are saying the Fed is not stopping this month?
Well I don't recall ever hearing the Fed say bank failures was part of the data they're depending on

Deposits are being backstopped, banks can fail left and right but consumer purchasing power will remain. Inflation is at 6%, maybe this will have an impact on unemployment but it ain't in the data. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers thinks the Fed still needs to go to 6%+, Fink thinks we'll be at 3.5-4% inflation for "the next few years".


I think this is part of the process and rates will remain higher for longer, pain is necessary. Who fukn knows tho, this is not investing advice.
post 1679013433 03-15-2023, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
^^ Yeah I'm still waiting for the opportunity to get into the growthier stocks lol, that's what I would be looking to do with fresh unencumbered money. Dividend yielders would feel like the safer bet right now with money that costs money, but when we're near the actual bottom I want to be looking at growth.

Inflation is still at 6% though, think there's more to come and this is just part of the process. Banks failing didn't stop the Fed during the '80s and '90s...
I think we all know based on last conversations that admitting we're in recession was going to take a long time. I just didn't think it'd be this long to finally see it unwind. I thought the buying opportunity would be a year ago.

I'm keeping my cash in cap one at 3.4% for now, but the dividend approach should be solid. Utilities and real-estate, but I see real-estate continue to decline.
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post 1679013753 03-15-2023, 12:35 PM
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#2784
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I think we all know based on last conversations that admitting we're in recession was going to take a long time. I just didn't think it'd be this long to finally see it unwind. I thought the buying opportunity would be a year ago.

I'm keeping my cash in cap one at 3.4% for now, but the dividend approach should be solid. Utilities and real-estate, but I see real-estate continue to decline.
Same here man, this is way more drawn out than I imagined too
post 1679013983 03-15-2023, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Well I don't recall ever hearing the Fed say bank failures was part of the data they're depending on

Deposits are being backstopped, banks can fail left and right but consumer purchasing power will remain. Inflation is at 6%, maybe this will have an impact on unemployment but it ain't in the data. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers thinks the Fed still needs to go to 6%+, Fink thinks we'll be at 3.5-4% inflation for "the next few years".


I think this is part of the process and rates will remain higher for longer, pain is necessary. Who fukn knows tho, this is not investing advice.
I agree with you, you had a post talking about when to expect a bottom in the market a long time ago, I agree with that too.
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post 1679014153 03-15-2023, 12:44 PM
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#2786
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Swiss regulators blinked already.

Announcement coming looks like in few hours.

Here comes another backstop.

They are putting brush fires out left and right.



Hard to argue atm that central banks are just buying time here.



Record rate cutting and held them down too long

Crazy rate hiking to fix mistake.

Than something went boom / the thing that nobody expected would go boom regional banks.

Pure risk mismanagement from tech clowns needing zero interest rates.
post 1679016443 03-15-2023, 01:27 PM
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#2787
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Swiss regulators blinked already.

Announcement coming looks like in few hours.

Here comes another backstop.

They are putting brush fires out left and right.



Hard to argue atm that central banks are just buying time here.



Record rate cutting and held them down too long

Crazy rate hiking to fix mistake.

Than something went boom / the thing that nobody expected would go boom regional banks.

Pure risk mismanagement from tech clowns needing zero interest rates.
Tempted to buy Wells Fargo puts… they suck
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1679017313 03-15-2023, 01:42 PM
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#2788
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Tempted to buy Wells Fargo puts… they suck
If I learned anything since last week.

When shiit starts hitting fan.

They all run to the bank named Apple.

Safety play is Apple now lmao.
post 1679019333 03-15-2023, 02:21 PM
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#2789
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It's actually crazy that Apple is still trading not far off from its ATH at a $2.4trillion valuation

Imagine being in Saudi Arabia with Aramco pulling a $161billion profit and the population there is only 36million people, they'll start buying up gold just to pave the streets with it
post 1679034313 03-15-2023, 07:14 PM
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#2790
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There we go futures now positive.

Swiss version of bailout.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-...nt-202303.html





Unrelated Warren is like discount on OXY.

"Berkshire Hathaway Buys 7.9 Million Occidental Shares"

Think they are slowly going for complete takeover with OXY.

What else could it be?

They own 30% of float I think now.
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