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Zillow is fuarking HILARIOUS right now....
06-13-2023, 05:34 PM
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#151
- SipNPiz
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Houses in my area list on a Friday and are sold by Monday, prices are only 10% less than 2021 peak but rates are 2.5x higher. There simply isn’t enough supply.
STEM Wagie Brah
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06-13-2023, 05:38 PM
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#152
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Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
Strong thisHome prices are only half the issue right now
I don’t hear many people talk about general contractor/specialist labor costs
If you’ve gotten quotes recently you’d know it’s absolutely insane, we need to start running campaigns for women to get into trades like we did for getting women to code
BRB 40k for a new roof, 50k to replace a deck, 100k for foundation repair, 40k to repipe the house, 20k for new electrical panel, 20k to replace AC unit. The quotes for stuff like this will make your jaw fall to the floor
Most of these homes on the market are fixer uppers that need work like this based on when I looked at some homes around recently
You aren’t going to be happy when you spend 800k on a 400k house that needs 200k in work
I don’t hear many people talk about general contractor/specialist labor costs
If you’ve gotten quotes recently you’d know it’s absolutely insane, we need to start running campaigns for women to get into trades like we did for getting women to code
BRB 40k for a new roof, 50k to replace a deck, 100k for foundation repair, 40k to repipe the house, 20k for new electrical panel, 20k to replace AC unit. The quotes for stuff like this will make your jaw fall to the floor
Most of these homes on the market are fixer uppers that need work like this based on when I looked at some homes around recently
You aren’t going to be happy when you spend 800k on a 400k house that needs 200k in work
Especially in a hcol area.
Got a quote for a semi small kitchen renovation for like 100k lol. Not even that high end.
Bathroom quotes for like 50k lol
Putting up fences for like 30k
And all the tradies are likely illegals and speak only Spanish.
06-13-2023, 05:43 PM
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#153
- Destor
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^^ Labour costs are way up and will continue upwards in construction, and people who don’t want to lose their lower locked in rates are likely plugging money into renovations rather than selling and moving
06-13-2023, 05:55 PM
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#154
Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Will be like this for long time. Why would people move out of their 2% rate house?Houses in my area list on a Friday and are sold by Monday, prices are only 10% less than 2021 peak but rates are 2.5x higher. There simply isn’t enough supply.
06-13-2023, 06:14 PM
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#155
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Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
Is something like this even possible. I find it hard to believe.if you think it's bad now wait till the fed pivots in 9 months, median price is bumping up another 25%, not to mention the coasts will become de-facto untouchable as entry level homes will start at 1.5 mil
Oh, saw you mentioned coasts.. so you mean NYC/SF. Not hard to believe then.
06-13-2023, 06:22 PM
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#156
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Reality is that mortgage rates have only now returned to the historical average, we’re even still below the average depending on which source you use: Google’s first result when digging is a historica mortgage rate average of 7.75% going back to 1971.
Legit high mortgage rates are way above this, try 20%+ during the ‘80s period of The Great Inflation.
Prices are way up but so are wages and I think more wage growth might be coming just based on anecdotal knowledge of major union contracts etc being negotiated with big pay bumps.
Legit high mortgage rates are way above this, try 20%+ during the ‘80s period of The Great Inflation.
Prices are way up but so are wages and I think more wage growth might be coming just based on anecdotal knowledge of major union contracts etc being negotiated with big pay bumps.
06-13-2023, 06:35 PM
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#157
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Historical averages don't mean a thing for interest rates. It's really just overall affordability.Reality is that mortgage rates have only now returned to the historical average, we’re even still below the average depending on which source you use: Google’s first result when digging is a historica mortgage rate average of 7.75% going back to 1971.
Legit high mortgage rates are way above this, try 20%+ during the ‘80s period of The Great Inflation.
Prices are way up but so are wages and I think more wage growth might be coming just based on anecdotal knowledge of major union contracts etc being negotiated with big pay bumps.
