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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1686794763 07-19-2023, 09:28 AM
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#3871
  1. Crazy_Desi
  2. Registered User
  1. Crazy_Desi
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Originally Posted By HMFIC_BROWSIN
damn boyos, if UPST gets back to $66, I'll be at break-even on it!

GAPED
A
P
E
D
Any idea why its rising? Or even a price target?
post 1686795123 07-19-2023, 09:36 AM
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#3872
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
  2. Buy high, sell higher.
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
  2. Buy high, sell higher.
  3. Join Date: Feb 2009
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi
Any idea why its rising? Or even a price target?
who tf knows.

It should never have gone from $400 down to $15, but here we are. (yes I sold nothing)
post 1686797003 07-19-2023, 10:06 AM
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#3873
  1. taf1968
  2. RIP GST
  1. taf1968
  2. RIP GST
  3. Join Date: Dec 2007
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Originally Posted By bsmit107
I've got a buddy telling me to look at PENN......any thoughts?

Says he's heavy in $30 calls for August and $50 calls for January.
PENN bagholder here. Youtube channel I was following awhile back was big on PENN, so I bought in late 2021 when it had dropped . . . then it kept dropping. Has taken an extended beating ever since. I've averaged down a little recently (my avg is about $40). Think long term it will come back, since people are hitting travel and leisure activities hard. YMMV though.
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

**Distal Bicep Rupture Crew (Feb 2013)** -- recovery log: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=151942933
**Extreme Dips Crew** - http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=136113651
post 1686804853 07-19-2023, 12:10 PM
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#3874
  1. sebackers
  2. Registered User
  1. sebackers
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Originally Posted By Destor
I go through post history when people post questionable things. If history is any indication and this call doesn't go right, you'll disappear for 6-8months until the market rallies again then come back saying you actually sold and did this and that instead.

Silly af, you probably shouldn't be handing out "investing" advice
So I let the market do its thing, and don't post on a daily basis because I make medium length holds or until price targets are reached and then I actually make profit and come out ahead and post proof? CRAZYYYYY. You got me there bro, I should've been posting online everyday in a gay indian bodybuilding forum under the investing tab, surely that would be extremely productive. Also, like my other posts since you seemed to do research on them, this should mean I'll be right and post proof right babe ?

Must be pretty miserable irl to be so negative, and douchey. Listen we all have no right in here posting "investment advice" I think it's obvious none of us have that right, but we do like to post stocks that we have faith and conviction in whether for confirmation bias, education, or other reasons. At least I actually post proof of what I do and don't just post highlight gains.


Paypal hits $120, within the next 1.5-2 years delete your account and never post again, if it doesn't I'll delete mine. Last time I posted about having high conviction and yoloing that one poster said I would have $0 and rope yada yada yada in a few months, so I marked the date, then I come back and he's nowhere to be found, hopefully you at least come back and look like a fool and eat your words before you delete, I predict you'll make some sort of cop out, and say some low iq response or some sort of analysis paralysis response, anyways last post in here before PYPL hits $120. See you then ****g0t.


JOIN ME PYPL CREW.

post 1686805863 07-19-2023, 12:24 PM
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#3875
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
  1. Destor
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This posted in the middle of November 2020



Would have been worth what, $1.6million today if you did absolutely nothing for 2.5 years?
post 1686812843 07-19-2023, 02:09 PM
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#3876
  1. kusok
  2. Registered User
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By taf1968
PENN bagholder here. Youtube channel I was following awhile back was big on PENN, so I bought in late 2021 when it had dropped . . . then it kept dropping. Has taken an extended beating ever since. I've averaged down a little recently (my avg is about $40). Think long term it will come back, since people are hitting travel and leisure activities hard. YMMV though.
When you see words “buddy recommended” or “YouTube channel” or “friend suggested” you can safely bet you will lose money if you actually follow that advice.

