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Forum » Zillow is fuarking HILARIOUS right now....
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Thread: Zillow is fuarking HILARIOUS right now....

post 1684507833 06-12-2023, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted By DDCT1135⏩
I live in Illinois


1 mil house here is easily 20K property taxes. Utilities is another 1000 a month so you're talking what 2800 a month?
Man fukk that, that’s brutal

Nothing I own is over $250/month in property taxes and even blasting the AC during Phoenix summer I don’t go over $300/month for utilities
post 1684507973 06-12-2023, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted By blissful88⏩
2 weeks ago my neighbor sold his home for $200K more than he paid for it

Misc said it was going to crash by 6 months ago



Idk who to beleaf anymore
Fortune favors the bold, buy now, maybe you can make $100k in six months. I'm not even being sarcastic.

I really underestimated what people were willing to pay for ghetto housing in many scenarios, maybe the ride's not over yet.
post 1684508183 06-12-2023, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Correct but I disagree that just because people bought at the wrong time that they’ll just start dumping their houses and taking a loss like you mentioned earlier

Stressful for sure but most people will just wait it out
If someone doesn't get the economy back on track, the people who overpaid won't have to dump their house. They will be removed from their house. You have to look at the trends. I don't remember the exact timeline, but the housing market crashes every 15-20 years or so. When that happens it causes a ripple effect through employment, the economy, and the markets which in turn makes it harder for those people to keep their houses. All it takes is unemployment and inflation to rise to a certain level. This is a perfect storm for the 2008 crash to repeat itself, albeit for different reasons.

By any chance are you in the real estate business?

LMFAO at people who think the housing market won't crash. Just like the financial markets the housing market will always crash and rebound on a cycle. The sooner it crashes, the sooner it can rebound and the better it is for everyone. The more inflated the bubble gets, the longer it will take to rebound. And the market is overdue to crash as we speak.
post 1684508373 06-12-2023, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted By badger6⏩
If someone doesn't get the economy back on track, the people who overpaid won't have to dump their house. They will be removed from their house. You have to look at the trends. I don't remember the exact timeline, but the housing market crashes every 15-20 years or so. When that happens it causes a ripple effect through employment, the economy and the markets which in turn makes it harder for those people to keep their houses. All it takes is unemployment and inflation to rise to a certain level. This is a perfect storm for the 2008 crash to repeat itself, albeit for different reasons.

By any chance are you in the real estate business?

LMFAO at people who think the housing market won't crash. Just like the financial markets the housing market will always crash and rebound on a cycle. The sooner it crashes, the sooner it can rebound and the better it is for everyone. The more inflated the bubble gets, the longer it will take to rebound. And the market is overdue to crash as we speak.
Yeah I’m in the business I think I stated that earlier. Although what I do is investor based and investors buy in up and down markets, they just adjust their buy price. Investors love a housing crash

You’re making broad statements without really providing much substance to back them up

If foreclosures start to rise again to a decent level I’d maybe be worried about an incoming crash. But they are still very low
post 1684509123 06-12-2023, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted By badger6⏩
If someone doesn't get the economy back on track, the people who overpaid won't have to dump their house. They will be removed from their house. You have to look at the trends. I don't remember the exact timeline, but the housing market crashes every 15-20 years or so. When that happens it causes a ripple effect through employment, the economy, and the markets which in turn makes it harder for those people to keep their houses. All it takes is unemployment and inflation to rise to a certain level. This is a perfect storm for the 2008 crash to repeat itself, albeit for different reasons.

By any chance are you in the real estate business?

LMFAO at people who think the housing market won't crash. Just like the financial markets the housing market will always crash and rebound on a cycle. The sooner it crashes, the sooner it can rebound and the better it is for everyone. The more inflated the bubble gets, the longer it will take to rebound. And the market is overdue to crash as we speak.
Yeah bro the crash is bound to happen… Possibly in 2024, maybe in 2025, or 2026, or it may be 2027, or 2028, or 2029, or 2030, or 2031… something will happen eventually… Maybe in 2031 prices will drop 5-10%
post 1684509273 06-12-2023, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Yeah I’m in the business I think I stated that earlier. Although what I do is investor based and investors buy in up and down markets, they just adjust their buy price. Investors love a housing crash

You’re making broad statements without really providing much substance to back them up

If foreclosures start to rise again to a decent level I’d maybe be worried about an incoming crash. But they are still very low
There is absolutely nothing I can provide to back it up. You can't predict an exact timeline on market crashes. I'm not saying it's going to happen in the next 6 months. But if I had to guess the housing bubble will pop by 2025.

