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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
08-26-2024, 09:43 AM
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#6901
Originally Posted By kusok⏩
Just about every time you have had a market crash, that means a tech crash, oil also collapsed.Historically this has not been a pattern, because you’re only looking at half the picture, the other half of the picture or the other side of the coin or whatever the expression is, is that a collapsing oil reduces apples manufacturing costs, and increases customers spending, this was the case in 2015 for example, Oil collapsed while Apple stock went up a lot, gs even did a study and oil drops just had apple stock go up higher and higher.
It happened 2022, 2020, 2018, 2015(delayed), 2011, 2008 and 2000 lol.
People aren't buying Iphones when they have no job and maxed credit.
If people don't buy Iphones then AAPL sells less services.
What would the bull case for AAPL be right now?
China? The Fed? Anything else?
Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I made a move on TALO and DVN recently but I'm not planning on sticking with it, I was looking at COP too but why would you be buying them right now if you think that demand is weak and China is fuked?Oil brah here, demand is down, supply is suppressed, oil should be a lot higher than it is if the economy is as strong as people think it is. Also, China is completely fooked, the Middle East is one ballistic missile away from a very large conflict. Gavin N. pissed off Chevron, if they close Chevron Richmond it means no aviation fuel for the west coast, including the military…
I’m getting back into COP and have positions in REPX and TALO.
IMO oil is not tied to tech stocks at all, oil is tied to global events however.
I’m getting back into COP and have positions in REPX and TALO.
IMO oil is not tied to tech stocks at all, oil is tied to global events however.
China and America at full economic capacity means oil would stay high but China is in recession and it appears that America is about to enter one.
You think major war in the ME is likely?
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-26-2024, 10:08 AM
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#6902
Range on oil appears to be $81 to $68 and you are below the 200MA, if it does go to $68 then it opens the door to <$60 if it doesn't make a strong bounce and if that happens, then we are talking recession.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-26-2024, 11:11 AM
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#6903
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I’m not going heavy in COP like I did in 2020/2021 just adding here and there. They are still growing their moat with merges and acquisitions and very disciplined with capital. Wars wreak havoc on energy markets disrupting supply, China is ****ed but them being ****ed means their government will grow more and more desperate (think Taiwan as a distraction) which would mean more sanctions and more disruption. More disruption means higher prices and US crude will benefit. Supply disruptions are more of a risk IMO than demand destruction right now. And yes I think things will escalate in the Middle East, Iran is seeing what they can get away with while the US president fumbles through a simple speech. Russia is growing weaker and weaker, just look at what Ukraine has accomplished with a fleet of drones. US is still powered by oil, even EV are already phasing out of relevancy.Just about every time you have had a market crash, that means a tech crash, oil also collapsed.
It happened 2022, 2020, 2018, 2015(delayed), 2011, 2008 and 2000 lol.
People aren't buying Iphones when they have no job and maxed credit.
If people don't buy Iphones then AAPL sells less services.
What would the bull case for AAPL be right now?
China? The Fed? Anything else?
I made a move on TALO and DVN recently but I'm not planning on sticking with it, I was looking at COP too but why would you be buying them right now if you think that demand is weak and China is fuked?
China and America at full economic capacity means oil would stay high but China is in recession and it appears that America is about to enter one.
You think major war in the ME is likely?
It happened 2022, 2020, 2018, 2015(delayed), 2011, 2008 and 2000 lol.
People aren't buying Iphones when they have no job and maxed credit.
If people don't buy Iphones then AAPL sells less services.
What would the bull case for AAPL be right now?
China? The Fed? Anything else?
I made a move on TALO and DVN recently but I'm not planning on sticking with it, I was looking at COP too but why would you be buying them right now if you think that demand is weak and China is fuked?
China and America at full economic capacity means oil would stay high but China is in recession and it appears that America is about to enter one.
You think major war in the ME is likely?
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
08-26-2024, 12:41 PM
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#6904
- TugOfPeace
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- TugOfPeace
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Looking at UPST.. thought of buying $80C for Jan 2025. Surprised at how expensive they are.