Because market works in a way where it fools most people most of the time.
post 1686813403 07-19-2023, 02:17 PM
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#3877
  1. taf1968
  2. RIP GST
  1. taf1968
  2. RIP GST
  3. Join Date: Dec 2007
  4. Location: Littleton, Colorado, United States
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Originally Posted By kusok
When you see words “buddy recommended” or “YouTube channel” or “friend suggested” you can safely bet you will lose money if you actually follow that advice.

Because market works in a way where it fools most people most of the time.
If you assume that's the only factor used . . . then yeah, not the best odds. If you do your own research based on the recommendation and conclude that it's worth some level of investment on and act according to your dtermination then it's not a foregone conclusion that you will lose money in those situations. Like you said . . . markets change and not everyone gets it right. Transitory inflation ended up not being transitory; Fed raised rates higher and faster that almost any other time, the most anticipated recession ever doesn't happen (not yet--will it?) etc.

I agree that you shouldn't invest strictly because "someone said so".
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

**Distal Bicep Rupture Crew (Feb 2013)** -- recovery log: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=151942933
**Extreme Dips Crew** - http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=136113651
post 1686822683 07-19-2023, 04:37 PM
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#3878
  1. imbeingcereal
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  1. imbeingcereal
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I'm glad to see $TSLA finally getting punished for it's declining margins. I'll never ever understand the price action on this thing or most of the tech companies nowadays. Small announcements drive up companies' valuations by hundreds of billions of dollars
post 1686832933 07-19-2023, 07:56 PM
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#3879
  1. Crazy_Desi
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  1. Crazy_Desi
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal
I'm glad to see $TSLA finally getting punished for it's declining margins. I'll never ever understand the price action on this thing or most of the tech companies nowadays. Small announcements drive up companies' valuations by hundreds of billions of dollars
I have puts, but don't think they'll be worth much. TSLA will probably break $300 regardless of earnings, nothing in this market makes sense
post 1686846733 07-20-2023, 03:17 AM
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#3880
  1. WiseOldApe
  2. Registered User
  1. WiseOldApe
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Anybody here HODLING their stocks?

I have 150 PLTR stocks (bought at $10 in 2020) that are now worth $18.

Would it be wiser to sell this stock for profit now or wait for it to potentially reach higher numbers.
"It's hard to be yourself in a world filled with haters" - WiseOldApe.

"Why be anything when you can be an influencer?" - WiseOldApe.

"It's not about what is said - it's about who it is said by" - WiseOldApe.
post 1686853223 07-20-2023, 07:07 AM
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#3881
  1. 2020Wellness
  2. Author/Trainer
  1. 2020Wellness
  2. Author/Trainer
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal
I'm glad to see $TSLA finally getting punished for it's declining margins. I'll never ever understand the price action on this thing or most of the tech companies nowadays. Small announcements drive up companies' valuations by hundreds of billions of dollars
I remember when the same thing was happening with crypto in 2017, especially the alt coins. It felt the exact same as the market does now.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1686853863 07-20-2023, 07:19 AM
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#3882
  1. bsmit107
  2. Living in 3024
  1. bsmit107
  2. Living in 3024
  3. Join Date: May 2010
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Originally Posted By sebackers
So I let the market do its thing, and don't post on a daily basis because I make medium length holds or until price targets are reached and then I actually make profit and come out ahead and post proof? CRAZYYYYY. You got me there bro, I should've been posting online everyday in a gay indian bodybuilding forum under the investing tab, surely that would be extremely productive. Also, like my other posts since you seemed to do research on them, this should mean I'll be right and post proof right babe ?

Must be pretty miserable irl to be so negative, and douchey. Listen we all have no right in here posting "investment advice" I think it's obvious none of us have that right, but we do like to post stocks that we have faith and conviction in whether for confirmation bias, education, or other reasons. At least I actually post proof of what I do and don't just post highlight gains.