Legit high mortgage rates are way above this, try 20%+ during the ‘80s period of The Great Inflation.
Prices are way up but so are wages and I think more wage growth might be coming just based on anecdotal knowledge of major union contracts etc being negotiated with big pay bumps.
The last time mortgage rates were averaging 6.75-7% like today was in 2001. Most houses in the United States are 3x their 2001 value currently, and wages are only maybe 50-75% higher now than in 2001.
Any way you slice it, something will have to give. Likely both Interest Rates and Prices will drop in the coming years. More people will move to cities and live in high rise buildings that cost much less to construct than Single Family houses.
People are just going to have to get used to living in smaller spaces. People who bought in the last few years are staying in their homes for life.
06-13-2023, 06:40 PM
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#158
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Price drop coming for what reason? You need a huge swing in supply/demand chart for prices to come down significantlyHistorical averages don't mean a thing for interest rates. It's really just overall affordability.
The last time mortgage rates were averaging 6.75-7% like today was in 2001. Most houses in the United States are 3x their 2001 value currently, and wages are only maybe 50-75% higher now than in 2001.
Any way you slice it, something will have to give. Likely both Interest Rates and Prices will drop in the coming years. More people will move to cities and live in high rise buildings that cost much less to construct than Single Family houses.
People are just going to have to get used to living in smaller spaces. People who bought in the last few years are staying in their homes for life.
The last time mortgage rates were averaging 6.75-7% like today was in 2001. Most houses in the United States are 3x their 2001 value currently, and wages are only maybe 50-75% higher now than in 2001.
Any way you slice it, something will have to give. Likely both Interest Rates and Prices will drop in the coming years. More people will move to cities and live in high rise buildings that cost much less to construct than Single Family houses.
People are just going to have to get used to living in smaller spaces. People who bought in the last few years are staying in their homes for life.
The majority of people are locked in to very low mortgages with very low interest rates. They're not gonna sell anytime soon. Supply of houses will be very low for a long time
If supply of houses are low and you have very stubborn buyers who will simply not sell if they don't get price they want, how are prices gonna drop?
This isn't 2007. 2007 had lots of people with mortgages they could never afford. 2023 - most people are in very affordable mortgages
06-13-2023, 06:45 PM
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#159
- ElArteSuave
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
yea coasts are fuked, but the remainder of the country not far behind, $388,800 is current median price of a house in the US, come this time next year will be closer to 450k and mortgages will be in the 4.5-5 range, wont be dipping beneath that for a while if ever again. Thing is most of NY and Los Angeles is blown tf out now because the last decade + of cheap money, look at places in the valley in LA, I'm taking ****hole van nuys, where I still own a duplex, 1000 sq ft ranches going for 900k and rents out of control. The rent control is what fuks NYC and LA from an investment standpoint, I just lucked out buying a long time ago so the cap rates are double tbills which is why I havent sold.Is something like this even possible. I find it hard to believe.
Oh, saw you mentioned coasts.. so you mean NYC/SF. Not hard to believe then.
Oh, saw you mentioned coasts.. so you mean NYC/SF. Not hard to believe then.
06-13-2023, 06:47 PM
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#160
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Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
I don't really see that being a problem for people with good careers though. For the average family making $100k household income then yea that sucks, but people with careers who are bringing in $300k+ household income, just means they need to save a bit more and moderate their expectations.yea coasts are fuked, but the remainder of the country not far behind, $388,800 is current median price of a house in the US, come this time next year will be closer to 450k and mortgages will be in the 4.5-5 range, wont be dipping beneath that for a while if ever again. Thing is most of NY and Los Angeles is blown tf out now because the last decade + of cheap money, look at places in the valley in LA, I'm taking ****hole van nuys, where I still own a duplex, 1000 sq ft ranches going for 900k and rents out of control. The rent control is what fuks NYC and LA from an investment standpoint, I just lucked out buying a long time ago so the cap rates are double tbills which is why I havent sold.