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
08-26-2024, 01:11 PM
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#6905
08-26-2024, 01:29 PM
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#6906
Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Almost all countries and every car maker is rapidly switching to EV. Thou almost nobody can really do it profitably except Tesla. EV being phased out???I’m not going heavy in COP like I did in 2020/2021 just adding here and there. They are still growing their moat with merges and acquisitions and very disciplined with capital. Wars wreak havoc on energy markets disrupting supply, China is ****ed but them being ****ed means their government will grow more and more desperate (think Taiwan as a distraction) which would mean more sanctions and more disruption. More disruption means higher prices and US crude will benefit. Supply disruptions are more of a risk IMO than demand destruction right now. And yes I think things will escalate in the Middle East, Iran is seeing what they can get away with while the US president fumbles through a simple speech. Russia is growing weaker and weaker, just look at what Ukraine has accomplished with a fleet of drones. US is still powered by oil, even EV are already phasing out of relevancy.
08-26-2024, 01:40 PM
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#6907
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
in short, traditional textbook investing advice would be to say that the boring stocks and sectors basically do well in the recession, so basically you would sell your pltr and buy something boring like Coca-Cola, etc.,So what stocks will be safe from a recession, everyone’s talking gloom and doom but y’all aren’t saying how to plan
that being said that advice is complete bullshiet, because you can still hold big tech like Microsoft, and it will obliterate the returns of the boring stocks During recession before recession after recession etc. recession is one of those words people on TV use, it’s noise, you should just ignore it
08-26-2024, 01:43 PM
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#6908
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Went fairly risk on today. Loaded 10 RILY $8c for Sept monthly at $51 each.
Bought 100 RILYZ at $9.50
Still holding 300 shares and BTC the $7cc I had at $70 this morning.
Volume is finally starting to dry up which is going to jack up the days to cover significantly. I’m all in for the squeeze bby
the option volume is quite muted but if it starts picking up there could easily be a big move. My calls are praying someone comes along and starts buying up huge numbers of calls and starts the gamma ramp.
Shares are still hard to find to short and costs 70% interest so short interest hasn’t gone down significantly if I had to guess.
Edit: Put/call ratio is 5.4 wowza didn’t realize how hard I was fighting the trend. Regardless hoping for some news to juice this and get r going.
Bought 100 RILYZ at $9.50
Still holding 300 shares and BTC the $7cc I had at $70 this morning.
Volume is finally starting to dry up which is going to jack up the days to cover significantly. I’m all in for the squeeze bby
the option volume is quite muted but if it starts picking up there could easily be a big move. My calls are praying someone comes along and starts buying up huge numbers of calls and starts the gamma ramp.Shares are still hard to find to short and costs 70% interest so short interest hasn’t gone down significantly if I had to guess.
Edit: Put/call ratio is 5.4 wowza didn’t realize how hard I was fighting the trend. Regardless hoping for some news to juice this and get r going.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-26-2024, 01:57 PM
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#6909
Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
That makes a lot of sense but you are not worried about America and China going into recession at the same time?I’m not going heavy in COP like I did in 2020/2021 just adding here and there. They are still growing their moat with merges and acquisitions and very disciplined with capital. Wars wreak havoc on energy markets disrupting supply, China is ****ed but them being ****ed means their government will grow more and more desperate (think Taiwan as a distraction) which would mean more sanctions and more disruption. More disruption means higher prices and US crude will benefit. Supply disruptions are more of a risk IMO than demand destruction right now. And yes I think things will escalate in the Middle East, Iran is seeing what they can get away with while the US president fumbles through a simple speech. Russia is growing weaker and weaker, just look at what Ukraine has accomplished with a fleet of drones. US is still powered by oil, even EV are already phasing out of relevancy.
If America/China have strong economies and these conflicts will persist as you say then oil should boom.
I'm an oil bull and cannot wait until these prices get cheap enough to buy and hold over the long term.
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Just going off the technicals:I'm gonna be fairly focused on seeing what RILY short interest looks like tomorrow and watching how it trades + short volume. Oaktree deal should be finalized within a week or so which will give Riley $180 million to work with. A majority of RILY groups are profitable and I am hoping they are using any and all free cash to repurchase their bonds at 0.25-0.5 on the dollar. It would be clutch to see they've maxed out their $100 million revolver to pay down $300 million of bonds. Obviously this hasn't happened based on how bonds are trading, but based on how RILYM has traded I am hopeful they did cover a decent amount below $16 which is still 65 cents on the dollar.
