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Forum » UK Covid report: Unvaccinated mortality 10x lower with delta vs orig covid
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Thread: UK Covid report: Unvaccinated mortality 10x lower with delta vs orig covid

post 1644253673 08-04-2021, 11:34 AM
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UK Covid report: Unvaccinated mortality 10x lower with delta vs orig covid

Panicells btfo

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_18.pdf

This is a pdf showing the mortality rate for unvaccinated with the delta variant is 10 times lower than the covid of last year.

This data includes elderly and people at significant risk.

The data also indicates that the vaccinated are less likely to get the disease but more likely to die from it if they do.
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post 1644254863 08-04-2021, 11:52 AM
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Nice, delta variant is substantially less lethal than last years
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post 1644255043 08-04-2021, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
Nice, delta variant is substantially less lethal than last years
I heard someone say mutations generally become less dangerous rather thsn more; that appears to be the case here
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post 1644255123 08-04-2021, 11:55 AM
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I mean by default virus mutations make them far less deadly.

People injecting unknown and untested gene chit are going to be dying from the sniffles next year. The unvaxxed will live their lives like its 2018.
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post 1644255603 08-04-2021, 12:06 PM
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We won't get proper figures for delta, as a lot of the weak were already culled by version 1.2, 2.0 etc

The most important figure re covid in the UK is hospital transmission (I didn't click the link, so I don't know if it's included in there).

40% of people who test positive in hospitals tested negative on admission, making covid the biggest hospital transmitted infection of all time. People go in to hospital with strokes, heart attacks etc and contract covid while in there.
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post 1644255743 08-04-2021, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
The data also indicates that the vaccinated are less likely to get the disease but more likely to die from it if they do.
Not good - I assume it accounts for age and health? Vaccinated people are going to skew older and more at risk.

If it does make it more deadly for them, you'd need to weigh that against the level at which it helps make it less likely to get it. Then also add the hidden/unknown dangers of the vaccine and the risk levels of those individuals. For some, it's entirely likely the vaccine makes them more likely to die.
Originally Posted By DuracellBunny⏩
40% of people who test positive in hospitals tested negative on admission, making covid the biggest hospital transmitted infection of all time. People go in to hospital with strokes, heart attacks etc and contract covid while in there.
And then their deaths are marked as covid.
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post 1644256603 08-04-2021, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted By DuracellBunny⏩
40% of people who test positive in hospitals tested negative on admission, making covid the biggest hospital transmitted infection of all time. People go in to hospital with strokes, heart attacks etc and contract covid while in there.
Source?
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post 1644257043 08-04-2021, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted By JUSA⏩
Not good - I assume it accounts for age and health? Vaccinated people are going to skew older and more at risk.

If it does make it more deadly for them, you'd need to weigh that against the level at which it helps make it less likely to get it. Then also add the hidden/unknown dangers of the vaccine and the risk levels of those individuals. For some, it's entirely likely the vaccine makes them more likely to die.

And then their deaths are marked as covid.
Yup. Anybody who dies within 28 days of a positive test is a covid death. It was 56 days for the first wave and then eventually came down to 28.
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post 1644257693 08-04-2021, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted By JUSA⏩
Not good - I assume it accounts for age and health? Vaccinated people are going to skew older and more at risk.
Nope. Those are just the raw case counts with absolutely nothing accounted for.

The actual risk report which does account for age and other factors found a much higher hospitalization risk for delta over the alpha variant. It also found vaccines were highly effective in reducing risk compared to their risk when unvaccinated.


https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_14.pdf

Also,

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...358-1/fulltext


The footnote stating that CFRs should not be directly compared between variants is there for a good reason.
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post 1644258283 08-04-2021, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted By GaloisTheory⏩
Nope. Those are just the raw case counts with absolutely nothing accounted for.

The actual risk report which does account for age and other factors found a much higher hospitalization risk for delta over the alpha variant. It also found vaccines were highly effective in reducing risk compared to their risk when unvaccinated.


https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_14.pdf

Also,

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...358-1/fulltext


The footnote stating that CFRs should not be directly compared between variants is there for a good reason.
It differentiates between age and vaccination status
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post 1644259513 08-04-2021, 01:09 PM
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you have to think about this as well.

