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Forum » Actual death rate is likely .06%
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Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%

post 1600768591 03-25-2020, 09:03 PM
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Actual death rate is likely .06%

“First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections,” it reads.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...mortality-rate

Let that sink in.
post 1600771751 03-25-2020, 09:51 PM
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As if we needed another smoking gun,you are multiplying with the number ZERO.If someone hasn't caught a grip yet you won't change their mind.

People will be looking at this hysteria in hindsight for years to come and be in absolute awe.We might never find out why any of this actually happened..
post 1600771991 03-25-2020, 09:55 PM
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B b b bu bu I heard a case of a 30 year old in the ICU!!!

People not understanding the basics of statistics, data and outliers, what else is new.
post 1600772721 03-25-2020, 10:08 PM
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They don't say it's likely, they say it "could be closer to 0.06%". IMO you need to assume the actual fatality rate will be 1% or below, but this virus could hit 2/3rds of the entire human population. When you're talking 4-5billion or more people, even 1% is 40-50million deaths

Whether its worth the economic turmoil, guess time will tell
post 1600773011 03-25-2020, 10:11 PM
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true very slim chance of dying just tampon kids panicking
post 1600773061 03-25-2020, 10:12 PM
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So you're saying Italy is at 12 million actual cases?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_decline
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post 1600773091 03-25-2020, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
They don't say it's likely, they say it "could be closer to 0.06%". IMO you need to assume the actual fatality rate will be 1% or below, but this virus could hit 2/3rds of the entire human population. When you're talking 4-5billion or more people, even 1% is 40-50million deaths

Whether its worth the economic turmoil, guess time will tell
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post 1600773841 03-25-2020, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
They don't say it's likely, they say it "could be closer to 0.06%". IMO you need to assume the actual fatality rate will be 1% or below, but this virus could hit 2/3rds of the entire human population. When you're talking 4-5billion or more people, even 1% is 40-50million deaths

Whether its worth the economic turmoil, guess time will tell
About 1% of the population dies every year anyway.

150,000 people die each day

X

365.25

Thats 54 million deaths a year.

I cant wait to find out what the real agenda behind all this is....no doubt its money and power related.
post 1600774111 03-25-2020, 10:32 PM
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I'm less concerned about the death rate, which would be: the amount of deaths/total infected (accurate infected count, not necessarily the piss poor numbers we've actually recorded).

What is a larger issue is this: why the **** do we have almost triple the deaths compared to recoveries? You get me the answer on that one, and I'll be impressed. Until then, we oughta treat this **** with the upmost caution.



Anyone that says otherwise is a loon.

EDIT: the obvious answer is that there are many infected who recover without even knowing they had it, but why are we losing so many who seek hospice help?

This is a wild anecdote in NY city: recovered: 0; dead: 280. Good luck out there boyos.

post 1600774351 03-25-2020, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
I'm less concerned about the death rate, which would be: the amount of deaths/total infected (accurate infected count, not necessarily the piss poor numbers we've actually recorded).

What is a larger issue is this: why the **** do we have almost triple the deaths compared to recoveries? You get me the answer on that one, and I'll be impressed. Until then, we oughta treat this **** with the upmost caution.



Anyone that says otherwise is a loon.

EDIT: the obvious answer is that there are many infected who recover without even knowing they had it, but why are we losing so many who seek hospice help?
because those are the people who have been given the test and almost every country they are only testing people with severe respiratory distress and showing full blown symptoms which is the worse of the worse cases, the recovered rates do not include those who are a symptomatic or just told to stay home self quarantine and only seek emergency services if basically you can’t breath or super high risk like copd/cancer
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post 1600774611 03-25-2020, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted By snailsrus⏩
because those are the people who have been given the test and almost every country they are only testing people with severe respiratory distress and showing full blown symptoms which is the worse of the worse cases, the recovered rates do not include those who are a symptomatic or just told to stay home self quarantine and only seek emergency services if basically you can’t breath or super high risk like copd/cancer
yeah, I already stated that in my post. But again, you've not address why have there been 0 recoveries for those that have received hospice care in NYC. Try again.
post 1600774661 03-25-2020, 10:46 PM
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Another robust alpha slayer that gets it.

Meanwhile soyboy redditors w buttplugs and bernie posters think this is the 2nd black plague LMFAO.
post 1600774861 03-25-2020, 10:50 PM
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There’s already a thread about this.

Cliffs:

It’s an opinion piece. They should try to publish their model if they want anyone to take it seriously.

There are already studies, at least four that I’m aware of, which assessed percent asymptotic in a much more direct way (literally testing a sample of a population). Values ranged from 17-85%, and 3 of the studies had overlapping CV.

Like I said before, if you’re interested, you have the internet at your hands. Go to google scholar/pub med and type in some key words. I bet by now there are at least a dozen papers on this topic.
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post 1600774931 03-25-2020, 10:51 PM
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Because you only ramped up testing recently, and it takes a few weeks before they confirm that you have recovered?
post 1600775021 03-25-2020, 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted By bigdownunder⏩
Because you only ramped up testing recently, and it takes a few weeks before they confirm that you have recovered?
Does it take the same amount of time to die, or less? Are we saying this virus is more efficient at killing than anticipated? Is that your answer?
post 1600775231 03-25-2020, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
I'm less concerned about the death rate, which would be: the amount of deaths/total infected (accurate infected count, not necessarily the piss poor numbers we've actually recorded).

What is a larger issue is this: why the **** do we have almost triple the deaths compared to recoveries? You get me the answer on that one, and I'll be impressed. Until then, we oughta treat this **** with the upmost caution.



Anyone that says otherwise is a loon.