I can't believe that there are people itt that are saying that the market prices will continue to rise indefinitely. The prices are unsustainable. I'm sure that you can admit that the housing market will always peak and crash on a cycle. Like I said, the sooner it happens the better it will be for everyone and the economy.
post 1684509383 06-12-2023, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted By Zelensky⏩
Yeah bro the crash is bound to happen… Possibly in 2024, maybe in 2025, or 2026, or it may be 2027, or 2028, or 2029, or 2030, or 2031… something will happen eventually… Maybe in 2031 prices will drop 5-10%
I remember in like 2002ish my parents had their house appraised and my dad was ROFLMAOing at the number they gave him.... He was like, "If you can find someone willing to pay that, then LMAO!"

It was still 6 more years of absurdity before the chit collapsed.
post 1684509433 06-12-2023, 08:30 PM
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foreign money will always find its dirty way into real estate
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post 1684509593 06-12-2023, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted By badger6⏩
There is absolutely nothing I can provide to back it up. You can't predict an exact timeline on market crashes. I'm not saying it's going to happen in the next 6 months. But if I had to guess the housing bubble will pop by 2025.

I can't believe that there are people itt that are saying that the market prices will continue to rise indefinitely. The prices are unsustainable. I'm sure that you can admit that the housing market will always peak and crash on a cycle. Like I said, the sooner it happens the better it will be for everyone and the economy.
The housing market does always go up over time though. And we did just have a correction in prices of 10-15%

But I just don’t see what indicators we can look at to predict a 50%+ crash. We have low supply, high demand and low foreclosure rate as well as low unemployment

I think these prices are here to stay
post 1684510763 06-12-2023, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
The housing market does always go up over time though. And we did just have a correction in prices of 10-15%

But I just don’t see what indicators we can look at to predict a 50%+ crash. We have low supply, high demand and low foreclosure rate as well as low unemployment

I think these prices are here to stay
Well, you're in the RE business, so any comments made by the internet persona "Big Deeps" will be taken with a grain of salt. It's your job and livelihood to talk up the RE market. I have no skin in the game and will break even or make money regardless of what the market does.

But to say these unsustainable prices are here to stay sounds like some used car salesman chit. And I should know since I was in the car business for 10 years. Anyhow, in my opinion, a crash is inevitable within the next few years. Time will tell
post 1684511743 06-12-2023, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted By badger6⏩
If someone doesn't get the economy back on track, the people who overpaid won't have to dump their house. They will be removed from their house. You have to look at the trends. I don't remember the exact timeline, but the housing market crashes every 15-20 years or so. When that happens it causes a ripple effect through employment, the economy, and the markets which in turn makes it harder for those people to keep their houses. All it takes is unemployment and inflation to rise to a certain level. This is a perfect storm for the 2008 crash to repeat itself, albeit for different reasons.

By any chance are you in the real estate business?

LMFAO at people who think the housing market won't crash. Just like the financial markets the housing market will always crash and rebound on a cycle. The sooner it crashes, the sooner it can rebound and the better it is for everyone. The more inflated the bubble gets, the longer it will take to rebound. And the market is overdue to crash as we speak.
2008 was a perfect storm of sub-prime lending, hedge funding against the lending, because of investors who made out like bandits, then failing banks, which lead to job losses, thus those who were sub-prime lenders couldn't afford the houses because banks were lending money to anyone with a pulse.

During 2017-2021 when interests rates were at an all time low as well as house prices, anyone who's in a house (and who isn't an investor in real estate) is golden. They aren't going to sell their house to sit on a pile of cash to just hemorrhage it away in rent, or a higher interest rate on another house which may not actually be an upgrade with the current prices.

Those who bought after 2022 can clearly afford whatever they are living in now regardless if the house is reduced by 50%. It will ONLY affect them if they lost their income. Again, going back to 2008, banks were failing, thus reducing the amount of money for businesses, thus layoffs, thus sub-prime lenders losing their income. A perfect storm.

Today, just because there may be a correction in house prices doesn't mean there's going to be bank failures and job loses. Whole slew of laws went into affect after 2008 sub-prime lending and betting on those loses fiasco.

