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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1696776683 01-22-2024, 11:19 AM
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#4621
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By _zman
Apparently I should be very thankful for 3%. "Not everyone got 3%."

Told CFO I don't give AF what everyone else got since I bring more value to the company. I complain about it on every weekly call with him LOL. Apparently HR is still looking into it.
I mean I get it salary raises are forever… so as long as my bonus keeps going up I’ll chill about the raise as long as inflation isn’t going wild.

Also up a casual 10 large today. Ty based fnma
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post 1696780553 01-22-2024, 12:31 PM
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#4622
  1. BBAckman
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
I started buying commons more aggressively once preferred shares jumped. Right now you can’t buy a preferred share under 10% of their face value so you are capped at a 10x gain. I still think commons COULD go much higher as a 20-30x gain. They are inherently more risky which is why I am keeping that position relatively small compared to preferred. I bought most of my preferred shares around 5% of face value. I’ve bought/sold commons a fair bit so my cost averages are mid 60s for fnma and 70 cents for Fmcc. Freddie commons will get damages from the trial as well. Preferred get damages too but Fannie are getting interest on theirs which are accumulating at a 5.75% clip. If I had to estimate I’m 80-85% pref and 15-20% common though.
Alright bro let's ride.
post 1696780683 01-22-2024, 12:33 PM
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#4623
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By BBAckman
Alright bro let's ride.
What did you acquire? Were you part of the gang pushing it up 25% today? Ayyy lmao
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1696785243 01-22-2024, 02:12 PM
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#4624
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
What did you acquire? Were you part of the gang pushing it up 25% today? Ayyy lmao
Haha yea we're in this, I was just a few hours late but snagged some FNMA, FMCC, and FNMAS
post 1696786703 01-22-2024, 02:42 PM
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#4625
  1. dopamine72
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When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port

Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1696788833 01-22-2024, 03:17 PM
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#4626
  1. _zman
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Originally Posted By dopamine72
When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port

Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Whenever the media and WH collectively agree that we're in a recession?
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post 1696789863 01-22-2024, 03:40 PM
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#4627
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72
When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port

Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
I did when fella mentioned it. Bought 4 $10c at $1.55 I tried to sell today but didn’t pay attention and it expired unfilled at $2.75
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696792363 01-22-2024, 04:36 PM
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#4628
  1. QisGQ
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Originally Posted By dopamine72
When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port

Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Got in on the SAVE dip! However, I had a decent amount of shares already so still down 51% overall lol. Glad I didn't sell any though, it's already had a decent bounceback past week.
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post 1696793463 01-22-2024, 05:04 PM
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#4629
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By QisGQ
Got in on the SAVE dip! However, I had a decent amount of shares already so still down 51% overall lol. Glad I didn't sell any though, it's already had a decent bounceback past week.
If they can rescue the deal it’ll be a YUGE rebound back to $30. I don’t understand how 9% market share is too much…


Edit:

PRIME short target: DWAC- it’s a pretend trump linked SPAC that has nothing going for it. It’s worth $10 and some change but just got squeezed to $50. I’m buying puts tomorrow either bear spread or just plain ol $25p. I’ll post a few minutes after it executes like I normally do if I actually do anything.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696822003 01-23-2024, 09:37 AM
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#4630
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Fuuuuaaarkkkkk

SAVE still going

Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1696831473 01-23-2024, 01:26 PM
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#4631
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72
Fuuuuaaarkkkkk

SAVE still going

Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
hehe tymen.

