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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
01-30-2024, 09:56 AM
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#4681
The data that came out before the last fed meeting and before the next fed meeting suggest less rate cuts.
JPow ignored it at the last meeting, said "at or near" and then said he was going to cut 3 times not 2 lol.
I've been tracking JPow pretty good but he finally got me at that last meeting.
JPow ignored it at the last meeting, said "at or near" and then said he was going to cut 3 times not 2 lol.
I've been tracking JPow pretty good but he finally got me at that last meeting.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-30-2024, 10:00 AM
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#4682
China coming back online will help to move our inflation down as the fed cuts and the fed cuts will allow China to have consumers to sell their goods to.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-30-2024, 10:04 AM
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#4683
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I’m on board with june/July cuts. How far out are you buying puts?I bought my first round of 475 SPY puts last Friday when the market hit 4900(I'm likely going to buy another round today and save at least one more barrel until after the fed meets), I think the market is going to roll down to 4400 or slightly below, move back up to 4500-4900 on bad economic data and rate cut optimism then I expect the fed to begin cutting, crash shortly after or before but it will be short as the fed has 8 rate cuts in the pipeline and then a new sustained bull market.
As to when the fed cuts, I tend to think before July but it could come as soon as March due to unforeseeable events.
You need high yields, bank trouble, high unemployment, negative GDP, collapse in inflation(<3%), ect
As to when the fed cuts, I tend to think before July but it could come as soon as March due to unforeseeable events.
You need high yields, bank trouble, high unemployment, negative GDP, collapse in inflation(<3%), ect
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
01-30-2024, 10:15 AM
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#4684
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I think March and July are less likely than the months in the middle, my puts expire in March.I’m on board with june/July cuts. How far out are you buying puts?
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-30-2024, 11:42 AM
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#4685
- Carbonfibre
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Tmmrw is gonna be the most wild card day in market by long shot.
Its at this point gambling to take guess what they will do.
If the market was going to move south it should have started moving already before fed meeting. I chose sitting on hands due to flip coin moment tmmrw.
Other side of dovish fed and treasury puts this market over 5000 by end of day tmmrw.
why guess when cuts or no cuts
its calculated for you here and updated every few minutes
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
Its at this point gambling to take guess what they will do.
If the market was going to move south it should have started moving already before fed meeting. I chose sitting on hands due to flip coin moment tmmrw.
Other side of dovish fed and treasury puts this market over 5000 by end of day tmmrw.
why guess when cuts or no cuts
its calculated for you here and updated every few minutes
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
01-30-2024, 11:45 AM
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#4686
01-30-2024, 11:46 AM
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#4687
01-30-2024, 12:09 PM
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#4688
- Destor
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Canada will probably cut before the US, and I don't think Canada is gonna be cutting any time really soon or at a quick pace
Two rate cuts by June is likely too optimistic, those probabilities are gonna gradually walk up again
Two rate cuts by June is likely too optimistic, those probabilities are gonna gradually walk up again
01-30-2024, 12:42 PM
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#4689
- Carbonfibre
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yeah, Canada will just follow Fed.
this is great site if anyone wants to think bigger picture.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com...es-time-series
this is great site if anyone wants to think bigger picture.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com...es-time-series
01-30-2024, 01:04 PM
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#4690
01-30-2024, 01:24 PM
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#4691
- NestBrah
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Thanks for the response. I see something similar to you.I bought my first round of 475 SPY puts last Friday when the market hit 4900(I'm likely going to buy another round today and save at least one more barrel until after the fed meets), I think the market is going to roll down to 4400 or slightly below, move back up to 4500-4900 on bad economic data and rate cut optimism then I expect the fed to begin cutting, crash shortly after or before but it will be short as the fed has 8 rate cuts in the pipeline and then a new sustained bull market.
As to when the fed cuts, I tend to think before July but it could come as soon as March due to unforeseeable events.
You need high yields, bank trouble, high unemployment, negative GDP, collapse in inflation(<3%), ect
I also tend to think that the market will be rallying into the election but I think it needs to turn down first.
As to when the fed cuts, I tend to think before July but it could come as soon as March due to unforeseeable events.
