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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1688018143 08-08-2023, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
So here's the logic..

I bought 2 $49 puts and 100 shares @ $50. My original cost basis with 100 shares was $163. Buying those shares @ $50 lowered my cost basis to $106.50. Two things could've happened:

1) Earnings are somehow spectacular, or clown market does clown market things and UPST rockets upward, like 30-40%. Let's say it pushes to $80 somehow. My puts cost $1000, so I would profit from the 100 shares I bought after share price passes $60. Upside could've been $80 for example, so $2k profit. Or if things got crazy, maybe I would've even broke even if it passed $116.50. Unlikely now, but after the past few months, who the heck knows, right. From $13 to $72..

2) Earnings are a miss. UPST drops.After factoring in 40% IV crush, my puts would breakeven at $44. I take a $600 loss on shares. However if the stock continues downward, say to $40, I make $750 or so. If it continues to $35, I make $1750. At $40 my cost basis due to profit from puts becomes $102.75. At $35 my cost basis after profit from puts comes down to $97.75.



Now if I sold $45 puts (keep in mind, I only want 100 shares in assignment):

1) UPST moons. Puts expire worthless, I pocket $500, end of story. Cost basis becomes $158.
2) UPST tanks to $30. I get assigned at $40. Cost basis becomes $101.5.




Also yes, I'm trying to stay long. Just want to break even and gtfo. The puts were a hedge on the shares I bought. In the short term I'll profit from the puts on the way down, and in the long term I'm hoping for the shares to recover so I never realize a loss.
I think the problem here though is you're not taking into account that you're not only falling further into the red on your original lot of $163 but you're also now starting to get deep in the red on your new lot at $50. You're getting some profit from puts, but it's pretty much 100% offset by the losses you're enduring now on your new shares. For example, if it goes to $35, you're also losing an incremental $1500, which pretty much wipes out whatever you made from your put options in the short-term and you now have more to lose (an incremental $5K potentially) if the stock continues to go down. That's not even including the fact that you're losing an additional $1500 from your original lot, so in the end, you're further in the red.

Really what all this comes down to is you have to have conviction that $UPST will inevitably be worth more than $106.50 so you can break even sooner. I have no opinion on that because I know literally 0 about the company, but I personally would do that math before deciding to double-down on a losing position whenever that happens to me. For me, it's basically "is this company going down because of noise, or is my thesis broken"? That's all that really matters in the end.
post 1688020083 08-08-2023, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
Yea, I know what you're saying, I planned for that before making the play. If it goes from $50 to $25 for example, that's a $2500 loss from shares. However my puts are worth $3800 at that point. It might take until after expiry for that to happen, but considering lowest price was $13, I don't see it as a $5000 risk if things go south, more like $1.5-2k or so, if price settles at $20. I'm hoping price settles at $30-35 by next Friday (expiry). If it settles at $35, my puts will be worth $1750, so due to $1500 loss from shares my net will be a gain of $250 at that price. If it continues to plummet to $20 after that, I might have $2k in unrealized losses from the $50 lot.. which is ok.

If it goes that low again, I will be adding probably 300 shares or so to get my cost basis down to $50-60, and just wait.

Believe it or not I had 200 shares (in addition to my longs) at $16, and I sold them in the $20 range.. jfl. Could've broken even and more had I held them, but who would've expected a surge to $72. Crazy.

The whole point of even doing this was on the off chance that earnings were favorable. I don't mind going long for that possibility, even though it didn't work.
The problem with the put is it'll protect you for a period of time, but after that, you're now "naked" another 100 shares. Like let's say the downward move happens after the put expires. Now, you're enduring 200 shares worth of losses. That's why I'd rather just research whether or not the thesis is broken and cut my losses if it is. At least I can harvest a tax loss and write it off against some of my income. But my investing style is clearly way different from most of this thread lol.
post 1688042963 08-09-2023, 07:44 AM
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BROS looking thick, solid, tight
post 1688043063 08-09-2023, 07:49 AM
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Hey do you guys recommend the usual Dave Ramsey type or the some times Credit Cards make sense.. type?
post 1688043523 08-09-2023, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted By baroni01
Hey do you guys recommend the usual Dave Ramsey type or the some times Credit Cards make sense.. type?
Fuk Dave Ramsey, but jmo. His advice is for the average plebs that don't really understand finance/investments and can't get themselves out of a small hole.

