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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1679122753 03-17-2023, 11:35 AM
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#2821
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Here are the latest inventories, crude has had a pretty substantial recovery. Gasoline is middle lowerish of a pretty tight range, and diesel is still low. I think diesel is moreso what feels into prices of stuff like food.





If interest rates continue going up, that will likely create further downward pressure on demand and I'd imagine that would be when they look to refill -- they also surely want to avoid supporting revenues for Russia. I believe much of the inventory they released was heavy crude, so it'll be interesting to see if that's what they would refill with.

Everything will get hammered if interest rates do continue up and the economy begins really feeling the effects
post 1679123233 03-17-2023, 11:43 AM
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#2822
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Originally Posted By Travis99⏩
Should have held nvda
Must have listened to Carbon
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post 1679124543 03-17-2023, 12:08 PM
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#2823
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I am long term NVDA retirement shareholder will never sell but bump this post by end of year and see where NVDA is at with those magical 160 p/e

Work in tech and hold too much of it and if you think those metrics that NVDA projections are valid and worth the price right now than just LOLLLL.


.....................



merica moment right here yesterday happened


post 1679125443 03-17-2023, 12:29 PM
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#2824
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I am long term NVDA retirement shareholder will never sell but bump this post by end of year and see where NVDA is at with those magical 160 p/e

Work in tech and hold too much of it and if you think those metrics that NVDA projections are valid and worth the price right now than just LOLLLL.


.....................



merica moment right here yesterday happened


Tell me when the market and market valuations made sense.
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post 1679128343 03-17-2023, 01:22 PM
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#2825
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Why are FRC going back to crisis levels? People presuming equity value just isn’t going to be there? They shouldn’t lose value on their bonds.. banks just dropped them $30b to buy 13 week bonds for a free 4%. Not to mention all the fed backstopping.
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post 1679130553 03-17-2023, 02:03 PM
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#2826
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Why are FRC going back to crisis levels? People presuming equity value just isn’t going to be there? They shouldn’t lose value on their bonds.. banks just dropped them $30b to buy 13 week bonds for a free 4%. Not to mention all the fed backstopping.
Won't be enough.

Rumor going around apparently Bank of America is going to be buy them for nothing basically.
post 1679133043 03-17-2023, 02:52 PM
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#2827
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Does DCA'n on red days ever get old?!

Dropped another 20% in today on the usuals (BND, VOO, VUG, VYM). Building up a sizable self-managed account here and really starting to see the power of compound interest.

The first 100k was definitely the toughest, but the second flew by. From what I read, the 100k marks come quicker and quicker and the hard work to get past that first 100k feels so rewarding.

Most people in here talk about short term plays, but there's huge value in keeping those long term goals in place too.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1679133633 03-17-2023, 03:03 PM
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#2828
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Does DCA'n on red days ever get old?!

Dropped another 20% in today on the usuals (BND, VOO, VUG, VYM). Building up a sizable self-managed account here and really starting to see the power of compound interest.

The first 100k was definitely the toughest, but the second flew by. From what I read, the 100k marks come quicker and quicker and the hard work to get past that first 100k feels so rewarding.

Most people in here talk about short term plays, but there's huge value in keeping those long term goals in place too.
From books I've read, 99% of the time no one can beat a DCA approach over a period of time. Maybe hedge funds and nancy pelosi can, but not us plebs.

Agreed, first 100k is the longest, which makes sense, since the compounding really takes over.
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post 1679133703 03-17-2023, 03:05 PM
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#2829
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Does DCA'n on red days ever get old?!

Dropped another 20% in today on the usuals (BND, VOO, VUG, VYM). Building up a sizable self-managed account here and really starting to see the power of compound interest.

The first 100k was definitely the toughest, but the second flew by. From what I read, the 100k marks come quicker and quicker and the hard work to get past that first 100k feels so rewarding.

Most people in here talk about short term plays, but there's huge value in keeping those long term goals in place too.
Yea but talk about snooze fest, some of us love being right about our stonk picks. In all srs though that is how my long term port is set up (retirement account) robinhood is just the car slush fund
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1679136073 03-17-2023, 03:53 PM
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#2830
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
From books I've read, 99% of the time no one can beat a DCA approach over a period of time. Maybe hedge funds and nancy pelosi can, but not us plebs.