Current homeowners will simply soldier on paying whatever their mortgage is now.
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post 1684511923 06-12-2023, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
Just looking at an online calculator the mortgage on a 1 million dollar home with 20% down @ 6.5% interest is about $5k/month. With 2% property tax that takes it to $6666/month and with utilities let's say $7k/month. So yea you're right. That's nuts.

With a 2% interest rate that $5k/month drops to $3k/month..

Seems like the best way to go about it now is to just put as much cash down as possible, but then you risk losing it if the market crashes. Terrible situation..
Or you put down as little as possible and plough the extra cash into any number of things that produces 5%+ returns and doesn’t tie up your cash

I’m paying about $8100/month on what were originally like $1.35m in mortgages + property tax, not including utilities etc
post 1684512023 06-12-2023, 09:18 PM
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Originally Posted By HMFIC_BROWSIN⏩
I remember in like 2002ish my parents had their house appraised and my dad was ROFLMAOing at the number they gave him.... He was like, "If you can find someone willing to pay that, then LMAO!"

It was still 6 more years of absurdity before the chit collapsed.
Same. I remember my dad saying the exact same thing lol
post 1684512253 06-12-2023, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted By cavillac⏩
Man, some of you are delusional. Anyone smart enough to be a homeowner got it refinanced at 2-3% interest. You'd have to really be desperate to sell to move into another house to pay double the interest.
Sure you can LMAO at the prices all day but your landlord is lmao'ing at you harder. Prices are only going to go up, may as well buy now and hope you may be able to re-finance in the future at a lower rate.
What about if I sell my home for 440 owe 220 2.9% rate 2100 mortgage

Or sell take the cash

Buy home 175 get to 150, move to lower tax state so all in all mortgage is around 1000-1200 with 6.5% rate


Pocket rest/pay off car and other small debts
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post 1684512453 06-12-2023, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted By Olympia2018⏩
What about if I sell my home for 440 owe 220 2.9% rate 2100 mortgage

Or sell take the cash

Buy home 175 get to 150, move to lower tax state so all in all mortgage is around 1000-1200 with 6.5% rate


Pocket rest/pay off car and other small debts
Sell home, TRY to find a shack to buy outright from the profit of sale of previous home, and live rent free (only paying taxes, insurance and utilities). Profit from whatever income you get as a wageslave.
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post 1684512963 06-12-2023, 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted By cavillac⏩
Man, some of you are delusional. Anyone smart enough to be a homeowner got it refinanced at 2-3% interest. You'd have to really be desperate to sell to move into another house to pay double the interest.
Sure you can LMAO at the prices all day but your landlord is lmao'ing at you harder. Prices are only going to go up, may as well buy now and hope you may be able to re-finance in the future at a lower rate.
I disagree that prices are going to keep going up. I agree with the sentiment that "why would I move when I have an crazy low interest rate". The issue going forward for everyone that bought in the last 5 years is that they got into crazy bidding wars. They paid WAYYYY over for their home and eventually they will be underwater on them.

And if you aren't underwater on your home, then your stuck there like a prison because you can't leave due to the interest rate that you got. We are no doubt going to see a lot of people unable to afford their homes in the next 5 years
post 1684513243 06-12-2023, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
I disagree that prices are going to keep going up. I agree with the sentiment that "why would I move when I have an crazy low interest rate". The issue going forward for everyone that bought in the last 5 years is that they got into crazy bidding wars. They paid WAYYYY over for their home and eventually they will be underwater on them.

And if you aren't underwater on your home, then your stuck there like a prison because you can't leave due to the interest rate that you got. We are no doubt going to see a lot of people unable to afford their homes in the next 5 years
JUST because you are underwater does not mean you cannot afford your home.Unless you got some crazy AMR, your mortgage payment isn't really going to change. And if it DID go underwater, you actually pay a few dollars less in taxes next year (and a small escrow rebate) thus making your overall monthly payment lower.

All underwater means is that if you want to sell your home for whatever reason, you're selling at a loss. Thus investors lose if you bought a house as an investment.

Crazy thing is, rent is still too damn high. Investors will simply short-term rental (airbnb, vrbo), or rent it out to rentcells at more than what they owe anyway (profit)
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post 1684513353 06-12-2023, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted By Tuksonrider⏩
Sell home, TRY to find a shack to buy outright from the profit of sale of previous home, and live rent free (only paying taxes, insurance and utilities). Profit from whatever income you get as a wageslave.
Then when I’m at 500k In 3 years, what do next…
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post 1684513383 06-12-2023, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted By badger6⏩
Well, you're in the RE business, so any comments made by the internet persona "Big Deeps" will be taken with a grain of salt. It's your job and livelihood to talk up the RE market. I have no skin in the game and will break even or make money regardless of what the market does.

