There is auto bid basket algorithm that funds are using that is working in tandem.

We saw this with meme stocks.



Now we are getting replay because the hottest thing in market atm is anything to due with AI.

From May 9th if you look at pltr / afrm/ upst/ ai / sofi etc the bids are same.



As for NVDA that was the most cocky management conference call of all time.

They threw guide numbers that if the can't match toward end of year will be wild considering they caused mania in SP/NQ.

I have a weird feeling this is going to be a rug pull for the ages also. Look at spy chart from mid March onwards. Almost every single day it's up. Tickers like Carvana and Sofi going 100-200%. Everyone is turning bullish, P/Es hitting 200s. From the impatient to the patient. Maybe I'm just trying to justify sitting on the sidelines with cash but I've been patient since November that we're going to see 330.

If fed temporarily stops rate hikes (which is why the market is bullish now I'm assuming), what's the downside catalyst after that? Resumption of rate hikes in fall?

I agree with you though, would rather miss the small chance of potential upside to SPY 500 rather than buy in now and risk getting rugpulled down to 330.

But if instead the market goes up again, what are you going to do? Buy back in at the top? Or just wait forever until that rug pull?

Curious as to why anyone would want anything to do with target,

You can look at things like yield curve, QT, rate hikes and when major past drops happened right after rate lowering has started amongst other indicators but I'm just seeing this as irrationality in the markets. Just don't see anything pointing to us being able to sustain this bull run. Of course markets don't make sense so I might be completely off with my reasoning and we see 500+, then keep going upwards from there but at some point fundamentals do catch up when the AI craze finishes. It just feels awfully like algos are trying to pull in as much retail $$$ as they can before taking everything. Fear & greed index hitting 80 soon.

I still DCA monthly into indexes. I'm just saying I'm not adding to any of my individual positions right now. The political climate in the next few years along with international issues doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling for where the market is headed.Yea, exactly this. Then again, retail $$$ is supposedly around 20-30% of total money in the market so in terms of actual dollars I'm clueless as to how much institutions seek to gain by pulling in more retail money.

I was thinking this today. Time to cover my long positions again. I haven’t wrote a CC in a long while. I’m not carrying many CSP anymore either which is nice.

[QUOTE=Schnitzl post_id=1684502193]I have a weird feeling this is going to be a rug pull for the ages also. Look at spy chart from mid March onwards. Almost every single day it's up. Tickers like Carvana and Sofi going 100-200%. Everyone is turning bullish, P/Es hitting 200s. From the impatient to the patient. Maybe I'm just trying to justify sitting on the sidelines with cash but I've been patient since November that we're going to see 330.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/TS01lhs.pnmg][/QUOTE]
I am not sure if there is massive rug pull coming.

You can count on your fingers how many times markets crash.

It can take long time to get proper correction.

Since I have been trading only been part of 2018 flash crash / 2020 and that was it. Wasn't even in market for 08 crash (too young) and only read about other corrections dot com etc.

Rather some type of sell off is long overdue but nobody wants to trim the top 7 stocks that eating the index weight and keeping everything up.

Memo right now is crushing shorts (you can see that at volatility completely gone out of market atm) forcing them to cover and causing pump, the cover of AI has caused some new imaginative price targets on tech stocks, funds that were sitting on sidelines have no choice but to chase now. All the stars basically aligned.


ATM SP 500 is supported down to 4000. Upside is 4400-4500. Trading range is 4200-4400 for now.

Any dips in those levels on the first go there will be buyers waiting.


It is very perplexing how everyone collectively said you know lets just buy the biggest market cap stocks and never sell no matter what rates fed does.

493 other companies in sp 500 are barely up single digits YTD.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/ZSKTj42.png[/img]

They build them up to watch em fall.

I mean some won’t fall. They are just too insane. But NVDA I don’t think can carry through.

Looking at the charts, I think we need to see the $DJI close above 34720 to break out to new highs.

Hard to imagine many people wanting to FOMO into NVDA at $400. Unless they do a stock split it seems unrealistic.

Thank God I'm not one of those guys who's sitting in cash waiting for the big dip. Buying in when you can and building up the time in the market is the better long term strategy.

Hard to believe the S&P is less than 10% away from ATH.

Yeah I’m sure creating a trillion dollar industry based around cheating regulators for edges, cheating the market, manipulating price, using a.i. to run nonsensical programs (to humans) that trade patterns in a way to achieve a desired market effect, etc etc.. is exactly what was envisioned when we decided to allow people to invest in companies.

Seriously take the smartest people in the world and congrats they figured out how to own everything and get all the money. Instead of fixing the world or accomplishing real goals that bring value into the world instead of taking it for themselves. Great fukking system.