Agreed, first 100k is the longest, which makes sense, since the compounding really takes over.
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post 1679137163 03-17-2023, 04:18 PM
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#2831
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Rob did you have calls on SBNY?


did you hear the uproar going on with SIBV.

those that had puts are not allowed to exercise in OCC.

brokers not respecting rules.


super sketchy once shiit get delisted its gone it seems.
post 1679137423 03-17-2023, 04:22 PM
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#2832
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Rob did you have calls on SBNY?


did you hear the uproar going on with SIBV.

those that had puts are not allowed to exercise in OCC.

brokers not respecting rules.


super sketchy once shiit get delisted its gone it seems.
I have 1 april call for SBNY at $50 if I remember correctly. It was $500 and I assumed its worth 0. I heard BAC is acquiring them monday potentially so we will see I guess?
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post 1679138333 03-17-2023, 04:44 PM
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#2833
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
By all means go post in that thread with the trailer trash. You’ll have a lot of future plans to talk about
I have no quarrel with you, RobParks2M.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1679142483 03-17-2023, 06:05 PM
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#2834
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
There is a real possibility oil goes under $45 this year.

If oil did collapse, what are possible causes?

Pandemic? Recession? Surplus.
Interesting. I've been overweight in my active trading account on O&G since march 2020 - been a good buy. Will probably start selling. Sad to see it go.

Good question. Probably all of the above. O&G is always so ridiculously boom or bust. I know my houston bros have been busy throwing together O&G deals, meaning that some exploration and capex is happening despite the biden admin. Seems like when Saudi Arabia sees texas start to come alive they let prices fall.

So yeah, combination of the pandemic disappearing, fears on demand, and supply ticking up. And saudi fukking with US producers.
mo e
post 1679145203 03-17-2023, 07:13 PM
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#2835
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Inb4 someone asks if Credit Suisse is a buy.
post 1679145943 03-17-2023, 07:32 PM
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#2836
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My oil companies have a breakeven price of like mid $30s Brent, I expect them to make loads of money for many years to come and continue paying it out to investors who stick around

Only real interest is in finding growth stuff to buy as a hedge/diversification, all my holdings right now are in the retirement account and will likely just stay there for the next 10-20 years
post 1679149603 03-17-2023, 08:46 PM
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#2837
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
Inb4 someone asks if Credit Suisse is a buy.
I don’t know why anyone would buy Suisse. UBS is allegedly gonna buy the whole thing, but I don’t think it’s gonna be a very friendly deal to shareholders LMAO.

I think all regional banks gonna get cucked tbh. Their capital exodus has been pretty astounding. And now even with fed intervention they are gonna lose out on income on all the bonds they sell back and their interest income will crater anyway. I’m guessing many small banks are going to have to cut dividends and if they raised interest paid on checking/savings accounts they’ll have to drop those too
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post 1679150283 03-17-2023, 08:58 PM
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#2838
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Yea but talk about snooze fest, some of us love being right about our stonk picks. In all srs though that is how my long term port is set up (retirement account) robinhood is just the car slush fund
I don’t know man, seeing $$ increase is pretty exciting to me. I look forward to every Friday and am always pumped to plug the different incomes into my excel file, see my 20% figure, divvy up my buys, and place those orders.

It’s exciting as hell to me. Not in an adrenaline rush kinda way, but in an accomplishment kinda way.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1679166833 03-18-2023, 08:45 AM
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#2839
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I don’t know man, seeing $$ increase is pretty exciting to me. I look forward to every Friday and am always pumped to plug the different incomes into my excel file, see my 20% figure, divvy up my buys, and place those orders.

It’s exciting as hell to me. Not in an adrenaline rush kinda way, but in an accomplishment kinda way.
You're the guy in the room full of porn stars talking about the joys of condom on missionary. And Im right there with you holding hands and making eye contact, afraid to try the dirty stuff.
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post 1679172823 03-18-2023, 10:34 AM
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#2840
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Originally Posted By naich⏩
You're the guy in the room full of porn stars talking about the joys of condom on missionary. And Im right there with you holding hands and making eye contact, afraid to try the dirty stuff.
I’m the guy with a proven plan that I’m not veering from.

Also, been nothing but rawdog’n for the last 20 years.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1679189393 03-18-2023, 03:58 PM
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#2841
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I don’t know man, seeing $$ increase is pretty exciting to me. I look forward to every Friday and am always pumped to plug the different incomes into my excel file, see my 20% figure, divvy up my buys, and place those orders.

