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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1679779203 03-28-2023, 05:23 PM
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#2971
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I’ve been timing BABA really well. I’m targeting $120, I’ll scale out of some calls there, but ultimately $180 and then $225 are my targets for this year.
post 1679784483 03-28-2023, 06:59 PM
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#2972
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
I’ve been timing BABA really well. I’m targeting $120, I’ll scale out of some calls there, but ultimately $180 and then $225 are my targets for this year.
My Jan24 $150C endorses this ayy lmao
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post 1679788623 03-28-2023, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
is this bullchit?

https://mobile.twitter.com/PTRUMPFOR...88323704561673

i'm on vacation when this supposedly happens lmao wat.

Kenyan president telling people to get rid of their dollars..

https://mobile.twitter.com/JaromeBel...09665217183744

is it happening????
That’s some trumptard trash. Those miserable fuks are the weirdest conspiracy theorists out there currently.
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post 1679793153 03-28-2023, 10:29 PM
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Developing countries are definitely getting hammered by the strength of the USD, not even surprising some would want to push back on it
post 1679795743 03-29-2023, 12:03 AM
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Agree - ppl want out of the dollar. The jig will be up at some point. Maybe in 2 weeks. Maybe in 20 years.

Just gotta tweet once a week that it’s happening in one week and then when it actually happens I’ll called be a prophet
mo e
post 1679797123 03-29-2023, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Agree - ppl want out of the dollar. The jig will be up at some point. Maybe in 2 weeks. Maybe in 20 years.

Just gotta tweet once a week that it’s happening in one week and then when it actually happens I’ll called be aprophet
I prefer The Profit.

Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I predict the $ will be extinct in ~1 decade.

America has no intention of ever paying its debts and it's basically impossible if we keep the dollar.

There is a long history of countries who reach a certain amount of debt/GDP, when they reach this number(which I won't mention) the country goes bankrupt withoneexception...



CHINA!



I don't know what will replace the dollar, it will likely be a digital currency but I doubt it will be BTC.

The Wiemar Republic changed currency because they had no choice.

The samewillhappen in America.







You have been warned.

You're welcome.

Good luck <3.


Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Lol.

Even if it's known by some others it's not "common knowledge".

If the public thought their money would be worthless in a ~decade it would be catastrophic lol.
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post 1679814793 03-29-2023, 10:22 AM
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#2977
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I remember hearing rumors in the early 2000s about Saudis dropping the dollar. Who knows. Might not be the best thing in the short term, but perhaps it'd give the fed less power to manipulate the world economy?

Do we really see coountires selling US treasuries, likely at a gigantic loss?
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post 1679827873 03-29-2023, 01:23 PM
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#2978
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I remember hearing rumors in the early 2000s about Saudis dropping the dollar. Who knows. Might not be the best thing in the short term, but perhaps it'd give the fed less power to manipulate the world economy?

Do we really see coountires selling US treasuries, likely at a gigantic loss?
It’s funny AF to consider when now is genuinely the worst time to be selling them. But yeah I’m sure they’ll take the 2-4% losses to screw the US over
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post 1679836673 03-29-2023, 04:15 PM
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#2979
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US dollar should not be concern ever.

If push came to shove US would just go to war at that point.




.................................................. ................


how about that SVB testimony coming out recently

https://www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/2023/spmar2723.html

FDIC pumped 20 billion into SVB in which 13.3 billion went to 10 depositors insane. who holds $13 B in one bank savings account.

Who did they just bail out?

Sure sounds like it was crypto speculators.




today FDIC was floating around idea that big banks pay for this cost.

https://www.lonetreevoice.com/fdic-f...enders-to-pay/



guess what will this turn into ?

tax payers again on hook in few months they will say herp derp big boys can't pay cause they are risk.

QTE is turning into QE again.
post 1679836753 03-29-2023, 04:16 PM
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#2980
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
It’s funny AF to consider when now is genuinely the worst time to be selling them. But yeah I’m sure they’ll take the 2-4% losses to screw the US over
It's not likely to occur immediately but there are many countries who are being squeezed by a strong dollar and they are taking notes.



Bank holdups snowball in Lebanon as depositors demand their own money

- Five more depositors hold up banks to access their money
- Depositors cash out $60,000, only some in custody
- Banks announced three-day closure over security concerns

BEIRUT, Sept 16 (Reuters) -Five Lebanese banks were held up by depositors seeking access to their own moneyfrozen in the banking system on Friday, in a spiraling spate of holdups this week spurred by frustration over a financial implosion with no end in sight.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...gs-2022-09-16/



The Fed is limiting access to dollars and banks in other countries can't pay out deposits in dollars lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1679837143 03-29-2023, 04:22 PM
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#2981
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
US dollar should not be concern ever.

