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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
01-22-2024, 11:19 AM
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#4621
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I mean I get it salary raises are forever… so as long as my bonus keeps going up I’ll chill about the raise as long as inflation isn’t going wild.Apparently I should be very thankful for 3%. "Not everyone got 3%."
Told CFO I don't give AF what everyone else got since I bring more value to the company. I complain about it on every weekly call with him LOL. Apparently HR is still looking into it.
Told CFO I don't give AF what everyone else got since I bring more value to the company. I complain about it on every weekly call with him LOL. Apparently HR is still looking into it.
Also up a casual 10 large today. Ty based fnma

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01-22-2024, 12:31 PM
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#4622
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Alright bro let's ride.I started buying commons more aggressively once preferred shares jumped. Right now you can’t buy a preferred share under 10% of their face value so you are capped at a 10x gain. I still think commons COULD go much higher as a 20-30x gain. They are inherently more risky which is why I am keeping that position relatively small compared to preferred. I bought most of my preferred shares around 5% of face value. I’ve bought/sold commons a fair bit so my cost averages are mid 60s for fnma and 70 cents for Fmcc. Freddie commons will get damages from the trial as well. Preferred get damages too but Fannie are getting interest on theirs which are accumulating at a 5.75% clip. If I had to estimate I’m 80-85% pref and 15-20% common though.
01-22-2024, 12:33 PM
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#4623
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Originally Posted By BBAckman⏩
What did you acquire? Were you part of the gang pushing it up 25% today? Ayyy lmaoAlright bro let's ride.
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01-22-2024, 02:12 PM
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#4624
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Haha yea we're in this, I was just a few hours late but snagged some FNMA, FMCC, and FNMASWhat did you acquire? Were you part of the gang pushing it up 25% today? Ayyy lmao
01-22-2024, 02:42 PM
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#4625
- dopamine72
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When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
01-22-2024, 03:17 PM
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#4626
Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Whenever the media and WH collectively agree that we're in a recession?When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
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01-22-2024, 03:40 PM
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#4627
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
I did when fella mentioned it. Bought 4 $10c at $1.55 I tried to sell today but didn’t pay attention and it expired unfilled at $2.75When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
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01-22-2024, 04:36 PM
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#4628
- QisGQ
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Got in on the SAVE dip! However, I had a decent amount of shares already so still down 51% overall lol. Glad I didn't sell any though, it's already had a decent bounceback past week.When the fuk is the correction gonna happen?! I'm all cash besides my AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TLRY, ABNB + my divvy port
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
Anyone buy the SAVE dip? Fukin easy 20% in a day
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01-22-2024, 05:04 PM
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#4629
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By QisGQ⏩
If they can rescue the deal it’ll be a YUGE rebound back to $30. I don’t understand how 9% market share is too much…Got in on the SAVE dip! However, I had a decent amount of shares already so still down 51% overall lol. Glad I didn't sell any though, it's already had a decent bounceback past week.
Edit:
PRIME short target: DWAC- it’s a pretend trump linked SPAC that has nothing going for it. It’s worth $10 and some change but just got squeezed to $50. I’m buying puts tomorrow either bear spread or just plain ol $25p. I’ll post a few minutes after it executes like I normally do if I actually do anything.
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01-23-2024, 09:37 AM
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#4630
- dopamine72
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Fuuuuaaarkkkkk
SAVE still going
Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
SAVE still going
Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
01-23-2024, 01:26 PM
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#4631
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
hehe tymen.Fuuuuaaarkkkkk
SAVE still going
Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
SAVE still going
Nice work to the bros that got in!!!
Anyone have thoughts on the regional banks and their overall condition? Seems like everyone thinks their liquidity woes are gone and they'll all be fine again, but they still have a lot of the same risks they had previously at least as far as commercial property loan exposure. Savings accounts are still being drained by both consumers and a majority of businesses so their interest income isn't going up I imagine. Anyone think we see a small panic in the somewhat near future for banks like WAL or ZION again? NYCB seems primed to launch though fuark.
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01-23-2024, 01:38 PM
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#4632
01-23-2024, 07:24 PM
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#4633
- RobParks2M
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Orange man win NH. Fnma we ready. Bought 800 more fnmaj at $3.55 and 1000 Fmcc at $1.15 against my better judgement earlier today. Can’t have too much of a good thing right?
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01-24-2024, 03:37 AM
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#4634
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Probably 20 years from now. 0% rates aren’t super realisticWhen do you guys think HYSA rates will come back down to what they used to be (0.5% or so)?
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01-24-2024, 10:37 AM
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#4635
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Depends on fed actions. I'd assume they'll taper a few points in 2024, but for now I'm raking it in.When do you guys think HYSA rates will come back down to what they used to be (0.5% or so)?
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01-24-2024, 02:20 PM
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#4636
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Feels like it’ll either be huge and they spike hard as fuk with profitability and big guidance. Or they don’t manage profitability that was already baked in and they crash hard. Doesn’t seem likely they sit flat and I imagine their student loan refinancing hasn’t been particularly great for top or bottom line.Anyone have thoughts on SOFI earnings next Monday? I sold some $6.5P for 2/9 expiry.
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01-24-2024, 04:12 PM
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#4637
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after Tesla earnings today.
pretty much confirmed the end of EV bubble.
Tesla earnings/demand hit brick wall.
Confirmed in conference call they will sell less cars this year.
Now trades just like every other car company.
decreased:
growth
demand
margins
off the peak of EV bubble highs
Tesla down -50%
Rivian down -81%
Nio down -85%
Lucid down -94%
Tesla will be $80-90 stock eventually.
Rivian and Lucid probably won't make it.

