A 50% retrace on SPY from the last correction is plausible. That would be 450

wot. so 225?

No.

450

Yes.

I think we are headed down in almost every scenario.

Just going off the fed portion of the analysis, if the fed doesn't cut in September then the market will view it unfavorably, if the fed cuts .25 then the labor market will suffer and the market would view that unfavorably, if the fed cuts .50 then the market will become fearful of things being worse than they are telling but the labor market will have more support, if the fed cuts .75 or greater then it will lead to panic in the markets but the labor market will have a god chance of recovering quickly which could stave off recession and the markets would like that.

There is no action that the fed could take that the market would love, it would have been better for markets if the labor data wasn't so bad so we could push rate cuts out further and extend the rally.

The fed is not the only problem though, we have political risks with the election, we have global risks with foreign currencies and GDP.

I think a Kamala victory could mitigate the financial destruction due to her being a globalist with the ability to pull global strings.No, I mean 50% from here, I have had a ~2800 target as an absolute low for at least a year now but now I think it's a very small possibility it could go even lower.440 is my low side target if the market correction is not over, first target is 500, second is 480 then I would expect it to break ATH before the EoY.

The markets are also overvalued by many metrics whether you are talking stock market/GDP or P/E.

Our GDP and earnings are not necessarily a reflection of real value but of relative value and America has no competition.

That is why the dollar was so strong, GDP was so strong and the markets rose so quickly but you also had a big boost in consumer spending due to politics. When China reenters the world there will be an alternative to America and that will siphon off that huge GDP. If the next president is Donal Trump then that big boost in consumer spending will fall due to deportation, a sealing of the border and/or a decrease in tax money given to illegals.

You will also get a huge supply of homes put on the market by people who have been waiting to sell, they didn't want to sell because that would force them to exchange their low rate for a high one and the high rents people were receiving from housing illegals will go away depending on the election outcome.

We want to maintain inflation, not have it fall below 2% the inflation rate is already there if you take out housing and China sending us goods from a recovered China will lower inflation even further, this will allow the fed to cut more than currently anticipated over the long term and make China rich.

This means companies will likely have less pricing power and the consumer is already weak.

The technicals on the charts are also not looking favorable on many of the mega-cap names and this would make sense if the fed is going to be aggressively cutting rates.

The mega-caps don't care(except TSLA lol) about rates cuts and would prefer that they didn't happen unless the consumer became too weak, they already have a huge cash pile with steady revenues so they don't need loans, they would much rather the pressure remained on their smaller competitors.

We all saw after the fed announced that they were shifting policy, you saw Russell rally hard af while names like AMZN barley moved and NFLX was negative on the day, TSLA was up like 5%. The reason a stock like TSLA was up so much and NFLX was negative is the same, rate cuts, TSLA can sell more cars but NFLX is not going to be selling more subs. If this market deteriorates it will probably be due to further bad labor data forcing the idea of even larger cuts and if that happens then you will see another day like Friday but accelerated.

Disagree ^^^

Bull case cliffs:

Market is undervalued historically since companies are making more money now. Money printer is going brrrrr = everything will cost more including stocks and bitcoin/sol. We are in the middle of a massive bullrun, should last until middle or end of 2025 in crypto at least, and btc may never even have a bear market again for obvious reasons.

There will always be crashes and corrections which will be immediately bought up. There are trillions on the sidelines as people are mad they listened to doomsdayers and missed massive returns. Even by the end of this year, some of these money managers have to deploy, it’s their job.

Technically, the winning stocks are sitting at swing lows, google intrinsic value is $220, it’s currently trading at 160, it’s going back up, and very quickly, Amazon is an easy double from here, I said this a dozen pages ago in this thread when the stock was something like $140, I was called retarded, it’s now knocking on the door of $200, Apple was 150 bucks and people were screaming for 135, others were saying they will buy in at $90, it’s 220 now, Tesla is going to do a 10 X from here in the next 1 to 5 years, enphase is an easy double or triple from here in the next one to two years, Bitcoin should at least double from here in short order. aMD sitting at a massive swing low, should hit $300 in a few weeks/months Etc.

You’re dealing with a mindset, the bull climbs the wall of worry, bulls always always win in the end assuming they invest in top 1% of companies and always have cash on the side to buy dips, bears always lose no matter what, that’s the design, the system is literally built that way, World war and nuclear explosions and great depressions failed to keep the market down.

