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Forum » Stock Market about to crash tomorrow.
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Thread: Stock Market about to crash tomorrow.

post 1692329273 10-26-2023, 08:00 AM
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#31
  1. katya422
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Government spending is surely part of it, likely as well are all the wage increases coming through in the data and those wage increases aren’t over yet — many unions are still negotiating contracts, who knows what further labor market craziness might pop up over the next year or two.

US Govt is pumping an insane amount of money into a lot of stuff, Infrastructure and Investment Act + CHIPS Act + Inflation Reduction Act

Insane amount of onshoring happening, de-risking from places like China / Russia / Iran / North Korea

All of this is inflationary.
Ford agreed to a 25% bump IIRC.

Saw a post elsewhere yesterday- man said his wife had recently begun working for some big healthcare concern. Said they gave everyone a 35% increase.

And I think that was smart of them as that will probably help them retain their workers and they are in a position to pass on their increase in costs as healthcare is apparently unlimited in what can be charged...sky is the limit.

Boost your employees' wages so that they can stay afloat and pass the cost on to customers, or else lose your better people who will be forced to look elsewhere to keep from going under.
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post 1692329803 10-26-2023, 08:12 AM
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#32
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Ford agreed to a 25% bump IIRC.

Saw a post elsewhere yesterday- man said his wife had recently begun working for some big healthcare concern. Said they gave everyone a 35% increase.

And I think that was smart of them as that will probably help them retain their workers and they are in a position to pass on their increase in costs as healthcare is apparently unlimited in what can be charged...sky is the limit.

Boost your employees' wages so that they can stay afloat and pass the cost on to customers, or else lose your better people who will be forced to look elsewhere to keep from going under.
This is a case for keeping rates higher for longer, wages need to go up but if prices go up in response that = a wage-price spiral.

Central banks will keep pumping the brakes to subdue demand and reduce company's ability to pass on those price increases in response to wage increases, particularly when it comes to stuff like cars that are most often financed and are part of Core PCE.

Disinflation is corporate margin compression.
post 1692330003 10-26-2023, 08:15 AM
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#33
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Originally Posted By OffwhiteBrah⏩
I'll have whatever brand of c0caine that OP's having.
The markets aren't rational. Haven't made sense for well over a decade now.

It looks like the bears are silly because they continue to point out conditions which historically would be indicators of a crash, but then no crash happens. Not because they are wrong about the indicators, but because there is an insane amount of manipulation going on.

Fun trivia: after the 2007 crisis the Federal Reserve decided to lean on the Vanguard program called Aladdin to manage the financial markets. True story. There is a master algorithm which is privately owned that is taking in huge amounts of data and then operating based on same.




Just think about how much "dumb money" in index/401k funds Vanguard controls.

These are strange times.




From April...they still dominate though-

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post 1692330093 10-26-2023, 08:17 AM
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#34
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Today was saved by the European Central Bank. Just going to be a moderate decline, instead of a 800 point loss.
post 1692330203 10-26-2023, 08:19 AM
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#35
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Originally Posted By WiseOldApe⏩
OP the people in the official misc investing thread think that you're full of shyte aand are just posting what you read on news article headlines - i.e., you're fear mongering.
The ECB held rates steady for the first time in 9 months today. This prevented it from being a bloodbath. Nasdaq is still down 1% and will go lower.
post 1692330213 10-26-2023, 08:19 AM
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#36
  1. Destor
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What's happening right now is totally in line with historical norms.

Markets do not crash when rates are being increased to cool an economy that's running hot af, inflation from too much demand chasing too little supply serves to pad corporate earnings.

Markets crash when rates need to be cut to stimulate a struggling economy, that is exactly how it has unfolded historically.
post 1692330353 10-26-2023, 08:22 AM
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#37
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
The markets aren't rational. Haven't made sense for well over a decade now.

It looks like the bears are silly because they continue to point out conditions which historically would be indicators of a crash, but then no crash happens. Not because they are wrong about the indicators, but because there is an insane amount of manipulation going on.

Fun trivia: after the 2007 crisis the Federal Reserve decided to lean on the Vanguard program called Aladdin to manage the financial markets. True story. There is a master algorithm which is privately owned that is taking in huge amounts of data and then operating based on same.




Just think about how much "dumb money" in index/401k funds Vanguard controls.

These are strange times.




From April...they still dominate though-

Aladdin performs the majority of trades in the market and black rock has steadily been taking everything, ever year, since they removed fund managers and implemented it to trade for them.

I liked when Jpowell brought up algorithmic trading as a systemic risk a month or two ago.

Like yeah no chit huge ai programs playing fuk fuk games with moving a bunch of trades around to make something happen where it can take more stocks for itself at the end of the day is gonna be negative for the market. Think Aladdin is pushing around like 21 trillion dollars with insane complexity.

