google with casual $250B add in market cap in 3 days because analyst now bullish on Google AI due to investor day yesterday lmao

when Apple announces AI powered Siri it will hit $200 and nasdaq / sp will hit ath.



price discovery no longer.

all the eggs in one basket of 5 names apple / msft / google / nvda / meta

Lulz. Meanwhile PACW lost 10% of their deposits last Thursday/Friday but everything is fine!! LMAO.

I hopped into some WAL-A shares yielding 8%. At least they are gaining deposits.

Man this market is sooo boring.


You get bit of excitement from some data and than next day back to grind of nothing.

Chyna

I'm just trynna figure out how the CME FedWatch has an almost 1/2 shot of a rate cut in two months

Its just a bet.

Doesn't have to be right. So far bond guys have been wrong all year.

Fedwatch tool is calculated off SOFR (secured overnight financing rates) that big traders / banks can move with size.


Next month they reach deal on Debt ceiling and market pump 2-3% and they reprice the whole fed fund rate tool.

Same way one bad CPI report can change the fed fund rate in instant.


To me what is odd how passive funds are just loading on big tech names that are now eating all the weight in index funds.

Seems hella risky to be riding 5-6 names.

Imagine day where Apple has bad news say -5%

you will be dragging everything with it.

As a traditional value investor, what I'm confused about is how the market changed the narrative on tech so quickly. I understand why from 2012-2021, tech went up exponentially with all the free money and growth they had, but I thought that cycle finally fixed itself and people would come to their senses with rates going up. Now, ChatGPT comes out, which isn't even profitable at the moment for $MSFT from what I understand, and we suddenly go back to clown world markets where tech can do no wrong? Meanwhile, energy stonks that are profitable even at $50 and are reporting high earnings are sinking because oil is almost at $70, instead of $80-90? It's not even like $AAPL, $META, etc. are growing rapidly. $META lays off a bunch of folks and nearly triples in value seemingly overnight even though advertising is their core business, which goes down in a recession?

I just don't get it anymore. All I know is that I'm still betting this is going to end badly in the not-too-distant future. I keep DCAing in a bit because you never know when the market will turn. But for now, I'm holding onto as much cash as I can and only deploying heavier amounts once we're below 3800. Recession hasn't even started, companies are barely beating lowered estimates while issuing bad guidance, yet we're still trading near the top of the range. I can't imagine what'll happen once layoffs really start to hit hard (it's starting to filter into other industries beyond tech now) and consumer spending falls off a cliff.

I still think we retest near the Oct lows before we force a Fed pivot and move higher. My thesis always has been you cannot raise the cost of borrowing in a supply-shortage driven market and generate a soft landing, and I'll continue to stick with that, even though all my picks have been admittedly **** this year.

Looks like there are at least a couple or perhaps it’s just a decent sized regional bank struggling. Bank term funding program has jumped another $8 billion. I’d lay odds 50/50 PACW or another bank folds by Sunday.

Just saw a CNBC video today saying credit card debt is going to reach a trillion and is at an all-time high. Kinda confused...

Puts on BUD? This thing may totally fuk them. People are starting to learn all the beers they make. Plus gay bars boycotting as well.

Here's a bunch of the stats being referenced by TransUnion in articles today/recently

https://newsroom.transunion.com/q1-2023-ciir/

Doesn't look so bad when compared to the same time in 2020

Those auto loans though.

I googled "WSJ auto loans" quite a few alarming articles....

Autos are definitely one spot where it's worse lol

Mortgages don't look too bad but honestly not sure what most of the indicators suggest right off the hop or longer-term trends looking back before the pandemic

Housing supply is tight and anyone who owned a house prior to 2021 has probably locked in <3.5% interest. I can’t imagine the amount of people underwater on 5%+ adds up to a significant number. Job market is still strong too so at this point repo’d houses will sell just fine.

Vehicles on the other hand are a whole other story and plenty of idiots are super underwater on those and odds of repo sales making creditor whole aren’t nearly as good. At some point auto makers I imagine will feel the pinch on sales when credit to buy is hard to come by. Used market should start dropping significantly if it hasn’t already.


also, when will all the banks start cutting their dividends?? I saw PACW paid a 1 cent dividend on common shares leaving the door open for their preferred shares to get regular dividend (20% annually with shares at $9/each). Too bad they are going under in the near future. But others doing this will probably cut demand for dividend funds once shares are dropping AND income from dividends drops enough. Double whammy for them.

if you have the time listen to Stanley Druckenmiller interview few days ago

just from 3 minutes onward to about 10 minutes don't need to listen whole thing




This is legendary wallstreet investor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Druckenmiller


Asset Bubble is building.