I can answer most questions you have about credit cards and make recommendations. To make it short, the Capital One Venture X is one of the best cards out there. Costco Citi Card is another great option with no annual fee.
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post 1688044463 08-09-2023, 08:18 AM
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Full credit crew here but pretty financially disciplined, however my woman and I followed Ramsay-type wisdom a decade ago and did stuff like jar budgeting etc especially when we were both in college

Nowadays I’ll take any credit capacity offered and route everything possible through the CC
post 1688044583 08-09-2023, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor
Full credit crew here but pretty financially disciplined, however my woman and I followed Ramsay-type wisdom a decade ago and did stuff like jar budgeting etc especially when we were both in college

Nowadays I’ll take any credit capacity offered and route everything possible through the CC
Especially when cash back is so prevalent nowadays. Why would you not use a card and let your money make money for you? Of course, still only make purchases you can cover in full at the end of each month.

Just lol @ the average CC interest rate being over 20% now. Imagine not paying in full each month!
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post 1688045843 08-09-2023, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness
Especially when cash back is so prevalent nowadays. Why would you not use a card and let your money make money for you? Of course, still only make purchases you can cover in full at the end of each month.

Just lol @ the average CC interest rate being over 20% now. Imagine not paying in full each month!
Yeah man, some will argue the psychology side and say that using CC makes you spend more but I don't overly buy into that if you are generally disciplined. I've used CC rewards to get so much crap, just for spending money that would be spent otherwise.

Also try to use Airmiles as much as possible for gas purchases
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
Sold my UPST puts ~ $36.
Did you short it after it rose? Good move man
post 1688046803 08-09-2023, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted By _zman
Fuk Dave Ramsey, but jmo. His advice is for the average plebs that don't really understand finance/investments and can't get themselves out of a small hole.

I can answer most questions you have about credit cards and make recommendations. To make it short, the Capital One Venture X is one of the best cards out there. Costco Citi Card is another great option with no annual fee.
Pretty sure the Costco citi has $120 annual fee but they count it as having the executive membership. It’s funny how hard they push their credit card on me when I signed up for the regular membership.
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post 1688048883 08-09-2023, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted By _zman
Fuk Dave Ramsey, but jmo. His advice is for the average plebs that don't really understand finance/investments and can't get themselves out of a small hole.

I can answer most questions you have about credit cards and make recommendations. To make it short, the Capital One Venture X is one of the best cards out there. Costco Citi Card is another great option with no annual fee.
Yeah, Ramsey is definitely more for people who don't have any/much financial knowledge or discipline. There are people who just make really bad decisions and can't get themselves on track without his kind of plan.

We do some of what he recommends, but more out of coincidence than anything else. We paid off the mortgage years ago (I get the math argument--we did it for peace of mind) and we limit our debt . . . don't drive new cars, don't eat out a ton, saved/invested for college, etc. But we do use credit cards for the cash back and rewards. We put most of pur purchases on a Sam's Club Mastercard. Get decent cash back on purchases and gas. Most of that is stuff we'd buy anyway, so why not take advantage of the benefits. We pay cards off in full every month.
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post 1688054173 08-09-2023, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz
Pretty sure the Costco citi has $120 annual fee but they count it as having the executive membership. It’s funny how hard they push their credit card on me when I signed up for the regular membership.
I could be wrong. I have executive because it pays for itself. But the 3% travel and restaurants, and 4% gas makes it one of the best. If it in fact doesn't have a fee for the reg. membership.