Paypal hits $120, within the next 1.5-2 years delete your account and never post again, if it doesn't I'll delete mine. Last time I posted about having high conviction and yoloing that one poster said I would have $0 and rope yada yada yada in a few months, so I marked the date, then I come back and he's nowhere to be found, hopefully you at least come back and look like a fool and eat your words before you delete, I predict you'll make some sort of cop out, and say some low iq response or some sort of analysis paralysis response, anyways last post in here before PYPL hits $120. See you then ****g0t.


JOIN ME PYPL CREW.

So you're saying buy PYPL $100 calls for Jan24?
post 1686854103 07-20-2023, 07:23 AM
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#3883
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
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TSLA was 1/3rd of its current price at the beginning of this year lol, so a 4-5% drop doesn't really seem too bad after that kind of rally

Hell it was $241 three weeks ago
post 1686856743 07-20-2023, 08:19 AM
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#3884
  1. kusok
  2. Registered User
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal
I'm glad to see $TSLA finally getting punished for it's declining margins. I'll never ever understand the price action on this thing or most of the tech companies nowadays. Small announcements drive up companies' valuations by hundreds of billions of dollars
What is there to not understand? These are the best companies in the world, they are like black holes, they swallow everything, these few companies are the lions share of all the indexes, and they drive and drag everything up, ultimately 90% of companies will go to zero, but the big ones will gobble up everything and do another five or 10 X from here, unless you think that Apple will suddenly not sell any more phones and people suddenly will not want an ev.

Warren Buffett bought apple at an all-time high and made dozens of billions of dollars from that, that’s a very conservative investor, this is normal, it’s the way it is, just a few days ago I bought Tesla for $210 per share, after 30% profit it goes down by a few percent And you are saying you are glad it’s “finally getting punished”? It didn’t even drop low enough for me to buy more, nothing ever goes up in a straight line, these daily movements are completely irrelevant. practically speaking, it didn’t even drop, that’s how insignificant the drop is, go back and look how much money people made who bought cheap Tesla calls a few years ago.
post 1686856833 07-20-2023, 08:21 AM
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#3885
  1. Destor
  2. Registered User
  1. Destor
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I'm on one other forum where most of the people are rolling 8 figures of Tesla, or they were
post 1686856843 07-20-2023, 08:22 AM
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#3886
  1. kusok
  2. Registered User
  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi
I have puts, but don't think they'll be worth much. TSLA will probably break $300 regardless of earnings, nothing in this market makes sense
It doesn’t make sense that the best stock in history would eventually break an all-time high? Why would that be? I have never seen a Tesla commercial and yet everybody around here wants one, four of my family members say that this is their next car, Sounds like it makes perfect sense.
post 1686860853 07-20-2023, 09:31 AM
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#3887
  1. Crazy_Desi
  2. Registered User
  1. Crazy_Desi
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Originally Posted By kusok
It doesn’t make sense that the best stock in history would eventually break an all-time high? Why would that be? I have never seen a Tesla commercial and yet everybody around here wants one, four of my family members say that this is their next car, Sounds like it makes perfect sense.
I was about to respond but then realized you're the same guy that doesn't get percentages.. so I'm gonna bite my tongue. No offense lol
post 1686861013 07-20-2023, 09:33 AM
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#3888
  1. Venom08
  2. God loves you
  1. Venom08
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Originally Posted By Venom08
Tsla is now at a mega resistance trend line again. Might sell off 30% here
The trend lines don't lie
post 1686864583 07-20-2023, 10:34 AM
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#3889
  1. imbeingcereal
  2. Registered User
  1. imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By kusok
What is there to not understand? These are the best companies in the world, they are like black holes, they swallow everything, these few companies are the lions share of all the indexes, and they drive and drag everything up, ultimately 90% of companies will go to zero, but the big ones will gobble up everything and do another five or 10 X from here, unless you think that Apple will suddenly not sell any more phones and people suddenly will not want an ev.