If push came to shove US would just go to war at that point.
Go to war with the advanced world or the primitive?

There is a big league difference.

Let's declare war on China lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1679838033 03-29-2023, 04:36 PM
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We know USDC cratered at the same time because Circle had over $3billion stored at SVB as part of their deposits backing up the stablecoin pegged to the dollar, definitely seems likely it could have been other stablecoins or crypto exchanges who had exposure there
post 1679838293 03-29-2023, 04:43 PM
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#2983
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The failure/demise of the US Dollar is right up there with "Peak Oil" and "Global Warming will be irreversible in 10 years" (said every year for the last 30+ years).
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post 1679838373 03-29-2023, 04:44 PM
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#2984
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I wish they release they name of those 10 depositors were they corporations or Sam Fried type crypto whales
post 1679839703 03-29-2023, 05:14 PM
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#2985
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
The failure/demise of the US Dollar is right up there with "Peak Oil" and "Global Warming will be irreversible in 10 years" (said every year for the last 30+ years).
An alternative has risen in the last 30 years, it is our biggest threat but instead we focus on meaningless things.

If you have dependents, you have an obligation keep an open mind.

Good luck to you and yours <3.



Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and more than 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.

China is now an upper-middle-income country. It will be important going forward that poverty alleviation efforts increasingly shift to addressing the vulnerabilities faced by the large number of people still considered poor by the standards of middle-income countries, including those living in urban areas.

China’s high growth based on investment, low-cost manufacturing and exports has largely reached its limits and has led to economic, social, and environmental imbalances. Reducing these imbalances requires shifts in the structure of the economy from manufacturing to high value services, from investment to consumption, and from high to low carbon intensity.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview



The American consumer is currently the strongest in the world but that does not guarantee future returns if you know what I'm sayin lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1679840813 03-29-2023, 05:38 PM
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#2986
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
It's not likely to occur immediately but there are many countries who are being squeezed by a strong dollar and they are taking notes.



Bank holdups snowball in Lebanon as depositors demand their own money

- Five more depositors hold up banks to access their money
- Depositors cash out $60,000, only some in custody
- Banks announced three-day closure over security concerns

BEIRUT, Sept 16 (Reuters) -Five Lebanese banks were held up by depositors seeking access to their own moneyfrozen in the banking system on Friday, in a spiraling spate of holdups this week spurred by frustration over a financial implosion with no end in sight.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...gs-2022-09-16/



The Fed is limiting access to dollars and banks in other countries can't pay out deposits in dollars lol.
Perhaps I’m wrong, but to me it seems selling Tbills would exacerbate the problem rather than solve it. It would be a short term source of dollars but the losses wouldn’t be pretty.

@carbon did the government actually lose $20B bailing them out?? Didn’t they take their bonds to balance? What was the real loss the government assumed on behalf of the depositors?
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post 1679841523 03-29-2023, 05:52 PM
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#2987
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
US dollar should not be concern ever.

If push came to shove US would just go to war at that point.




.................................................. ................


how about that SVB testimony coming out recently

https://www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/2023/spmar2723.html

FDIC pumped 20 billion into SVB in which 13.3 billion went to 10 depositors insane. who holds $13 B in one bank savings account.

Who did they just bail out?

Sure sounds like it was crypto speculators.




today FDIC was floating around idea that big banks pay for this cost.

https://www.lonetreevoice.com/fdic-f...enders-to-pay/



guess what will this turn into ?

tax payers again on hook in few months they will say herp derp big boys can't pay cause they are risk.

QTE is turning into QE again.
We all knew the largest depositors would get their cut. FDIC or someone is probably getting a percentage of that back too for that decision.

WSJ reported on another bank getting billions from quite a few big banks. Forget the name.
Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
It's not likely to occur immediately but there are many countries who are being squeezed by a strong dollar and they are taking notes.



Bank holdups snowball in Lebanon as depositors demand their own money

- Five more depositors hold up banks to access their money
- Depositors cash out $60,000, only some in custody
- Banks announced three-day closure over security concerns

BEIRUT, Sept 16 (Reuters) -Five Lebanese banks were held up by depositors seeking access to their own moneyfrozen in the banking system on Friday, in a spiraling spate of holdups this week spurred by frustration over a financial implosion with no end in sight.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...gs-2022-09-16/



The Fed is limiting access to dollars and banks in other countries can't pay out deposits in dollars lol.
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/14/11230...d-savings-bank

This lady held up a bank to get money out for cancer treatment.
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post 1679842503 03-29-2023, 06:06 PM
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#2988
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Perhaps I’m wrong, but to me it seems selling Tbills would exacerbate the problem rather than solve it. It would be a short term source of dollars but the losses wouldn’t be pretty.

