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Forum » Frozen Housing Market
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Thread: Frozen Housing Market

post 1686862633 07-20-2023, 10:07 AM
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Scarcity is always ALWAYS followed by glut

Wait 5 years

Houses will be going for half their current values (dedfknsrs)
post 1686862693 07-20-2023, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
You're able to rent for less for now. I guarantee you that arbitrage situation will not last.

It certainly does take time, because as I have stated over and over and over again, homes are not commodities.
Is rent going up? I thought it went down recently. At any rate a mortgage on an average house is like $3k+ a month, you can still find a ton to rent around ~$1k, granted it's smaller and in a complex.
post 1686862723 07-20-2023, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Yeah it is like the wild west, I honestly don't understand anyone that's buying unless they've sold for a great price. I also don't understand the actual prices, even given situation, the lack of inventory. It seems like people are just making up absurd numbers and someone's paying. It's wild. There's a house down that street that was $300k in like 2016, sold for $600k in 2021, and now it's listed for $800k. I don't understand the person that's paying $800k for that thing, assuming it sells. Idk where all this money is coming from.
yep. I am just getting out of a huge house in a country club neighborhood coming out of a divorce and moving downtown in my City close to my office and all the fun. Its a cathartic thing for me after the divorce that I need to do for my mental health, but I still probably would not have done it if I wasn't going to sell 2 houses at crazy prices. And also sort of targeted buying in an up and coming area that is the next trendy area here where young families and buying and renovating houses, so making the best of the purchase too even though its obviously unpredictable.

edit: while typing this got another text from a guy on my street that his coworker wants to buy my house lol.
post 1686862833 07-20-2023, 10:10 AM
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Interesting point...


Originally Posted By Retoaded⏩
yep. I am just getting out of a huge house in a country club neighborhood coming out of a divorce and moving downtown in my City close to my office and all the fun. Its a cathartic thing for me after the divorce that I need to do for my mental health, but I still probably would not have done it if I wasn't going to sell 2 houses at crazy prices. And also sort of targeted buying in an up and coming area that is the next trendy area here where young families and buying and renovating houses, so making the best of the purchase too even though its obviously unpredictable.

edit: while typing this got another text from a guy on my street that his coworker wants to buy my house lol.
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post 1686862903 07-20-2023, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Is rent going up? I thought it went down recently. At any rate a mortgage on an average house is like $3k+ a month, you can still find a ton to rent around ~$1k, granted it's smaller and in a complex.
Why do you keep comparing things like condos to a house?
post 1686862953 07-20-2023, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted By OGfrom06⏩
Scarcity is always ALWAYS followed by glut

Wait 5 years

Houses will be going for half their current values (dedfknsrs)



They don’t want goyos owning homes boyo, they want us all in 15min cities and bulldozer suburbs and send them back to nature, while they live in multi-thousand acre castles
Coincel
Florida crew (lol at coldcels)
post 1686862993 07-20-2023, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
Why do you keep comparing things like condos to a house?
Because that's what people who were looking at entry level houses have to do now.
post 1686863483 07-20-2023, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Almost everyone I know that bought pre-covid thinks they're some sort of financial genius now, even though no one saw this coming, and they only bought because they needed somewhere to live.
I don't know any home owners who think they are financial geniuses because they bought houses pre-covid for their decision to buy when they did.

However, I do know a lot of home owners who bought pre-covid who have spent the last 3+ years laughing at rentcels who keep predicting (more like pining for) that the housing market to tank. Especially when things were first starting to get wild in 2020, and most home owners correctly predicted that prices weren't tanking anytime soon from then.
post 1686863573 07-20-2023, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
I don't know any home owners who think they are financial geniuses because they bought houses pre-covid for their decision to buy when they did.

However, I do know a lot of home owners who bought pre-covid who have spent the last 3+ years laughing at rentcels who keep predicting (more like pining for) that the housing market to tank. Especially when things were first starting to get wild in 2020, and most home owners correctly predicted that prices weren't tanking anytime soon from then.
Sounds like the same thing to me. I don't remember anyone predicting that housing prices would double during covid in 2020, so idk why they'd think they were right about that. They were lucky.

Also who wouldn't want a crash at this point? Unless you're sitting on a lot of property and plan to cash out on some of it. Everything is overpriced right now, not just houses. We were looking at putting a pool in and apparently that costs 2x as much as it did before too. Cars, houses, food, it's everything.