That being said gme to the moon still boyos

Not a bad thing to sidestep losses if you can. Multiple times we've run up say 20%, and i've gone "maybe i should generate some cash here," then we drop back a considerable amount.Based on?

Also a lot of people in the stock market fail to realise cash is also a position.

Bingo.

Plus, just personally i try to only keep 3-5 positions at a time. But have many more i keep an "eye" on for "sale" days. And may bite on them if they dip for dumb reasons.

Like Fed nonsense...

Reported for anti semetism.

It sounds like you got rekd and are mad?

Lol I’ve never put more than 100k in the open market and I have 100 x that.

But yes I am mad. Mostly at how ridiculous the whole thing is.

I'm with you 100% but you either play the game or you get played, at least with the current state of affairs.

market is only manipulated when big boys start hurting

nobody is hurting now

when regional banks were going under March left and right.

what did big whales do.

cry to media that fed needs to rate cut today/tmmrw

while they were buying dip.

did Bezos / Gates / Elon / Zuck lifestyle change?

let alone think about all the big boy hedge funds Ken Griffin etc.



stock market market cap is around $40 Trillion

passive (aka buy and hold and never sell) is starting to grow its approaching $10 Trillion.

which means future of people flipping shares back and forth will keep going to death due to algos and high frequency traders. they can front run everything before you can even blink.


price discovery is becoming impossible.

First of all, you’re a cook in a fast place joint, you don’t have any money, lol, but can you specify what exactly is ridiculous?

Like what specifically is ridiculous about the price of some well-known stock or something?

He owns a starred restaurant lmfao. Aren’t you the one who couldn’t figure out the math behind a 50% loss requiring a 100% gain to get back to even?

I come from generational wealth

Specifically banking industry

What’s specifically ridiculous is the market was started as a way to invest in companies and earn some money when they do well. Help entrepreneurs, help struggling business that need an equal footing in market etc.. actual value is created and enabled.

Fast forward 100 years and all they are doing is fighting each other over more pie, but there’s more people fighting for pie than actually baking the damn things. They are no longer creating opportunity and value, they aren’t helping anything.

The market is a big video game and using whatever creative manipulation, rule bending, front running, naked shorting, installing puppet board members, etc… is how it’s played. It’s too top heavy, there’s no actual payoff for value of what’s being produced by the people who actual contribute with their lives. Instead you get watered down scraps of rapidly inflating currency while trillions circulate around doing nothing but changing pockets with rich people.


Fukking ridiculous


And don’t even get me started on regulators being on Wall Street payroll and turning blind eye or slapping fines for “illegal cost of doing business license”.

I’m going to echo what carbon said earlier and really drive it home for people, I really think it’s important and have been regularly bringing it up with friends and family lately.

These last few months bull run is the same as when we had zero percent fukking rates in a market filled with fear of a crash instead of drunk off printer money.

There’s no actual reflection of actual value in the numbers. Our economy and our companies and our production are not in a place reflected by the numbers algo manipulated to make sure citadel or susq or any of the big guys don’t end up fuked and margin called from the absolutely disasterous losses that could be incurred by their reckless gambling in the options market (well it’s not gambling if you own the board of the companies you want to manipulate, and then own some regulators, and call in your pocket congressman, and ultimately won’t even actually be allowed to fail cuz systemic risk)

let me guess, some people in here havent bought since the start of the bull run and are STILL waiting on the sideline hoping for the big dip that will never come?

LOL

I'm gonna be real with you all.... the stock market/indexes are far from over-valued. I could see the DJIA at 65,000 by 2030.

It is my belief that you cannot expect earnings from this past year to continue growing at current clip with interest rates being hikes as dramatically as they have the last 6-12 months.

Inflation is FINALLY dropping 4% vs 2% that fed is trying to reach.

Cost to borrow/service debt is about to explode for old companies that always relied on debt funding. Think companies with underfunded pensions too.

People are running out of money and kicking student loans back on will probably be causing pain right around the time there is a crescendo of commercial loans crumpling, major cities unable to balance their loans(major loss of tax income due to whf and businesses catering to business employees suffering from lack of feet in the door), and higher job losses.

Job growth/cuts typically snowball and we’ve hit the 1st phase of tech dropping over. Now we will likely start seeing it affect companies that serve these employees and there will likely be a 2ndary loss of jobs and then a tertiary loss behind that. There is also automation to factor in which likely will suppress new hire growth that would otherwise be there. Lots of industries are managing to increase productivity per person by having automated processes handle improve efficiency.

I don't think Core CPI has moderated in quite some time, pretty sure the drop in headline inflation is all about energy