The shiny hot stuff these days is AI / semiconductor stocks.
That is the great bubble building.
However just like anything it will take tons of time to hit peak on semiconductor stocks.
pretty much confirmed the end of EV bubble.
Tesla earnings/demand hit brick wall.
Confirmed in conference call they will sell less cars this year.
Now trades just like every other car company.
decreased:
growth
demand
margins
off the peak of EV bubble highs
Tesla down -50%
Rivian down -81%
Nio down -85%
Lucid down -94%
Tesla will be $80-90 stock eventually.
Rivian and Lucid probably won't make it.

The shiny hot stuff these days is AI / semiconductor stocks.
That is the great bubble building.
However just like anything it will take tons of time to hit peak on semiconductor stocks.
01-24-2024, 04:50 PM
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#4638
- Destor
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I've toyed with the idea of putting some money into Lucid or Rivian but yeah, the economy hasn't even started struggling yet and the overall stock market is at ATHs. The longer this goes on, the more resilient the economy is, likely the more these companies will be impacted and who knows what they might need to do to survive. If they survive until rate cuts come, even though those rate cuts will take time to reflect in their ability to sell cars, maybe their value will shoot back up but...
01-24-2024, 05:03 PM
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#4639
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Lucid has big Saudi backing so they'll probably never go under and at worst they'll be taken private for pennies.I've toyed with the idea of putting some money into Lucid or Rivian but yeah, the economy hasn't even started struggling yet and the overall stock market is at ATHs. The longer this goes on, the more resilient the economy is, likely the more these companies will be impacted and who knows what they might need to do to survive. If they survive until rate cuts come, even though those rate cuts will take time to reflect in their ability to sell cars, maybe their value will shoot back up but...
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01-24-2024, 05:23 PM
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#4640
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Exactly, and then more potential share dilution on the side of RivianLucid has big Saudi backing so they'll probably never go under and at worst they'll be taken private for pennies.
no bueno
01-24-2024, 06:47 PM
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#4641
- Carbonfibre
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Tesla is bet on interest rates falling, for sure.
Only cars they can sell and move is model 3 and y.
Other models production is (model s , model x , cybertruck)
Nobody is gonna go finance $100+ K car now with rates at 7%+
So basically buying Tesla is hope that Fed starts cutting rates and fast like 50bps+
Otherwise slide to reality is coming.


Only cars they can sell and move is model 3 and y.
Other models production is (model s , model x , cybertruck)
Nobody is gonna go finance $100+ K car now with rates at 7%+
So basically buying Tesla is hope that Fed starts cutting rates and fast like 50bps+
Otherwise slide to reality is coming.


01-24-2024, 07:07 PM
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#4642
- RobParks2M
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Carbon whatchu think about NYCB and their 2.5 P/E?
DWAC already sliding back to reality.
Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.
TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90
Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
DWAC already sliding back to reality.
Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.
TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90

Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
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01-24-2024, 07:58 PM
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#4643
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Here is good article about regional banks. (Seems like no go)Carbon whatchu think about NYCB and their 2.5 P/E?
DWAC already sliding back to reality.
Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.
TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90
Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
DWAC already sliding back to reality.
Save dump today inspired by Citi saying no way they get merger through regulators.
TLT dropping and hovering $93 is nice. Can’t wait for $90

