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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
06-09-2023, 01:00 AM
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#3601
Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Imagine you went up to $999 and it goes another 50%. Waow! Literally cannot lose money.Let’s say you bought $1000 of some stock.
It dropped 50%
You now have $500
Experts say you need a 100% rise to get back to $1000
Next month stock goes up 50%
You now have $750
You do NOT need another 50% rise as that would actually be $375 which would take you to OVER your original 1k rather than exactly to your original 1k.
?
Please explain racist math to me.
It dropped 50%
You now have $500
Experts say you need a 100% rise to get back to $1000
Next month stock goes up 50%
You now have $750
You do NOT need another 50% rise as that would actually be $375 which would take you to OVER your original 1k rather than exactly to your original 1k.
?
Please explain racist math to me.
06-09-2023, 04:16 AM
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#3602
Originally Posted By Schnitzl⏩
But you’re making my point, when you typed the word “another” , every day is a new price, the stock does not have to rise 100%, even if it rises 1% one day, it no longer has to rise 99% more.Imagine you went up to $999 and it goes another 50%. Waow! Literally cannot lose money.
?
06-09-2023, 06:37 AM
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#3603
- Heaney
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
https://www.amazon.com/Basic-Maths-D.../dp/1119974526Let’s say you bought $1000 of some stock.
It dropped 50%
You now have $500
Experts say you need a 100% rise to get back to $1000
Next month stock goes up 50%
You now have $750
You do NOT need another 50% rise as that would actually be $375 which would take you to OVER your original 1k rather than exactly to your original 1k.
?
Please explain racist math to me.
It dropped 50%
You now have $500
Experts say you need a 100% rise to get back to $1000
Next month stock goes up 50%
You now have $750
You do NOT need another 50% rise as that would actually be $375 which would take you to OVER your original 1k rather than exactly to your original 1k.
?
Please explain racist math to me.
06-09-2023, 06:46 AM
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#3604
Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Can you point out specifically where I am wrong in my post?You are looking at an 100% increase from the bottom price, you’re not taking into account that every day as we work towards that 100% increase the price is different and no longer requires the same percentage rise as from the bottom.
Let’s say in my example, you have $1000 investment which falls 50% to $500 and then you’re all depressed thinking it has to rise 100% now to get your money back, you may even be thinking that the price has to rise by 50% two days in a row or 10% 10 months in a row, or 1%, 100 days in a row etc. but that’s not true because if the next day the stock rises 50%, all I’m saying is that it does not have to rise 50% the next day again since now the price is higher and another 50% rise would take you to way over your original 1k.
06-09-2023, 07:07 AM
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#3605
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
So.....it DOES have to increase by 100% from the bottom to get your money back..... Nobody said it has to be 100% all at once, the stock price has to double (which is an increase of 100%) I'm sorry that you can't grasp compounding percentages.Can you point out specifically where I am wrong in my post?
You are looking at an 100% increase from the bottom price, you’re not taking into account that every day as we work towards that 100% increase the price is different and no longer requires the same percentage rise as from the bottom.
Let’s say in my example, you have $1000 investment which falls 50% to $500 and then you’re all depressed thinking it has to rise 100% now to get your money back, you may even be thinking that the price has to rise by 50% two days in a row or 10% 10 months in a row, or 1%, 100 days in a row etc. but that’s not true because if the next day the stock rises 50%, all I’m saying is that it does not have to rise 50% the next day again since now the price is higher and another 50% rise would take you to way over your original 1k.
You are looking at an 100% increase from the bottom price, you’re not taking into account that every day as we work towards that 100% increase the price is different and no longer requires the same percentage rise as from the bottom.
Let’s say in my example, you have $1000 investment which falls 50% to $500 and then you’re all depressed thinking it has to rise 100% now to get your money back, you may even be thinking that the price has to rise by 50% two days in a row or 10% 10 months in a row, or 1%, 100 days in a row etc. but that’s not true because if the next day the stock rises 50%, all I’m saying is that it does not have to rise 50% the next day again since now the price is higher and another 50% rise would take you to way over your original 1k.