Imagine trying to present this reality as the future of “investing” when we first rolled out the stock market. The citizens would have burned it to the ground. Gotta get the infrastructure in place and lie to the poor about “investing in other peoples business”. Then be like JK we gonna own everything even worse then monopoly’s were.
post 1692330813 10-26-2023, 08:33 AM
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#38
  1. katya422
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
This is a case for keeping rates higher for longer, wages need to go up but if prices go up in response that = a wage-price spiral.

Central banks will keep pumping the brakes to subdue demand and reduce company's ability to pass on those price increases in response to wage increases, particularly when it comes to stuff like cars that are most often financed and are part of Core PCE.

Disinflation is corporate margin compression.
I don't think it can be done [higher rates longer] without collapsing the governments.




The governments can't afford to pay higher rates of interest.
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post 1692331023 10-26-2023, 08:37 AM
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#39
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post 1692331313 10-26-2023, 08:43 AM
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#40
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Originally Posted By Duckliver⏩
Aladdin performs the majority of trades in the market and black rock has steadily been taking everything, ever year, since they removed fund managers and implemented it to trade for them.

I liked when Jpowell brought up algorithmic trading as a systemic risk a month or two ago.

Like yeah no chit huge ai programs playing fuk fuk games with moving a bunch of trades around to make something happen where it can take more stocks for itself at the end of the day is gonna be negative for the market. Think Aladdin is pushing around like 21 trillion dollars with insane complexity.

Imagine trying to present this reality as the future of “investing” when we first rolled out the stock market. The citizens would have burned it to the ground. Gotta get the infrastructure in place and lie to the poor about “investing in other peoples business”. Then be like JK we gonna own everything even worse then monopoly’s were.
Even bigger.

Imagine this + telling them that instead of having a defined benefit retirement plan their employers would "match up to X% of the employee's compensation that is invested" into this system which is then working against them as individual private investors.

Still smart to take advantage up to the matching percentage if you can, but peanuts compared to a pension.

My grandfathers had pensions and my father/uncle had pensions. My mom had a couple of small ones as she wasn't working full time when her kids were young. But by the time I started working the only pensions left were for government jobs. I did stick it out at one job that went sour to get vested in an ESOP I had contributed to, but then I had to cash out to help my mom keep her house. I had a little 401K from one job that was with Vanguard, but they dumped it into some other firm and I haven't been able to locate it.
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post 1692331883 10-26-2023, 08:52 AM
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#41
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Today was saved by the European Central Bank. Just going to be a moderate decline, instead of a 800 point loss.
you are like a leaf in the wind. or a cat with a toy on a string.

you think that these irrelevant temporary market moves and news make some kind of a difference.
post 1692331913 10-26-2023, 08:53 AM
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#42
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/econo...gdp/index.html
post 1692331963 10-26-2023, 08:54 AM
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#43
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The average person is left with nothing to invest in aside from locking their money up with the government for a ~5% return.

It's so over.

Goodnight sweet middle class.
post 1692331993 10-26-2023, 08:55 AM
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#44
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Originally Posted By OffwhiteBrah⏩
I'll have whatever brand of c0caine that OP's having.
This brand of ******* OP is on involves watching TV and thinking that what is being said has any relevance in reality.
post 1692332073 10-26-2023, 08:55 AM
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#45
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crash has happened. its over for us.
post 1692332133 10-26-2023, 08:56 AM
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#46
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Originally Posted By truesteez⏩
The average person is left with nothing to invest in aside from locking their money up with the government for a ~5% return.

It's so over.

Goodnight sweet middle class.
Bitcoin up 100% in past several weeks. Tesla up thousands of percent in a past few years etc.

Op: nothing to invest in.
post 1692332203 10-26-2023, 08:57 AM
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#47
  1. TryingMen
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I'm literally still up 7% this year with all of the doomsday talk.

Might it still go down further? Sure, but you still have to wipe out that 7% increase before we even talk about seeing a negative year for the market.


If you want to move everything out and try to play the swings go for it but I guarantee you won't time the start of the next upsurge.
post 1692332523 10-26-2023, 09:04 AM
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#48
  1. katya422
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Originally Posted By TryingMen⏩
I'm literally still up 7% this year with all of the doomsday talk.

Might it still go down further? Sure, but you still have to wipe out that 7% increase before we even talk about seeing a negative year for the market.


If you want to move everything out and try to play the swings go for it but I guarantee you won't time the start of the next upsurge.
I mean I've all but given up trying to predict where this is going given all the manipulation.

But you should at least be aware that IF the market falls below a certain level then it is primed to fall very far very quickly.