Warren Buffett bought apple at an all-time high and made dozens of billions of dollars from that, that’s a very conservative investor, this is normal, it’s the way it is, just a few days ago I bought Tesla for $210 per share, after 30% profit it goes down by a few percent And you are saying you are glad it’s “finally getting punished”? It didn’t even drop low enough for me to buy more, nothing ever goes up in a straight line, these daily movements are completely irrelevant. practically speaking, it didn’t even drop, that’s how insignificant the drop is, go back and look how much money people made who bought cheap Tesla calls a few years ago.
Nothing you said has anything to do with what I said. There's no point in engaging because clearly you won't agree with me when I say that valuations always matter in the long-run. Apple is a great company, but it's not the screaming buy it was when WB bought in. Why? Because the valuation has changed and the risk of it not hitting the growth assumptions that are now baked in are higher. Investing in the long-term is all about being right about business fundamentals/growth relative to market expectations.
post 1686867013 07-20-2023, 11:12 AM
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#3890
  1. kusok
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  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By Crazy_Desi
I was about to respond but then realized you're the same guy that doesn't get percentages.. so I'm gonna bite my tongue. No offense lol
What color is your Tesla profit? No offense lol
post 1686867373 07-20-2023, 11:17 AM
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#3891
  1. kusok
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  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal
Nothing you said has anything to do with what I said. There's no point in engaging because clearly you won't agree with me when I say that valuations always matter in the long-run. Apple is a great company, but it's not the screaming buy it was when WB bought in. Why? Because the valuation has changed and the risk of it not hitting the growth assumptions that are now baked in are higher. Investing in the long-term is all about being right about business fundamentals/growth relative to market expectations.
When warren Buffett bought Apple, it was at an all-time high with high PE ratio and many people, including multi billionaire investors, were selling the stock, literally, nobody would use the phrase “screaming buy” at that moment, and neither did you. Hindsight is 20/20.

With a stock like Tesla, it was proven over and over that Wall Street does not know how to value it, peg ratio is more important than PE, and looking forward is much more important than trying to time to market in the present, how many times do big tech stocks have to prove everyone wrong? The doomsday Sayers are always the losers in the long run.
post 1686869273 07-20-2023, 11:45 AM
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#3892
  1. usersignup2
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  1. usersignup2
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IMHO the biggest metric that is overlooked when investing is scalability. How will this company make more money than it did before and can it keep up with demand? This is the primary reason why people don't understand TSLA - because they completely miss scalability. Now compare all the other auto makers. Add all of those up. It's not even remotely close.

I'll add the other primary reason people will not invest in TSLA -their bias against EV is clouding their vision.

Time will tell. I'm only here to make money.

BTW TSLA very near term pullback target $225 (assuming this week ends red)
post 1686873183 07-20-2023, 12:52 PM
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#3893
  1. imbeingcereal
  2. Registered User
  1. imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By kusok
When warren Buffett bought Apple, it was at an all-time high with high PE ratio and many people, including multi billionaire investors, were selling the stock, literally, nobody would use the phrase “screaming buy” at that moment, and neither did you. Hindsight is 20/20.

With a stock like Tesla, it was proven over and over that Wall Street does not know how to value it, peg ratio is more important than PE, and looking forward is much more important than trying to time to market in the present, how many times do big tech stocks have to prove everyone wrong? The doomsday Sayers are always the losers in the long run.
Something can be at an all-time high, but still relatively undervalued vs the market/growth, dude. It's really not that hard grasp. Apple is at an even higher PE ratio now and is now higher than the average of the market. This was not the case when WB bought in. How do I know? I doubled down on Apple around the same time.

Even putting that aside, Tesla and Apple are wildly different animals, so not sure what you're going on about. Apple has never reached the crazy valuations that Tesla has relative to profitability. If you want to buy $TSLA, go for it. No need to justify your decision to an anonymous person on the interwebs like me. The markets will tell over time who is right/wrong about the growth rates.
post 1686920653 07-21-2023, 09:39 AM
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#3894
  1. Schnitzl
  2. calf of peace
  1. Schnitzl
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While July's seasonality is undeniable, Citi's POLLS (Positioning, Optimism, Liquidity, Leverage, Stress) Indicator for US stocks just jumped by 6 points last Friday to 19, marking the *largest 1d increase* since May '19.