You need high yields, bank trouble, high unemployment, negative GDP, collapse in inflation(<3%), ect
I also tend to think that the market will be rallying into the election but I think it needs to turn down first.
Only thing is that I'm not so sure it's going to crash on rate cuts. I know this is the historical norm, but I can't see why it should happen again. Especially if it's predicted.
The market of today seems very different to past markets (probably famous last words).
01-30-2024, 01:57 PM
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#4692
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I figured a single cut by June is where US is at, but i also thought one more hike before we paused. They shouldn’t remotely consider cutting before we we see worse unemployment and market drops.Canada will probably cut before the US, and I don't think Canada is gonna be cutting any time really soon or at a quick pace
Two rate cuts by June is likely too optimistic, those probabilities are gonna gradually walk up again
Two rate cuts by June is likely too optimistic, those probabilities are gonna gradually walk up again
Right now everyone is incredibly heavy on indexed equities because “nothing else is out there generating a return”. My parents are retired and have been for almost a year but that is exactly what their money manager who runs their 401k plan said. I would be curious to see what % of their retirement savings are invested in equity index vs bonds and see where it compares for retirement funds in the past.
I’ll ask my pops later in February after he talks to the guy again to see if they took advantage of bond drop to shift harder that direction. I’m guessing they probably did because the guy he goes to is pretty dam good at his job and their boutique was affiliated with the bank he worked at.
My point being I wonder if lots of retirees are still overly heavy on indexed funds and once volatility goes up and the risk is properly calculated if there won’t be heavy index selling on S&P 500, QQQ, and SP100. I’m assuming this would prevent yields from spiking too much as well.
@snarf nice Sofi buy. I covered my 1 $8 Sofi CSP and sold 4 June $12 CC for $0.63. I almost sold 6 March $10 for $55 but didn’t fill yesterday at the end of the day…. Dangit.
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01-30-2024, 03:26 PM
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#4693
- Destor
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
That all makes sense manI figured a single cut by June is where US is at, but i also thought one more hike before we paused. They shouldn’t remotely consider cutting before we we see worse unemployment and market drops.
Right now everyone is incredibly heavy on indexed equities because “nothing else is out there generating a return”. My parents are retired and have been for almost a year but that is exactly what their money manager who runs their 401k plan said. I would be curious to see what % of their retirement savings are invested in equity index vs bonds and see where it compares for retirement funds in the past.
I’ll ask my pops later in February after he talks to the guy again to see if they took advantage of bond drop to shift harder that direction. I’m guessing they probably did because the guy he goes to is pretty dam good at his job and their boutique was affiliated with the bank he worked at.
My point being I wonder if lots of retirees are still overly heavy on indexed funds and once volatility goes up and the risk is properly calculated if there won’t be heavy index selling on S&P 500, QQQ, and SP100. I’m assuming this would prevent yields from spiking too much as well.
@snarf nice Sofi buy. I covered my 1 $8 Sofi CSP and sold 4 June $12 CC for $0.63. I almost sold 6 March $10 for $55 but didn’t fill yesterday at the end of the day…. Dangit.
Right now everyone is incredibly heavy on indexed equities because “nothing else is out there generating a return”. My parents are retired and have been for almost a year but that is exactly what their money manager who runs their 401k plan said. I would be curious to see what % of their retirement savings are invested in equity index vs bonds and see where it compares for retirement funds in the past.
I’ll ask my pops later in February after he talks to the guy again to see if they took advantage of bond drop to shift harder that direction. I’m guessing they probably did because the guy he goes to is pretty dam good at his job and their boutique was affiliated with the bank he worked at.
My point being I wonder if lots of retirees are still overly heavy on indexed funds and once volatility goes up and the risk is properly calculated if there won’t be heavy index selling on S&P 500, QQQ, and SP100. I’m assuming this would prevent yields from spiking too much as well.
@snarf nice Sofi buy. I covered my 1 $8 Sofi CSP and sold 4 June $12 CC for $0.63. I almost sold 6 March $10 for $55 but didn’t fill yesterday at the end of the day…. Dangit.
Delaware court has voided Elon’s 2018 compensation plan lol fuark, is Elon about to drop way down the Forbes wealthiest people list?
01-30-2024, 03:40 PM
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#4694
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That brings Elon share count to 210 million or 12.8% of Tesla stock.