There are a few more possible catalysts that could trigger the short squeeze. One being Mr B Riley ups his common share buyout to $8.50. Two Oaktree cash infusion. Three baby bond buyback. Four 10-k drop and the expectation is a big noncash write down on FRG, but the rest of the company as a whole could look decent and they stash an extra $15 million in cash PLUS 1.5 million in cash they can use to paydown debts at 50-60 cents on the dollar by not paying dividends to common and preferred shares. Market cap is sub $200 million so with 30 million shares outstanding, only a 15.5 million share float, and as of 7/31/24 a 79% short interest I won't be surprised if money starts flowing in. It seems like a certainty that once the quiet period is over and 10-k is released that Bryant Riley and perhaps others start buying more shares on the open market as well.4
Kr + ACI start their trial tomorrow for their merger as well. I am betting on at least 1 stumble there so Kr probably dips to or below $50 at which point I'll strongly consider December or January $55 calls. I think October is too soon to bother re-entering the calls I had previously.
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac I am hoping to our lord and savior Jesus Fn Christ that the judge in the class action trial renders a decision this week about the appeal made by the FHFA's legal counsel. Their request has a poor legal basis so hopefully this can go forward without further appeals and they'll had me a nice 5 figure damages check.
There are a few more possible catalysts that could trigger the short squeeze. One being Mr B Riley ups his common share buyout to $8.50. Two Oaktree cash infusion. Three baby bond buyback. Four 10-k drop and the expectation is a big noncash write down on FRG, but the rest of the company as a whole could look decent and they stash an extra $15 million in cash PLUS 1.5 million in cash they can use to paydown debts at 50-60 cents on the dollar by not paying dividends to common and preferred shares. Market cap is sub $200 million so with 30 million shares outstanding, only a 15.5 million share float, and as of 7/31/24 a 79% short interest I won't be surprised if money starts flowing in. It seems like a certainty that once the quiet period is over and 10-k is released that Bryant Riley and perhaps others start buying more shares on the open market as well.4
Kr + ACI start their trial tomorrow for their merger as well. I am betting on at least 1 stumble there so Kr probably dips to or below $50 at which point I'll strongly consider December or January $55 calls. I think October is too soon to bother re-entering the calls I had previously.
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac I am hoping to our lord and savior Jesus Fn Christ that the judge in the class action trial renders a decision this week about the appeal made by the FHFA's legal counsel. Their request has a poor legal basis so hopefully this can go forward without further appeals and they'll had me a nice 5 figure damages check.
RILY is in a bullish pattern but it looks like it may make a huge drawdown, I was thinking $8.70 or so would be the top when you mentioned it earlier and it already crossed $9 briefly, I would have taken profit and then looked to reenter especially with so much uncertainty.
Very likely bounce at about $2.80 but looks likely to go to ~$2.25 with a much smaller possibility of .50c., on the positive side, there is still a great chance of it going to ~$10 eventually but it needs to hold ~$2.25.
Current range appears to be ~$2.25 to ~$6.75, it currently looks bearish on ever time frame except the <10min, longer time frames still show a lot of room down.
I think $50 is a perfect target for KR and it looks bearish right now.
I have targets on FNMA at .53c to .65c and they remain active.
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
Will comment later.So what stocks will be safe from a recession, everyone’s talking gloom and doom but y’all aren’t saying how to plan
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-26-2024, 05:48 PM
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#6910
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
My conviction level for prices going up isn’t high atm. I sold majority of my oil stocks right before Ukraine was invaded lol. Even Destor has been selling which I think is a good move in the short term. It would take a major event to convince me otherwise. I feel like overall a lot of the market is in a wait and see mode for the election. I also think AI is way too overhyped just like how every year or two there is something the market is bonkers about. Spacs, EVs, before that it was weed stocks and solar stocks, now it’s AI.That makes a lot of sense but you are not worried about America and China going into recession at the same time?
If America/China have strong economies and these conflicts will persist as you say then oil should boom.
I'm an oil bull and cannot wait until these prices get cheap enough to buy and hold over the long term.
If America/China have strong economies and these conflicts will persist as you say then oil should boom.
I'm an oil bull and cannot wait until these prices get cheap enough to buy and hold over the long term.
