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Forum ยป Canadian mortgage-cels on suicide watch
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Thread: Canadian mortgage-cels on suicide watch

post 1683016233 05-19-2023, 02:33 PM
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#31
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Originally Posted By DeadlyStriker⏩
My mother's commercial buildings that she manages are owned by a Canadian corporation. She basically said she's just waiting for the buildings to go to the banks. The loans for the properties are adjustable rate mortgages and they haven't been able to make their interest payments since march. Something a 500k a month just in interest payments (these are big buildings).

Commercial real estate is fooked too. These Canadians and their adjustable rate mortgages...
I don't know how commercial buildings are going to stay afloat once companies saw how much they can save letting their entire work force work from home.
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post 1683016643 05-19-2023, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted By benedetto27⏩
I remember thinking the 250,000 immigrants in 2015 under Harper (plus another 250,000 temporary workes/students) was too much.

But maybe it was debatable with the economy booming, infrastructure was keeping up, maybe we could handle it.

Now, Canada is bursting at the seams, infrastructure growth is the same as 2015 and Trudeau is going full steam ahead at 1 million plus a year, probably ramping it up to 1.5 million coming in by 2025.

I doubt the housing market will ever correct. Too much immigration, investment and money laundering. If worse comes to worse, they will bailout the mortgages somehow just like they did in 2020.

Fuark I remember my first apartment I rented, there was at least 5 people living there before in a one-bedroom.

Should really try to move to New Brunswick to avoid this mess.
lol bruh

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post 1683016693 05-19-2023, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted By Kev1972⏩
I don't know how commercial buildings are going to stay afloat once companies saw how much they can save letting their entire work force work from home.
I have two current clients who are business owners - one let go of 75% of their space and the other closed the office entirely. Another guy is a partner of a major accounting place with 200 staff and he says they likely will let go of 3 of the 5 floors they currently occupy once they can.

Commercial landlords aren't lowering their prices though, which is insane with the vacancy rates.
post 1683016853 05-19-2023, 02:43 PM
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#34
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Originally Posted By WoofieNugget⏩
I have two current clients who are business owners - one let go of 75% of their space and the other closed the office entirely. Another guy is a partner of a major accounting place with 200 staff and he says they likely will let go of 3 of the 5 floors they currently occupy once they can.

Commercial landlords aren't lowering their prices though, which is insane with the vacancy rates.
it's going to happen all at once when there's forced selling.
look at that tower in SF. it sold for $300 million in 2019 I think and is now going to be sold for approximately $60 million. an 80% wipeout.
post 1683017123 05-19-2023, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Staller432⏩
it's going to happen all at once when there's forced selling.
look at that tower in SF. it sold for $300 million in 2019 I think and is now going to be sold for approximately $60 million. an 80% wipeout.
Damn wonder if they could remodel it as residential.
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post 1683017683 05-19-2023, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted By benedetto27⏩
Now, Canada is bursting at the seams, infrastructure growth is the same as 2015 and Trudeau is going full steam ahead at 1 million plus a year, probably ramping it up to 1.5 million coming in by 2025.
Jeez that's ridiculous. Written on Trudeau's tombstone "I'm sorry"
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post 1683017953 05-19-2023, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
In Canada we typically lock in rates for five years and then renew at the end of that term, there are no 20-30 year fixed rates here.

The benefit of that has been lower rates than what were available in the US, my one mortgage is locked in at 1.69% until 2026.
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post 1683018293 05-19-2023, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted By Kev1972⏩
I don't know how commercial buildings are going to stay afloat once companies saw how much they can save letting their entire work force work from home.
It's bad. So basically my mom's main building has a company that takes up 80% of the leasing space. Giant company. They haven't had 1 person come back since 2020. Their rent is something like 500k a month. I can't remember the numbers but it is absurd. That company instead leased a smaller space in Downtown Chicago and is paying both rents, but has an option in 2025 to dismiss their lease instead of holding onto it until 2028. It is insane what some of these companies are doing.

Her other building just had a company go for WFH fully and the building is only 30% full. None of these companies plan too or have renewed their leases. These buildings cash flows are drying up.

So basically the only commercial real estate that will be okay during this are the buildings that are considered Class A. Those are the newest buildings, high tech, best locations with state of the art everything. All the class B and class C buildings are done. My mom's are class B because they are getting to be a bit older.