Waiting to see what regulators say about the Kr/ACI merger. Kr made it clear they’ll fight in court to get it done. If it does go through it’s gonna be huge for investors. Definitely some moves to be made once approval is announced. I’ll explain what I mean if when it goes through.
https://archive.ph/44fuq
DWAC rise was Trump winning primaries there was short squeeze on that part. Short squeezes don't last long.
SAVE tricky one might be Microsoft / Activision thing all over again, could take lot of time. Think eventually they will be allowed to merge.
TLT drop = yields go higher
right now market is in will fed cut or not cut March and by how much 25bps or 50bps.
just keep in mind one good inflation report and pressure for fed to cut will grow like wildfire.
01-24-2024, 08:53 PM
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#4644
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I think NYCB might be an outlier, but perhaps they have more commercial exposure than I realize. But they got some awesome assets in a fire sale during the banking crisis last year. I think if I moved on them I’d buy WAL puts to try and balance my bank exposure. Sofi hasn’t looked great lately either is sorta painful. Payo too, but at least with their cash generation they are just continuing to buyback shares and will likely start paying a dividend assuming they don’t find something better to do with their cash pile.Here is good article about regional banks. (Seems like no go)
https://archive.ph/44fuq
DWAC rise was Trump winning primaries there was short squeeze on that part. Short squeezes don't last long.
SAVE tricky one might be Microsoft / Activision thing all over again, could take lot of time. Think eventually they will be allowed to merge.
TLT drop = yields go higher
right now market is in will fed cut or not cut March and by how much 25bps or 50bps.
just keep in mind one good inflation report and pressure for fed to cut will grow like wildfire.
https://archive.ph/44fuq
DWAC rise was Trump winning primaries there was short squeeze on that part. Short squeezes don't last long.
SAVE tricky one might be Microsoft / Activision thing all over again, could take lot of time. Think eventually they will be allowed to merge.
TLT drop = yields go higher
right now market is in will fed cut or not cut March and by how much 25bps or 50bps.
just keep in mind one good inflation report and pressure for fed to cut will grow like wildfire.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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01-24-2024, 09:40 PM
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#4645
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The problem to me with regional banks is that the whole sector could only really grow through acquisition in good times. Refinance is dead, mortgage lending is getting crushed, commercial real estate sucks, lending long sucks with an inverted yield curve. There is nothing coming in terms of growth.The dividends look nice if it was 2022 but 4 week T-bill auction tomorrow should be paying 5.27% or 5.28% annualized.
No growth, all risk, and dividends less than 4 week bills. The business is so undifferentiated. I will consider a short if we can move up more from here. Probably a short on KEY but just because I have followed that stock for a long time and think they are trash.
No growth, all risk, and dividends less than 4 week bills. The business is so undifferentiated. I will consider a short if we can move up more from here. Probably a short on KEY but just because I have followed that stock for a long time and think they are trash.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
hehe tymen.
Anyone have thoughts on the regional banks and their overall condition? Seems like everyone thinks their liquidity woes are gone and they'll all be fine again, but they still have a lot of the same risks they had previously at least as far as commercial property loan exposure. Savings accounts are still being drained by both consumers and a majority of businesses so their interest income isn't going up I imagine. Anyone think we see a small panic in the somewhat near future for banks like WAL or ZION again? NYCB seems primed to launch though fuark.
Anyone have thoughts on the regional banks and their overall condition? Seems like everyone thinks their liquidity woes are gone and they'll all be fine again, but they still have a lot of the same risks they had previously at least as far as commercial property loan exposure. Savings accounts are still being drained by both consumers and a majority of businesses so their interest income isn't going up I imagine. Anyone think we see a small panic in the somewhat near future for banks like WAL or ZION again? NYCB seems primed to launch though fuark.
01-25-2024, 06:10 AM
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#4646
- twovalvekid
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My angus is not peppered for TSLA opening today.
Already down 8% premarket.
Changing lambo.gif to pinto.gif
Already down 8% premarket.
Changing lambo.gif to pinto.gif
MFC
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RIP YGST
01-25-2024, 07:45 AM
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#4647
01-25-2024, 08:29 AM
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#4648
- dopamine72
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You boyos DCA on this TSLA dip?
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
01-25-2024, 08:32 AM
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#4649
- Destor
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Something that was only briefly mentioned on the Tesla call and that also impacts other reasonably-priced EVs including Rivians (not Lucid, too expensive): the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies that will likely be reducing next year and will offset rate cuts.
At the start of this year vehicles started losing the credit if they contain any battery components from foreign entities of concern, next year that expands to batteries containing any critical minerals from foreign entities of concern. Minerals will be a MUCH bigger hurdle than components, China and North Korea together have a near monopoly on stuff like battery-grade graphite and a range of other things.
I won't be shocked if zero vehicles qualify for the full $7500 next year, not too sure what's happening with subsidies in the EU or China but seems like risk to the downside
At the start of this year vehicles started losing the credit if they contain any battery components from foreign entities of concern, next year that expands to batteries containing any critical minerals from foreign entities of concern. Minerals will be a MUCH bigger hurdle than components, China and North Korea together have a near monopoly on stuff like battery-grade graphite and a range of other things.
I won't be shocked if zero vehicles qualify for the full $7500 next year, not too sure what's happening with subsidies in the EU or China but seems like risk to the downside
01-25-2024, 10:25 AM
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#4650
- 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Got an order in for $181.00 right now.You boyos DCA on this TSLA dip?
trainingwithryan.substack.com
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