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Forum » US heading for civil war model suggests
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Thread: US heading for civil war model suggests

post 1611429831 07-23-2020, 07:09 AM
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US heading for civil war model suggests

In an unpublished paper submitted for peer review, Professor Goldstone, who is a sociologist, and Peter Turchin, an expert on the mathematical modelling of historical societies, have concluded that the US is "headed for another civil war".

The conditions for civil violence, they say, are the worst since the 19th century — in particular the years leading up to the start of the American Civil War in 1861.

The reason for this are trends that began in the 1980s, "with regard to inequality, selfish elites, and polarisation that have crippled the ability of the US government to mount an effective response to the pandemic disease," they write.

This has also "hampered our ability to deliver an inclusive economic relief policy, and exacerbated the tensions over racial injustice."


https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/progr...l-war/12365280


Professor Goldstone is a leading authority on the study of revolutions and long-term social change at George Mason University. The model developed by him and Peter Turchin tracks such data as the ratio of median workers' wages to GDP per capita, life expectancy, average heights, and the number of new millionaires. It also measures political polarisation or the degree of overlap between the parties.

Applied to US history, it 'predicts' the 1861 Civil War and the unrest of the 1930s — a time of Jim Crow segregation, Gilded Age inequality, and fascism.
post 1611430551 07-23-2020, 07:18 AM
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lol what are even the two factions and whats the main reason for a war?

all i see is one side being extreme babies with zero interests in guns, uniformity, or order.

seems lopsided

the real civil war had legit causes like state rights and slavery. is unsupported notions of police brutality a cause to go to war?
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post 1611430621 07-23-2020, 07:19 AM
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Thanks professor obvious.
post 1611430751 07-23-2020, 07:20 AM
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There is no organization and the normies think they are too smart to follow.

The chance of civil war is zero.

Let's also not confuse a fat old man farting in public as being a battle.
"The manlet is a savage beast that knows no moral bound. After falling in disgrace to a manmore, a ravaged manlet would not hesitate to come from behind and land a sucker punch/ swing with a rock to the back of a manmore's head. They are ruthless and you need to spend some more time in the gutter to even begin trying to comprehend what goes on in their minds."

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post 1611430871 07-23-2020, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted By messomi⏩
an expert on the mathematical modelling of historical societies,
this is retarded, of course.


historically wars have been fomented entirely chaotically and modeling their potentiality would be a matter of posibilistic rather than probabilistic.

this is a misunderstanding of modeling as such



imagine modeling with n=20 and one of your n's is hannibal and another is tito
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post 1611430981 07-23-2020, 07:23 AM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
Thanks professor obvious.
obvious to people with eyes and a functioning brain I mean see the post above you lmao most people are clueless.
post 1611431021 07-23-2020, 07:23 AM
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Won’t be a civil war
More like a genocide of all the weak and the filth

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post 1611431111 07-23-2020, 07:24 AM
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post 1611444771 07-23-2020, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted By JaxBrah⏩
lol what are even the two factions and whats the main reason for a war?

all i see is one side being extreme babies with zero interests in guns, uniformity, or order.

seems lopsided

the real civil war had legit causes like state rights and slavery. is unsupported notions of police brutality a cause to go to war?
Seconded. The professor seemed to omit the massive amounts of foreign money bankrolling these marxist scum, US politicians who are fully onboard with anti-US policy, and the fact that over half of our elected leaders seem to have loyalty elsewhere than the US.

That said, if it comes to civil war it wouldn't be the first one sparked by the elites and foreign interests to get a country to destroy itself.

All I have is one hope: I hope that if war breaks out and we (the Pro-American patriot side) wins, that we COMPLETELY AND FULLY purge any and all people and organizations that supported Marxism and socialism out of the US. No mercy for the cowards who inevitably will say their tweets, soundbites, and video clips supporting th destruction of America where "only in spirit or jest". Fukk that, they're advocating for the destruction of our country and must be themselves destroyed if its to come to that.
post 1611445011 07-23-2020, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted By knightofday⏩
Seconded. The professor seemed to omit the massive amounts of foreign money bankrolling these marxist scum, US politicians who are fully onboard with anti-US policy, and the fact that over half of our elected leaders seem to have loyalty elsewhere than the US.

That said, if it comes to civil war it wouldn't be the first one sparked by the elites and foreign interests to get a country to destroy itself.