Hard for me to double quote on mobile but regarding EV I think without the subsidies there is no market and EVs are a scam in general (financially, green nonesense). EVs are like “new Coke”, supposed to be better but it sucks.
I’m def an oil bull too, if it crashes again like if Russia decides to flood the market with cheap crude (after it loses to Ukraine) to piss of opec best believe im going all in
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
08-26-2024, 05:54 PM
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#6911
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
Have cash ready to buy the deals is my plan. No sense in trying to short the market unless some major indicators are blaring like when I saw the run up on gold and made 3,500% gains on GLD call contract. What would buffet do, he’d be patient and deploy cash when everyone else is panic selling.So what stocks will be safe from a recession, everyone’s talking gloom and doom but y’all aren’t saying how to plan
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
08-26-2024, 06:18 PM
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#6912
08-27-2024, 08:41 AM
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#6913
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Moved in on some calls for RILY. Just bought a few monthlies $6 for $100 each and some $7 for $40 each.
Put buying is still big with P/C ratio at 1 and short interest clearly hasn’t abated since cost to borrow is still over 70%. Overall IV is like 250% but calls are around 170%.
At some point there will be positive news and at some point I imagine one of the pump/squeeze groups will start doing their thing. When 70% of a small float is short regardless of the underlying company prospects you can be almost certain someone will try to trap them.
Put buying is still big with P/C ratio at 1 and short interest clearly hasn’t abated since cost to borrow is still over 70%. Overall IV is like 250% but calls are around 170%.
At some point there will be positive news and at some point I imagine one of the pump/squeeze groups will start doing their thing. When 70% of a small float is short regardless of the underlying company prospects you can be almost certain someone will try to trap them.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-27-2024, 09:57 AM
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#6914
- Destor
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- Destor
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Just chiming in to say that my selling isn’t about a lack of conviction in Oil & Gas or belief that anything bad is pending, I just wanted to finish the basement in my house and prices are good enough to take profits. I still have a big chunk in O&G though, 2/3rds in Cenovus and 1/3rd in Suncor.My conviction level for prices going up isn’t high atm. I sold majority of my oil stocks right before Ukraine was invaded lol. Even Destor has been selling which I think is a good move in the short term. It would take a major event to convince me otherwise. I feel like overall a lot of the market is in a wait and see mode for the election. I also think AI is way too overhyped just like how every year or two there is something the market is bonkers about. Spacs, EVs, before that it was weed stocks and solar stocks, now it’s AI.
Hard for me to double quote on mobile but regarding EV I think without the subsidies there is no market and EVs are a scam in general (financially, green nonesense). EVs are like “new Coke”, supposed to be better but it sucks.
I’m def an oil bull too, if it crashes again like if Russia decides to flood the market with cheap crude (after it loses to Ukraine) to piss of opec best believe im going all in
Hard for me to double quote on mobile but regarding EV I think without the subsidies there is no market and EVs are a scam in general (financially, green nonesense). EVs are like “new Coke”, supposed to be better but it sucks.
I’m def an oil bull too, if it crashes again like if Russia decides to flood the market with cheap crude (after it loses to Ukraine) to piss of opec best believe im going all in
Should’ve done the fun thing and bought a lambo but trying to be responsible by putting it into the house
08-27-2024, 10:00 AM
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#6915
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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In on weekly new 52w low on WBA
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-27-2024, 01:02 PM
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#6916
I really appreciate Destor's insight into O&G because he knows how to trade it and he works in the field.
How is the demand for oil right now? How big are the bonuses? Is your employer hiring?
How do you personally see the demand flow evolving through 2025?
Can't believe I'm this excited about buying calls on WBA but I am and I think it will make me a lot richer lol.
I'm praying, not preying, on those holding RILY lol GL.
I'm exicted for what may come.
How is the demand for oil right now? How big are the bonuses? Is your employer hiring?
How do you personally see the demand flow evolving through 2025?
Can't believe I'm this excited about buying calls on WBA but I am and I think it will make me a lot richer lol.
I'm praying, not preying, on those holding RILY lol GL.