Has to do with many funds running algorithms that are set to sell off when volatility crosses a given threshold. These are large pools of money.

volatility hits threshold > fund X and Y start selling > more selling = higher volatility > new threshold is met and fund A and B start selling off

The algorithms/computer traders are set to cascade if the market slides too far/too fast, and this is known, so a big slide will be fought hard by the central banks.

They despise deflation.
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post 1692332783 10-26-2023, 09:10 AM
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#49
  1. Destor
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Originally Posted By truesteez⏩
The average person is left with nothing to invest in aside from locking their money up with the government for a ~5% return.

It's so over.

Goodnight sweet middle class.
Haven't seen 5% risk-free in like 20 years and it's already old news fuark
post 1692332933 10-26-2023, 09:12 AM
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#50
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Bitcoin up 100% in past several weeks. Tesla up thousands of percent in a past few years etc.

Op: nothing to invest in.
BTC and ETH crew checking in.

Most miscers will argue to the death that it's a scam because they don't understand it so I never bother posting about it.

Meanwhile fapping to the balance on my ledger since 2015.
post 1692333183 10-26-2023, 09:16 AM
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#51
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Haven't seen 5% risk-free in like 20 years and it's already old news fuark
Lots of consolidation in O&G. I know you know the deal in that space.

Midstream MLP's giving joocy divs while getting rolled up. Das it mane.

Writing was on the wall when price went negative during covid.
post 1692333273 10-26-2023, 09:19 AM
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#52
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Originally Posted By truesteez⏩
Lots of consolidation in O&G. I know you know the deal in that space.

Midstream MLP's giving joocy divs while getting rolled up. Das it mane.

Writing was on the wall when price went negative during covid.
Yeah my portfolio is almost at ATH, but haven't made a move in like two years
post 1692333503 10-26-2023, 09:24 AM
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#53
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Yeah my portfolio is almost at ATH, but haven't made a move in like two years
You have big Canadian players too like Enbridge, Pembina, Suncore, TC, etc.

Foreign fees instantly skim 15% off my payouts. Feelsbadman.
post 1692333773 10-26-2023, 09:28 AM
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#54
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Dumped my SPY $430 put too early this week, fuuuuark.
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post 1692334483 10-26-2023, 09:40 AM
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#55
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Originally Posted By truesteez⏩
You have big Canadian players too like Enbridge, Pembina, Suncore, TC, etc.

Foreign fees instantly skim 15% off my payouts. Feelsbadman.
What are you in? Most of my holdings are Cenovus and Suncor
post 1692334563 10-26-2023, 09:41 AM
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#56
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post 1692334593 10-26-2023, 09:41 AM
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#57
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Originally Posted By TryingMen⏩
I'm literally still up 7% this year with all of the doomsday talk.

Might it still go down further? Sure, but you still have to wipe out that 7% increase before we even talk about seeing a negative year for the market.


If you want to move everything out and try to play the swings go for it but I guarantee you won't time the start of the next upsurge.
I’m up 150% this year. Wtf do you people invest in???
post 1692335063 10-26-2023, 09:48 AM
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#58
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Originally Posted By truesteez⏩
BTC and ETH crew checking in.

Most miscers will argue to the death that it's a scam because they don't understand it so I never bother posting about it.

Meanwhile fapping to the balance on my ledger since 2015.
Repped.

It’s fascinating! The biggest money managers in the world, buying billions of dollars of the bitcoin, every politician, including the president owns often millions of dollars of crypto, entire countries are using it as official currency, multiple ETFs are coming for bitcoin, visa has partnered up with a crypto company, but according to random Internet retards bitcoin is going to zero.

There was a retard on this forum a couple of weeks ago that argued with me that MicroStrategy is going to zero, since then I have made $10,000 just on that one bitcoin stock alone.
post 1692335993 10-26-2023, 10:02 AM
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#59
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
I mean I've all but given up trying to predict where this is going given all the manipulation.

But you should at least be aware that IF the market falls below a certain level then it is primed to fall very far very quickly.

Has to do with many funds running algorithms that are set to sell off when volatility crosses a given threshold. These are large pools of money.

volatility hits threshold > fund X and Y start selling > more selling = higher volatility > new threshold is met and fund A and B start selling off

The algorithms/computer traders are set to cascade if the market slides too far/too fast, and this is known, so a big slide will be fought hard by the central banks.

They despise deflation.
It doesn’t work that way, sometimes the whales get together to take out the margined retards, but every dip is always bought up very quickly, this is because more monies being created, what that means is that prices on everything including stock market goes up and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about that.

Literally the most successful most profitable short seller in history committed suicide because he got rekd by the market when he tried it again.
post 1692336263 10-26-2023, 10:06 AM
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#60
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Bless you, OP, you're a prophet bringing wisdom to misc (just like myself).
Everything I post is satire.
Tricknology Grand Master.
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