Think about how much trash has been said about Tesla daily, when the stock had IPO it was condemned as overvalued, it has since delivered something like 10,000% returns, that’s the story of investing, I like watching older YouTubes where various financial analysts and self proclaimed profitable Great traders are freaking out about some stock or the entire market being in trouble or going down, All you have to do is check the date of the video and the current price of the stock or ETF they’re discussing, and you’re going to get a good laugh, you literally have to just buy the good stuff and ignore the bears, that is the shortest easiest way to make the most money.

Posted 03/21/24AAPL hit the bottom on 04/19/24, going down an additional ~7% from the time of my post with the total correction being about 17%, you know what I did because I said what I was going to do lol.

I'm still not a bull but I bought calls on 08/05/24 and I'm still not a bear but I bought puts on stuff like NVDA recently.

I'm more neutral and I honestly don't give a damn what happens next, I'm prepared and planned for everything.



Fed's Yellen expects no new financial crisis in 'our lifetimes'
https://www.reuters.com/article/econ...idUSKBN19I2NT/



You sound like your name is Janet when you say stuff like BTC will never have another bear market again lol "obvious reasons" LMAO!

I like this summary about bull and bear markets:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insig...-miscalculates

Edit:

To avoid double posting I’ll post here. I was bored on a call this morning so I was checking out the RILEY stock Reddit and holy fuk the “activist” shorts against this company are wild lmao. Sounded like there were 2 different ones but the one guy they linked his twitter it sounded like a paranoid skitzo saying RILEY himself was sending goons to his house to threaten him and stuff. Kinda a funny drama playing out with a casual $200m market cap company in the balance.

I think there was some bad deals made and the company is probably over levered at this point in time, but no bonds are due till 2025 and losses from mark downs on companies held privately are non-cash losses. There’s no immediate “smoking gun” that would trigger a collapse particularly as FRG restructures and addresses their debt which they have till mid September now.

These shorts are playing with the end game of hitting $0, but I don’t think that will happen. Mr Riley is the founder and I think he has too much at stake for his reputation and he is too attached to the company he founded to let this go. I’m betting on a big ol squeeze hence I swapped from bonds/preferred shares to common and I might increase my stake Monday if I can buy under $6. Just got 300 shares right now. I’d consider buying 200 more and buying some quite deep calls if I can get them at a decent price for a squeeze. I’ve read the short interest is between 70 and 80% still we will have a better picture on that front by Monday.

Anybody here have their paths set out for a low-rate market? I felt a bit foolish transferring from my Russell 2000 in my 401k but I transferred back.

My understanding is that Tesla and Enphase should do well as their customers like low interest rate, and will start buying more, things like iwm and small stuff should go up, bitcoin loves liquidity, so that also should go up with the money printer going brrrr. So essentially nothing changes in my strategy lol

are there main characters in the trad stock market like crypto? Was cathy the last main character? Will it be tom lee this time around?

Are all these thoughts on the economy your own or is there a YouTuber or forum you go to to get this information?

Quoted for fail

It looked like a link just like all the others on my phone… haha

I: Self, Lord and Master.

Housebuilding is another area to look into.

Ok I was just curious cuz I enjoy reading and watching stuff about the economy, I heard a similar theory to yours on impact theory

Yeah, agreed. Please keep the TA coming Abzu. Always find your takes very interesting and insightful.

If you enjoy reading about the economy then there is a lot of information out there whether you are looking at how the fed affects the market, how does the dollar affect the rest of the economy or what the price of oil means broadly.

I use general economics and try to find patterns. My trading style comes from starting with the basics and then working my way up. My bankroll management and use of probability to make decisions comes from when I used to play poker.

You have general rules like if the dollar goes down then commodities go up due to being priced in dollars(among other reasons), high bond yields are an alternative to stock investing due to safety and a good guarantee of future cash flow, lower bond yields are a boon for high dividend paying companies since they offer a higher yield in a lower interest rate environment.







In this case you can see that the dollar and oil were rallying together from 03/08 to 06/08(they are not supposed to do this which means one of them is a liar) in 07/08 oil collapsed about 80% but the dollar kept on rising, showing that it was the truth back then lol.

This happened again not long after, from 05/21 to 06/22, oil and the dollar once again rallied together, it was the same story lol oil collapsed but the dollar continued to rally until 10/22.

Interestingly enough, the dollar and oil have been rallying and falling together since 01/23, this typically means something bad is about to happen.



2008: crash, 2022: crash, 2024: priceless?