But to say these unsustainable prices are here to stay sounds like some used car salesman chit. And I should know since I was in the car business for 10 years. Anyhow, in my opinion, a crash is inevitable within the next few years. Time will tell
To have a crash, you need a lot of people with mortgages they can't afford who are forced to sell


People who bought last couple years with crazy payments and crazy interest rates are more the exception instead of the rule. The majority of homeowners are locked into very cheap payments with 30 year mortgages at 2-3%. How are you going to have people default on a 1500 payment? When they know the alternative is renting at 3K a month. The house is the first thing people pay, they'll let a car get repoed before a house


You have the perfect environment for a very long period of time of low supply. People are not gonna default on these cheap mortgages they got from 4 years ago. Maybe you'll have a high default rate on people who are first time home owners who bought very expensive mortgages on reasonably low incomes but that's gonna be a very small percentage of people...and supply/demand chart is so fcked, it won't matter


You can't compare the crash of 2007 to now. Home lending became very strict last 15 years. You don't have many people with houses they can't afford and you have a lot of people in great equity position with very low payments due to 2% int for 30 years
post 1684513463 06-12-2023, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted By Olympia2018⏩
Then when I’m at 500k In 3 years, what do next…
send me $250k, and I'll tell you.

not srs.





kinda srs.



Find more sound investments than ask misc. Hell, I'd ask chatGPT how to invest $500k before I ask misc.
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post 1684513643 06-12-2023, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
I disagree that prices are going to keep going up. I agree with the sentiment that "why would I move when I have an crazy low interest rate". The issue going forward for everyone that bought in the last 5 years is that they got into crazy bidding wars. They paid WAYYYY over for their home and eventually they will be underwater on them.

And if you aren't underwater on your home, then your stuck there like a prison because you can't leave due to the interest rate that you got. We are no doubt going to see a lot of people unable to afford their homes in the next 5 years
You guys keep focusing on this underwater thing. Most people don't care about the value of their house. It's not an investment. It's a place for them to live. They're not gonna sell unless they need to, for whatever reason. If the house is worth a lot less than the payoff, they simply won't move but the path to this house crashing in value simply does not exist. You're going to have very low supply of houses for a long time. You have a lot of people in very favorable positions who have no need to sell. The only way for housing market to crash is for there to be a lot more supply than demand. How is that gonna happen when most people have no interest in moving and losing their 2% interest to go up to 7%?
post 1684514203 06-12-2023, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Or you put down as little as possible and plough the extra cash into any number of things that produces 5%+ returns and doesn’t tie up your cash

I’m paying about $8100/month on what were originally like $1.35m in mortgages + property tax, not including utilities etc
The problem is, while a mortgage may be quoted at 7% interest rate, that's not really 7% because of amortization.

For a $1 million home with $200k down and 7% interest rate:

The first year alone you're paying $55,500 in interest and $8,400 in principal. When you look at the yearly payment amount that's $64,000 in payments, which means you're effectively paying 87% of your payments towards interest. To me that's like an 87% interest rate that first year. So while you're gaining interest on a savings account, that's peanuts compared to the interest you're actually paying towards the mortgage.

Hence why I said put as much cash down as possible. You're not getting an actual 7% interest rate on a yearly basis until the end of your payment schedule.

If amortization was not a thing, and you really were paying a 7% interest rate, and that $64,000 in payments was comprised of $4500 in interest and $59,500 in principal, then yes, you're absolutely right that putting down as little cash as possible is the way to go.
post 1684514663 06-12-2023, 10:13 PM
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Don’t worry guise n0stradumbass told me a 60% house price crash was imminent

Yes he said this 3 years ago but still

Any day now
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Don’t worry guise n0stradumbass told me a 60% house price crash was imminent

Yes he said this 3 years ago but still

Any day now
Rentcels been saying this for 30 years


Honestly I'm more confident in the housing market than ever before. 2015-2020 put a lot of people in a very strong position with a ton of equity and very low interest rate. Nobody is defaulting on a 1500 payment when comparable rent now is 3K
post 1684515933 06-12-2023, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Don’t worry guise n0stradumbass told me a 60% house price crash was imminent

Yes he said this 3 years ago but still

Any day now


Probably unrelated
Coincel
Florida crew (lol at coldcels)
post 1684515973 06-12-2023, 10:50 PM
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#116
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Originally Posted By Tuksonrider⏩
JUST because you are underwater does not mean you cannot afford your home.Unless you got some crazy AMR, your mortgage payment isn't really going to change. And if it DID go underwater, you actually pay a few dollars less in taxes next year (and a small escrow rebate) thus making your overall monthly payment lower.