I'm exicted for what may come.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-27-2024, 01:22 PM
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#6917
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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Wallgreens, think it will behave like caravana? Caravana got beat down so bad where all bad news worst case Ontario was priced in, then it started going up like crazy. A guy on WSB made a ton off caravana. I’ve never seems a company priced with such a low price to sales before…
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
08-27-2024, 03:04 PM
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#6918
- Destor
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- Destor
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Oil will be in use for a looooong time to come, that was my basis for jumping in when COVID hit and valuations were crushed. Specific demand details though I’m not too sure about, though this year I started working for a publicly traded energy infrastructure (pipeline / transport) company.I really appreciate Destor's insight into O&G because he knows how to trade it and he works in the field.
How is the demand for oil right now? How big are the bonuses? Is your employer hiring?
How do you personally see the demand flow evolving through 2025?
Can't believe I'm this excited about buying calls on WBA but I am and I think it will make me a lot richer lol.
I'm praying, not preying, on those holding RILY lol GL.
I'm exicted for what may come.
How is the demand for oil right now? How big are the bonuses? Is your employer hiring?
How do you personally see the demand flow evolving through 2025?
Can't believe I'm this excited about buying calls on WBA but I am and I think it will make me a lot richer lol.
I'm praying, not preying, on those holding RILY lol GL.
I'm exicted for what may come.
Currently working on expansions. I don’t know about bonuses but half the people on my project are making $400k+ as 3rd party consultants.
08-27-2024, 03:37 PM
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#6919
- NestBrah
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- NestBrah
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Just looked it up and, after its huge drop, it's now paying an 11% dividend!Wallgreens, think it will behave like caravana? Caravana got beat down so bad where all bad news worst case Ontario was priced in, then it started going up like crazy. A guy on WSB made a ton off caravana. I’ve never seems a company priced with such a low price to sales before…
08-27-2024, 04:22 PM
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#6920
08-27-2024, 04:33 PM
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#6921
08-27-2024, 05:35 PM
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#6922
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
Historically there is a wait of several weeks, including even up to a year and a half, and then fireworks.Bitcoin is so annoying it shoots up then goes right back down, I was promised 100k after the halving…
If you didn’t buy this dip you need to reassess life.
08-27-2024, 07:20 PM
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#6923
- stockbruh
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- stockbruh
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
I was told 6 months after halving it always peaked, I’m starting to believe the doubters and that 70k was the peak now it’s only down from here till next halvingHistorically there is a wait of several weeks, including even up to a year and a half, and then fireworks.
If you didn’t buy this dip you need to reassess life.
If you didn’t buy this dip you need to reassess life.
08-27-2024, 09:59 PM
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#6924
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
That’s a classic sign that a pump is coming, people are starting to give up,I was told 6 months after halving it always peaked, I’m starting to believe the doubters and that 70k was the peak now it’s only down from here till next halving
once again, historically there is a period up to a year and a half after halving where nothing happens and it can even go down and then it pumps. Happened 3 or 4 times already.
Personally, given how much buying there is and how little supply there is I do not think the bull run is over, and no serious investor thinks that either. we all have to do some homework on things we invest in. But even if this was the case, then you just average down and sell options.
Until some sort of a supply crunch, it’s quite possible we’re gonna be range bound which is actually really good for option seller, and swing trader, and you can always buy under 60 and sell whenever you see a reversal in the chart, big boys are just going to hunt the leveraged retards meanwhile, Amazingly, right now literally a couple of hours after a major dump There are already leverage morons who can be liquidated if the price drops by $2000 from here, well… It’s quite possible. The big boys are gonna go after that money, just follow the bitcoin liquidation chart . Remember a few pages ago I said they’re gonna go after 62 to 63K next? And it pumped to there exactly, sometimes it’s very predictable.
Any kind of swing trading, of course, is to be done with a part of your portfolio, majority of your bitcoin should lay there, untouched.
08-28-2024, 05:09 AM
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#6925
Originally Posted By kusok⏩
BTC was at 65K on Sunday, 62K when you posted this and then went to 58K a few hours later lolThat’s a classic sign that a pump is coming, people are starting to give up,
once again, historically there is a period up to a year and a half after halving where nothing happens and it can even go down and then it pumps. Happened 3 or 4 times already.
Personally, given how much buying there is and how little supply there is I do not think the bull run is over, and no serious investor thinks that either. we all have to do some homework on things we invest in. But even if this was the case, then you just average down and sell options.