@carbon did the government actually lose $20B bailing them out?? Didn’t they take their bonds to balance? What was the real loss the government assumed on behalf of the depositors?
Its right here.

https://www.lonetreevoice.com/fdic-f...enders-to-pay/

what will JPM do to raise their losses?

offload it to its customers.




The question of how to spread the cost of SVB’s and Signature’s failures is already a hot topic in Washington, where lawmakers have pressed FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over who will shoulder the burden — especially after an unusual decision to backstop all of those banks’ deposits. The extraordinary measure saved legions of tech startups and wealthy customers whose balances far exceeded the FDIC’s typical $250,000 limit on coverage.

“I’m concerned that Arkansans will have to subsidize Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Banks deposits, and maybe others that come forward,” Republican Senator John Boozman told Yellen at a hearing last week. “Will the community banks get charged that special assessment?”

She assured him the FDIC has leeway in deciding which banks will pay.

“We’re going to be keenly sensitive to the impact,” Gruenberg added at a hearing on Wednesday, when asked about the strain on community banks. “We have the discretion to tailor that assessment to the institutions that most directly benefited.”

When the FDIC set out to raise $5.5 billion with a special assessment in 2009, JPMorgan said the surcharge extracted $675 million from its second-quarter earnings.

The impact from SVB and Signature could easily go far beyond that. The agency estimated Sunday that SVB’s failure will cost $20 billion, on top of the $2.5 billion bite it expects from Signature. Unclear is how quickly the FDIC wants to collect the assessment.

Recently, some large banks have also faced pressure to shore up the balance sheet of another troubled lender, First Republic Bank. For now, regulators are giving that bank more time to reach a deal to bolster its balance sheet, people with knowledge of the situation said late last week.

But after conversations with government officials, some Wall Street executives have surmised that even if their firms don’t inject more equity into First Republic, they could still be left on the hook another way: Paying into a special FDIC assessment if the agency intervenes.
post 1679881523 03-30-2023, 11:55 AM
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#2989
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BABA aaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!! Gimme $106.7, retrace a little, then blast off to $121 please.
post 1679884703 03-30-2023, 12:57 PM
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#2990
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^^^ something that I learned from work

SVB was big on weed business and some big companies and banks had money there for that reason... in our case wasn't THAT much but I can tell u is NOT nothing...

there is a lot about SVB that is not being told that at some point will come out
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1679891063 03-30-2023, 03:04 PM
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#2991
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
^^^ something that I learned from work

SVB was big on weed business and some big companies and banks had money there for that reason... in our case wasn't THAT much but I can tell u is NOT nothing...

there is a lot about SVB that is not being told that at some point will come out
I dumped my CSP on FRC. They have a $15b hole in their balance sheet and it’s bad enough no one wants to buy them. They are screwed and the government doesn’t even want to deal with them. They are literally shoveling money into them until they can kick the can down the road far enough till it blows over.
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post 1679907603 03-30-2023, 07:30 PM
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#2992
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Trump indicted:

- MAGAtards: "this is the fall of the republic!"
- LibTards: "fukking PWND! tour's over"

Smart ppl:

Digital World Acquisition (NASDAQWAC), the blank-check company taking Trump's social media company public, rose 11% after hours Thursday following the news.
mo e
post 1679932453 03-31-2023, 07:54 AM
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#2993
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Trump indicted:

- MAGAtards: "this is the fall of the republic!"
- LibTards: "fukking PWND! tour's over"

Smart ppl:

Digital World Acquisition (NASDAQWAC), the blank-check company taking Trump's social media company public, rose 11% after hours Thursday following the news.
he is being investigated for that one too lol

dude has like 5 investigations going on and the one in georgia ain't looking pretty either

at the end of the day the Rep. party is going to roll with desantis and throw trump under the buss imo
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1679948473 03-31-2023, 11:48 AM
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#2994
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Saw an article about republic first bank being upset their stock is down huge due to similar name as first republic. Bought some shares this morning and their already up 10% happy Friday y’all!ticker FRBK not FRC
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1679960703 03-31-2023, 02:57 PM
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#2995
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good quarter end pumping huh lol


strong market is strong


Apple / Msft / Google / Amazon whole market

Combined market cap of those 4 = 9 Trillion.

Total market cap of sp 500 = 30 Trillion

Basically 30% weight is holding market together. If you add nvda/tesla/meta you get to 11.5 Trillion so 39 ish percent.


Year to Date

post 1679962303 03-31-2023, 03:26 PM
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre post_id=1679960703]good quarter end pumping huh lol


strong market is strong


Apple / Msft / Google / Amazon whole market

Combined market cap of those 4 = 9 Trillion.