Personally, I'd rather shoot for homes in the $900k-$1.2 million range and just wait until I'm 40 to put down a massive downpayment (like $400k) and just coast after that. 40 might seem late, but I wouldn't want to move to the suburbs until then anyways.
I'm currently based in NYC and between my girlfriend and I we pull in $325k or so, and are trying to save. I don't think I we would buy here though. Condo association fees are too ridiculous to justify the cost, and once we have children the city becomes ridiculous in terms of a place to raise them. We may consider a suburb in the East coast instead.
06-13-2023, 06:51 PM
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#161
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Cincinnati is a good deal sorta still, have a buddy that bought a dozen townhomes there for peanuts right before covid. I'm talking 80-90k a pop. they've all doubled/tripled since, all but one rented out.
06-13-2023, 06:53 PM
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#162
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
live with fam if you can my friend, bank as much of that cash as you can, if you're in nyc homebase in westchester or strong island if you have fam there so you avoid that chithole city tax. you want to be in westchester with kids, best schools in the country by a long mile. property tax is murder tho, looking at 55k on a 2 mil crib, or 27ish on a starter milly crib that will need work.I don't really see that being a problem for people with good careers though. For the average family making $100k household income then yea that sucks, but people with careers who are bringing in $300k+ household income, just means they need to save a bit more and moderate their expectations.
Personally, I'd rather shoot for homes in the $900k-$1.2 million range and just wait until I'm 40 to put down a massive downpayment (like $400k) and just coast after that. 40 might seem late, but I wouldn't want to move to the suburbs until then anyways.
I'm currently based in NYC and between my girlfriend and I we pull in $325k or so, and are trying to save. I don't think I we would buy here though. Condo association fees are too ridiculous to justify the cost, and once we have children the city becomes ridiculous in terms of a place to raise them. We may consider a suburb in the East coast instead.
Personally, I'd rather shoot for homes in the $900k-$1.2 million range and just wait until I'm 40 to put down a massive downpayment (like $400k) and just coast after that. 40 might seem late, but I wouldn't want to move to the suburbs until then anyways.
I'm currently based in NYC and between my girlfriend and I we pull in $325k or so, and are trying to save. I don't think I we would buy here though. Condo association fees are too ridiculous to justify the cost, and once we have children the city becomes ridiculous in terms of a place to raise them. We may consider a suburb in the East coast instead.
06-13-2023, 06:55 PM
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#163
Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
300k household income is like 2% of people though. Even in NYC, it's maybe 10%. You guys act like everyone makes 300kI don't really see that being a problem for people with good careers though. For the average family making $100k household income then yea that sucks, but people with careers who are bringing in $300k+ household income, just means they need to save a bit more and moderate their expectations.
Personally, I'd rather shoot for homes in the $900k-$1.2 million range and just wait until I'm 40 to put down a massive downpayment (like $400k) and just coast after that. 40 might seem late, but I wouldn't want to move to the suburbs until then anyways.
I'm currently based in NYC and between my girlfriend and I we pull in $325k or so, and are trying to save. I don't think I we would buy here though. Condo association fees are too ridiculous to justify the cost, and once we have children the city becomes ridiculous in terms of a place to raise them. We may consider a suburb in the East coast instead.
Personally, I'd rather shoot for homes in the $900k-$1.2 million range and just wait until I'm 40 to put down a massive downpayment (like $400k) and just coast after that. 40 might seem late, but I wouldn't want to move to the suburbs until then anyways.
I'm currently based in NYC and between my girlfriend and I we pull in $325k or so, and are trying to save. I don't think I we would buy here though. Condo association fees are too ridiculous to justify the cost, and once we have children the city becomes ridiculous in terms of a place to raise them. We may consider a suburb in the East coast instead.