Literally zero people think that when someone says "it needs to go up by 100%" that means that it needs 2 50% days in a row lmao
06-09-2023, 07:29 AM
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#3606
06-09-2023, 07:53 AM
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#3607
06-09-2023, 10:24 AM
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#3608
06-09-2023, 03:42 PM
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#3609
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
The way this closed on the weekly, next week will be crash mode. I’m going all in on 2025 calls once it’s in the $108-114 range. Ultimate bottom rests at $104, imo.My AMZN calls are up several bags and I have another play that should work out the same way.
TGT is currently down 50% from its ATHs two years ago and I see a demand zone coming up in the $110s. We are currently at $130 so hopefully over the next couple of weeks, my buy in happens. I plan on buying several far OTM 2025 calls and going along for the ride up.
TGT is currently down 50% from its ATHs two years ago and I see a demand zone coming up in the $110s. We are currently at $130 so hopefully over the next couple of weeks, my buy in happens. I plan on buying several far OTM 2025 calls and going along for the ride up.
06-10-2023, 01:51 PM
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#3610
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Why you think it’ll crash?The way this closed on the weekly, next week will be crash mode. I’m going all in on 2025 calls once it’s in the $108-114 range. Ultimate bottom rests at $104, imo.
Also does target lease pharmacy space to CVS? I’ve wondered how much they pay for it.
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06-10-2023, 03:28 PM
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#3611
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
There is a big demand zone $110-115, and it closed super weak on Friday. The chart is showing new lows are coming in.Why you think it’ll crash?
Also does target lease pharmacy space to CVS? I’ve wondered how much they pay for it.
Also does target lease pharmacy space to CVS? I’ve wondered how much they pay for it.
06-11-2023, 10:27 PM
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#3612
06-12-2023, 08:38 AM
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#3613
06-12-2023, 09:25 AM
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#3614
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Oil markets no longer make sense.Oil near one year low yet gas is almost $5 a gallon here on the west coast again, must be refinery problems?
Also no soficels on watch?
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06-12-2023, 12:28 PM
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#3615
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Is this a bonafide bull market now? Many tickers don't appear to be moving on fundamentals. Looking at growth stocks like Upstart.
06-12-2023, 12:40 PM
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#3616
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
Depends how long jobs can hold out. Strong employment picture will hold everything up for awhile. But high interest environment isn’t an attractive environment for payroll growth.Is this a bonafide bull market now? Many tickers don't appear to be moving on fundamentals. Looking at growth stocks like Upstart.
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06-12-2023, 12:42 PM
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#3617
- twovalvekid
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
You must be new here...Many tickers don't appear to be moving on fundamentals. Looking at growth stocks like Upstart.
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06-12-2023, 12:44 PM
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#3618
- usersignup2
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
what exactly does Upstart do?Is this a bonafide bull market now? Many tickers don't appear to be moving on fundamentals. Looking at growth stocks like Upstart.
06-12-2023, 12:54 PM
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#3619
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
what exactly does Upstart do?
06-12-2023, 01:05 PM
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#3620
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
well lets see....Is this a bonafide bull market now? Many tickers don't appear to be moving on fundamentals. Looking at growth stocks like Upstart.
2020-2021
fed interest rate 0%
$4 Trillion government transfers
$80B per month of quantitative easing
student loan forgiveness
= biggest bull market of all time March 2020 to 2021 Nov.
now
fed interest rate 5%
no handing of checks from government
$80B per month of quantitative tightening
student loan grace period ends Sept
= market driven by 7 stocks this year and 400 points from ATH. all thanks to magic power of AI.
add 2 and 2 together what do you think is coming in the fall????