Total market cap of sp 500 = 30 Trillion

Basically 30% weight is holding market together. If you add nvda/tesla/meta you get to 11.5 Trillion so 39 ish percent.


Year to Date

[img]https://i.imgur.com/MqZXXde.png[/im][/QUOTE]This is why I'm underweighting these megacap names and not buying S&P500 for my index allocations anymore. These rallies are pure multiple expansion on companies that are growing fairly slowly. Not saying they aren't great companies (well, maybe outside of Amazon), but I am always skeptical of multiple expansions because this can change on a whim.

The whole market just seems to be hoping and praying that the Fed will cut rates, but I don't see it and I think the market is underestimating the notion that we're seeing some major shifts this decade (deglobalization, decreasing population, etc.) that will keep inflation and rates higher for longer. Tech can still do well, since it's asset-lite and less dependent on debt, but you need to pick your spots and really understand the niche it fills and ensure the unit economics make sense. Even when rates inevitably go lower, I highly doubt it ends up being like the 10s era where profitability/cash flow won't matter.
post 1679967463 03-31-2023, 05:17 PM
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#2997
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
This is why I'm underweighting these megacap names and not buying S&P500 for my index allocations anymore. These rallies are pure multiple expansion on companies that are growing fairly slowly. Not saying they aren't great companies (well, maybe outside of Amazon), but I am always skeptical of multiple expansions because this can change on a whim.

The whole market just seems to be hoping and praying that the Fed will cut rates, but I don't see it and I think the market is underestimating the notion that we're seeing some major shifts this decade (deglobalization, decreasing population, etc.) that will keep inflation and rates higher for longer. Tech can still do well, since it's asset-lite and less dependent on debt, but you need to pick your spots and really understand the niche it fills and ensure the unit economics make sense. Even when rates inevitably go lower, I highly doubt it ends up being like the 10s era where profitability/cash flow won't matter.
Couldn't agree more with your post.

All these companies gave guidance their growth will be flat to negative going forward.

Think there is going to be some big surprises in one of these earnings coming up in few weeks or the next quarter.

Investors have decided to run to these big market caps as safety play in times when Fed fund rate is 5% peak crazy.

Right now we are in peak euphoria phase of AI chatgpt everything hype phase.






Just want to add something about this "AI" push.

Chat gpt 3.5 the version everyone gets for free nothing burger. Consider this like having tesla self driving. worthless.

However Chat gpt 4 paid version with plugins very impressive.

Quick example what chatgpt4 plugin version can do.

Have business idea and need website. In 10 minutes via plugin you can have wordpress syle website running fully front end/back end done via just few key words prompt to ai to do it.


Also for programmers github copilot x massive leap.


Think big regulation change will be coming, lot of jobs across many sectors will be at risk. With 2024 election around the corner expect this to be big talking point.
post 1679977853 03-31-2023, 09:09 PM
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  1. SipNPiz
  2. 2 B Tan is 2 B Glorious!
  3. Join Date: Feb 2010
  4. Location: United States
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Saw an article about republic first bank being upset their stock is down huge due to similar name as first republic. Bought some shares this morning and their already up 10% happy Friday y’all!ticker FRBK not FRC
Ah I’m up 30% for the day lulz
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1679978263 03-31-2023, 09:18 PM
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#2999
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
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Interesting stuff, I haven't looked much into what exactly this can do but would think automation will mostly lead to expanded deployment rather than replacement at least until some critical mass is reached.

Like how we have rolled out LEDs that consume far less power than incandescent bulbs so you'd expect power consumption to drop, but then we just start installing lighting in more areas and overall power usage continues increasing. In the same way, automation could just facilitate expanded reach and you could have one person + AI doing the work of 10 previously but the Client base could then expand 10x. This feels like exactly what society should be gunning for, though there may be bumps along the way.


So many types of technology have massively increased efficiency and we just end up doing more of it rather than the efficiency leading to less humans needed.
post 1680050423 04-02-2023, 12:11 PM
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#3000
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  3. Join Date: Nov 2016
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Interesting stuff, I haven't looked much into what exactly this can do but would think automation will mostly lead to expanded deployment rather than replacement at least until some critical mass is reached.

Like how we have rolled out LEDs that consume far less power than incandescent bulbs so you'd expect power consumption to drop, but then we just start installing lighting in more areas and overall power usage continues increasing. In the same way, automation could just facilitate expanded reach and you could have one person + AI doing the work of 10 previously but the Client base could then expand 10x. This feels like exactly what society should be gunning for, though there may be bumps along the way.


So many types of technology have massively increased efficiency and we just end up doing more of it rather than the efficiency leading to less humans needed.
Saudis cut 1mm barrels a day today
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