For most new homeowners, houses have become super unaffordable
06-13-2023, 06:56 PM
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#164
06-13-2023, 07:01 PM
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#165
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Originally Posted By DDCT1135⏩
most dual income households with college degrees in their early to mid 30s are north of 300k. to be in top 5% in nyc you need to make 311k, to be top 1% you need to be at 777k, theres lots of ballers out there.300k household income is like 2% of people though. Even in NYC, it's maybe 10%. You guys act like everyone makes 300k
For most new homeowners, houses have become super unaffordable
For most new homeowners, houses have become super unaffordable
06-13-2023, 07:04 PM
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#166
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Originally Posted By DDCT1135⏩
Prices are already lower than 2021 in my city. They drop for the same reasons they dropped in 2007, but just on a smaller scale.Price drop coming for what reason? You need a huge swing in supply/demand chart for prices to come down significantly
The majority of people are locked in to very low mortgages with very low interest rates. They're not gonna sell anytime soon. Supply of houses will be very low for a long time
If supply of houses are low and you have very stubborn buyers who will simply not sell if they don't get price they want, how are prices gonna drop?
This isn't 2007. 2007 had lots of people with mortgages they could never afford. 2023 - most people are in very affordable mortgages
The majority of people are locked in to very low mortgages with very low interest rates. They're not gonna sell anytime soon. Supply of houses will be very low for a long time
If supply of houses are low and you have very stubborn buyers who will simply not sell if they don't get price they want, how are prices gonna drop?
This isn't 2007. 2007 had lots of people with mortgages they could never afford. 2023 - most people are in very affordable mortgages
2005-2007 was a complete loss of liquidity in the markets. Because the lending markets are essentially nationalized at this point, we won't see that again. However, people still need to qualify for a mortgage and most people won't be able to qualify or afford one during the next 10 years and will have to rent.
There will continue to be a lot of dense apartment development in the vicinity of urban areas. There will be fewer people developing Single Family Residences because there isn't much profit in doing so. There will be a lot of people living in apartments their entire lives.
06-13-2023, 07:06 PM
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#167
Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
The bolded is completely false. You're not even close to correct lmaomost dual income households with college degrees in their early to mid 30s are north of 300k.to be in top 5% in nyc you need to make 311k, to be top 1% you need to be at 777k, theres lots of ballers out there.
06-13-2023, 07:07 PM
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#168
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
While this is true, if you catch the market at the worst time, you can be trapped in a home for a long time.Time in the market tends to be better than timing the market…
There are a lot of people who overpaid in 2021 who might not see those prices again for 7-8 years.
06-13-2023, 07:11 PM
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#169
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Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
Got a source on this? Doesn't seem to be grounded in reality. This implies that both people are making $150k+ or $200k/$100k or some similar combination.most dual income households with college degrees in their early to mid 30s are north of 300k. to be in top 5% in nyc you need to make 311k, to be top 1% you need to be at 777k, theres lots of ballers out there.
It's possible, but to say most are at that level doesn't seem likely.
06-13-2023, 07:19 PM
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#170
- Destor
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Yeah but this is a borderline impossible game to play, prices could really do anything going forward. You might get lucky or you might not, it sorta is what it is.While this is true, if you catch the market at the worst time, you can be trapped in a home for a long time.
There are a lot of people who overpaid in 2021 who might not see those prices again for 7-8 years.
There are a lot of people who overpaid in 2021 who might not see those prices again for 7-8 years.
At least when talking about a primary residence, less so investment properties that aren’t intended to be a place to live in.
06-13-2023, 07:25 PM
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#171
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
I don't think you can realistically afford it at 150k. At least in Cali, on 150k you net 100k. That's 8.3k per month. I pulled up a random house on Zillow at 1.15M. It has a monthly payment of 7.5k per month (taxes/homeowner insurance included). I'm in that income range and I'm looking at 500k homesYou’ll want to be making at least $120-$150k to not feel house poor
06-13-2023, 07:27 PM
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#172
Originally Posted By dyee4613⏩
Are you trolling? How can someone afford a 7k mortgage on 8k income?I don't think you can realistically afford it at 150k. At least in Cali, on 150k you net 100k. That's 8.3k per month. I pulled up a random house on Zillow at 1.15M. It has a monthly payment of 7.5k per month (taxes/homeowner insurance included). I'm in that income range and I'm looking at 500k homes
How u gonna pay for groceries?