CDC came out saying that the delta "was as transmissible as chicken pox". This makes CFR even more useless. I think there were studies at least in 2020 where the actual number of infections was likely to be 5-10x more than what was being reported. So with delta being more transmissible, what is that number? like 15, 20x more? If this is the case then more hospitalizations is simply a function of more people getting infected. And the actual IFR being lower than that of the alpha variant.
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post 1644264063 08-04-2021, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
The data also indicates that the vaccinated are less likely to get the disease but more likely to die from it if they do.
I don't think you can draw either of those conclusions from the data in the pdf. It lists how many people with both doses of the vaccine tested positive during a period (10,834) and it also lists how many unvaccinated tested positive during the same period (71,932). You still need to know what percentage of the population was vaccinated during that time to draw significant conclusions. If a big percentage of the population was vaccinated during that period you could conclude the vaccine is effective, if the ratio of unvaccinated vs vaccinated was exactly 7:1 you could conclude the vaccine is completely useless, if only a small percentage had been vaccinated you could conclude the vaccine makes it worse.
post 1644266133 08-04-2021, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
It differentiates between age and vaccination status
It does not differentiate between vaccination status. It differentiates between ages as >50 and <50 only. In the case of >50, the CFR for Delta is less half of Alpha (4.8% vs 1.9% - Table 4), but without accounting for vaccination status, it's impossible to say if Delta really is a less severe variant. The virus will eventually mutate to be less severe. It's happened like that in every major pandemic, and it will with this one, too. For the Spanish flu, it took 2 years to happen, though, so we can't say for sure that it should be happening now yet.
post 1644276453 08-04-2021, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted By N0rds⏩
I mean by default virus mutations make them far less deadly.
Factually incorrect.
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post 1644277843 08-04-2021, 06:01 PM
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How many times do these data sets (or any of the UK briefings for that matter) need to be explained? No, these data do not suggest that Delta is less severe. No, pathogens do not always evolve to be less severe. The mutations that increased Delta’s fitness made it more exploitative in the host, not less.
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post 1644278393 08-04-2021, 06:11 PM
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So if I had OG covid and it was very mild, does that mean Delta will actually IMPROVE my health and give me perks or something?
Would kick em in the nuts
post 1644279803 08-04-2021, 06:32 PM
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The inner CTer in me wants to make a bold prediction. The vaccine is causing all of these crazy variants and actually affecting the vaccinated population worse than the non vaxed.
post 1644280223 08-04-2021, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted By ItsJamesthefin⏩
The inner CTer in me wants to make a bold prediction. The vaccine is causing all of these crazy variants and actually affecting the vaccinated population worse than the non vaxed.
post 1644280623 08-04-2021, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
How are you coming up with this?
Because they do not control for any of the variables necessary to make that conclusion.
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post 1644291103 08-04-2021, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
This had been my understanding. Pushing the vaccines will force the virus to evolve around the vacvine
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post 1644294693 08-04-2021, 11:47 PM
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So if I had a 100% survival rate from last year's covid, that means my survival rate is 10x better than that now?

Seems pretty good!
post 1644295163 08-05-2021, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
Panicells btfo

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_18.pdf

This is a pdf showing the mortality rate for unvaccinated with the delta variant is 10 times lower than the covid of last year.

This data includes elderly and people at significant risk.

The data also indicates that the vaccinated are less likely to get the disease but more likely to die from it if they do.
Cannot read reports huh?

“ Case fatality is not comparable across variants as they have peaked at different points in the pandemic, and so vary in background hospital pressure, vaccination availability and rates and case profiles, treatment options, and impact of reporting delay, among other factors.”

In under 50s

70K cases of seeking hospital treatment in unvaccinated (0.93%) vs 5K fully vaccinated (0.07%)

Admission to hospital 633 admitted in unvaccinated vs 33 in vaccinated

Deaths within a month of admission 21 in unvaccinated vs 2 in vaccinated

When you have a smaller group percentage rates are less worth considering but make better headlines,

(One of these would be the 40 year old fit as hell bodybuilder in the guardian article no doubthttps://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-dies-of-covid)
post 1644295233 08-05-2021, 12:02 AM
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Originally Posted By Rabbitjb⏩
Cannot read reports huh?

