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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1696220683 01-11-2024, 11:41 AM
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#4591
  1. RobParks2M
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I’m surprised treasuries haven’t popped more. TLT still hovering $96. I think drop to $93-91 is coming shortly. No rate cuts coming probably till June.

Still hoping to see some action on fnma. Judge is still holding up signing the jury verdict as they decide how they are going to pay damages to shareholders. They have till Feb 7th to get it hammered out with plaintiff ordered to file plan of allocation by Jan 17th. Preferred shares have already popped up to 10% of face value from 5% early this summer. Common shares have basically doubled as well.

Lots of past critics who said dismantle Fannie and Freddie are now shouting it’s time to release them. If they do so and fed only exercises their warrants common shares could easily be worth $20-30. If they go for more dilution it could be far less… otherwise preferred shares always have face value and a dividend that gets paid upon release and the capital to do so. Warrants expire 2028 so they gotta move within 4 years. It’s too late and companies are too profitable for them to try to move the companies to receivership. This could be play of the year if it isn’t the play of the decade.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696278313 01-12-2024, 01:30 PM
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#4592
  1. SipNPiz
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Anyone loading up on SWK? It also must be top 5 position in the Becky ETF
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1696431313 01-15-2024, 02:22 PM
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#4593
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I'm guessing there's quite a few people in this thread that are also heavy into crypto or at least aware and following news.

Anyone gonna be buying the BTC ETF? I own spot but started to think it might be beneficial to have some etf too, in the event i ever lose my private key or device getting hacked.. or somehow the offramps close. Like maybe a 3-5% allocation
post 1696468673 01-16-2024, 09:11 AM
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#4594
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Me too:

Oil $60-90 huge potential for swings either direction based on geopolitical problems arising. China slow down, global trade problems, Russia problems, Iran problems…

SPY 12/31/24: $420 range $485-420.


30 year yield: 4-4.75% I think cuts got priced in too hard. I sold my TLT after making that last post. Moved back to SGOV for less portfolio volatility and equal interest. Close out the year flat close to 4
Thankful as fuk I sold the TLT. Shyt dropping quick. Fnma still popping. Lots of people are using it as a trump trade because Trump wanted to release the companies but was stuck with an idiot running fhfa who he didn’t have legal precedent to remove. I’m still weary of calling it that because it has merit regardless of political party affiliated with president, house, or senate. Although would be lulzy if Trump just straight up sends them back to shareholders and has the senior preferreds AND warrants canceled.

Potential for the 8-0 jury trial to finally be fuking certified the 17th but likely not till Feb 7th. Also Chevron doctrine about to either get overturned OR significantly narrowed either is great for FNMA when FHFA controls them almost as part of an unofficial 4th branch of government for “oversight”. Also something comical FHFA which has the sole purpose of overseeing the GSEs has over 1100 employees at an average salary of $175,000. A casual 150% higher than the average government employee and they draw all their funds from the 2 GSEs including funds to pay their legal bills for their misdeeds. None of this structure makes any goddam sense. I’d love to know what 1100 people do monitoring the actions of 2 companies with 16,000 total employees and how to get a job at $175,000 doing so. Bunch of parasites if you ask me.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1696471863 01-16-2024, 10:09 AM
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#4595
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Woke up today and chose not to play around with options. Kinda regret it since NVDA and AMD popped off like a rocket, would've made multiple thousands from a play probably. But it's cool. Portfolio still went up by more than $1k from just holding some shares with them. Wasn't gonna do restaurant food but gonna treat myself to some Chipotle or something.
post 1696519773 01-17-2024, 09:37 AM
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#4596
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Bought spirit airlines it’s trading below book, market over reacting imo.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1696547553 01-17-2024, 08:30 PM
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#4597
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Bought spirit airlines it’s trading below book, market over reacting imo.
My kinda buy!
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1696578633 01-18-2024, 01:14 PM
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#4598
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Bought spirit airlines it’s trading below book, market over reacting imo.
They have massive debts coming due next year and waning profitability. I’m guessing frontier would still potentially buy them or JetBlue might try to keep the deal going. Probably a solid play, but I’d buy long dated yearly $10C or something like that so you aren’t on the hook for the full share price. That’s of course if IV isn’t insane.

TLT still plummeting. I’ll rebuy closer to $90 first tranche and only buy in 2 maybe 3 groupings this time. Buying 40% of position at $90 and if possible I’d buy more closer to $87 assuming it ever gets close to that point again. Bonds shouldn’t fluctuate this much but who am I to look a gifthorse in the mouth.

