Haven't done this level of Algebra since College and I don't use it in day to day life so need some help here.

In regards to Covid using "official" absolute numbers is it correct to state that my chances of dying of Covid in the US are roughly 00.2% since 603,000 people have died of Covid out of a 332 Million population.

Or would it technically be much lower than that since I first have to catch COVID which I have about a 10% chance of catching at the current numbers and then There is about a 2% chance of dying after contracting the Virus? Would the answer be the same?

RIP MiscMathemetician

can't help u there, fail math in high school crew

calculations based on false numbers will produce false results

your odds are so close to zero that you may as well call it zero

I need to know how to do the math though and I didn't want to get into a political debate about COVID. I'm pretty sure we agree on the false narrative being pushed about COVID though.

A friend is arguing about the statistical likely hood of dying of the virus vs dying of the vax. If we take all the info coming out about false positive PCR tests and 95% of COVID deaths having 4 or more comorbidities a healthy adult has a higher chance of dying of the VAX in any given month than the virus. Not to mention the vax seems to kill indiscriminately vs the virus targets fatties and geriatrics.

COVID numbers are well known now too. The VAX numbers are just number of deaths so far and according to official sources its probably being underreported.

The vax won't kill you but it could make you impotent.

You have nothing to lose...

Age is a factor so add that math into there

An under reported 5000 people have died from the Vax in 3 months. It kills indiscriminately too, COVID targets fatties and old fuks. Too bad it didn't target sub-human IQ Neanderthals like you though huh?

i would wager that for a healthy adult below 40, there probably is more chance of some sort of adverse outcome with the "vaccine"

Odds of dying from COVID-19 (assuming you have it) * Odds of contracting COVID-19 = Overall rate of death

Which is the same as Death from COVID-19 / Total Population

Either way it is the same. .2% is correct.

This is like talking about a fixed rate. To make this a bit more simple, figure 500k out of 332M Americans died from Covid in 2020. *assuming* this rate continues, that means *each year* you have a 0.15% chance of dying from Covid.This starts talking about two probabilities, P{X} and P{Y | X}, where P{X} = probability of you getting covid, P{Y | X} = probability of you dying after if you get covid. I don't know where you're getting the 10% number, or what it means {you have a 10% chance to catch it this month in NYC? this year anywhere?}.



If you have M% chance of getting it this year, people who get it die at a rate of 2%, and .2% of Americans die each year, that would mean 2% * M% = .2% => M% = 10%, and M means the chance of you getting covid *this year* {irrespective of location/demographic/whatever all else}. The assumptions this makes is that the death rate {2%} is accurate and the death amount and population {500k/332M in 2020} are accurate.

These assumptions may be a bit much - the death rate may very well be less than 2% {considering I've heard more than 10% of America got it last year, and 500k people died [rather than more]}, and who knows how accurate the death toll {I've seen reasonable arguments for both overestimated and underestimated}.

Slightly more than people who die from swimming pools. Want some arm floaties?


https://www.stopdrowningnow.org/drow...BoCDKMQAvD_BwE

US Drowning Statistics

In the US, an average of 3,500 to 4,000 people drown per year. That is an average of 10 fatal drownings per day.

Where do you even get your 5k in 3 months number? Is that domestic?

Psh, that's easy. Now try this one:

You have a 10% chance of catching COVID and then you also have a 2% chance of dying. Simple probability, your chances of contracting and then dying from COVID are:

0.10 * 0.02 = 0.002 (or 0.2%)

Assuming the published numbers are true, which is doubtful.