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Forum » Can somebody please verify my probability calculations for reps?
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Thread: Can somebody please verify my probability calculations for reps?

post 1624574361 12-05-2020, 09:48 AM
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#1
  1. tvr123
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Can somebody please verify my probability calculations for reps?

Population of france 67m with 170k actives cases of rona

Seven of us for christmas dinner, each have a 0.25% chance of being infected gives a 1.75% (0.25%*7) chance overall. Likely lower since none of us live near any hotspots.

Mortality rate amongst over 70s of 5.4%.

Assuming transmission risk of 100% amongst us at christmas, my granny has a 0.095% (0.0175*0.054) of dying from rona by coming for christmas.

Did I fuk something up or is this correct?

will rep
Neg female miscers on sight crew (I only like boys)
Rep hendrixfreak70 on sight crew
Road to 405 squat crew 380/405. Road to 500 DL crew 500/500
post 1624575091 12-05-2020, 09:58 AM
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#2
  1. MuscleXtreme
  2. INTJ - Christian
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Originally Posted By tvr123⏩
Population of france 67m with 170k actives cases of rona

Seven of us for christmas dinner, each have a 0.25% chance of being infected gives a 1.75% (0.25%*7) chance overall. Likely lower since none of us live near any hotspots.

Mortality rate amongst over 70s of 5.4%.

Assuming transmission risk of 100% amongst us at christmas, my granny has a 0.095% (0.0175*0.054) of dying from rona by coming for christmas.

Did I fuk something up or is this correct?

will rep
The other variable I would throw in is the mortality rate from pre-existing conditions versus not for those over 70.
post 1624575741 12-05-2020, 10:06 AM
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#3
  1. Krackerjacked
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After reviewing your calculations (and doing a few of my own) I will hereby go on record to say that statistically she’llbefine/10.

Enjoy your family Christmas m8
Sloots Gon Sloot.
post 1624575851 12-05-2020, 10:07 AM
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Yes
-Some people say good things come to those who wait, truth is, good things come to those who work..... who work later.....who work harder...... who are willing to go further than anyone else to get them. If you're waiting for good things to come to you, you'll be waiting for a pretty long time.

-I'd rather live life saying "I failed" than "I could have"
post 1624575881 12-05-2020, 10:08 AM
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Location: France.

You're more likely to be murdered by an enricher than Covid killing you.
post 1624576001 12-05-2020, 10:09 AM
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  1. tvr123
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Originally Posted By MuscleXtreme⏩
The other variable I would throw in is the mortality rate from pre-existing conditions versus not for those over 70.
I thought about that but it's difficult to find data for that. The only data I could find was from February from China which I don't trust.

The other thing I thought about was that we in fact have a 0% chance of being amongst the active cases seeing as none of us have tested positive. The subset of population we could potentially come under would be those unknowingly infected. Of course we don't know how many people make up that category but is it safe to assume that it is equal or less than total detected cases? (Especially considering the number of false positives)
Neg female miscers on sight crew (I only like boys)
Rep hendrixfreak70 on sight crew
Road to 405 squat crew 380/405. Road to 500 DL crew 500/500
post 1624576111 12-05-2020, 10:11 AM
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#7
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It's a decent estimation.
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I am not an incel, nor identify as one. I am simply here to have a good time discussing. My posts that may come off as offensive are all satirical and they have no harmful intent.
post 1624576281 12-05-2020, 10:13 AM
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#8
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after a very detailed layout of your calculations i have come to the conclusion that youregonnamakeit/10
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post 1624578401 12-05-2020, 10:41 AM
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#9
  1. MuscleXtreme
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Originally Posted By tvr123⏩
I thought about that but it's difficult to find data for that. The only data I could find was from February from China which I don't trust.

The other thing I thought about was that we in fact have a 0% chance of being amongst the active cases seeing as none of us have tested positive. The subset of population we could potentially come under would be those unknowingly infected. Of course we don't know how many people make up that category but is it safe to assume that it is equal or less than total detected cases? (Especially considering the number of false positives)
It’s definitely going to be less, but yeah the probability is only as good as the inputs, so it would be best to leave it out. We just know that it probably significantly lowers that mortality rate.
post 1624578691 12-05-2020, 10:45 AM
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#10
  1. tvr123
  2. Dungeon gym brah
  1. tvr123
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Alright cheers everyone, reps to all you ****s till I'm out.

To tell the truth my gran is cool with coming but her 'companion/boyfriend' is a huge panic **** and 'is taking it very seriously'. I find it very selfish on his part that he would force her to stay away for christmas due to his own anxiety/fearfulness. I'm going to present them with this probability in an effort to try and get them round (at least my gran, don't care if he's too scared to come)
Neg female miscers on sight crew (I only like boys)
Rep hendrixfreak70 on sight crew
Road to 405 squat crew 380/405. Road to 500 DL crew 500/500
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