Which makes it all the more confusing as to how all of this is sustainable long term. Salaries haven't really gone up.
post 1686863623 07-20-2023, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted By Retoaded⏩
yep. I am just getting out of a huge house in a country club neighborhood coming out of a divorce and moving downtown in my City close to my office and all the fun. Its a cathartic thing for me after the divorce that I need to do for my mental health, but I still probably would not have done it if I wasn't going to sell 2 houses at crazy prices. And also sort of targeted buying in an up and coming area that is the next trendy area here where young families and buying and renovating houses, so making the best of the purchase too even though its obviously unpredictable.

edit: while typing this got another text from a guy on my street that his coworker wants to buy my house lol.
You're going through a divorce? No wonder you decided to be an angry little asssshole towards me earlier for no reason, you take your personal saltiness out on others lol
post 1686863823 07-20-2023, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
People were complaining about house prices before the pandemic too and now look at where they are

Current mortgage rates are at about the historical average, they're not even high. If you want to see high interest rates, go back to The Great Inflation of the '80s where they were legit 20% at times. What was unusual was the ultra low rates we had experienced for the last decade, and those might not return again or not for a very long time unless we experience economic catastrophe like 2008/2009.
Most people here are too stupid to understand what you just said.
post 1686864043 07-20-2023, 10:28 AM
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Black Rock will never let housing prices fall, ever again.
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post 1686864523 07-20-2023, 10:32 AM
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Another L for housing crashcels

Lmao

Just checked Zillow. Up another 10k this week
post 1686864723 07-20-2023, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
You're going through a divorce? No wonder you decided to be an angry little asssshole towards me earlier for no reason, you take your personal saltiness out on others lol
Nah I went through the divorce last year my dude, I am in my happy place now. I just neg people who make threads complaining about negs.
post 1686865353 07-20-2023, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
Most people here are too stupid to understand what you just said.
Median house price July 2019: $318,400
Pre-covid 3.1% @ 30 years fixed interest: $171,063
Total:$489,463

Median house price July 2023: $436,000
Post covid 6.5% @ 30 years fixed interest: $556,094
Total:$992,094


Historical average or not. It's ****ing absurd.
Forever alone? Attraction and keeping the girl chasing you - http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=131498033

You will never know your limits, unless you push yourself past the imaginary lines you have drawn in the sand.

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post 1686865603 07-20-2023, 10:49 AM
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It's over if you don't already own a home.
post 1686865903 07-20-2023, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
People were complaining about house prices before the pandemic too and now look at where they are

Current mortgage rates are at about the historical average, they're not even high. If you want to see high interest rates, go back to The Great Inflation of the '80s where they were legit 20% at times. What was unusual was the ultra low rates we had experienced for the last decade, and those might not return again or not for a very long time unless we experience economic catastrophe like 2008/2009.
A huge missing part of your story though is wages --> wages haven't kept pace with inflation since the 80s (and that is without counting the hyper inflation of the last 2 years).

I don't know that there will be a housing crash, but something has to give. The U.S. economy relies too heavily on ppl buying and selling homes - stalemate is not it man. My guess is local and even federal government incentives come out to help ppl buy homes.
mo e
post 1686866403 07-20-2023, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted By pondus_levo⏩
Median house price July 2019: $318,400
Pre-covid 3.1% @ 30 years fixed interest: $171,063
Total:$489,463

Median house price July 2023: $436,000
Post covid 6.5% @ 30 years fixed interest: $556,094
Total:$992,094


Historical average or not. It's ****ing absurd.
Would you rather go back to the 1990's housing loan rates when it was common for people with decent dual incomes to get ~8.5%+ rates and they were happy to refiance later to ~6.5%?
post 1686867233 07-20-2023, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
Would you rather go back to the 1990's housing loan rates when it was common for people with decent dual incomes to get ~8.5%+ rates and they were happy to refiance later to ~6.5%?
I'd love that if it meant prices went down a lot. You can always pay off early. I'd love a 20% rate if we got sub-100k prices again.
post 1686867473 07-20-2023, 11:17 AM
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Date the mortgage, marry the house
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post 1686867513 07-20-2023, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
I'd love that if it meant prices went down a lot. You can always pay off early. I'd love a 20% rate if we got sub-100k prices again.
Wouldn't we all, brah?

But you gotta be fair about inflation here. A house that someone paid $100,000 for back in 1991 would cost them at least $224,000 today with factoring in ONLY inflation. Yes I realize that housing prices way outpaced inflation for a few years there in 2019 - early 2022, but people waaaaaaay underestimate how big of a deal inflation is when it comes to comparing housing prices over time.