All I have is one hope: I hope that if war breaks out and we (the Pro-American patriot side) wins, that we COMPLETELY AND FULLY purge any and all people and organizations that supported Marxism and socialism out of the US. No mercy for the cowards who inevitably will say their tweets, soundbites, and video clips supporting th destruction of America where "only in spirit or jest". Fukk that, they're advocating for the destruction of our country and must be themselves destroyed if its to come to that.
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post 1611445441 07-23-2020, 10:06 AM
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There is 0 chance of a formal war. Who would the belligerents even be? In the real civil war there were clearly defined sides and this is not what is going on today
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post 1611445481 07-23-2020, 10:06 AM
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The only war that will happen, well, that is actually happening and has been forever is rthe ich vs everybody else, and they keep winning day by day
post 1611445501 07-23-2020, 10:07 AM
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has less to do with all that BS quoted and more to do with cable news causing polarization, with the internet / social media driving that divide further. The difference now isnt along race lines, or north v south or east v west, but rural/suburban values vs urban


That said if you get off the internet youll see people really are chill with one another. Only way I see a bloody conflict happening is if they (likely the left) go after constitutional rights. Gun ownership is an obvious one, and in the next decade I wouldnt be surprised if we try to see 'free speech shouldnt include hate speech' type nonsense from the same groups. Either one would deserve an armed rebellion
post 1611446251 07-23-2020, 10:13 AM
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We're already in a civil war. The sane vs the mentally ill
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post 1611446331 07-23-2020, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted By TaeBoNinja⏩
We're already in a civil war. The sane vs the mentally ill
lol this
post 1611446821 07-23-2020, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted By messomi⏩
US heading for civil war model suggests
The far left intentionally loses to Trump again and then offs him mid 2024.

If those 2 things happen some serious sh!t will go down.
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post 1611447301 07-23-2020, 10:24 AM
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Only one side has guns and enough assets to eat for over a month.
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post 1611447501 07-23-2020, 10:25 AM
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The only war is psychological and political and the right is doing nothing about it
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post 1611447661 07-23-2020, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted By MyBaddBrah⏩
Only one side has guns and enough assets to eat for over a month.
and the other side has engineers, hackers, scientists, logisticians, and intelligence

progressives would just use drones, biowarfare, and cut you off from resources with their superior intelligence
I wouldn't take that fight buddy

Google could one shot the entire conservative side
post 1611447991 07-23-2020, 10:29 AM
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When have models ever given predicting that the authors werent paid to produce?
post 1611448091 07-23-2020, 10:30 AM
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Just round up Antifa and Antifa supporters and put them in work camps. That'll take care of it.
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post 1611448411 07-23-2020, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted By TaeBoNinja⏩
We're already in a civil war. The sane vs the mentally ill
We let the mentally ill have an outlet to have the loudest voice via social media.

We have to get to a point where we just stop bending the knee to these dinks.
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post 1611448431 07-23-2020, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted By TBO1313⏩
There is 0 chance of a formal war. Who would the belligerents even be? In the real civil war there were clearly defined sides and this is not what is going on today
This is a fact that's always conveniently left out in these blood thirsty threads. Civil wars are fought by factions, not by people who are for gay marriage vs. those opposed to it. When some far left leaning group starts acquiring US land(through force) and encroaching on other states/territories, then we'll talk.
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post 1611448771 07-23-2020, 10:36 AM
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Oh no SJWs that can't fight or properly fire a gun what will we do oh nooo
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post 1611448781 07-23-2020, 10:36 AM
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post 1611448791 07-23-2020, 10:36 AM
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Echoing the sentiments that civil war is not gonna happen. Its weird that some people want it to tho.
post 1611449051 07-23-2020, 10:37 AM
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I think it will be more like a lot of the underclass without much job skill just won;t be able to make the numbers work, so they will just quit working and bail to Slab City and try to get on food stamps if they can.

This thread from cuck data explains the issue pretty well:

https://www.city-data.com/forum/work...-americas.html


His research found that this "career elevator" was indeed upward-sloping throughout the 70s and 80s, but had begun to flatten out through the 90s and aughts until it had leveled out by 2015. And this trend was due to the country's labor marketing polarizing into 2 tiers:

Tier 1: high-paying knowledge-based jobs
Tier 2: low-paying service-based jobs (this class of workers is literally only there to service the Tier 1s)

And the middle tier (or, middle class) disappeared over time since this work was among the first and easiest to automate or offshore.
post 1611449141 07-23-2020, 10:38 AM
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Would be the shortest civil war in history. Antifa/Lefties would be crushed in two days.
post 1611449381 07-23-2020, 10:40 AM
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I do think there will be massive civil unrest. BLM was nothing. Entire cities will burn.
post 1611449421 07-23-2020, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted By devin45k⏩
We let the mentally ill have an outlet to have the loudest voice via social media.

We have to get to a point where we just stop bending the knee to these dinks.
Well I would say social media ins't the problem, it's censorship of opposing views on it. As more dissenting voices are silenced, it all become an echo chamber for the loudest, most nutty people
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