Sold my $10k stock in Bird Construction, time to get rid of that

Averaged in more around there too, balls of steal bro nice work

Wouldn't surprise me if it dips more tomorrow so I saved some skrill for tomorrow to average in again

I probably should. Isn't Ford confirmed to start using superchargers? Supercharging network is likely expanding; I just haven't done all the research. That could be quite a bit of revenue.

Cyber truck reviews aren't great, but it seems to be a novelty type car and could still sell.

The semi I've heard has been delivered to some companies; I've seen some companies using them, so that could be ramping up as well.

To be honest, that's where I think Tesla and EV makes the most sense; short hauls; companies did the math and it made sense to them to buy. Hauling short haul freight could be a big opportunity for Tesla. And if rates decrease companies will be more likely to to afford the loans, if needed. My company can afford most things in cash so...just depends on the company. Construction companies I've worked for are decentralized by project, and often projects like power plants and interstate construction are buying dozens of pickups, but is the semi or cyber truck good enough for construction companies? They think Fords are...

Nothing too crazy this time. Just picked up some NVDA Feb 2nd calls shortly after the bell rang around the $613 mark, then watched it fall for a while, then it stormed right back up into the $617's and I sold. Quick $1.6k flip.



AMD's earnings report is today, and all the tech stocks NVDA INTC AMD started off in the red. INTC had a positive ER yesterday for their Q4 but a shockingly below-expectations guidance so it's freaking out the chip industry a bit.

Probably worth keeping an eye on NVDA/AMD throughout the day, especially for the final few hours.

I have no rush to sell, so I’m just viewing it as a sale. I’m looking at the 1yr chart and hoping for another rebound to the $240.00 range.

If it becomes a long term hold, that’s OK.

This upcoming week is gonna be something.

Market is expected to move huge. (across the board affecting everything)

Tuesday MSFT / GOOG / AMD

Wed FOMC / Treasury

Thursday Apple / Amazon / Meta

Friday Jobs data



Trade carefully nobody has clue which way this will go.



Oil is starting to make comeback.

Headlines simply can't be ignored those drone attacks finally starting to affect crude.

Evergrande finally down. Let’s see how markets take that lmao. How far down BABA drop in the morning?!

More like Everpetite

all things considered

China stock market is full on market crash over there / but no spill over in other markets

China stocks are below covid lows

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia...he-2024-01-23/

Looks like a selling opportunity in American markets.Looks like a buying opportunity in Chinese markets.

I’ve been saying it for days, China is imploding. I’m not interested in any chinese stocks.

Always been interested in your analysis of the market. How do you see this year playing out?

It's probably not wise to buy Chinese stocks unless you have boots on the ground there

Buying Chinese stocks is a risky trade just as buying puts on the S&P is a risky trade but given the absolute dog sht this forum sometimes promotes, I thought you guys might be interested lol, that was not meant to be offensive.

JD for example is currently at $23 but hit $20 last week, $20 is a unique price JD has hit only 3 other times(2014,2016,2018) and has made significant gains off that low(80%, 150%, 400%).

JD hit the 9(TD) on the monthly on the previous move from $20 and the 8 on the time before that. It is currently past the 9. It is is in a bullish falling wedge pattern and the RSI on the monthly is currently 35.

Every time JD has hit 35 RSI on the monthly it has marked a bottom(2018 400%, 2022 90%) and the lowest it has been is 35.26.

I'm not saying buy Chinese stocks and hold long term or buy puts on the S&P and hold long term but I'm saying there appears to be opportunity there.

That is not my whole thesis and I'm not even saying I'm right or that it's the right move, just that it is worth thinking about.

It’s not offensive and you certainly want to buy things when they’re beaten down, but it’s tough when you don’t have visibility into what’s actually happening on ground level in the country much less the company itself

The only way to know what’s really happening in China is to be in China, because a lot of stuff that comes out of China can’t be trusted

Honestly my biggest qualm is Chinese government doesn’t give a flying phuck about outsiders. I could easily see them screwing over outside investors if they could make mainland investors whole. If I was a Chinese investor I’d be averaging down hard and shifting the balance of my portfolio from US/euro/emerging markets back into Chinese market index although that doesn’t absolve you of the risks even then since their banking crisis is extensive and will be hard to hide when it is far reaching beyond what we saw in 2008.


If I wasn’t fairly deep in Sofi, Payo, and my fnma play I’d consider buying JD or some BABA but I like those better and understand those risks a little better.

Forecast for the S&P 500 this year? I saw you made a lot of good predictions last year so curious to hear your thoughts.

Whole year forecast is very difficult. I have hard time predicting 3 months ahead.

I make my trades now in quarter segments via swing trades using ES futures.

Was holding short position against SP 500 last week slowly building up for decent size and decided to exit because atm think I am wrong here.


Following reasons why I am wrong for this current cycle till mid March.


-earnings atm for bigger names that everyone seems to be perfectly long keep delivering .... money is flying via VC's etc into anything to do with AI like crazy atm. demand for hardware related stuff for LLM is off the charts.

-next inflation report is tracking now 2.9% ish and core month over month at 0.2% which will force fed to cut 25bps March (confirming what market sniffed out few months back)

-Treasury will slow down bond auctions it seems

-if you relieve the pressures on bond market than you will drop yields and make bonds attractive again think like TLT ZB etc. (this in turn helps companies that have high financing rates get relief for future debt payback)

-Jerome via last fomc was dovish and basically waved flag saying job is done. he might do the same song here Wednesday

-if Fed ends QT this March than rumors going around that QE will start again.



week ago I thought SP 500 would be at 4600 area for March

now it looks like SP 500 could end up 5100-5200.


still need to see what MSFT / Apple / GOOG / Amazon will say guidance wise this week.

today market jumped on idea that Treasury will slow down bond issuance.


as of this second I have no position in the market on swing trade basis.

flat.

just gonna wait to see where this sits Friday to decide on what to do next.