06-13-2023, 07:28 PM
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#173
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Originally Posted By dyee4613⏩
I was off on my math it’s more around 200k. But apparently in some of these higher property tax states it’s more like 300kI don't think you can realistically afford it at 150k. At least in Cali, on 150k you net 100k. That's 8.3k per month. I pulled up a random house on Zillow at 1.15M. It has a monthly payment of 7.5k per month (taxes/homeowner insurance included). I'm in that income range and I'm looking at 500k homes
06-13-2023, 07:30 PM
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#174
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
You're failing to show me any reason for why demand will lag below supply significantly. This is only way prices drop way downPrices are already lower than 2021 in my city. They drop for the same reasons they dropped in 2007, but just on a smaller scale.
2005-2007 was a complete loss of liquidity in the markets. Because the lending markets are essentially nationalized at this point, we won't see that again. However, people still need to qualify for a mortgage and most people won't be able to qualify or afford one during the next 10 years and will have to rent.
There will continue to be a lot of dense apartment development in the vicinity of urban areas. There will be fewer people developing Single Family Residences because there isn't much profit in doing so. There will be a lot of people living in apartments their entire lives.
2005-2007 was a complete loss of liquidity in the markets. Because the lending markets are essentially nationalized at this point, we won't see that again. However, people still need to qualify for a mortgage and most people won't be able to qualify or afford one during the next 10 years and will have to rent.
There will continue to be a lot of dense apartment development in the vicinity of urban areas. There will be fewer people developing Single Family Residences because there isn't much profit in doing so. There will be a lot of people living in apartments their entire lives.
The supply and demand charts are still fcked even at 7% interest and ridiculous prices. What else can happen to kill demand and increase supply? People are not gonna start giving up their 1500 payment and 2% interest for 30 year mortgages
Lot of people are saying real estate market will crash because they think they're smart. In reality, there's no proof of that
06-13-2023, 07:30 PM
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#175
Originally Posted By DDCT1135⏩
Reread his post lol.Are you trolling? How can someone afford a 7k mortgage on 8k income?
How u gonna pay for groceries?
How u gonna pay for groceries?
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06-13-2023, 07:32 PM
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#176
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Originally Posted By Zelensky⏩
im talking nyc and san fran , lettuce be cereal thats on the low end prolly.The bolded is completely false. You're not even close to correct lmao
06-13-2023, 07:34 PM
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#177
Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Illinois, it's every bit of 250K. You get massacred on property taxes on expensive homesI was off on my math it’s more around 200k. But apparently in some of these higher property tax states it’s more like 300k
Honestly, parts of Illinois suburbs - you'll pay 15K taxes on 2000 sqr foot places. These are not some mansions
06-13-2023, 07:36 PM
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#178
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Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
Nah...im talking nyc and san fran , lettuce be cereal thats on the low end prolly.
To be among the top 10% in San Francisco, your salary needs to reach at least $238,855.
The income in the top 10% in the state of New York is $291,906
NYC top 10 is 400k tho O.O
06-13-2023, 07:36 PM
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#179
Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi⏩
It's complete nonsense. Median income for college educated single person in america is around 80K. Dual earner college educated household is likely around 150KGot a source on this? Doesn't seem to be grounded in reality. This implies that both people are making $150k+ or $200k/$100k or some similar combination.
It's possible, but to say most are at that level doesn't seem likely.
It's possible, but to say most are at that level doesn't seem likely.
06-13-2023, 07:40 PM
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#180
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