Until some sort of a supply crunch, it’s quite possible we’re gonna be range bound which is actually really good for option seller, and swing trader, and you can always buy under 60 and sell whenever you see a reversal in the chart, big boys are just going to hunt the leveraged retards meanwhile, Amazingly, right now literally a couple of hours after a major dump There are already leverage morons who can be liquidated if the price drops by $2000 from here, well… It’s quite possible. The big boys are gonna go after that money, just follow the bitcoin liquidation chart . Remember a few pages ago I said they’re gonna go after 62 to 63K next? And it pumped to there exactly, sometimes it’s very predictable.
Any kind of swing trading, of course, is to be done with a part of your portfolio, majority of your bitcoin should lay there, untouched.
once again, historically there is a period up to a year and a half after halving where nothing happens and it can even go down and then it pumps. Happened 3 or 4 times already.
Personally, given how much buying there is and how little supply there is I do not think the bull run is over, and no serious investor thinks that either. we all have to do some homework on things we invest in. But even if this was the case, then you just average down and sell options.
Until some sort of a supply crunch, it’s quite possible we’re gonna be range bound which is actually really good for option seller, and swing trader, and you can always buy under 60 and sell whenever you see a reversal in the chart, big boys are just going to hunt the leveraged retards meanwhile, Amazingly, right now literally a couple of hours after a major dump There are already leverage morons who can be liquidated if the price drops by $2000 from here, well… It’s quite possible. The big boys are gonna go after that money, just follow the bitcoin liquidation chart . Remember a few pages ago I said they’re gonna go after 62 to 63K next? And it pumped to there exactly, sometimes it’s very predictable.
Any kind of swing trading, of course, is to be done with a part of your portfolio, majority of your bitcoin should lay there, untouched.
Don't know if NVDA is going down on earnings but folks are taking money off the table.
Maybe they are preparing to buy on a down turn.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-28-2024, 05:39 AM
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#6926
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
Stocks that can maintain and grow earnings during a recession.So what stocks will be safe from a recession, everyone’s talking gloom and doom but y’all aren’t saying how to plan
What Kusok said about selling tech and buying KO is the traditional view but it's not mine.
PLTR is one company that can maintain earnings as they don't directly rely on the consumer, it may be a stock that could perform well in a recession but there is still political uncertainty. My method is to identify undervalued stocks that I think the consumer would favor in a recession so I bought calls on F, AAL and LYFT out into 2026. LYFT is for people without cars or jobs and can't afford UBER lol, AAL does the most domestic flight and they offer deals/cheap flights all the time, I think gas vehicles will get a boost by lower gas prices and I think F will be able to take advantage with their cheaper product line plus they sell the most cars in America.
I like the companies I mentioned in a recession but I also like these companies because I think they are already trading cheaply, I look for stocks with a dividend over 5% that are trading cheap and then I buy puts/sell calls on stock holdings or I sell them.
I'm confident that F, AAL and LYFT will rise with or without a recession and I'm willing to buy more if I'm wrong in the short term.
PLTR is not trading cheap so while they may make money in the recession, the stock could still sell off, GL.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-28-2024, 05:55 AM
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#6927
Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Btc was 59 when I said liquidation wall at 62, it went exactly there a few days ago, I posted the above exactly after the dump. Not rocket science. Just following the liquidation map. It’s publicly available.BTC was at 65K on Sunday, 62K when you posted this and then went to 58K a few hours later lol
Don't know if NVDA is going down on earnings but folks are taking money off the table.
Maybe they are preparing to buy on a down turn.
Don't know if NVDA is going down on earnings but folks are taking money off the table.
Maybe they are preparing to buy on a down turn.
NVDA has giant dark pool buy orders. It’s green even on massive red days. Check the order book. Nobody is selling, people are buying. It closed above 5 ema yesterday and every day. A classic pattern to remember for bullish momentum.
IMO one is nuts to hold garbage like F. There is only one car company going forward. All else is a dying relic. Can’t turn a profit. Even those who survive are going to use Tesla software. Basically a ford is going to be a Tesla anyway. If there is going to be any ford at all. Airline stocks investment is slow and one crash of one plane and your investment is fuk all. Let’s see.
08-28-2024, 06:50 AM
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#6928
- NestBrah
- Registered User
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- NestBrah
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- Join Date: Jan 2012
- Age: 33
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
You seem pretty confident we're about to enter recession, right?Stocks that can maintain and grow earnings during a recession.
