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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
01-31-2024, 01:09 PM
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#4711
Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Based on the quick look I just took it looks like it can go above $600, I'm going to take a better look at it, gl.What you boyos think about NFLX 600C exp 2-9-24?
Kinda tempted
Kinda tempted
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01-31-2024, 02:32 PM
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#4712
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I checked on my brokerage and at that strike There is low liquidity being that it is that far out of the money. There might not be any bids so the price shown could be the ask not the target price.Got a question regarding options.
I have $12 CSP for ZIM this week, and $16 CC as well. I notice that the IV for the CSP has ramped up considerably, while the CC IV has barely moved. Is this typically an indication of market sentiment regarding the direction of the upcoming move (based on news this week)?
It is particularly odd because yesterday I closed the CSP for $.01 when the stock was trading at $14.50 or so. Now the stock is trading at $15.50 and the CSP price is $.09.
I have $12 CSP for ZIM this week, and $16 CC as well. I notice that the IV for the CSP has ramped up considerably, while the CC IV has barely moved. Is this typically an indication of market sentiment regarding the direction of the upcoming move (based on news this week)?
It is particularly odd because yesterday I closed the CSP for $.01 when the stock was trading at $14.50 or so. Now the stock is trading at $15.50 and the CSP price is $.09.
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01-31-2024, 03:04 PM
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#4713
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someone lifted the Zim wings on the vol puts. Legit means nothing because they are so far OTM.
that would be bank or some market maker balancing his book.
if you buy closer to ATM the volatility will be lower and there is nothing to read there.
..............................
Jerome helped sellers today.
Threw out March rate cut out.
Market threw bit of fit.
You need tmmrw continued sell
So far sellers have upper hand.
NFP job numbers Friday. You want to see higher number there so market keeps moving lower.
It was strange day.
After NYCB earnings this morning.
10 year yields moved.
Than Jerome said **** your cuts for March.
Yields rebounded.
So basically NYCB will be closed and dissolved by Friday at this rate.
that would be bank or some market maker balancing his book.
if you buy closer to ATM the volatility will be lower and there is nothing to read there.
..............................
Jerome helped sellers today.
Threw out March rate cut out.
Market threw bit of fit.
You need tmmrw continued sell
So far sellers have upper hand.
NFP job numbers Friday. You want to see higher number there so market keeps moving lower.
It was strange day.
After NYCB earnings this morning.
10 year yields moved.
Than Jerome said **** your cuts for March.
Yields rebounded.
So basically NYCB will be closed and dissolved by Friday at this rate.
01-31-2024, 04:16 PM
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#4714
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I’d laugh hard as fuk if another regional bank goes under in the next month. I ended up with 20 wal putssomeone lifted the Zim wings on the vol puts. Legit means nothing because they are so far OTM.
that would be bank or some market maker balancing his book.
if you buy closer to ATM the volatility will be lower and there is nothing to read there.
..............................
Jerome helped sellers today.
Threw out March rate cut out.
Market threw bit of fit.
You need tmmrw continued sell
So far sellers have upper hand.
NFP job numbers Friday. You want to see higher number there so market keeps moving lower.
It was strange day.
After NYCB earnings this morning.
10 year yields moved.
Than Jerome said **** your cuts for March.
Yields rebounded.
So basically NYCB will be closed and dissolved by Friday at this rate.
that would be bank or some market maker balancing his book.
if you buy closer to ATM the volatility will be lower and there is nothing to read there.
..............................
Jerome helped sellers today.
Threw out March rate cut out.
Market threw bit of fit.
You need tmmrw continued sell
So far sellers have upper hand.
NFP job numbers Friday. You want to see higher number there so market keeps moving lower.
It was strange day.
After NYCB earnings this morning.
10 year yields moved.
Than Jerome said **** your cuts for March.
Yields rebounded.
So basically NYCB will be closed and dissolved by Friday at this rate.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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01-31-2024, 04:45 PM
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#4715
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
NYCB is nothing bank size wise.I’d laugh hard as fuk if another regional bank goes under in the next month. I ended up with 20 wal puts
Someone can swallow it up easily.
01-31-2024, 05:13 PM
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#4716
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
You think? Market cap is 4.5B but they’ve got $125B in assets and I’m guessing most are underwaterNYCB is nothing bank size wise.
Someone can swallow it up easily.
Someone can swallow it up easily.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
01-31-2024, 05:15 PM
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#4717
Before people go all in on puts, sellers are not officially in control yet and there is still at least one catalyst for cuts that has a significant but less than 50% chance of occurring before March, March is not even officially off the table so it's certainly not out the window lol.
It pays to be temperate.
Don't play yourself.
It pays to be temperate.
Don't play yourself.
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
That is something to consider, you don't want to be married to an outlook or position.Thanks for the response. I see something similar to you.