........................

I think considering the moon cycle phase market is having over AI and what they think it will be able to achieve this could be either in 5th or 6th inning before going to the other side.

This was the hype phase with electric cars. It was bombarded all over media for several years.

Impossible to fight.

If you want death wish don't try and stop in front of NVDA / MSFT etc.

Now money just keeps flowing into any startup that will do anything to do with LLM / ai stuff.

Chat GPT was launched only 13 months ago

Thanks for your thoughts. The 'reverse market crash' as some youtubers were calling it months back.

If you had a few hundred thousand to put into the market, what would you do from here on? 10-20k a month?

If I was being serious- put all of it into SGOV paying 5.3% interest monthly. Then slowly contribute into other things. I don’t have any suggestions equity wise, but you could start buying longer dated bonds such as TLT here below $95. I would probably buy an emerging market fund hopefully something with China exposure but idk if China is considered “emerging market” lmao but some sort of fund with international exposure would probably be solid. Otherwise SPY is always useful for an index fund.

“oMg gUYz tHe mArKeT mIgHt gO uP oR dOWn!”


Classic carbondumbass post lmfao

That is such difficult question to answer atm, due to high uncertainty with the market and particularly with bond market/fed.

In normal functioning market if you looked at 2 year / 5 year / 10 year / 30 year bond yields you would notice positive curve.

Meaning further out you go say 30 year you would have higher yield because you're exposed to more risk. With vice versa on shorter dated stuff.

Using this chart at bottom here.....


Fed interest rate from 2010 to 2015 being virtually zero.

30 year yields 3 %

10 year yields 1.7%

2 year yields 0.1 %

yoy inflation was running flat just under 2% everything great

than comes 2017 and inflation starts to run bit hotter

fed starts to increase interest rates up to 2.5% to remove money from system make financial conditions tighter etc...

30 year 3.4%
10 year 2.8%
2 year 2.8%

covid happens everything crashes

you drop it all to zero everything resets yada yada inflation go brrr / money printer brrrr (too much of this happened and you know)

so now as of today

fed fund rate 5.5 %

30 year 4.3 %

10 year 4.1 %

2 year 4.3 %

Lets simplify here... most important curve and most looked at curve is 10 year yield.

When you look at current 10 year yield its like looking at the fed fund rates for the next 10 years.

If the 10 year drops its means market expect the fed to lower interest rates in the future and if it goes up than you expect interest rates to stay in this range.


October 2023 when 10 year yields were closing in on 5% the market almost crashed and instead fed speakers and treasury came in and saved the day causing this massive market squeeze.

10 year yields fell off cliff down to 3.8%.....but what you notice again it came back.

So where do you go from here.

If the next inflation reports are good / Job numbers getting worse meaning tracking much lower you will expect yields to drop....Fed will do 25 bps cut in March....Than more cuts later in year bringing interest rates down to 3.5-4%.

So where is the problem than??? well the longer you keep high elevated fed fund rates the more difficult it becomes for mortgages / corporate borrowing ... basically financing stays elevated.

On the flip side if they lower too early well you have inflation problem again.








If you made it this far.


Dude I just wanted to put on short position for 3 months and make some extra cash lol.

It didn't work and now I have no reason atm to try buying here or shorting here cause we need this week to finish so we can get some hint what Fed/Treasury and big market caps have to say.

Talking about this type of stuff is far more interesting than whether stocks will go up or down on any given day, because nobody has any clue what stocks are gonna do

Thanks for replying. I agree the market is in a seriously weird spot right now.

If you were forced to guess, where do you see the market peaking in 2024, and the lowest you think it may drop to?

I'm going to say peaking 5200, dropping to 4400. Think AI is far too bubbly right now.

Thank you. Currently I've got it all in fixed income. Feeling like maybe I ought to have some funds/stocks though.

Is LCID squeezing or memeing right now?

This weekend will see what my next move is after fed/treasury / big earnings passes.


upside for 2024

5200-5400

downside

4300-4400

Its possible to hit both of these levels this year.



We just don't know where market is in the AI phase atm.

Is this is in greed? delusion? or still in enthusiasm





I read over SMCI (super micro computer earnings)https://ir.supermicro.com/financials...s/default.aspx

These guys are making money hand over fist atm on server racks.

Say demand is over the roof atm.

100%+ yoy revenue gains is absurd.

basically every company atm wants to convert into some LLM for their business.

covering into fed tmmrw.

if Jerome hints that cuts are sooner or something, someone that is short LCID doesn't want to get trucked tmmrw so just in case they cover short.

LCID and everything that is garbage gets relief bid because their financing cost and paying interest rates lowers, if fed does something.



everything is always down to interest rates.

Yeah Lucid looks like a bear trap, could be down 30% one day and up 30% the next

Auto industry likely isn’t getting a respite any time soon, question is where the company will be in 2+ years

I bought my first round of 475 SPY puts last Friday when the market hit 4900(I'm likely going to buy another round today and save at least one more barrel until after the fed meets), I think the market is going to roll down to 4400 or slightly below, move back up to 4500-4900 on bad economic data and rate cut optimism then I expect the fed to begin cutting, crash shortly after or before but it will be short as the fed has 8 rate cuts in the pipeline and then a new sustained bull market.

As to when the fed cuts, I tend to think before July but it could come as soon as March due to unforeseeable events.

You need high yields, bank trouble, high unemployment, negative GDP, collapse in inflation(<3%), ect



I also tend to think that the market will be rallying into the election but I think it needs to turn down first.