My unrealized losses since the 2021 "crash" have reduced from $55k to $29k. Feelsgoodman.jpg

My brother in christ....you haven't even broken even yet?

No longer playing with house money so I can't make outrageous bets. Had to be careful. I'll probably break even next year.

Ayy lmao

dafuk I thought everyone got wrekt in 2021?

Cardano fooked me in 2021

most people who were holding big names/leaders in their sector or QQQ or SPY recovered a long time ago and that's why slow and boring wins the race

probably most people who picked small caps or small cap index are just breaking even now.

I just figured some miscers were holding stonks that got killed too. Lesson learned anyways, I don't open new positions besides indexes anymore, and generally only STO options

Lmao tug I got buried too, but averaged down hard and got lucky on a few warrant plays and the Lucid play all saved me. That and Fannie Mae which cleaned up my slate last year and made me pay taxes on my investment account for the first time since 2021. Holding some “losses” I’ll clear when I sell/rebuy Payo/sofi this coming November/January. If things stay flat or continue as is I’ll be paying taxes again though. I’ll look tonight what I’ve got for gains on my sofi/td/Schwab account for this year. I think it’s close to 20 racks at this point.

Wrekt dosent even describe what happened to me with PLTR,looking back tho, those are the times that turn you into a real man and a real investor if you held through it

watching some prop desk traders looking for a short repeatedly this morning lol they’re trying to force the short, just because it did so yesterday, these people get paid? Lol they already got stopped out of several positions.

Bearporn always lose.

They is cut.

I tol ya

They no choice.

Lol at declaring victory here.

I was hoping that this forum would be smarter than the average person and it seems most of us are lol.

This was a lose/lose situation for bulls, it doesn't matter what JPow says because if he says cuts in September then the market will falter and if he says no cuts in September then the market will falter lol, he either gives the market what it wants(cuts) then the dollar drops and the yen rises or he doesn't give the market what it wants. If you give them what they want then the carry trade gets worse and if you don't give them what they want then they throw a fit lol. Since the fed has basically announced cuts, the things to look for that could move us down would be the yen, a .50bps cut in September or data that causes the fed to change their mind on a September cut altogether.I'm always happy to see someone take profits <3 especially with so much uncertainty

Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?



Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.



In our 2024 Global Outlook we warned about the risk posed by an unwinding of the yen carry trade (borrowing at zero or very low interest rates in Japan and investing the proceeds in assets with higher expected returns) that shook global markets last week:

"Decades of current account surpluses have accumulated, giving Japan the world's largest net international investment position (even more than China) with $3.3 trillion of investments held abroad according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although the U.S. has the largest economic influence in the world, Japan may have the largest influence in the asset markets due to these account surpluses. Should the BOJ begin to substantially tighten monetary policy next year, as signaled by the end of yield curve control at the BOJ's meeting in October, the potential for a reversal of decades of outward flow of capital may be felt by investors worldwide."




– 2024 Global Outlook: The Big Picture published December 4, 2023



The yen rose 14% against the dollar in less than a month (July 10 to August 5) causing assets to decline in value against yen-denominated borrowing used to fund those purchases, forcing some investors to unwind their trades. The dramatic moves in markets globally on August 5 indicates this likelihood of forced selling, similar to a broad-based margin call. A combination of things likely fueled the recent move in the yen. On July 31, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) surprised with a bigger than expected rate hike and committed to further rate hikes along with faster than expected quantitative tightening (reducing the assets on their balance sheet purchased during a more than decade-long period of quantitative easing). Additionally, worsening U.S. economic data and some disappointing updates from some mega cap tech companies weighed on the dollar and stocks generally.

Going long on tech and short on the yen have been two very popular trades in recent years. It has been possible to borrow at the cheapest interest rate in yen, meaning the yen has been the cheapest major funding currency. Since tech has tended to be consistently profitable, it's not hard to imagine a good portion of the short yen trade flow has gone into U.S. tech. The chart below of the similar movement in the dollar-yen exchange rate and the tech-heavy Nasdaq highlights the likelihood of carry trades funding investments in tech, but the trade likely funded buying in other markets as well.


Carry trade: long tech and short yen



Short-term unwind

To look at the size of a potential for a short-term reversal, we can examine yen contracts tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. On July 2, speculative investors, like hedge funds, were holding a net 190,000 contracts betting on a weaker yen (worth about $15.6 billion). By July 31, the day of the BoJ meeting, those positions were halved and were nearly back to the flat line by Tuesday, August 6th. While positioning could further unwind and perhaps even turn long, we feel that most of the extreme short position is unwound.


Nearly all of the net short positions in yen contracts have unwound



Medium-term unwind

A proxy for the medium-term carry trade magnitude is to look at Japanese banks' foreign lending in yen. This type of lending is often to non-banks, like asset managers, and has been on the rise since 2010. Foreign lending in yen accelerated in the last couple of years as rates rose outside Japan, while Japanese rates remained very low. According to the data released by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the loans totaled $1 trillion (145 trillion yen) as of March 2024. Unlike investors in futures that are subject to margin calls that can force urgent selling, asset managers may look to reduce any carry trades and pay back yen loans over the medium-term, dependent upon their outlook for currency and rate moves. This means an unwind of this exposure could unfold over the coming months.