Anyone have thoughts on the regional banks and their overall condition? Seems like everyone thinks their liquidity woes are gone and they'll all be fine again, but they still have a lot of the same risks they had previously at least as far as commercial property loan exposure. Savings accounts are still being drained by both consumers and a majority of businesses so their interest income isn't going up I imagine. Anyone think we see a small panic in the somewhat near future for banks like WAL or ZION again? NYCB seems primed to launch though fuark.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696831993 01-23-2024, 01:38 PM
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#4632
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My boomer stock VZ crushing it
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1696848643 01-23-2024, 07:24 PM
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#4633
  1. RobParks2M
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Orange man win NH. Fnma we ready. Bought 800 more fnmaj at $3.55 and 1000 Fmcc at $1.15 against my better judgement earlier today. Can’t have too much of a good thing right?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696861963 01-24-2024, 03:37 AM
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#4634
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
When do you guys think HYSA rates will come back down to what they used to be (0.5% or so)?
Probably 20 years from now. 0% rates aren’t super realistic
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696878903 01-24-2024, 10:37 AM
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#4635
  1. _zman
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
When do you guys think HYSA rates will come back down to what they used to be (0.5% or so)?
Depends on fed actions. I'd assume they'll taper a few points in 2024, but for now I'm raking it in.
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post 1696889743 01-24-2024, 02:20 PM
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#4636
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
Anyone have thoughts on SOFI earnings next Monday? I sold some $6.5P for 2/9 expiry.
Feels like it’ll either be huge and they spike hard as fuk with profitability and big guidance. Or they don’t manage profitability that was already baked in and they crash hard. Doesn’t seem likely they sit flat and I imagine their student loan refinancing hasn’t been particularly great for top or bottom line.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696894433 01-24-2024, 04:12 PM
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#4637
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after Tesla earnings today.

pretty much confirmed the end of EV bubble.


Tesla earnings/demand hit brick wall.

Confirmed in conference call they will sell less cars this year.

Now trades just like every other car company.

decreased:
growth
demand
margins

off the peak of EV bubble highs

Tesla down -50%
Rivian down -81%
Nio down -85%
Lucid down -94%


Tesla will be $80-90 stock eventually.

Rivian and Lucid probably won't make it.










The shiny hot stuff these days is AI / semiconductor stocks.

That is the great bubble building.

However just like anything it will take tons of time to hit peak on semiconductor stocks.
post 1696896373 01-24-2024, 04:50 PM
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#4638
  1. Destor
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I've toyed with the idea of putting some money into Lucid or Rivian but yeah, the economy hasn't even started struggling yet and the overall stock market is at ATHs. The longer this goes on, the more resilient the economy is, likely the more these companies will be impacted and who knows what they might need to do to survive. If they survive until rate cuts come, even though those rate cuts will take time to reflect in their ability to sell cars, maybe their value will shoot back up but...
post 1696896943 01-24-2024, 05:03 PM
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#4639
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor
I've toyed with the idea of putting some money into Lucid or Rivian but yeah, the economy hasn't even started struggling yet and the overall stock market is at ATHs. The longer this goes on, the more resilient the economy is, likely the more these companies will be impacted and who knows what they might need to do to survive. If they survive until rate cuts come, even though those rate cuts will take time to reflect in their ability to sell cars, maybe their value will shoot back up but...
Lucid has big Saudi backing so they'll probably never go under and at worst they'll be taken private for pennies.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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post 1696898013 01-24-2024, 05:23 PM
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#4640
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Lucid has big Saudi backing so they'll probably never go under and at worst they'll be taken private for pennies.
Exactly, and then more potential share dilution on the side of Rivian

no bueno
post 1696901643 01-24-2024, 06:47 PM
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#4641
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Tesla is bet on interest rates falling, for sure.


Only cars they can sell and move is model 3 and y.

Other models production is (model s , model x , cybertruck)

Nobody is gonna go finance $100+ K car now with rates at 7%+

So basically buying Tesla is hope that Fed starts cutting rates and fast like 50bps+

Otherwise slide to reality is coming.




post 1696902683 01-24-2024, 07:07 PM
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#4642
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Carbon whatchu think about NYCB and their 2.5 P/E?

DWAC already sliding back to reality.

Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.

TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90

Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1696904543 01-24-2024, 07:58 PM
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#4643
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Carbon whatchu think about NYCB and their 2.5 P/E?

DWAC already sliding back to reality.

Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.

TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90

Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
Here is good article about regional banks. (Seems like no go)

https://archive.ph/44fuq



DWAC rise was Trump winning primaries there was short squeeze on that part. Short squeezes don't last long.

SAVE tricky one might be Microsoft / Activision thing all over again, could take lot of time. Think eventually they will be allowed to merge.



TLT drop = yields go higher


right now market is in will fed cut or not cut March and by how much 25bps or 50bps.

just keep in mind one good inflation report and pressure for fed to cut will grow like wildfire.
post 1696906503 01-24-2024, 08:53 PM
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#4644
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
Here is good article about regional banks. (Seems like no go)

https://archive.ph/44fuq



DWAC rise was Trump winning primaries there was short squeeze on that part. Short squeezes don't last long.

SAVE tricky one might be Microsoft / Activision thing all over again, could take lot of time. Think eventually they will be allowed to merge.



TLT drop = yields go higher


right now market is in will fed cut or not cut March and by how much 25bps or 50bps.

just keep in mind one good inflation report and pressure for fed to cut will grow like wildfire.
I think NYCB might be an outlier, but perhaps they have more commercial exposure than I realize. But they got some awesome assets in a fire sale during the banking crisis last year. I think if I moved on them I’d buy WAL puts to try and balance my bank exposure. Sofi hasn’t looked great lately either is sorta painful. Payo too, but at least with their cash generation they are just continuing to buyback shares and will likely start paying a dividend assuming they don’t find something better to do with their cash pile.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1696907843 01-24-2024, 09:40 PM
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#4645
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The problem to me with regional banks is that the whole sector could only really grow through acquisition in good times. Refinance is dead, mortgage lending is getting crushed, commercial real estate sucks, lending long sucks with an inverted yield curve. There is nothing coming in terms of growth.The dividends look nice if it was 2022 but 4 week T-bill auction tomorrow should be paying 5.27% or 5.28% annualized.

No growth, all risk, and dividends less than 4 week bills. The business is so undifferentiated. I will consider a short if we can move up more from here. Probably a short on KEY but just because I have followed that stock for a long time and think they are trash.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M
hehe tymen.

Anyone have thoughts on the regional banks and their overall condition? Seems like everyone thinks their liquidity woes are gone and they'll all be fine again, but they still have a lot of the same risks they had previously at least as far as commercial property loan exposure. Savings accounts are still being drained by both consumers and a majority of businesses so their interest income isn't going up I imagine. Anyone think we see a small panic in the somewhat near future for banks like WAL or ZION again? NYCB seems primed to launch though fuark.
post 1696917603 01-25-2024, 06:10 AM
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#4646
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My angus is not peppered for TSLA opening today.

Already down 8% premarket.

Changing lambo.gif to pinto.gif
MFC
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post 1696921603 01-25-2024, 07:45 AM
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#4647
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Been sick of watching NVIDIA popping off and yours truly not taking advantage of it. Just did this.



For those who don't wanna do the math, it's about +$4.2k profit.
post 1696923443 01-25-2024, 08:29 AM
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#4648
  1. dopamine72
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You boyos DCA on this TSLA dip?
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1696923593 01-25-2024, 08:32 AM
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#4649
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Something that was only briefly mentioned on the Tesla call and that also impacts other reasonably-priced EVs including Rivians (not Lucid, too expensive): the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies that will likely be reducing next year and will offset rate cuts.

At the start of this year vehicles started losing the credit if they contain any battery components from foreign entities of concern, next year that expands to batteries containing any critical minerals from foreign entities of concern. Minerals will be a MUCH bigger hurdle than components, China and North Korea together have a near monopoly on stuff like battery-grade graphite and a range of other things.

I won't be shocked if zero vehicles qualify for the full $7500 next year, not too sure what's happening with subsidies in the EU or China but seems like risk to the downside
post 1696929493 01-25-2024, 10:25 AM
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#4650
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Originally Posted By dopamine72
You boyos DCA on this TSLA dip?
Got an order in for $181.00 right now.
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