Then Venture One and Venture X pay for TSA precheck or Global Entry. With X: You get President's circle with Hertz, pick any car from that lot, with no check-in. Denver lounge access for free. All kinds of online discounts, like Hotels.com.
Originally Posted By taf1968
Yeah, Ramsey is definitely more for people who don't have any/much financial knowledge or discipline. There are people who just make really bad decisions and can't get themselves on track without his kind of plan.

We do some of what he recommends, but more out of coincidence than anything else. We paid off the mortgage years ago (I get the math argument--we did it for peace of mind) and we limit our debt . . . don't drive new cars, don't eat out a ton, saved/invested for college, etc. But we do use credit cards for the cash back and rewards. We put most of pur purchases on a Sam's Club Mastercard. Get decent cash back on purchases and gas. Most of that is stuff we'd buy anyway, so why not take advantage of the benefits. We pay cards off in full every month.
Paying a off a mortgage early with 2-3% which most of us have, that's not a good move imo due to opportunity cost with that money. But yeah, in general it's a good feeling to be debt free and own ur home too. I believe in leverage, which Dave does not. I'd much rather have a more expensive home and a loan, because at the end of the day, the more a home is worth, the more dollars it appreciates. And consider it an investment. My home appreciates more per month than the mortgage itself.

I'm also considering a new home. BRB take the $200k equity of the current home and put it in a savings account at 5% and it offsets the insane rates right now, plus I have cash on hand if there's a significant dip.
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post 1688058853 08-09-2023, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman
Paying a off a mortgage early with 2-3% which most of us have, that's not a good move imo due to opportunity cost with that money. But yeah, in general it's a good feeling to be debt free and own ur home too. I believe in leverage, which Dave does not. I'd much rather have a more expensive home and a loan, because at the end of the day, the more a home is worth, the more dollars it appreciates. And consider it an investment. My home appreciates more per month than the mortgage itself.
this is my exact thinking as well. I did in depth calcs before buying my last home and put down 25% even though I could have paid it in cash. I used the remainder to invest and the equity I had into my home more than tripled. I also agree with buying a more expensive home. Buy the cheapest home in the best neighborhood. If the market increases on average, say 10%, the growth on 1M is 100K. Whereas the growth on a 500K home is only 50K. If you play this out over 10 years where, in my area home prices would easily double then you are talking significant gains.

This is very very basic and obvious, but you'd be surprised at how often it is overlooked.
post 1688061863 08-09-2023, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I'm opening a can of worms with this question, but for first time home buyers, buy now or wait?
We’re in the most unaffordable market in history, wait.
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post 1688062443 08-09-2023, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz
We’re in the most unaffordable market in history, wait.
I argue it’s debatable. What is the cost of renting? How long are you planning on staying there? How much can you put down? 15 year or 30? Lots of things play into it even if there is strong potential for the market to stagnate for home prices. Refi is always an option down the road too.
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post 1688066653 08-09-2023, 02:31 PM
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nice this thread still going been traveling last month plus be back sept.

commodities are sneaky going up. (cough crude cough)

this is big driver of market and if she goes so does market there needs to be healthy pullback here. (tons of etf/index track this shiit)

market is setting up for sell looks like into Sept.


good luck


post 1688073763 08-09-2023, 04:31 PM
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Did tomorrow's CPI report leak in the last hour or so? I feel like the night before the CPI report, the market has made a crazy move in the last hour the last few times. I highly doubt inflation will be good if not this upcoming report but the next. There's just no way oil moves this much higher and it has no impact on goods. Like I've said, I think rates will continue to go high until something breaks. My guess is this recession will be started by the Fed not paying attention to the lagging effects of rate hikes and hiking too quickly assuming things are good because of trailing economic data. We'll eventually break something, because we're addicted to spending as an economy, and everything will go to **** in a flash.