Bidding up tech stocks that are showing declining yoy revenue due to AI that will cause massive job losses in the future is great strategy. (said nobody)

good news ARK and PLTR bagholders. Bruh why didnt she buy when it was below 6 dolla


why didnt she listen to elias here




Wood’s Ark Invest bought around $43 million worth of Palantir Technologies May 10. The acquisition was spread across two of Ark’s ETFs; the Ark Innovation ETF snapped up 3,757,087 shares, and the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF added 614,547 shares.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) - Get Free Report stock closed at $9.94 May 10.

This latest investment into the software company that was founded by Peter Thiel in 2003 comes just days after Palantir beat estimates on its first quarter earnings, reporting revenue of $525 million for the quarter -- representing an 18% jump in revenue year over year -- compared to the $506 million anticipated by analysts.

This is the company’s second profitable quarter in a row.

CEO Alex Karp, in a letter to shareholders, said that he expects Palantir to remain profitable throughout the year.

“We were profitable again this quarter. And we now anticipate that we will remain profitable each quarter through the end of the year,” Karp wrote. “The depth of engagement with and demand for our new Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is without precedent.”

Sorry to keep harping on banks, but it’s what I’ve been interested in lately since all regionals are suffering but only some will go under.

Is all commercial real estate “exposure” the same? I see WAL has 28% of loans considered exposure- but are commercial apartments under that classification? Is there a breakdown by retail store front, office space, warehouse, apartments/condos/multi family housing? How is NYCB holding up with 71% exposure?

I'm not worried about AI. This is a topic for another day, but I think it'll improve productivity and help earnings in the long-run. I'm more worried about stagflation and when we're going to climb out of this mess because I think there's some long-term, negative demographic/social trends that are underlying a lot of this inflation that aren't just going to resolve themselves very easily. I'm worried about a Japanification of the US stonk market, which is why I'm now buying the total world market fund instead of the S&P

Da fuk is every1 ?

Once again my divvy port is outperforming my yolo port today

MMP up hyooooge, was not expecting that, feels like a little taste of XOM last year

Just chilling here, doing the usual Friday DCA’n with 20% pre-tax income while I laugh at the plebs who can’t because of their gluttonous debt.

Vanguard Roth and Vanguard Self-Managed Brokerage accounts.

Been steady for 5 years now.

market boring.


didn't most leave for misc trading discord , where the real pros trade lmao.

I’m a Telos bag holder but the CEO has been buying 200,000 shares per day so it’s heading back up!

LOL

190 p/e

30 p/s

800B market cap

no dividend

eps this year negative and next 5 years low teens


this is your new Tesla of 2023.





I am about 90% sure atm there is tech bubble building here.

Analyst forecasting 30x Forward sales in declining YoY revenue is pure fraud.


This smells like Meta when it was ******** back in Feb 2022 and shiit tanked hard.



13F came out for Q1 2023.

Every big dog is hiding in nvda/apple/msft/goog/meta/amzn

only random names that stood out

BRBR / V / HUBS / JD / MELI

So how you playin it carbon?? I think it’s worth a look at trying to go short some way some how. Indexes are just holding market up and things getting love from QQQ and SPY together seem to be doing best. I wunder Y.


In other news I’m thankful I went for WAL-A shares and didn’t stick with pacw. I think they are poised to make it and keep doing well.

CBDC is probably the worst thing that I can think of to happen to society.

NVDA has earnings May 24.

If this thing stays at these levels into earnings.

Put Spread to limit loss in case I am wrong and NVDA keep going higher.

Been looking at May 26 NVDA put spread no strikes yet.

Will let you know.

Waiting for next week to pull trigger.

I don't think a lot of the general public has a clue of the issues and repercussions this would bring. I've not heard one person even talk about.

Even the lawmakers aren't thinking long term. They just want as much control as possible. They already control banking and manipulate the currency as they see fit for whatever agenda they have. Imagine the control they have over individuals when they control their money.

Most of population doesn't have a clue what happened to Canada and how their bank accounts were seized during the trucker protest.

power squeeze from hell


based off 2 things


-debt ceiling deal (raised higher) could be signed by end of next week

-big funds are now starting to push the narrative that AI will improve company margins significantly while also saying 300 million jobs will be lost



you know the deal fire employees = stock up

Shut up CarbonCuck. You are a Joe Biden supporter. You don't deserve wealth. You deserve misery.