Furthermore, people just keep wanting more, more, more. Back in the 90's, most middle class people were happy with a home with maybe 1 spare room for an office, a 2 stall garage, and 2 cars to park in it. Nowadays, they want 2 - 3 spare bedrooms, a 3 stall garage, 3+ cars/trucks/vans, a huge boat, a huge camper, a couple storage sheds in the backyard for extra chit, etc.
post 1686867633 07-20-2023, 11:19 AM
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I need screenshots of complete randoms on Twitter thoughts or no care.
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post 1686868053 07-20-2023, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Because that's what people who were looking at entry level houses have to do now.
So you don't compare renting a townhouse to buying a townhouse because?
post 1686868123 07-20-2023, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
I'd love that if it meant prices went down a lot. You can always pay off early. I'd love a 20% rate if we got sub-100k prices again.
Again, and this is really the only question that matters:

Why would prices go down?
post 1686868273 07-20-2023, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
Would you rather go back to the 1990's housing loan rates when it was common for people with decent dual incomes to get ~8.5%+ rates and they were happy to refiance later to ~6.5%?
F'k yeah. My first home was $112k @ 6% interest rate. Total mortgage (princ+interest+ins+tax) = $850/mo
I'm not blessed with riches, but I am rich with blessings.
Thank you, LORD, my God.
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post 1686868323 07-20-2023, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
Again, and this is really the only question that matters:

Why would prices go down?
Lack of affordability and the hype ending. A lot of this is hype and FOMO. I remember the last crash it was the same, most people were saying that it's the new normal and everyone wanted a piece. Then good deals actually popped up everywhere after, and no one was interested. There are still markets around the country that are uninflated, like Peoria, IL. You can still buy a nice house out there for around $100k. I have a few friends that moved out of Chicago to live down there because it's so cheap.

Covid was the same, even on here. How many people got those shots against their will because they believed that was our new reality and it would never turn around?

That said, I've been wrong about this since it started lol

I still can't imagine that house that was $300k in 2016 staying at $800k forever, it's just not worth that, but maybe I'm wrong and this time it actually is different.
post 1686868523 07-20-2023, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Lack of affordability and the hype ending. A lot of this is hype and FOMO. I remember the last crash it was the same, most people were saying that it's the new normal and everyone wanted a piece. Then good deals actually popped up everywhere after, and no one was interested. There are still markets around the country that are uninflated, like Peoria, IL. You can still buy a nice house out there for around $100k. I have a few friends that moved out of Chicago to live down there because it's so cheap.

Covid was the same, even on here. How many people got those shots against their will because they believed that was our new reality and it would never turn around?

That said, I've been wrong about this since it started lol

I still can't imagine that house that was $300k in 2016 staying at $800k forever, it's just not worth that, but maybe I'm wrong and this time it actually is different.
Difference being what happened since 2020 is the literal money supply was added to. Add the QE that was done since 2008 and there's a LOT of money that needs to be destroyed.

Also, everybody knows what happened in 2008. So if everybody is waiting for a crash, then a crash won't happen, because the conditions for a crash will never happen.
post 1686868533 07-20-2023, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted By OGfrom06⏩
Scarcity is always ALWAYS followed by glut

Wait 5 years

Houses will be going for half their current values (dedfknsrs)
Lmaoooooooooo


So we have 10% inflation and houses going for half. So really going for 25% after factoring in inflation??

Lolololololol.


Rents due retard.
Ol' 71st street. The devil that birthed me.

606 G0D.
post 1686868593 07-20-2023, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Lack of affordability and the hype ending. A lot of this is hype and FOMO. I remember the last crash it was the same, most people were saying that it's the new normal and everyone wanted a piece. Then good deals actually popped up everywhere after, and no one was interested. There are still markets around the country that are uninflated, like Peoria, IL. You can still buy a nice house out there for around $100k. I have a few friends that moved out of Chicago to live down there because it's so cheap.

Covid was the same, even on here. How many people got those shots against their will because they believed that was our new reality and it would never turn around?

That said, I've been wrong about this since it started lol

I still can't imagine that house that was $300k in 2016 staying at $800k forever, it's just not worth that, but maybe I'm wrong and this time it actually is different.
I'll go ahead and repeat what I originally said itt.

Everyone I know IRL who is salty that they didn't buy a house pre-covid for the past 3+ years has been assuring me that that housing prices will tank within 1 year's time. Yet here we are 3 years later, and they keep saying "give it another year or two!"

It reminds me of how the leftists changed "global warming" to the catch-all term "climate change". They effectively makenit impossible for them to he gramatically wrong, even their entire agenda is horse chit.
post 1686868623 07-20-2023, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
Difference being what happened since 2020 is the literal money supply was added to. Add the QE that was done since 2008 and there's a LOT of money that needs to be destroyed.

Also, everybody knows what happened in 2008. So if everybody is waiting for a crash, then a crash won't happen, because the conditions for a crash will never happen.
Then salaries need to go up by as much as the cost of living has gone up, otherwise people won't be able to afford anything. I question how they're doing it now with how expensive everything has become.
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