EDIT: the obvious answer is that there are many infected who recover without even knowing they had it, but why are we losing so many who seek hospice help?

This is a wild anecdote in NY city: recovered: 0; dead: 280. Good luck out there boyos.

- there aren't enough tests out there to test whether somebody is recovered. tests are better used to test if somebody is positive
- places like SK you have to test 3 times negative before you are actually recovered
- you know somebody is dead instantly, there is likely a 3 week lag time on determining whether somebody is recovered, perhaps longer, you will see a lot more recovery outcomes in a few weeks, think i read somewhere the virus can linger for 5 weeks
- plenty are asymptomatic and likely have recovered without people knowing it
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post 1600775381 03-25-2020, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted By sooby⏩
- there aren't enough tests out there to test whether somebody is recovered. tests are better used to test if somebody is positive
- places like SK you have to test 3 times negative before you are actually recovered
- you know somebody is dead instantly, there is likely a 3 week lag time on determining whether somebody is recovered, perhaps longer, you will see a lot more recovery outcomes in a few weeks
- plenty are asymptomatic and likely have recovered without people knowing it
So once again, the best answer here is that it kills way faster than one can recover. And you fools are calling this good news?!
post 1600775441 03-25-2020, 10:59 PM
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0.06% -- That would mean that we've had ~1.67 million cases in the US, based on a current death toll of ~1,000. That would mean 1 in 200 Americans have it or have had it recently.

It's possible I guess but I don't think it's likely. I think the true overall fatality rate will be 0.5-0.8%.
post 1600775611 03-25-2020, 11:01 PM
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The death rate in China is 4%, unless they are intentionally covering mild cases up to boost the death rate. They are doing a chit ton of testing and not finding any positives anymore other than outsiders.

In South Korea, the death rate is 1.3% and growing each day. They are doing testing and not finding much else either.

I would say the death rate is AT LEAST 1%.
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post 1600775681 03-25-2020, 11:02 PM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
So once again, the best answer here is that it kills way faster than one can recover. And you fools are calling this good news?!
and how many thousands of people are asymptomatic and literally feel nothing despite having the virus inside them? recovered simply means they tested negative for the virus after previously testing positive. people can still get better in critical condition and still wouldn't be classified as recovered because they still have some of the virus in their system and it could still potentially spread.
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post 1600775761 03-25-2020, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted By NVious⏩
Another robust alpha slayer that gets it.

Meanwhile soyboy redditors w buttplugs and bernie posters think this is the 2nd black plague LMFAO.
Repped.

Whole thing is a joke.
post 1600775911 03-25-2020, 11:07 PM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
So once again, the best answer here is that it kills way faster than one can recover. And you fools are calling this good news?!
That's every disease retard. If you're going to die from it it's going to kill you quickly. To be checked off as "recovered" you have to sit around for 3 weeks waiting for 2 separate tests to come back saying you have zero traces of the virus left. It's not like you're sitting in a hospital bed fighting for your life for weeks, you're at home watching netflix battling an annoying cough.
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post 1600775951 03-25-2020, 11:07 PM
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China didn't cover anything up at the start. They just didn't take it seriously like every other government.

Until chit got real in the hospitals. I think a 0.06% death rate is a gross underestimation. That's less deadly than the flu.
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post 1600775981 03-25-2020, 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
yeah, I already stated that in my post. But again, you've not address why have there been 0 recoveries for those that have received hospice care in NYC. Try again.
hospice is for people that are about to die not just sick normal people, they stop trying to treat you on hospice and just make you comfortable and drugged
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post 1600776131 03-25-2020, 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted By sooby⏩
and how many thousands of people are asymptomatic and literally feel nothing despite having the virus inside them?.
We wouldn't know - we don't have enough tests to know.
Originally Posted By sooby⏩
recovered simply means they tested negative for the virus after previously testing positive. .
And you know this how? Are you versed with how hospitals are defining recovered?
Originally Posted By sooby⏩
people can still get better in critical condition and still wouldn't be classified as recovered because they still have some of the virus in their system and it could still potentially spread.
so how does this explain away that we've lost 280 and yet still none have 'recovered' by your definition. It still defaults back to 'the virus kills faster than typical people can recover'
post 1600776191 03-25-2020, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted By snailsrus⏩
hospice is for people that are about to die not just sick normal people, they stop trying to treat you on hospice and just make you comfortable and drugged
So, at the point when you need to seek help - its too late. Is that what you're getting at? Lol? You ****ing serious? 'Don't bother going to the hospital, you're already dead.' Is that your message?
post 1600776261 03-25-2020, 11:13 PM
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When this first started getting attention in January and I saw the videos coming out of China and basically no one was following it I thought it was the apocalypse.

When it was known in February but not widely reported in the MSM I started getting paranoid.

When the MSM media went into overdrive panic mode in early March I knew there was fukery about.

If I get into April and this whole thing turns out to be "just a flu" a phrase I mocked for 3 months then heads need to fuking roll. We are being played.

So far I have been about a month ahead of the "herd". I have a feeling I am about to be really pissed
post 1600776401 03-25-2020, 11:16 PM
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I 100% believe there have been 100's of thousands, if not millions, of cases around the world that have gone unreported because the symptoms were so mild. China lies about everything and odds are this coronavirus chit has been going around since before they decided to let the world know.

I travel roughly 3 weeks out of a month and have a bad habit of not washing my hands before eating due to working in construction as a youngster. Back in Jan had a few rough days, wife showed the same like a week later. Pretty confident that we've been through it.
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post 1600776431 03-25-2020, 11:17 PM
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highly contagious
post 1600776451 03-25-2020, 11:18 PM
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Mark my words in a year from now everyone will be talking about how overblown this whole thing was.
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