Borrowing in yen has grown to $1 trillion ($145 trillion yen)



Long-term unwind

For the longer-term carry trade size, we look to Japan's long-term net investment position. Japanese investors are the biggest non-U.S. investors in U.S. Treasuries and among the top five in ownership of non-Japanese stocks. According to the International Monetary Fund, decades of current account surpluses have accumulated, giving Japan the world's largest net international investment position (even more than China) with $3.3 trillion of investments held abroad as of March 31, 2024. The BOJ's current hawkish bias offers the potential for a reversal of more than a decade of outward flow of capital to be felt by investors worldwide. It is unlikely all the outbound investment from Japan will reverse given the scope of investment opportunities outside of Japan (and the investment policy of Japan's government-run pension fund which allocates 50% of the $1.6 trillion fund to foreign stocks and bonds). Yet, it may not be a one-way flow anymore with some capital repatriated to Japan over the coming quarters.


Japan has the largest net-positive international investment position



What else could end the unwind?

It has been suggested through various media outlets that perhaps the Federal Reserve will step in with an emergency rate cut prior to their scheduled September rate decision. Although softer economic and employment data may prompt the Fed to join other central banks in cutting interest rates, such a move is unlikely to halt the unwinding. An emergency cut by the Fed would tend to strengthen the yen against the dollar exacerbating the carry trade unwind, and not alleviate it.

Intervention by Japanese officials to limit the rise in the yen is another possibly. However, prior government interventions to limit currency moves have tended to be largely ineffective towards changing the yen's trajectory, only slowing the trend. The BOJ Deputy Governor suggested further moves in interest rates would take financial market volatility into consideration, which may have slowed the unwind in the near term.

A return to strong tech stock leadership could reinvigorate the carry trade. But, there are plenty of issues weighing on the sector which are likely to maintain volatility: underwhelming earnings outlooks from leaders like Alphabet and Tesla, the halving of Warren Buffett's stake in Apple, recent economic data—including the U.S. labor report—missing expectations, heightened global election uncertainty, and geopolitical conflict.



Safe haven?

The global stock market sell-off of August 5 saw a turnaround the next day with when markets rebounded. The bad news? The stock market recovery doesn't guarantee the risk has been eliminated. We believe that the most dramatic moves tied to the unwinding of the short-term yen trade may have passed but we will continue to track the data. For over a decade money was cheaply borrowed in yen and may have been invested in risky assets like U.S. tech stocks. Ultimately, we have no way of knowing how long or how far the drag on stocks and currencies from the 2024 carry trade unwind could go over the medium- or longer-term.

In our opinion, stock markets less exposed to tech, the dollar, and the yen, along with those that have stable economic backdrops and below-average valuations, seem the most likely to be better able to withstand any further unwinding of the yen carry trade. Europe's stock market fared much better than those of the U.S. or Japan on Monday August 5th, possibly for those reasons. The market's panicky moves offer a reminder about how portfolio diversification and a review of risk-exposures is prudent.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-trade-blow-up

Risk/reward doesn't feel great right now.

The Fed cutting was very likely but what is likely overoptimistic is the pace of cuts going forward, the market at this same time next year is pricing in like 1% more rate reduction than the Fed had in its latest dot plot. And it’s not gonna be a 0.50% cut in Sept.

MNTS got a NASA contract today and went up 198% today fuuuuark

Man everyone I know is saying we will get a rally to the end of the year

Generally that's a bad thing lol.

I mentioned a few reasons to be bearish earlier but there are a few more.

The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a 1.00-1.25 cut by the end of the year, this is probably overly optimistic, if JPow gives anything less then the markets will throw a fit and you basically guarantee the recession with high unemployment. The market may also not like JPow's rapid flip from hawk to dove, he was just saying that he was not done with inflation so with him almost immediately reversing course, it could bring fear that the labor market is even weaker than we think it is. Cutting rates generally signals that a large downward move in the market is imminent, the GDP is still high, the unemployment is still low and we apparently still have a strong consumer given the recent retail sales report but we still have high inflation, so the fed cutting right now makes no sense unless they know something most people don't.Seems that way.

So what are you thinking like a 20 percent correction?

I think what is overoptimistic is the belief that yourself or any one person or a group of people knows better than the market.

The market is wrong plenty in the short term, that’s what creates opportunities to make money

It can be wrong on the down side and it can be wrong on the up

Tough to say, I'm still not a bear unless the S&P goes back above its ATHs, if it puts in a lower high then I can get on board with the bullish view of higher until the EoY.

The bulls are being too greedy and it could be the death of them, if you are bull then a bull but don't be a pig, pigs get roasted.

The next support is at ~500 if we move down now but I think we can crash 50%+ if we go to/above ATHs.

Can you explain your logic?

Sounds like next year no matter what happens you see a big drop?

Maybe he means we run up 30 percent to all time highs then drop 50 percent which would really only be a 20 percent drop which I’m fine with

A 50% crash from ATH would be 2850, which would be huge.

It would also be in fantasy land.

Depending on which statistics you look at only about 1% to 5% of investor and traders actually make money, so what you believe to be an opportunity to make money is actually an opportunity to lose money. According to a famous recent study by Fidelity, the most profitable accounts belong to dead people, they never doubted the market.

A 3-beta stock like pltr drops 60% when sp500 drops 20%

So you’d need to hedge or adjust your positions prior.

Of course this is silly and hopefully you don’t trade or invest based on posts of a random internet poster.

Stop it, the guy has been right multiple times in this thread, he might not be able to predict where the market is headed long term but you can’t doubt his TA skills