Only thing is that I'm not so sure it's going to crash on rate cuts. I know this is the historical norm, but I can't see why it should happen again. Especially if it's predicted.
The market of today seems very different to past markets (probably famous last words).
Only thing is that I'm not so sure it's going to crash on rate cuts. I know this is the historical norm, but I can't see why it should happen again. Especially if it's predicted.
The market of today seems very different to past markets (probably famous last words).
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
01-31-2024, 06:45 PM
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#4718
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
My position is quite small and the 2nd set of 10 don’t expire till June. I paid close to $30 each for all and it’s a small fraction of my portfolio which is heavy on financial tech so just helps cushion any drops there.Before people go all in on puts, sellers are not officially in control yet and there is still at least one catalyst for cuts that has a significant but less than 50% chance of occurring before March, March is not even officially off the table so it's certainly not out the window lol.
It pays to be temperate.
Don't play yourself.
That is something to consider, you don't want to be married to an outlook or position.
It pays to be temperate.
Don't play yourself.
That is something to consider, you don't want to be married to an outlook or position.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
01-31-2024, 08:34 PM
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#4719
02-01-2024, 07:59 AM
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#4720
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Welp sold my March $45p on Wal for $75 from $33 that I bought lmao. Still holding June 30p I think I paid $30 or $35 for those too.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
02-01-2024, 08:59 AM
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#4721
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
its gone.You think? Market cap is 4.5B but they’ve got $125B in assets and I’m guessing most are underwater
that bank is run by idiots clearly
they took on more assets after buying signature
but than they forgot you need to set aside more money for credit losses
https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...ss-2024-01-31/
KRE is bloodbath today
02-01-2024, 09:11 AM
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#4722
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I fukt up ayy lmaoWelp sold my March $45p on Wal for $75 from $33 that I bought lmao. Still holding June 30p I think I paid $30 or $35 for those too.
Edit: swapped into TLT March $97 puts. Why tf are rates dropping. Yields should rise in the next couple weeks especially if banks are trying to unload “assets”
Fitness connoisseur
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02-01-2024, 02:24 PM
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#4723
02-01-2024, 02:55 PM
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#4724
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Oh lawd they sure did.Meta went vertical
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02-01-2024, 02:56 PM
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#4725
02-01-2024, 03:33 PM
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#4726
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Originally Posted By mikebadg3⏩
If I am not mistaken I think spy options you can buy/sell after hours depending on your broker.Purchased 3 2/9 SPY calls strike $490 @ 1.60 per
Sat on it and its at 4.0. SPY rising after hours .. ..
Probably sell at market open .
Sat on it and its at 4.0. SPY rising after hours .. ..
Probably sell at market open .
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
02-01-2024, 03:52 PM
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#4727
- dopamine72
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
What you boyos think about NFLX 600C exp 2-9-24?
Kinda tempted
Kinda tempted
Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
1 contract was $200 yesterdayBased on the quick look I just took it looks like it can go above $600, I'm going to take a better look at it, gl.
Today its $1,055
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
02-01-2024, 04:14 PM
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#4728
02-01-2024, 06:11 PM
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#4729
- Carbonfibre
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Brutal
one day sell turned into trap for continuation high
amazon earnings were insane....amazon makes like $2.5B per day revenue
meta earnings were fairly good but doing $50B buyback and dividend was enough to rocket the stock
apple china sales suck like real bad
one day sell turned into trap for continuation high
amazon earnings were insane....amazon makes like $2.5B per day revenue
meta earnings were fairly good but doing $50B buyback and dividend was enough to rocket the stock
apple china sales suck like real bad
02-01-2024, 06:25 PM
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#4730
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Lulz. All things good for my TLT puts. No way yields hold up when we can all worship the mighty FANG!Brutal
one day sell turned into trap for continuation lower
amazon earnings were insane....amazon makes like $2.5B per day revenue
meta earnings were fairly good but doing $50B buyback and dividend was enough to rocket the stock
apple china sales suck like real bad
one day sell turned into trap for continuation lower
amazon earnings were insane....amazon makes like $2.5B per day revenue
meta earnings were fairly good but doing $50B buyback and dividend was enough to rocket the stock
apple china sales suck like real bad
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
02-01-2024, 06:49 PM
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#4731
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
When Jerome finished talking yesterday market had no rate cut in March.Lulz. All things good for my TLT puts. No way yields hold up when we can all worship the mighty FANG!
After today action March rate cut 25BPS is now 70% vs yesterday 30%.
They have Jpow by the balls.
10 year dove hard today and hence TLT go up.
MAG 5 companies are printing boatload of money. Msft / nvda / amazon / goog / meta don't even know what to do with their money.
Phucking amazon made $23B of net cash flow in 3 months. They made last year $75B of free cash flow to do **** all with.