What Kusok said about selling tech and buying KO is the traditional view but it's not mine.
PLTR is one company that can maintain earnings as they don't directly rely on the consumer, it may be a stock that could perform well in a recession but there is still political uncertainty. My method is to identify undervalued stocks that I think the consumer would favor in a recession so I bought calls on F, AAL and LYFT out into 2026. LYFT is for people without cars or jobs and can't afford UBER lol, AAL does the most domestic flight and they offer deals/cheap flights all the time, I think gas vehicles will get a boost by lower gas prices and I think F will be able to take advantage with their cheaper product line plus they sell the most cars in America.
I like the companies I mentioned in a recession but I also like these companies because I think they are already trading cheaply, I look for stocks with a dividend over 5% that are trading cheap and then I buy puts/sell calls on stock holdings or I sell them.
I'm confident that F, AAL and LYFT will rise with or without a recession and I'm willing to buy more if I'm wrong in the short term.
PLTR is not trading cheap so while they may make money in the recession, the stock could still sell off, GL.
What Kusok said about selling tech and buying KO is the traditional view but it's not mine.
PLTR is one company that can maintain earnings as they don't directly rely on the consumer, it may be a stock that could perform well in a recession but there is still political uncertainty. My method is to identify undervalued stocks that I think the consumer would favor in a recession so I bought calls on F, AAL and LYFT out into 2026. LYFT is for people without cars or jobs and can't afford UBER lol, AAL does the most domestic flight and they offer deals/cheap flights all the time, I think gas vehicles will get a boost by lower gas prices and I think F will be able to take advantage with their cheaper product line plus they sell the most cars in America.
I like the companies I mentioned in a recession but I also like these companies because I think they are already trading cheaply, I look for stocks with a dividend over 5% that are trading cheap and then I buy puts/sell calls on stock holdings or I sell them.
I'm confident that F, AAL and LYFT will rise with or without a recession and I'm willing to buy more if I'm wrong in the short term.
PLTR is not trading cheap so while they may make money in the recession, the stock could still sell off, GL.
08-28-2024, 07:09 AM
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#6929
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
I think there is a greater than 50% chance but it will become a lot more clear after the fed makes a decision on rate cuts.You seem pretty confident we're about to enter recession, right?
Originally Posted By kusok⏩
I just assume you are laughably wrong all the time so you are probably right about the BTC timing lol.Btc was 59 when I said liquidation wall at 62, it went exactly there a few days ago, I posted the above exactly after the dump. Not rocket science. Just following the liquidation map. It’s publicly available.
NVDA has giant dark pool buy orders. It’s green even on massive red days. Check the order book. Nobody is selling, people are buying. It closed above 5 ema yesterday and every day. A classic pattern to remember for bullish momentum.
IMO one is nuts to hold garbage like F. There is only one car company going forward. All else is a dying relic. Can’t turn a profit. Even those who survive are going to use Tesla software. Basically a ford is going to be a Tesla anyway. If there is going to be any ford at all. Airline stocks investment is slow and one crash of one plane and your investment is fuk all. Let’s see.
NVDA has giant dark pool buy orders. It’s green even on massive red days. Check the order book. Nobody is selling, people are buying. It closed above 5 ema yesterday and every day. A classic pattern to remember for bullish momentum.
IMO one is nuts to hold garbage like F. There is only one car company going forward. All else is a dying relic. Can’t turn a profit. Even those who survive are going to use Tesla software. Basically a ford is going to be a Tesla anyway. If there is going to be any ford at all. Airline stocks investment is slow and one crash of one plane and your investment is fuk all. Let’s see.
There are many smart investors who have sold out of NVDA recently and they are going to the media saying that NVDA will probably trade down on earnings but that the stock wins mid to long term. The technicals on the chart still suggest a move to <$90. Even if NVDA reports good earnings and the stock moves up, it will likely move down shortly thereafter, I'm ready either way.
I'm making the opposite play with F, I think it trades up over the short to mid term, I have a price target where I plan on selling it so I'm not necessarily looking to hold it into 2026. I think you are right overall on the car industry, it's moving electric and F is trying to go that way but I don't think they make it. They are switching to electic from gas so they are basically replacing one segment of their business for another.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
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