06-12-2023, 01:12 PM
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#3621
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Couldn't have said it better. Not only that but wasn't the QT made redundant since the recent banking bailouts? Everyone was saying previously that a recession was coming but now to the average person it probably appears like misdirection, although I don't believe that. I'm still expecting a drop in fall therefore haven't been adding to any positions. Just doing my monthly DCA into indexes.now
fed interest rate 5%
no handing of checks from government
$80B per month of quantitative tightening
student loan grace period ends Sept
= market driven by 7 stocks this year and 400 points from ATH. all thanks to magic power of AI.
add 2 and 2 together what do you think is coming in the fall????
fed interest rate 5%
no handing of checks from government
$80B per month of quantitative tightening
student loan grace period ends Sept
= market driven by 7 stocks this year and 400 points from ATH. all thanks to magic power of AI.
add 2 and 2 together what do you think is coming in the fall????
I do understand some tickers like PLTR and SOFI rising considerably due to PLTR finally turning a profit and the student loan moratorium ending. However for growth stocks like UPST, based on recent earnings there didn't seem to be any reason for such a massive upside (it's nearly tripled since last earnings) beyond short interest. Interest rate hikes are what killed that stock, and with the further interest rate hikes potentially on the horizon, the upside doesn't make sense.
It's more of a curiosity for me than anything, just amused at the movement on that stock. Same thing with AFRM.
06-12-2023, 01:25 PM
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#3622
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
PLTR / SOFI / UPST / AFRM is all a play on AI.Couldn't have said it better. Not only that but wasn't the QT made redundant since the recent banking bailouts? Everyone was saying previously that a recession was coming but now to the average person it probably appears like misdirection, although I don't believe that. I'm still expecting a drop in fall therefore haven't been adding to any positions. Just doing my monthly DCA into indexes.
I do understand some tickers like PLTR and SOFI rising considerably due to PLTR finally turning a profit and the student loan moratorium ending. However for growth stocks like UPST, based on recent earnings there didn't seem to be any reason for such a massive upside (it's nearly tripled since last earnings) beyond short interest. Interest rate hikes are what killed that stock, and with the further interest rate hikes potentially on the horizon, the upside doesn't make sense.
It's more of a curiosity for me than anything, just amused at the movement on that stock. Same thing with AFRM.
I do understand some tickers like PLTR and SOFI rising considerably due to PLTR finally turning a profit and the student loan moratorium ending. However for growth stocks like UPST, based on recent earnings there didn't seem to be any reason for such a massive upside (it's nearly tripled since last earnings) beyond short interest. Interest rate hikes are what killed that stock, and with the further interest rate hikes potentially on the horizon, the upside doesn't make sense.
It's more of a curiosity for me than anything, just amused at the movement on that stock. Same thing with AFRM.
Nothing more.
These days if you can just talk about AI in your conference call / earnings you will get bid up.
Market can stay irrational for long time.
If there is no pull back this year back to reality SP to 4000.
Than there is nothing but up next year cause in election year they will keep promising (both sides) stimulus to the moon.
SP 500 should hit 4400 this week.
06-12-2023, 01:50 PM
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#3623
- Heaney
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Are those interest rate numbers before or after the time factor though?well lets see....
2020-2021
fed interest rate 0%
$4 Trillion government transfers
$80B per month of quantitative easing
student loan forgiveness
= biggest bull market of all time March 2020 to 2021 Nov.
now
fed interest rate 5%
no handing of checks from government
$80B per month of quantitative tightening
student loan grace period ends Sept
= market driven by 7 stocks this year and 400 points from ATH. all thanks to magic power of AI.
add 2 and 2 together what do you think is coming in the fall????
2020-2021
fed interest rate 0%
$4 Trillion government transfers
$80B per month of quantitative easing
student loan forgiveness
= biggest bull market of all time March 2020 to 2021 Nov.
now
fed interest rate 5%
no handing of checks from government
$80B per month of quantitative tightening
student loan grace period ends Sept
= market driven by 7 stocks this year and 400 points from ATH. all thanks to magic power of AI.
add 2 and 2 together what do you think is coming in the fall????
06-12-2023, 01:50 PM
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#3624
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Imo sofi isn’t an AI play. It’s going up initially because student loans are back on the menu and shorts gotta cover.PLTR / SOFI / UPST / AFRM is all a play on AI.
Nothing more.
These days if you can just talk about AI in your conference call / earnings you will get bid up.
Market can stay irrational for long time.