You're right, the work from home debacle will crumble commercial real estate within the next few years as leases expire. Going to be crazy.
post 1683018583 05-19-2023, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted By WoofieNugget⏩
I have two current clients who are business owners - one let go of 75% of their space and the other closed the office entirely. Another guy is a partner of a major accounting place with 200 staff and he says they likely will let go of 3 of the 5 floors they currently occupy once they can.

Commercial landlords aren't lowering their prices though, which is insane with the vacancy rates.
I have multiple friends who have moved out of commercial because of the huge increases in rents and now the spaces/buildings have been vacant for years. Im not in commercial real estate so I dont understand the mindset? Im sure its like that all over.
post 1683018603 05-19-2023, 03:11 PM
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#40
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Yall think i should hang tight on buying any commercial property for now, was looking at unit with 3 tenants (approx 20grand a month) but they asking 6m
post 1683019343 05-19-2023, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted By sooby⏩
rent-cels are kinda screwed too tbh. nobody is safe brahs.

as a mortgage-cel gotta hope you get a significant salary bump or start looking
Yes. If mortgages increase then landlords usually increase rent to cover it.
Originally Posted By Staller432⏩
canadian real estate has done a 50% retracement off its lows.

a few key points:

-there's still so much desperate money sitting on the sidelines ready to jump in.

- the sentiment that canadian real estate perpetually goes higher HAS NOT been broken. it's still viewed as a riskless, free money investment. until and unless that sentiment breaks it will not crash.

-with so many immigrants flooding in it's quite possible there will be no crash.

-the 20 to a home immigrant model and airbnb have fundamentally changed how a homes are valued.
the old single or double income family home model does not necessarily apply.

-the commitment of chinese and indians to pay their mortgage at all costs is far different than your previous white suburban bureaucrat. the indians will pick up a few extra long haul trucking shifts if need be.

-a massive number of homes are owned by investors who are benefiting from this inflationary environment with skyrocketing rents

bottom line, bears have been calling for the canadian real estate bubble to burst for literally 15 years and have been raped left, right and centre while every illiterate off the street has made millions by blindly falling into real estate at any price point.

no one has any clue what will happen.
Foreign ownership seems to be a big factor in Canada. IDK about Indians, but supposedly residential real estate is THE investment for regular Chinese people.
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post 1683020743 05-19-2023, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Yes. If mortgages increase then landlords usually increase rent to cover it.




Foreign ownership seems to be a big factor in Canada. IDK about Indians, but supposedly residential real estate is THE investment for regular Chinese people.
Indians do it differently, because they have no problem moving mutiple people into a living space. My next door neighbours had eight people living in a three bedroom home, three generations including adult children under one roof. Therefore multiple people are contributing to the mortgage.

For people from India where population density is so high, they think nothing about having tons of people in a house together.
post 1683021093 05-19-2023, 04:00 PM
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#43
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Originally Posted By Ratfish⏩
just pay it off

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post 1683021503 05-19-2023, 04:10 PM
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#44
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Originally Posted By ScrillaIsBake⏩
I keep an eye on prices and tbh prices still haven't gone down.
I don't think there's much risk at all from the mortgages themselves tbh, situations like this are why they started doing stress tests back in 2018.

Between the stress tests and enjoying lower rates for the last five years while being approved for mortgage amounts only at what could be afforded at the stress-test rate, doesn't seem like there's a good reason people should be struggling if renewing today.


HELOCs are a greater risk I think
post 1683021703 05-19-2023, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted By WoofieNugget⏩
Most mortgages in Canada are 5 year max - you can get longer, but typically the interest rates are higher and therefore barely anyone does it.

All the people who had FOMO in 2019/2020 as I predicted are coming up in 2024/2025 and a lot of them are staring an increase of 1-2k a month in the face. Don't know a lot of households that can take that type of increase in costs along with groceries, even utilities increasing by 30-50% monthly as well. A lot of them overpaid just to "get into the market" at a time when anyone could have said it would be bad to do so. That combined with insane levels of immigrants flooding in, who all have enough money to buy houses because they have six incomes thanks to ten people living in a 4 bedroom house.

Government needs to stop the flood of immigrants and really crack down on foreign ownership of multiple properties with insane tax levels plus close all the loopholes. Limit the amount of international students that can get visas annually, because that's how a lot of them are getting in.
Canada won't crack down on illegals/foreigners coming into the country because they're the ones bringing in fresh $$/ideas. The regular Canadians are and have been stagnant in their own financial wealth/growth as well as their desire to amass wealth. They're just comfortable living with what they have which leads to a stall in the economy. Unlike the U.S. who is just getting the low end of the immigrants such as unskilled laborers or refugees fleeing torn or impoverished countries, Canada is getting immigrants who are well educated and already coming into the country with wealth established (less than before but still there). If Canada stopped immigration on the level you want, your entire economy would flatline as there's no new money being brought in and just circulated around the same people.
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post 1683022733 05-19-2023, 04:29 PM
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Americas housing interest is also thru the roof and smart ones are cashing in on it.