All underwater means is that if you want to sell your home for whatever reason, you're selling at a loss. Thus investors lose if you bought a house as an investment.

Crazy thing is, rent is still too damn high. Investors will simply short-term rental (airbnb, vrbo), or rent it out to rentcells at more than what they owe anyway (profit)
Originally Posted By DDCT1135⏩
You guys keep focusing on this underwater thing. Most people don't care about the value of their house. It's not an investment. It's a place for them to live. They're not gonna sell unless they need to, for whatever reason. If the house is worth a lot less than the payoff, they simply won't move but the path to this house crashing in value simply does not exist. You're going to have very low supply of houses for a long time. You have a lot of people in very favorable positions who have no need to sell. The only way for housing market to crash is for there to be a lot more supply than demand. How is that gonna happen when most people have no interest in moving and losing their 2% interest to go up to 7%?
You both are missing a key part which is that these people paying 80-100k over asking were doing so on starter homes, not always "forever homes".. which is why said it's essentially a prison.

You're locked into that house for far longer than you want, and when you want to sell are doing so at a loss. You don't honestly believe that all these people bought their homes they planned on living in for the next 25+ years do you?

The vast majority of 1st time home buyers are not buying a home they plan on staying in forever
post 1684516143 06-12-2023, 10:57 PM
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#117
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
You both are missing a key part which is that these people paying 80-100k over asking were doing so on starter homes, not always "forever homes".. which is why said it's essentially a prison.

You're locked into that house for far longer than you want, and when you want to sell are doing so at a loss. You don't honestly believe that all these people bought their homes they planned on living in for the next 25+ years do you?

The vast majority of 1st time home buyers are not buying a home they plan on staying in forever
Actually I definitely agree with this statement, it seems to be the historical trend at least.

The only way I see a contraction in prices, however, is a major employment downturn with corresponding high interest rates and simultaneous money supply contraction (which has actually been happening to a degree if you look at M1 and M2 charts). Still, that’s a lot of maybes that have to align IMO.
Coincel
Florida crew (lol at coldcels)
post 1684516153 06-12-2023, 10:58 PM
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#118
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
You both are missing a key part which is that these people paying 80-100k over asking were doing so on starter homes, not always "forever homes".. which is why said it's essentially a prison.

You're locked into that house for far longer than you want, and when you want to sell are doing so at a loss. You don't honestly believe that all these people bought their homes they planned on living in for the next 25+ years do you?

The vast majority of 1st time home buyers are not buying a home they plan on staying in forever
Yes. A lot of people buy homes not as an investment. They buy a home solely to buy actual property to live in, even raise a family. Sure it's nice bonus if you can build equity, and it's better than hemorrhaging your money away on rent.

If you're buying home as an investment property as your FIRST property, you're probably doing it wrong.

Parents been in home for over 30 years. Lovely place.

As for "prison"? Simply rent it out for more than what you're paying in mortgage...profit.
I'm not blessed with riches, but I am rich with blessings.
Thank you, LORD, my God.
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post 1684516383 06-12-2023, 11:06 PM
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#119
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ATH prices and 7% mortgages is an untenable situation, to say the least.

One of the two will give, and every investor is betting it's mortgage rates.
FA Crew
Always Pick 1 Crew

"Experience is something you get right after you need it."
post 1684517713 06-12-2023, 11:36 PM
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#120
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Originally Posted By Tuksonrider⏩
Yes. A lot of people buy homes not as an investment. They buy a home solely to buy actual property to live in, even raise a family. Sure it's nice bonus if you can build equity, and it's better than hemorrhaging your money away on rent.

If you're buying home as an investment property as your FIRST property, you're probably doing it wrong.

Parents been in home for over 30 years. Lovely place.

As for "prison"? Simply rent it out for more than what you're paying in mortgage...profit.
It only takes one bad tenant to fuk up your house and investment. "Just rent it out bro!" Isn't a simple solution as it sounds
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