If there is no pull back this year back to reality SP to 4000.
Than there is nothing but up next year cause in election year they will keep promising (both sides) stimulus to the moon.
SP 500 should hit 4400 this week.
Nothing more.
These days if you can just talk about AI in your conference call / earnings you will get bid up.
Market can stay irrational for long time.
If there is no pull back this year back to reality SP to 4000.
Than there is nothing but up next year cause in election year they will keep promising (both sides) stimulus to the moon.
SP 500 should hit 4400 this week.
I’m still liking bonds. I will even more if they hike 1-2 more times.
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06-12-2023, 02:00 PM
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#3625
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Everything is front ran.Are those interest rate numbers before or after the time factor though?
Market bounced March 20, 2020 when Fed announced interest rates at 0 for years to come and destroyed bond market via infinite QT squeeze forcing everyone into equities.
You had no choice but to be in stock market.
Treasuries were paying zero.
Now market is front running that hikes is over after one more on Wed.
The trick play this year is that all the bid came from 7 companies thanks to AI breakthrough.
If you remove AI stocks the SP 500 would be at 3800 right now.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Sorry but SOFI is 98 percent AI play.Imo sofi isn’t an AI play. It’s going up initially because student loans are back on the menu and shorts gotta cover.
I’m still liking bonds. I will even more if they hike 1-2 more times.
I’m still liking bonds. I will even more if they hike 1-2 more times.
There is AI algo running on most of these names.
06-12-2023, 02:06 PM
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#3626
- Crazy_Desi
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Yes I saw the power of AI after NVDA earnings. Thought I'd seen it all, but that.. was eye opening.These days if you can just talk about AI in your conference call / earnings you will get bid up.
SP 500 should hit 4400 this week.
SP 500 should hit 4400 this week.
What does SOFI/AFRM have to do with AI? Did you mean to say algo driven? Or that the algos are now driven by AI?
06-12-2023, 02:30 PM
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#3627
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Nah. Also Payo poised to pop before long. Their management has confirmed they are starting to buy back their $80m— at current prices they’d buy back 4-5%. Institutional ownership is massive. When I looked a month or 2 ago it was over 80%. Their rates for international transfers are ticking up slightly but still far lower than competition. That alone combined with interest on deposits will make a big difference for profitability. They’ve blown all SPAC projections out of the water and they are consistently revising upward on guidance. I think they’ll show more B2B focus in the next couple quarters including their investor day in September. Overall growth has been pretty incredible to see.Everything is front ran.
Market bounced March 20, 2020 when Fed announced interest rates at 0 for years to come and destroyed bond market via infinite QT squeeze forcing everyone into equities.
You had no choice but to be in stock market.
Treasuries were paying zero.
Now market is front running that hikes is over after one more on Wed.
The trick play this year is that all the bid came from 7 companies thanks to AI breakthrough.
If you remove AI stocks the SP 500 would be at 3800 right now.
Sorry but SOFI is 98 percent AI play.
There is AI algo running on most of these names.
Market bounced March 20, 2020 when Fed announced interest rates at 0 for years to come and destroyed bond market via infinite QT squeeze forcing everyone into equities.
You had no choice but to be in stock market.
Treasuries were paying zero.
Now market is front running that hikes is over after one more on Wed.
The trick play this year is that all the bid came from 7 companies thanks to AI breakthrough.
If you remove AI stocks the SP 500 would be at 3800 right now.
Sorry but SOFI is 98 percent AI play.
There is AI algo running on most of these names.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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06-12-2023, 02:36 PM
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#3628
06-12-2023, 02:48 PM
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#3629
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
I'm thinking about buying $TGT too. Which calls are you doing?AMZN is heading to $150 as planned. Gonna be taking some of those profits and pouring them into TGT calls. TGT has another 10% decline to go before I buy in. This game is getting easy.
06-12-2023, 03:25 PM
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#3630
I endorse calls on TGT and Venom's price targets.
Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Sounds like a post I would make <3.calls once it’s in the $108-114 range. Ultimate bottom rests at $104, imo.
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