Cheers, m8.

He mogs you intellectually. As do I

I don't even think your fellow MAGAs who post here would support your claim of intellectually mogging anyone.

Been busy with kids finals (and sons graduation) op- haven't been here much.

I did take a moment a while back when rikters returned to make a thread shortly after designed specifically to draw and trigger you (manufacturing related) just for old times sake (it worked even though you know better:) )

So don't think I've forgotten about you, or intentionally neglected you....


Anyway- how are things going for you? Kid good? You gonna get out of cali?



Are you enjoying how things are going economically :) ?


Consumers are still healthy overall.

-Real volume is growing, card spending is hitting multi-year highs (even ex-gas), freight is moving more goods, inventories aren’t piling up (movement), and the labor market is stable.

-Yes, there’s a clear K-shape (higher-income powering ahead while lower/middle feel the pinch on discretionary), and shelter/groceries/gas are real pain points.

But the hard numbers on quantities consumed and physical movement of goods not only show no doom collapse coming - it even shows optimism:)

I.e
-Real PCE
March 2026 data ( released April 30)

•  Real PCE +0.2% MoM (+$39.6 billion) — quantities of goods and services bought still rose after stripping out prices.

•  Nominal PCE +0.9% mom

•  PCE prices +0.7% mom / +3.5% yoy

Personal income and disposable income both +0.6% that month. Saving rate dipped to 3.6% but saving dollars still totaled $857.3 billion https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026





-BOA card data ( May 12 report)

•  Total credit + debit card spending per household: +4.8% yoy — strongest monthly gain in three years.

•  Excluding gasoline: +4.0% yoy — fastest ex-gas pace in three years.

•  By income group: Lower-income still +3.1% yoy (still positive and improved from March), Middle +3.6% yoy, Higher +4.9% yoy.

•  Transaction volumes (unit-level) remained positive in restaurants, general merchandise, and travel. Discretionary spending slowed modestly for lower/middle-income (but still moving up) and higher-income kept ramping it up — yea K-shape, yet no lower end collapse.

Gas prices did add some headline noise, but the underlying strength (especially ex-gas) is clear.

https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.html

Full PDF: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.pdf



-Retail Sales ( April 21 report)

•  +1.7% mom (beat expectations), +4.0% yoy

•  Retail trade +1.9% mom / +4.2% yoy.

•  Core control group (ex-auto & gas): +0.7% mom (beat +0.2% expectations).

Broad gains across vehicles, furniture, electronics, building materials, food/beverage, health care, general merchandise, and nonstore retailers — even with gas stations surging +15.5% MoM from Iran-related price spikes.

https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html



And what I like to measure the most real physical volume indiators (freight & inventories — the stuff that actually moves)
ATA truck tonnage index (March 2026) +0.3% MoM / +3% YoY — largest year-over-year gain since October 2022.

Q1 2026 total +2.1% YoY. (Trucks move 70% of U.S. freight tonnage — this is pure volume, not dollars.)


-Rail Traffic (week ending May 2, 2026): U.S. rail traffic +3.9% YoY overall; recent weeks showing 3-4% gains in carloads and intermodal.


Business Inventories (latest data): +0.4% mom / +1.3% yoy, but inventories/sales ratio fell to 1.33 (which means goods are moving through the system, not piling up unsold).


If volume were cratering, you’d see truck/rail tonnage collapsing and warehouses overflowing.

The opposite is happening.

ATA: https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/ata-truck-tonnage-index-edged-03-higher-march

AAR Rail: https://www.aar.org/news/aar-reports-weekly-rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-may-2-2026/

Census Inventories:

https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


Cont...

Labor market
Recent jobs report
•  Private-sector payrolls: +123,000 jobs — this drove virtually all the growth.

•  Government sector: –8,000 jobs (federal government –9,000; federal employment now down 348,000 or 11.5% since its October 2024 peak).

•  Wages (private nonfarm payrolls): Average hourly earnings rose +0.2% momto $37.41 (+3.6% yoy).

And with a much lower breakevn employment level due to reduced immigration now skewing the participation rate

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0331

That net job gains are actually much higher compared to relative above break even prior to 2025

Wages indeed didn't best inflation for the first time in a while - but that was skewed highly with government wages- Private sector job gains and wage growth continue to support consumer spending power even as government payrolls shrink.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



Seems the consumer isn’t “spending more for less” in a collapsing volume sense.

Real PCE is positive, card spending (especially ex-gas) is accelerating, freight is stronger, inventories are under control, and the private sector labor market is delivering steady gains and wage increases.

There’s some real short term pain — shelter costs, groceries, gas spikes, and the uneven K-shape recovery hit lower/middle-income households harder on discretionary stuff.(still up)

macro volume, spending, and private-job data paint a picture of continued resilience :)

And companies are seeing this reality in actual earnings :)


Are you seeing this resilience in in cali?

Or does the day to day feel worse for you?

I’ll update if anything big changes :)

Buried in all the graphs is the little blurb about the things that matter most to the average knucklehead.

Who's side are you on, man?