Readings over 16 have historically signaled higher probabilities of tactical market weakness, and this level was just breached for the first time since January 2023 (Bloomberg Ticker: CGTSPOLL Index)

post 1686936043 07-21-2023, 01:06 PM
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#3895
  1. Crazy_Desi
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  1. Crazy_Desi
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Picked up 200 shares of PLTR on this "dip". Going to sell calls and see how it goes.
post 1687097643 07-24-2023, 09:37 AM
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#3896
  1. Venom08
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I bought a sept 12c on amc today while the stock was up 15%. Now it’s up 35% and I’m up 60% lol
post 1687099633 07-24-2023, 10:14 AM
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#3897
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Oil headed to $80.

Market attempting new ATH while rates climb is daring fed to keep tightening.

Fannie/Freddie jury trial today for preferred shareholders suing the federal housing finance agency arguing that the 3rd amendment to senior preferred terms in 2012 changing a 10% dividend to a net worth sweep. They are arguing that good faith and fair dealing were not done in regard to their junior preferred holdings because it destroyed their ability to
1. Receive dividends as the company had returned to profitability in 2012
And
2. Could not receive liquidation distribution

This case was argued once 10/2022 and resulted in a hung jury so I’m hoping that this time around will go better but who nose.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1687179963 07-25-2023, 03:33 PM
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#3898
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
  1. RobParks2M
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If only I had the balls to hold my pacwp I was trading between $5 and $9. Worth $20 now that merger is happening and BANC will be responsible for continuing dividends. Couldda had 40-60% dividends going until they are allowed to call back the shares, but such a risk that no one would buy the company and they’d get pulled from the market on a random Sunday.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1687188243 07-25-2023, 06:07 PM
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#3899
  1. imbeingcereal
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  1. imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Oil headed to $80.

Market attempting new ATH while rates climb is daring fed to keep tightening.

Fannie/Freddie jury trial today for preferred shareholders suing the federal housing finance agency arguing that the 3rd amendment to senior preferred terms in 2012 changing a 10% dividend to a net worth sweep. They are arguing that good faith and fair dealing were not done in regard to their junior preferred holdings because it destroyed their ability to
1. Receive dividends as the company had returned to profitability in 2012
And
2. Could not receive liquidation distribution

This case was argued once 10/2022 and resulted in a hung jury so I’m hoping that this time around will go better but who nose.
Oil is potentially still the buying opportunity of the decade. The price can swing, but I still believe overall higher prices are here to stay because of the lack of supply. Demand ebbs and flows, but the long-term growth story is still there and it'll take months, if not a couple of years minimum for supply to come back. It'll also be harder for supply to come online with rates this high since debt to finance these capital-intensive drilling projects is expensive. I'm glad I bought some more oil stonks when oil was trading closer to $67. I think $80+ is going to be commonplace and the right oil companies will PRINT money even at $80. I think the market is still underappreciating how much cash flow the best oil stonks will print even at $65-70
post 1687207883 07-26-2023, 03:18 AM
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#3900
  1. baroni01
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  1. baroni01
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You guys seem like a smart lot, you mind helping me out? I'm a pretty basic Dave Ramsey type but still not sure if I got it right... like he says go for funds and i'm just into etf's...


So his 4 fund types are Growth, Growth and Income, Aggressive Growth, and International.

I have 5 atm..

VUG - Vanguard Growth ETF
VQNPX - Growth and Income Fund
VB - Small cap ETF (in my mind aggressive)
VXUS - Total International Stock Index Fund ETF

and then my fifth etf

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

Like Will VTI cross over too much into the rest? Is my money better spent elsewhere?
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