It's either that or we continue to get inconsistent reads on inflation every month and kind of mire in this slow growth environment while commodities/goods keep going up in price due to the increase in hurdle rate/risk for investing in new projects. A bunch of corporate debt will start having to roll over at higher rates and many companies won't be able to sustain it unless they press higher prices onto their customers. So it'll either be slow to no growth + higher prices (aka basically stagflation) or another "whoopsie, we broke the capital markets" moment. Not good either way, boyos.

Somebody who knows macro, talk me off the ledge
post 1688076793 08-09-2023, 05:13 PM
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Got 100 contracts for CANO expiring in Sept and they delayed their earnings call from today AH to tomorrow afternoon. FukkinA I might be screwed. I’m hoping they are finalizing a buyout, but if not they are likely in deep shyt. They’ve been selling their clinics with themselves as long term (15 year) tenants. So definitely raising some cash for immediate use. This is probably the biggest risk reward play I’ve held in awhile since my calls are worth 0 if there is any news aside from a takeover. I almost hedged last Thursday/Friday and sold half my position as they had doubled, but when each contract was bought for $15 it wasn’t really worth it to me. Let’s fukkin go I guess we will see boyos. Feast or famine- pappy van winkle or PBR tomorrow.

FNMA closing arguments tomorrow. Jury decides from there if government was within its rights to amend the terms of the senior preferred shares that turned into the net profit sweep. I don’t think the plaintiffs lawyers made any new compelling arguments against the government sweep or did anything better than last time so idk I think hung jury or a ruling against shareholders is more likely than not unfortunately. Only hope is that they didn’t better at jury selection and they got people who are more anti-government… Had private shareholders won this ruling I think the route to junior preferred share value unlock would be 2+ years sooner than having to wait for release from conservatorship.

Edit: moved it to tomorrow afternoon. If it craters do I dare buy more calls and hope to fuk they have positive news? Hmmmm. Definitely in the degenerate gambler gang.
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post 1688081103 08-09-2023, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I'm opening a can of worms with this question, but for first time home buyers, buy now or wait?
I started my search last month. I saw price cuts locally in the Midwest and Colorado where I want to move. I'd wait a bit. I'm waiting for an indication that rates will go down. Once they start going down I'll feel comfortable to buy, and refinance later. Meanwhile I continue my search. Leaning towards states with no income tax, like Nevada, Arizona. Need a major airport, lots of nature. Need to visit SE coast and see what that's like too. Heard the Smokies are underrated. Want a good neighborhood, a good view. I'm asking a lot for this next home choice.
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post 1688084933 08-09-2023, 07:30 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman
I started my search last month. I saw price cuts locally in the Midwest and Colorado where I want to move. I'd wait a bit. I'm waiting for an indication that rates will go down. Once they start going down I'll feel comfortable to buy, and refinance later. Meanwhile I continue my search. Leaning towards states with no income tax, like Nevada, Arizona. Need a major airport, lots of nature. Need to visit SE coast and see what that's like too. Heard the Smokies are underrated. Want a good neighborhood, a good view. I'm asking a lot for this next home choice.
The smokies are definitely underrated. I’d go that route, but I love winter and deep snow too much. My current grail move is to middle of nowhere Alaska
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post 1688086363 08-09-2023, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
The smokies are definitely underrated. I’d go that route, but I love winter and deep snow too much. My current grail move is to middle of nowhere Alaska
Sis just posted some pics on FB. Every pic was amazing and she's no photographer. Plus net gain on income tax. I'm unfortunately sick of winters.
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post 1688087833 08-09-2023, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
I argue it’s debatable. What is the cost of renting? How long are you planning on staying there? How much can you put down? 15 year or 30? Lots of things play into it even if there is strong potential for the market to stagnate for home prices. Refi is always an option down the road too.
I wouldn’t say it debatable it’s based on data, median US income vs median house cost is the highest multiplier ever. Sure it won’t matter if your pulling in 500k buying a 1.25m house but who wouldn’t be mad when the house drops to 900k next year (the risk) or you lose your big shot high income from something like a huge credit crunch (which I think will happen). in most areas (especially here in the west coast) it’s cheaper to rent than buy by quite a bit.
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post 1688114133 08-10-2023, 10:38 AM
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Cano is looking wild. There is a truckload of calls sold at $2 for tomorrow, Aug 18th, and Sept monthly. In total 45,000 which is insane. The 1.5 strike has a decent amount sold as well. I’m guessing there is a lot of retail interest such as myself doing it and perhaps the gamma ramp is why it jumped to $1.70 from the $1.3-1.4 mark. Lots of weird stuff happening the last 24 hours.