Edit: IV at 130% not bad. Bought 4 $10c for Jan 2025 at $1.55 now just gotta see if they decide going through bankruptcy is easier than refinancing.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696597343 01-18-2024, 07:36 PM
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#4599
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Uranium is going cotdang parabolic
post 1696621013 01-19-2024, 11:01 AM
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#4600
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Was looking at NVDA Jan 26th 585 Calls for the better part of an hour this morning. Nearly put down $17k. Chose not to. If I did, it'd be $13k-14k profit. SMH.

Portfolio has been going up though since I got shares in NVDA, AMD, INTC. All are going up by over 3% today. Still a +$1300 or so day so far to the portfolio.
post 1696624753 01-19-2024, 12:21 PM
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#4601
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I have 100k to invest. Would I be a complete idiot to buy S&P 500 now?
post 1696630423 01-19-2024, 02:15 PM
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#4602
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
I have 100k to invest. Would I be a complete idiot to buy S&P 500 now?
Yup. Hard shove all in FMCC $0.95 and thank me later with a $10,000 gift when you a millionaire
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696632143 01-19-2024, 02:50 PM
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#4603
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I'm in a similar boat, but with my HSA account. Want to invest it but feels dumb dumping it into any indexes right now near ATH.
I wouldn’t hesitate for a bond fund right now tbh.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696634633 01-19-2024, 03:46 PM
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#4604
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Thanks Biden lmao.

All time highs at absurd fed fund rate with QT still going.

We are crashing upwards.

Market squeezing the bejesus out of semi stocks and anything to do with AI.

Once again nobody cares about small caps or anything that isn't tech.


The flavor of this year again just chip stocks. Literally the thing that will get so many people out of jobs.



Last time I posted (month ago) I was looking for pull back starting Jan 17th to Feb 15h wanted to buy swing short in ESH24 and after today nope.jpeg

Only thing now is waiting for next week to see if there is some under priced cheap calls to play more up.

Maybe SPX call spreads or something.
post 1696634983 01-19-2024, 03:56 PM
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#4605
  1. NestBrah
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Yup. Hard shove all in FMCC $0.95 and thank me later with a $10,000 gift when you a millionaire
Thanks will check it out. What's your reasoning?
post 1696645833 01-19-2024, 08:26 PM
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#4606
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Thanks will check it out. What's your reasoning?
Cheaper than fnma and both are going to be set in motion for release before the election this year. Biden wants to make “the American dream” home affordability more reasonable and releasing the twins can drop interest rates potentially a full 100 basis points. That and he knows it’s on Trumps docket of things to do so he’ll just front run that part of his agenda. That and judicial losses are going to start piling up once their first major loss is certified which should happen on or before Feb 7th. It has become clear it’s time to release since there was never an alternative to having those 2 companies. They have a collective $180B cash and they’ll reach the amount they need before too long and keeping them is just a bigger risk than there is reward prospect for government. If they release and exercise warrants for 80% of the company they stand to make another $100b if not more.

Go through my posts and note the price it was back when I started mentioning last December/March

Edit: note I was sorta trolling though. Maybe don’t go all in lmao
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696670433 01-20-2024, 11:33 AM
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#4607
  1. GreatReset1
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This is Biden's America.

Some of you voted for this. Some of you wanted for this. Most of you deserve this!
post 1696671513 01-20-2024, 11:56 AM
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#4608
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Originally Posted By GreatReset1⏩
This is Biden's America.

Some of you voted for this. Some of you wanted for this. Most of you deserve this!
You take that back..

post 1696672413 01-20-2024, 12:14 PM
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#4609
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one isn't like others.





My AMD shares at like 2000 p/e say thanks.


ie.

post 1696673633 01-20-2024, 12:39 PM
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#4610
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I'm in a similar boat, but with my HSA account. Want to invest it but feels dumb dumping it into any indexes right now near ATH.
pltr is headed to $22 imminently
post 1696700023 01-20-2024, 09:37 PM
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#4611
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Question for you guys.

If you buy SWVXX in your roth IRA, do you pay taxes on that? I'm guessing no. Normally I contribute $500/month or so each year to my roth, while keeping the remaining money in my HYSA, but now I'm thinking it's more profitable to put the full $6500 into my roth IRA at once, put it in SWVXX, and then withdraw from that to make my monthly VTI/VXUS contributions. That way I don't pay tax on the SWVXX gains.

Also does anyone not even bother to include their HYSA profits and bank account bonuses on their tax returns? I have never included it and never had any issues.