Lol at Americux
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post 1683023593 05-19-2023, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted By roosky11⏩
Canada won't crack down on illegals/foreigners coming into the country because they're the ones bringing in fresh $$/ideas. The regular Canadians are and have been stagnant in their own financial wealth/growth as well as their desire to amass wealth. They're just comfortable living with what they have which leads to a stall in the economy. Unlike the U.S. who is just getting the low end of the immigrants such as unskilled laborers or refugees fleeing torn or impoverished countries, Canada is getting immigrants who are well educated and already coming into the country with wealth established (less than before but still there). If Canada stopped immigration on the level you want, your entire economy would flatline as there's no new money being brought in and just circulated around the same people.
Indian entrepreneurs are the people starting companies doing a lot of the home construction as well, at least in Alberta
post 1683023673 05-19-2023, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted By HartHrob⏩
Americas housing interest is also thru the roof and smart ones are cashing in on it.

Lol at Americux
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post 1683023933 05-19-2023, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted By roosky11⏩
Canada won't crack down on illegals/foreigners coming into the country because they're the ones bringing in fresh $$/ideas. The regular Canadians are and have been stagnant in their own financial wealth/growth as well as their desire to amass wealth. They're just comfortable living with what they have which leads to a stall in the economy. Unlike the U.S. who is just getting the low end of the immigrants such as unskilled laborers or refugees fleeing torn or impoverished countries, Canada is getting immigrants who are well educated and already coming into the country with wealth established (less than before but still there). If Canada stopped immigration on the level you want, your entire economy would flatline as there's no new money being brought in and just circulated around the same people.
White Canadians are next to useless.
post 1683024743 05-19-2023, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted By roosky11⏩
Canada won't crack down on illegals/foreigners coming into the country because they're the ones bringing in fresh $$/ideas. The regular Canadians are and have been stagnant in their own financial wealth/growth as well as their desire to amass wealth. They're just comfortable living with what they have which leads to a stall in the economy. Unlike the U.S. who is just getting the low end of the immigrants such as unskilled laborers or refugees fleeing torn or impoverished countries, Canada is getting immigrants who are well educated and already coming into the country with wealth established (less than before but still there). If Canada stopped immigration on the level you want, your entire economy would flatline as there's no new money being brought in and just circulated around the same people.
It's not about bringing in money into the country anyway. You can also make money from exports and foreign investment. No need for the ****** to actually come here.
post 1683025193 05-19-2023, 05:16 PM
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I find it crazy that they do 5 year terms for an asset that few if anyone can afford to pay off in 5 years.

So the norm is going to be taking 20-30 years to buy the asset. And you have to renegotiate rates for it 4 to 6 times before you can pay it off.


I guess housing is over-inflated in price so the trade-off is lower rates. But the uncertainty would annoy me.
post 1683026903 05-19-2023, 05:46 PM
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post 1683028813 05-19-2023, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted By guest89⏩
I find it crazy that they do 5 year terms for an asset that few if anyone can afford to pay off in 5 years.

So the norm is going to be taking 20-30 years to buy the asset. And you have to renegotiate rates for it 4 to 6 times before you can pay it off.


I guess housing is over-inflated in price so the trade-off is lower rates. But the uncertainty would annoy me.
Who actually stays in one house for 20-30 years?
post 1683033053 05-19-2023, 08:02 PM
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post 1683033793 05-19-2023, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted By kcadrenalin⏩
I get why adjustable rates would jump dramatically, but why would you need to renew a fixed rate? What am I missing?
we don't have 30yr rates... we only can lock in for 5year terms.

I currently locked in at 1.86% but in a year i'm forced to renew which will be 6 or 7%


Well i'm way late to the reply here... everyone covered it already my bad.


Trudeau MUST get booted, we are seeing chaos, the homeless are growing at rapid rates despite 7people in BC dying daily of overdose.
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post 1683034883 05-19-2023, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Who actually stays in one house for 20-30 years?
Imagine staying in a house for 5-7 years and buying a new house, while some rentard pays the mortgage on your old house and half your new house.
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