Historically, oil and dollar have had an inverse relationship at least 75% of the time. Also the relationship between them is a little bit or actually a lot more nuanced than the graph and post above suggests. I can go into it more, but it’s actually completely irrelevant to the stock price of relevant stocks for the next several years and therefore our profits.

Lol.

You are saying oil has no effect on stocks?

Destor is probably the most knowledgeable when it comes to oil, I think thats the only thing he trades and I believe he sold out already, I wonder what he thinks about this.



To expound on my earlier post on increasing market knowledge, when it comes to TA, you should use each indicator individually until you can use if efficiently then you combine it with other individual indicators you have mastered.

Most people recognize the 200DMA as extremely important which makes it extremely important lol so I would start with the moving averages and pay attention to how they interact.

I use the 9, 20, 50, 100 and 200 but other traders use custom averages, the next one I would look into would be another popular one in the RSI and the TD9 if you can find it.



Trading View removed the TD sequential in 2023 but you can write a script for it or just do the count manually.








Calculation of the TD Sequential

The TD Sequential comprises two main phases: the TD Setup phase and the TD Countdown phase. These phases help identify potential trend reversals in bullish and bearish markets. Here is an overview of how the TD Sequential is calculated in both directions:

TD Setup phase: The TD Setup phase consists of a 9-candle count. In a bullish trend, a starting number ‘1’ is plotted if a candle closes higher than the close of a candle four periods ago. In a bearish trend, a starting number ‘1’ is plotted if a candle closes lower than the close of a candle four periods ago. The following numbers are plotted when each successive candle satisfies the four-period rule. The potential reversal point comes when the TD Sequential plots the number ‘9’ on top of a candle in a bullish trend or at the bottom of a candle in a bearish trend. The TD Setup is immediately canceled if, at any point, a candle fails to satisfy the four-period rule.
TD Countdown phase: The TD Countdown phase starts after completing the TD Setup phase and consists of a 13-candle count. In a bullish countdown, each candle’s close is compared to the close of two candles earlier, and the close must be greater than the close two periods earlier. In a bearish countdown, each candle’s close is compared to the close of two candles earlier, and the close must be lower than the close two periods earlier. The countdown does not require a consecutive sequence of candles; if the order of candles is interrupted, the countdown is not canceled. The TD Countdown phase generates stronger trading signals than the Setup phase, with the potential for longer-lasting price reversals.

By understanding the bullish and bearish trends calculations, traders can use the TD Sequential to better anticipate potential trend reversals and optimize their trading strategies.

Interpretation of the TD Sequential

The TD Sequential generates specific numerical values on the chart, following an ascending order from 1 to 9 in the Setup phase and from 1 to 13 in the Countdown phase. These numbers, plotted above or below the respective candles, provide potential signals for trend exhaustion and price reversal.

In the Setup phase, a completed 9-count indicates a potential reversal point. In the Countdown phase, a completed 13-count suggests a higher probability of trend reversal. Additionally, the TD Sequential generates TDST lines, which act as support and resistance levels based on the extremes of the first candle in the Setup phase.
Example scanners and strategies that use TD Sequential

The TD Sequential can be used in both Scanning the market and Testing Strategies. To see how exactly it can be used in these ways, we provide the following samples. The scanner searches the market for stocks using this indicator, and the strategy tests buying and selling rules built around this indicator.

How to Use the TD Sequential in Trading

Identify the Setup phase: Look for a completed 9-count in a bullish or bearish trend. This may signal a potential reversal point.
Observe the Countdown phase: After a completed Setup phase, watch for a 13-count. This indicates a higher probability of trend reversal.
Monitor support and resistance levels (TDST lines): Use the TDST lines as potential entry and exit points and stop-loss levels.
Combine with other technical analysis tools: Enhance the effectiveness of the TD Sequential by using it in conjunction with other technical indicators or price patterns.

Advantages of the TD Sequential

Applicable across various timeframes and assets: The TD Sequential can be used on any financial-traded asset and on multiple timeframes, making it a versatile tool for traders.
Early identification of trend reversals: The TD Sequential allows traders to enter or exit positions ahead of significant market moves by identifying potential exhaustion points.
Clear, quantifiable signals: The numerical values generated by the TD Sequential provide easily interpretable signals, reducing the subjectivity often associated with technical analysis.

Limitations of the TD Sequential

No guarantee of price reversal: While the TD Sequential indicates potential trend reversals, it does not guarantee that they will occur. This can lead to false signals and potential losses.
Dependency on historical data: Like other technical analysis tools, the TD Sequential relies on historical price data, which may not always indicate future price movements.
Lack of context: The TD Sequential focuses solely on price action, ignoring other market factors such as news events, economic data, and investor sentiment.