Also: Anyone tempted to convert their 401k to cash?How much more upside can there be with SPY
Roth is 7k this year, FYI.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1696726103 01-21-2024, 01:00 PM
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#4612
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Ridiculous. It was 6k in 2022, 6.5k in 2023, 7k in 2024.. when will it stop going up? When inflation settles? I'm a year behind on contributions, usually do about 4k in April for the prior year.
Why would you not want it to keep going up? Soon these tax deferred accounts are going to be the only safe haven from the Government and even their safety isn't assured.
post 1696742893 01-21-2024, 06:23 PM
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#4613
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Why would you not want it to keep going up? Soon these tax deferred accounts are going to be the only safe haven from the Government and even their safety isn't assured.
His income isn’t going up at the same rate to boost contribution ayyy
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696746053 01-21-2024, 07:22 PM
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#4614
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Yup. Hard shove all in FMCC $0.95 and thank me later with a $10,000 gift when you a millionaire
IIRC you had a pretty indepth post about that and FNMA, could you point me in the direction of it?

Also why are there no options on these lol.
post 1696748173 01-21-2024, 08:01 PM
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#4615
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What’s up pha99ots
post 1696749033 01-21-2024, 08:18 PM
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#4616
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By BBAckman⏩
IIRC you had a pretty indepth post about that and FNMA, could you point me in the direction of it?

Also why are there no options on these lol.
I’ve made a couple and they were quite recent if you hop on my profile and look at recent posts. Id do it for you but mobile is clunky.

I’ll say this if they ever are released I’ll be banking close to $60,000 in annual dividends. Can’t wait to see what I get selling 200 CCs monthly/quarterly too

@Tug they gave me 3% last year and seemed to think it was incredible despite inflation. Bonus is where we usually get made whole though.

Still covering overnights at the local hospital. I think I got called in 3x in the last 2 months. If I don’t start showing up to do a normal shift here soon I’m not gonna remember what tf I’m doing lmao. The house supers are chill tho and I appreciate they can do almost everything without me. Particularly when I am sort of salaried.

Venom how you livin fam
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696750623 01-21-2024, 09:05 PM
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#4617
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Why would you not want it to keep going up? Soon these tax deferred accounts are going to be the only safe haven from the Government and even their safety isn't assured.
That’s what I was thinking.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1696754943 01-21-2024, 11:25 PM
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#4618
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I’ve made a couple and they were quite recent if you hop on my profile and look at recent posts. Id do it for you but mobile is clunky.

I’ll say this if they ever are released I’ll be banking close to $60,000 in annual dividends. Can’t wait to see what I get selling 200 CCs monthly/quarterly too

@Tug they gave me 3% last year and seemed to think it was incredible despite inflation. Bonus is where we usually get made whole though.

Still covering overnights at the local hospital. I think I got called in 3x in the last 2 months. If I don’t start showing up to do a normal shift here soon I’m not gonna remember what tf I’m doing lmao. The house supers are chill tho and I appreciate they can do almost everything without me. Particularly when I am sort of salaried.

Venom how you livin fam
Looking through everything, why even go into commons for FNMA/FMCC? Preferred seem like they way to go here.
post 1696772063 01-22-2024, 09:49 AM
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#4619
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By BBAckman⏩
Looking through everything, why even go into commons for FNMA/FMCC? Preferred seem like they way to go here.
I started buying commons more aggressively once preferred shares jumped. Right now you can’t buy a preferred share under 10% of their face value so you are capped at a 10x gain. I still think commons COULD go much higher as a 20-30x gain. They are inherently more risky which is why I am keeping that position relatively small compared to preferred. I bought most of my preferred shares around 5% of face value. I’ve bought/sold commons a fair bit so my cost averages are mid 60s for fnma and 70 cents for Fmcc. Freddie commons will get damages from the trial as well. Preferred get damages too but Fannie are getting interest on theirs which are accumulating at a 5.75% clip. If I had to estimate I’m 80-85% pref and 15-20% common though.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696772553 01-22-2024, 10:01 AM
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#4620
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
You aren't wrong, got my first 0% raise in corporate america this year. However I did get a nice bonus so there's that.

I just don't want to contribute more to retirement than I need to, granted I could just cap myself at $6k for the roth but then I'm leaving money on the table.
Apparently I should be very thankful for 3%. "Not everyone got 3%."

Told CFO I don't give AF what everyone else got since I bring more value to the company. I complain about it on every weekly call with him LOL. Apparently HR is still looking into it.
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