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
01-30-2024, 03:49 PM
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#4695
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Thoughts on Alphabet and Microsoft earnings? Think we're going to mid 5000s on S&P 500 this year?That brings Elon share count to 210 million or 12.8% of Tesla stock.
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
01-30-2024, 03:55 PM
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#4696
- Destor
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I dunno what the implications are with his shares pledged in that Twitter deal, could get ugly if the stock continues downThat brings Elon share count to 210 million or 12.8% of Tesla stock.
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
Should have big knock on his wealth if he just lost 304 million shares.
$55 billion lost on paper.
rich people problems
guess it was worth it buying twitter lol
01-30-2024, 04:18 PM
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#4697
- Carbonfibre
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Elon margin call is estimated at 80-90$ on Tesla.
Banks that helped him secure deal for twitter would own tesla basically lol.
Banks that helped him secure deal for twitter would own tesla basically lol.
01-30-2024, 05:58 PM
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#4698
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
How the absolute phuck can they just do that? A signed contract by both parties now being retroactively revoked 6 years later? Wtf? It is annoying because you know if he never managed to hit the stock targets(which at the time it was inconceivable he even would manage to get one tranche of the deal) they never would have said shyt. Did they cry to the bank as their shares went x20?Elon margin call is estimated at 80-90$ on Tesla.
Banks that helped him secure deal for twitter would own tesla basically lol.
Banks that helped him secure deal for twitter would own tesla basically lol.
Edit: that said, if that does in fact happen it should boost share price right? That’s like 10% of shares disappearing lmao
I phucking hate the governments grubby fingers in every phucking pie getting in the way of everyone’s business. BRB No deal on SAVE/JetBlue even though SAVE is crumpling and ready go go chapter 11, BRB can’t decide if they’ll let the Kr/ACI deal go through even though it’s been nearly 1.5 years, BRB FNMA never getting out of their “temporary” conservatorship 15 years later.
Fitness connoisseur
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01-30-2024, 06:21 PM
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#4699
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
What do you mean?How the absolute phuck can they just do that? A signed contract by both parties now being retroactively revoked 6 years later? Wtf? It is annoying because you know if he never managed to hit the stock targets(which at the time it was inconceivable he even would manage to get one tranche of the deal) they never would have said shyt. Did they cry to the bank as their shares went x20?
Edit: that said, if that does in fact happen it should boost share price right? That’s like 10% of shares disappearing lmao
I phucking hate the governments grubby fingers in every phucking pie getting in the way of everyone’s business. BRB No deal on SAVE/JetBlue even though SAVE is crumpling and ready go go chapter 11, BRB can’t decide if they’ll let the Kr/ACI deal go through even though it’s been nearly 1.5 years, BRB FNMA never getting out of their “temporary” conservatorship 15 years later.
Edit: that said, if that does in fact happen it should boost share price right? That’s like 10% of shares disappearing lmao
I phucking hate the governments grubby fingers in every phucking pie getting in the way of everyone’s business. BRB No deal on SAVE/JetBlue even though SAVE is crumpling and ready go go chapter 11, BRB can’t decide if they’ll let the Kr/ACI deal go through even though it’s been nearly 1.5 years, BRB FNMA never getting out of their “temporary” conservatorship 15 years later.
When he bought twitter he didn't have the cash to buy it fully.
So he used margin loan via Tesla shares as collateral. It was like $15B or something like that.
Think it was deal with Morgan Stanley / BAC / Barclays and some other banks.
Twitter is not even worth $10B now after Elon took over because advertisement has dried up completely. So everyone is currently eating red that helped him secure Twitter.
The answer to everything is he can sell more Tesla shares.
Btw there is nothing wrong here, ie if he spins off SpaceX or Starlink IPO those banks can have first go at that space.
Also his compensation package with Tesla was one of the highest in history....the one that judge just blocked.
Like 55 billion dollars worth absurd amount.
Elon bottom line is never hurt here cause he has 2 more levers left.
Spin off Space X and spin off Starlink.
His net worth drops to $120 billion does it really matter? After today
Also if Tesla dropped to $80 or something like that....all his would do if he had margin call would be sell more shares. Not a problem for him.