1. Putting clinics up for sale to try and gather cash.
2. Cleaning out executives and a solid amount of layoffs (400-500).
3. Clinics potentially being sold/closed
4. Earnings eeked out yesterday even though they delayed to today. Numbers were better than expected but still posted a loss and a small revs beat 832m vs 830m.
5. Call today after close. Hope to fuk they announce a $4-5 buyout offer to either go private from Barry and Co or Humana or literally ANYONE.

If anyone wants to gamble $2 calls for tomorrow are going for $6 each. Buy 10 and hope they are worth $1,000 tomorrow lmao.

Realistically odds aren’t good they break $2 in the next month or 2. BUT if they have insanely positive news tonight that pushes shares up past $2 there will be a ton of forced buying due to the volume of calls going ITM. That plus I think short interest is still around 15% or so could create interesting dynamics for awhile if they get something interesting going. Their current ceo is an old Humana exec so we will see what happens.
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post 1688161173 08-11-2023, 06:41 AM
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....Oouufff. That CANO Premarket.
post 1688163863 08-11-2023, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted By bsmit107
....Oouufff. That CANO Premarket.
OMG. Oouuffff is right.
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post 1688164333 08-11-2023, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted By bsmit107
....Oouufff. That CANO Premarket.
I shouldda bought some $1.5p for today as well they traded like $10-15 and I knew it was either good news getting acquired or they were screwed. $1,500 drop on my account today lol uuuf.
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So this is what i'm in currently:

VQNPX
VB
VTI
VUG
VXUS

Can you all recommend anything better? I don't really do single stocks like a lot of you do just index funds.
post 1688164953 08-11-2023, 08:14 AM
-
#4017
  1. 2020Wellness
  2. Author/Trainer
  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By baroni01
So this is what i'm in currently:

VQNPX
VB
VTI
VUG
VXUS

Can you all recommend anything better? I don't really do single stocks like a lot of you do just index funds.
No real advice outside of looking at VOO. Any reason for not making it part of your portfolio?

I'm also an index guy with Vanguard and stick to a four fund portfolio:

VOO
VUG
VYM
BND

I enjoy this type of investing and DCA weekly. The passive income is great, the lack of stress is great, and not having to put any time into it outside of transferring money, doing a few calculations, and buying each week.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1688165173 08-11-2023, 08:21 AM
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#4018
  1. baroni01
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  1. baroni01
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness
No real advice outside of looking at VOO. Any reason for not making it part of your portfolio?

I'm also an index guy with Vanguard and stick to a four fund portfolio:

VOO
VUG
VYM
BND

I enjoy this type of investing and DCA weekly. The passive income is great, the lack of stress is great, and not having to put any time into it outside of transferring money, doing a few calculations, and buying each week.
Just heard VOO and VTI have a lot of cross over and it's redundant.
post 1688168683 08-11-2023, 09:29 AM
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#4019
  1. johnjohnforward
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  1. johnjohnforward
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Nvidia is shttng itself
Bills mafia
post 1688168863 08-11-2023, 09:33 AM
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#4020
  1. 2020Wellness
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  1. 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By johnjohnforward
Nvidia is shttng itself
Zoom out.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
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