It’s exciting as hell to me. Not in an adrenaline rush kinda way, but in an accomplishment kinda way.
Aside from selling options and a few other odds and ends I’ve come to this conclusion as well. Anything other than adding consistently hasn’t been productive enough to warrant the time I’d spend researching new stuff. Playing things I’ve already looked at but not adding much else aside from a short term move on SNBY which reaffirmed my previous statement LMAO.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1679189533 03-18-2023, 04:00 PM
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#2842
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Im a bit skeptical about SOFI now myself. I recently moved some money there and just a couple days ago they increased their savings APY to 4%. Im thinking to move all my money to Marcus where they offer 3.75% since its backed by GS. If I'm thinking that way, chances are a lot of other people have had the same thought. What happens when these smaller banks have a loss of deposits to such an extent? Cant be good, FDIC can only cover so much even for people under the $250k limit. If something snaps across the entire country, FDIC protection won't help assuming they have to contend with numerous banks failing concurrently.
Tug this is silly. Why would Sofi not pay depositors back? Think about it. When did they get their bank charter.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1679194733 03-18-2023, 06:07 PM
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#2843
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Little more than a year ago. I just don't have a great understanding of how all this works. I get that FDIC insures up to $250k - but what happens if there is a domino effect and we see FDIC having to back multiple banks? Do they have enough funds for that kind of situation?

Posted a while back but what about bail-ins?
Where do you think the money is gonna go???

Also, do you think it’s possible for the fed to run out of doll hairs? Are you concerned there isn’t enough paper in the world to print the dollars?
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1679200203 03-18-2023, 08:13 PM
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#2844
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Aside from selling options and a few other odds and ends I’ve come to this conclusion as well. Anything other than adding consistently hasn’t been productive enough to warrant the time I’d spend researching new stuff. Playing things I’ve already looked at but not adding much else aside from a short term move on SNBY which reaffirmed my previous statement LMAO.
Thanks for the reply. It’s a winning strategy. The best methods for getting things done usually aren’t the shiniest or sexiest. They just work.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1679217093 03-19-2023, 08:46 AM
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#2845
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
The concern is that they are picking and choosing which banks to bail out. Where is the money going to go.. well if there is some black swan event where everyone starts making bank runs, will your money be safer in sofi or one of the bigger banks?
No I mean the money you deposit in the bank. Where do you think it goes? It doesn’t just disappear- banks aren’t degenerately gambling on options and running them to 0. The banks that failed lost 2-3% on face value of bonds because they bought long term bonds in 2020/2021 that pay nothing.

Also UBS to buy CS for $1b. Eat a dick CS shareholders I guess lmao. 12.5 cents on the dollar is all it’s worth LOL
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1679227023 03-19-2023, 12:37 PM
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#2846
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Markets gonna get clapped tomorrow. UBS buying for 2 billion so 50 cents vs closing $2/share Friday.

They are also looking to let bond holders suffer some losses too. As if bond market isn’t significantly bigger than stock market and going to generate an insane amount of volatility
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1679231613 03-19-2023, 02:13 PM
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#2847
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Markets gonna get clapped tomorrow. UBS buying for 2 billion so 50 cents vs closing $2/share Friday.

They are also looking to let bond holders suffer some losses too. As if bond market isn’t significantly bigger than stock market and going to generate an insane amount of volatility
Should be a fun day.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1679232443 03-19-2023, 02:27 PM
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#2848
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Should be a fun day.
This has the potential to get really pull overall markets down if all the banks slide because investor equity continues to get wiped out. Banks move a lot of funds between each other so there is some genuine concern losses could have a big impact for all the banks for the next couple of earnings calls. Long term most banks will be fine but I think there will be lots of panic this week and some concern over the next month. I’m going to keep my eye on bank bonds and see if I can scoop some stable ones at a discount. I’ll look at BAC primarily since Buffet is backing them and maybe JPM.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1679235693 03-19-2023, 03:37 PM
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#2849
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seems like printer is back even more

fed is now pumping liquidity into banks

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20230319a.htm



you can see the price action in Bitcoin

up 45% in 10 days.
post 1679237573 03-19-2023, 04:22 PM
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#2850
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
seems like printer is back even more

fed is now pumping liquidity into banks

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20230319a.htm



you can see the price action in Bitcoin

up 45% in 10 days.
Honestly this is such a joke how far they are willing to unravel everything they’ve done to control inflation because of irresponsible public banks. Let them go under. Cover insured depositors. If federal government loses money attempting to convert assets to cash for depositors then they should garnish C-suite exec wages, bonuses, and any cash from selling shares to cover. If that isn’t enough then I think jail is appropriate. These morons think they can hold the average American hostage and currently they’ve been correct.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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