01-30-2024, 06:38 PM
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#4700
- Destor
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People are talking about Tesla coming out with a new updated compensation plan but I don’t think they’re considering the disparity in value now compared to 2018 and what that would mean for Tesla’s books, unless the share price comes way down again
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
01-30-2024, 07:15 PM
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#4701
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Ahh I didn’t see that he’s never been granted the shares as the lawsuit unfolded. Nevermind I thought it was a case where he was granted his package and 6 years later they are taking it back. Regardless I am feeling quite anti-government and in regard to how the government is treating companies it feels like they are flexing their muscles just to validate their bloated existence. Our government employs far too many people.People are talking about Tesla coming out with a new updated compensation plan but I don’t think they’re considering the disparity in value now compared to 2018 and what that would mean for Tesla’s books, unless the share price comes way down again
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
01-30-2024, 07:49 PM
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#4702
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
So little bit of digging.People are talking about Tesla coming out with a new updated compensation plan but I don’t think they’re considering the disparity in value now compared to 2018 and what that would mean for Tesla’s books, unless the share price comes way down again
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
The previous plan was a $2.6b hit to Tesla’s books from the numbers I’m seeing, 10% of Tesla today is $60billion.
2018 when the compensation package was created for Elon, the board was not negotiating with Musk independently.
So shareholders were mislead.
Elon goal to unlock more compensation was to hit tesla stock price as high possible to unlock tranches of shares.
So since 2018 might explain why Musk, kept making absurd promises.
-full self driving in 1 year (that fake staged video)
-robotaxis in 3 years.....tesla would make you money while you work lolz
-cybertruck
-model 2
-semi
This is the same court that forced him to buy Twitter.
Delaware judge be like go **** yourself.
"With a $55.8 billion maximum value and $2.6 billion grant date fair value, the plan is the largest potential compensation opportunity ever observed in public markets by multiple orders of magnitude—250 times larger than the contemporaneous median peer compensation plan and over 33 times larger than the plan’s closest comparison, which was Musk’s prior compensation plan."
full document
https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions...aspx?id=359340
01-30-2024, 07:58 PM
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#4703
- dopamine72
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
lol amenHow the absolute phuck can they just do that? A signed contract by both parties now being retroactively revoked 6 years later? Wtf? It is annoying because you know if he never managed to hit the stock targets(which at the time it was inconceivable he even would manage to get one tranche of the deal) they never would have said shyt. Did they cry to the bank as their shares went x20?
Edit: that said, if that does in fact happen it should boost share price right? That’s like 10% of shares disappearing lmao
I phucking hate the governments grubby fingers in every phucking pie getting in the way of everyone’s business. BRB No deal on SAVE/JetBlue even though SAVE is crumpling and ready go go chapter 11, BRB can’t decide if they’ll let the Kr/ACI deal go through even though it’s been nearly 1.5 years, BRB FNMA never getting out of their “temporary” conservatorship 15 years later.
Edit: that said, if that does in fact happen it should boost share price right? That’s like 10% of shares disappearing lmao
I phucking hate the governments grubby fingers in every phucking pie getting in the way of everyone’s business. BRB No deal on SAVE/JetBlue even though SAVE is crumpling and ready go go chapter 11, BRB can’t decide if they’ll let the Kr/ACI deal go through even though it’s been nearly 1.5 years, BRB FNMA never getting out of their “temporary” conservatorship 15 years later.
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
01-31-2024, 08:51 AM
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#4704
- RobParks2M
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Lol NYCB got absolutely dumpstered. I sure know how to pick ‘em. Also a sign of things to come for regional banks overloaded with office loans. They had just TWO loans go bad and they lost almost 200 million. What happens if a bunch more go the same way?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
01-31-2024, 10:05 AM
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#4705
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Reopened 2 Sofi $8 CSP for $65.
BTC my June CCs at nearly 50% profit. Will re-enter when sofi recovers a bit. No idea how they managed to cough up all their earnings gains 2 days later lmfao. I’m not worried I still like the play and their forecast looks good and they’ve been forecasting conservatively seeing as they’ve beat expectations since they went public. I think there are some regional bank jitters and I’m about to check what deep OTM Puts are going for on WAL. I might enter those and perhaps NVDIA or QQQ deep otm monthlies to catch a panic drop.