The bottom line

The TD Sequential is a valuable technical analysis tool that can help traders identify trend exhaustion and potential price reversals. By understanding the calculation and interpretation of the TD Sequential, traders can incorporate it into their trading strategies to enhance their market timing. However, it is vital to recognize the TD Sequential’s limitations and use it in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools. By doing so, traders can develop a more comprehensive and practical approach to navigating the financial markets.
https://trendspider.com/learning-cen...e-for-traders/







The SPY hit a 9 count on 08/21 and then hit a bearish engulfing candle the next day with no follow through on it Friday.

Here you go boyos! I know you've waited all day for this.

GL next week boys, it should be a good one with NVDA reporting and PCE but even if it's not, we get job data the following week, CPI a week later, PPI a week later plus JPow has to tell us how much he is going to cut and that's definitely hot lol.

I'm gonna be fairly focused on seeing what RILY short interest looks like tomorrow and watching how it trades + short volume. Oaktree deal should be finalized within a week or so which will give Riley $180 million to work with. A majority of RILY groups are profitable and I am hoping they are using any and all free cash to repurchase their bonds at 0.25-0.5 on the dollar. It would be clutch to see they've maxed out their $100 million revolver to pay down $300 million of bonds. Obviously this hasn't happened based on how bonds are trading, but based on how RILYM has traded I am hopeful they did cover a decent amount below $16 which is still 65 cents on the dollar.

There are a few more possible catalysts that could trigger the short squeeze. One being Mr B Riley ups his common share buyout to $8.50. Two Oaktree cash infusion. Three baby bond buyback. Four 10-k drop and the expectation is a big noncash write down on FRG, but the rest of the company as a whole could look decent and they stash an extra $15 million in cash PLUS 1.5 million in cash they can use to paydown debts at 50-60 cents on the dollar by not paying dividends to common and preferred shares. Market cap is sub $200 million so with 30 million shares outstanding, only a 15.5 million share float, and as of 7/31/24 a 79% short interest I won't be surprised if money starts flowing in. It seems like a certainty that once the quiet period is over and 10-k is released that Bryant Riley and perhaps others start buying more shares on the open market as well.4

Kr + ACI start their trial tomorrow for their merger as well. I am betting on at least 1 stumble there so Kr probably dips to or below $50 at which point I'll strongly consider December or January $55 calls. I think October is too soon to bother re-entering the calls I had previously.

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac I am hoping to our lord and savior Jesus Fn Christ that the judge in the class action trial renders a decision this week about the appeal made by the FHFA's legal counsel. Their request has a poor legal basis so hopefully this can go forward without further appeals and they'll had me a nice 5 figure damages check.

Abzu,

To answer your question :

That is correct, oil got dick all to do with relevant stocks, the relevant industries for the next several years are AI and bitcoin/sol, everything else is slower, and if you look at stocks like Apple, Amazon, or bitcoin there is actually no relationship or effect with Oil at all, it ranges between - 0.05 to + 0.05 which is nothing. Ok maybe -0.1 to 0.1 for some tech stocks coefficient. Which is still nothing.

That technical indicator seems to be very inaccurate as proven by your own graph, the most accurate technical indicator statistically is the IC,

PLTR is hitting the deck lol.You are not viewing this in proper terms, I'm not talking about a constant, direct relationship with tech stocks, I'm talking a collapse in oil.

A collapse in oil generally means a collapse in demand and employment which generally means people will have less to spend.

If people have less to spend then that means less Iphones, cyber trucks and gaming devices which means lower earnings.

Historically this has not been a pattern, because you’re only looking at half the picture, the other half of the picture or the other side of the coin or whatever the expression is, is that a collapsing oil reduces apples manufacturing costs, and increases customers spending, this was the case in 2015 for example, Oil collapsed while Apple stock went up a lot, gs even did a study and oil drops just had apple stock go up higher and higher.

Oil brah here, demand is down, supply is suppressed, oil should be a lot higher than it is if the economy is as strong as people think it is. Also, China is completely fooked, the Middle East is one ballistic missile away from a very large conflict. Gavin N. pissed off Chevron, if they close Chevron Richmond it means no aviation fuel for the west coast, including the military…

I’m getting back into COP and have positions in REPX and TALO.

IMO oil is not tied to tech stocks at all, oil is tied to global events however.