02-01-2024, 08:08 PM
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#4732
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
That move was overblown 100%. Yields gotta pop in the next couple weeks I think. I’m gonna sit on my puts till next week I think.When Jerome finished talking yesterday market had no rate cut in March.
After today action March rate cut 25BPS is now 70% vs yesterday 30%.
They have Jpow by the balls.
10 year dove hard today and hence TLT go up.
MAG 5 companies are printing boatload of money. Msft / nvda / amazon / goog / meta don't even know what to do with their money.
Phucking amazon made $23B of net cash flow in 3 months. They made last year $75B of free cash flow to do **** all with.
After today action March rate cut 25BPS is now 70% vs yesterday 30%.
They have Jpow by the balls.
10 year dove hard today and hence TLT go up.
MAG 5 companies are printing boatload of money. Msft / nvda / amazon / goog / meta don't even know what to do with their money.
Phucking amazon made $23B of net cash flow in 3 months. They made last year $75B of free cash flow to do **** all with.
It’s annoying watching big tech become monopolies but JetBlue and spirit being 9% of market is too much lul
Fitness connoisseur
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02-01-2024, 09:41 PM
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#4733
02-02-2024, 07:15 AM
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#4734
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Ayyy lmao #yieldsupNone of this seems to suggest rates need to come down does it, things are going just fine
Edit: decided I’m not holding till next week. Sold my 4 puts at $2.20 that were acquired at $1.4 I bet tlt keeps going down in the next week or 2 but I think the loss of time on the options would negate any meaningful movement.
Fitness connoisseur
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02-02-2024, 07:46 AM
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#4735
02-02-2024, 08:02 AM
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#4736
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
The bond market is funny af, but not ha-ha funnyAyyy lmao #yieldsup
Edit: decided I’m not holding till next week. Sold my 4 puts at $2.20 that were acquired at $1.4 I bet tlt keeps going down in the next week or 2 but I think the loss of time on the options would negate any meaningful movement.
Edit: decided I’m not holding till next week. Sold my 4 puts at $2.20 that were acquired at $1.4 I bet tlt keeps going down in the next week or 2 but I think the loss of time on the options would negate any meaningful movement.
At least stock prices are predicated on earnings that have some quantifiable basis in reality, these interest rate probabilities are simply the market desperately hoping rates will come down until the moment it’s undeniable they won’t.
02-02-2024, 08:54 AM
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#4737
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The problem with this market is that 5-6 stocks are carrying the whole market up, making it very deceiving that everyone is swimming in money.
People that invest in small caps or have wider range portfolio in many sectors are raging and selling that to allocate to msft / nvda / amzn / meta etc.
So yes it may seem under the surface why would you cut rates by 25BPS.
But think about the traditional portfolio 60/40 that invest safer. They didn't see all this wealth in AI crazy so now they are force chasing it, which is slowly building to over crowding.
So far there is no sign yet that something is broken or close to exploding. It does seem like this can't go on forever.
You can't tell me with straight face that investor is going its okay I will take my 5% dividend on some random stock.
While they watch Meta that is up 450% since 2023.
People that invest in small caps or have wider range portfolio in many sectors are raging and selling that to allocate to msft / nvda / amzn / meta etc.
So yes it may seem under the surface why would you cut rates by 25BPS.
But think about the traditional portfolio 60/40 that invest safer. They didn't see all this wealth in AI crazy so now they are force chasing it, which is slowly building to over crowding.
So far there is no sign yet that something is broken or close to exploding. It does seem like this can't go on forever.
You can't tell me with straight face that investor is going its okay I will take my 5% dividend on some random stock.
While they watch Meta that is up 450% since 2023.
02-02-2024, 09:14 AM
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#4738
- SipNPiz
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I hate meta as much the next brah but damn if we all bet $1k on super otm calls we’d have brand new C8 corvettes for the price of a cell phone
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
02-02-2024, 09:15 AM
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#4739
- Destor
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People should buy what they understand deeply at valuations that makes sense to them, if that's Meta then that's what they should buy
Chasing things not understood is where the problems tend to emerge I think, as is the idea that you need to swing at every pitch. Absent deep understanding of investable things, people are probably better off buying indices
Chasing things not understood is where the problems tend to emerge I think, as is the idea that you need to swing at every pitch. Absent deep understanding of investable things, people are probably better off buying indices
02-02-2024, 12:43 PM
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#4740
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
^this is exactly what happened with spacs.People should buy what they understand deeply at valuations that makes sense to them, if that's Meta then that's what they should buy
Chasing things not understood is where the problems tend to emerge I think, as is the idea that you need to swing at every pitch. Absent deep understanding of investable things, people are probably better off buying indices
Chasing things not understood is where the problems tend to emerge I think, as is the idea that you need to swing at every pitch. Absent deep understanding of investable things, people are probably better off buying indices
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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