BTC my June CCs at nearly 50% profit. Will re-enter when sofi recovers a bit. No idea how they managed to cough up all their earnings gains 2 days later lmfao. I’m not worried I still like the play and their forecast looks good and they’ve been forecasting conservatively seeing as they’ve beat expectations since they went public. I think there are some regional bank jitters and I’m about to check what deep OTM Puts are going for on WAL. I might enter those and perhaps NVDIA or QQQ deep otm monthlies to catch a panic drop.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
01-31-2024, 10:08 AM
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#4706
- Carbonfibre
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don't think Fed cares for NYCB or any of the regional banks that do stupid shiiit at this point. they had year to dip into emergency fed facility to fix their crap.
today is all about the magic words from Jerome press conference.
"it will be appropriate to start rate cuts next meeting........"
market will love that
today is all about the magic words from Jerome press conference.
"it will be appropriate to start rate cuts next meeting........"
market will love that
01-31-2024, 10:31 AM
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#4707
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I don’t think fed cares, but I think regional bank panic might start to set in if he says no cuts needed yet but will reassess with further data. Wal is at $66 with a 52w low of $8 if panic starts setting in that office defaults are forcing banks to foreclose they are going to take 25-50% losses on offices they try to sell. Office space got bid up bigly and banks are the ones who inevitably get stuck holding the bag. I’ll try and make some time tonight to dig into the hard numbers I haven’t looked at anything other than superficial numbers from any of the banks at this point. I bought 10 WAL $45p for $330 total for March. Cheap insurance for the moment. I’ll look to go longer dated pending what I see after actually digging through financials.don't think Fed cares for NYCB or any of the regional banks that do stupid shiiit at this point. they had year to dip into emergency fed facility to fix their crap.
today is all about the magic words from Jerome press conference.
"it will be appropriate to start rate cuts next meeting........"
market will love that
today is all about the magic words from Jerome press conference.
"it will be appropriate to start rate cuts next meeting........"
market will love that
There is HUGE pressure to make housing more affordable though. Warren got in on it just recently too. When these idiots realize pushing FNMA/FMCC back to public market ending the conservatorship interest rates on loans will likely drop an additional 1% they will be clamoring to get it done and take credit for the steps they’ve taken to insulate the government from losses AND lowering cost of home ownership. Still think this will be a huge play with big rewards over the next couple years. It is partially a trump trade because he has announced it a couple times he thinks it is a travesty they are still held by the government. I think Biden takes major steps toward release before his term is even over though. If trump handles the release the gains are probably gonna be fukkin nuts. I’d bet terms would be insane for shareholders.
We will see I suppose! Markets are always more fun when there is volatility
Edit: looked at preferred shares because I tend to think smart money is there and they’ve been getting hammered worse than common shares for banks. Food for thought.
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01-31-2024, 10:53 AM
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#4708
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I think Destor is right(a lot) and when those expectations walk up the market should walk down.I figured a single cut by June is where US is at, but i also thought one more hike before we paused. They shouldn’t remotely consider cutting before we we see worse unemployment and market drops.
The rate cut cant come before the market corrects and then picks back up.
It's not likely to go down to >4400 then back up to 4600< by March.
A March cut would suggest that the market is not going to correct but will crash right through support but if that's what we are doing, I can adapt, lol.
Given the economic data that has come out there is little reason to believe rate cuts begin in March, GDP is high as hell, inflation is high as hell, rent is high as hell.
Why would the fed cut when the economy is (apparently)strong and GDP is high when that risk letting inflation, which has been stagnant, run up again.
I guess it would be hard to see coming lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-31-2024, 11:02 AM
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#4709
The VIX has been in an uptrend since 12-14-23, the 10yr has been in an uptrend since 12-27-23 and the DXY has been in an uptrend since 12-28-23.
BTC hit a top on 01-11-24.
The S&P does not care lol.
BTC hit a top on 01-11-24.
The S&P does not care lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-31-2024, 12:59 PM
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#4710
- dopamine72
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- dopamine72
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What you boyos think about NFLX 600C exp 2-9-24?
Kinda tempted
Kinda tempted
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