“ Case fatality is not comparable across variants as they have peaked at different points in the pandemic, and so vary in background hospital pressure, vaccination availability and rates and case profiles, treatment options, and impact of reporting delay, among other factors.”

In under 50s

70K cases of seeking hospital treatment in unvaccinated (0.93%) vs 5K fully vaccinated (0.07%)

Admission to hospital 633 admitted in unvaccinated vs 33 in vaccinated

Deaths within a month of admission 21 in unvaccinated vs 2 in vaccinated

So vaccinated under 50s 0.06% of admitted to hospital cases resulted in death within 28 days

And unvaccinated death rate is doubled to 0.03%

(One of these would be the 40 year old fit as hell bodybuilder in the guardian article no doubthttps://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-dies-of-covid)
23 Deaths for people under 50 huh? Most of whom are obese/overweight or have another comorbidity huh?

Neat.
post 1644295313 08-05-2021, 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted By N0rds⏩
I mean by default virus mutations make them far less deadly.

People injecting unknown and untested gene chit are going to be dying from the sniffles next year. The unvaxxed will live their lives like its 2018.
LOL, no

Where did thst ******** factoid come from

It’s not a truism

Viruses can also mutate to be more deadly
Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
23 Deaths for people under 50 huh? Most of whom are obese/overweight or have another comorbidity huh?

Neat.
What’s neat is that I even linked the triathlete unvaccinated bodybuilder John Eyers who just deded from Covid and will be counted in those stats no doubt

And you would probably be classed as “obese” cos weight of bodybuilders hits that class
post 1644295413 08-05-2021, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted By Rabbitjb⏩
LOL, no

Where did thst ******** factoid come from

It’s not a truism

Viruses can also mutate to be more deadly
23 Deaths for people under 50 huh? Most of whom are obese/overweight or have another comorbidity huh?

Neat.
post 1644295443 08-05-2021, 12:10 AM
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Originally Posted By Rabbitjb⏩
Cannot read reports huh?

“ Case fatality is not comparable across variants as they have peaked at different points in the pandemic, and so vary in background hospital pressure, vaccination availability and rates and case profiles, treatment options, and impact of reporting delay, among other factors.”

In under 50s

70K cases of seeking hospital treatment in unvaccinated (0.93%) vs 5K fully vaccinated (0.07%)

Admission to hospital 633 admitted in unvaccinated vs 33 in vaccinated

Deaths within a month of admission 21 in unvaccinated vs 2 in vaccinated

When you have a smaller group percentage rates are less worth considering but make better headlines,

(One of these would be the 40 year old fit as hell bodybuilder in the guardian article no doubthttps://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-dies-of-covid)
23 deaths vs 2 deaths in 70k infected
Is it statistically relevant ?

Also, what about over 50?
The roles reverse, the vaccinated die at a greater rate than the unvaccinated
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post 1644295503 08-05-2021, 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
23 deaths vs 2 deaths in 70k infected
Is it statistically relevant ?

Also, what about over 50?
The roles reverse, the vaccinated die at a greater rate than the unvaccinated
23 or 2, close enough to zero to say zero IMO
post 1644295563 08-05-2021, 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
23 deaths vs 2 deaths in 70k infected
Is it statistically relevant ?

Also, what about over 50?
The roles reverse, the vaccinated die at a greater rate than the unvaccinated
The over 50 stats are there too, but I thought we didn’t care about old people cos they are worthless anyway

Anybody can catch Covid

Breakthrough cases among fully vaccinated are rare
Hospitalisation cases among this rare group are lower
Once hospitalised based on the smaller numbers of course you get larger percentages

Cos that’s how denominators work

Please stop trying to prove how little you understand, it’s a touch embarrassing
post 1644295613 08-05-2021, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted By Rabbitjb⏩
LOL, no

Where did thst ******** factoid come from

It’s not a truism

Viruses can also mutate to be more deadly



What’s neat is that I even linked the triathlete unvaccinated bodybuilder John Eyers who just deded from Covid and will be counted in those stats no doubt

And you would probably be classed as “obese” cos weight of bodybuilders hits that class
So 1 young bodybuilder (Probably with a bunch of health issues due to abusing AAS) died from it huh?

That's pretty neat.

I think we can all agree you were better liked when you showed your tits and typed less, tbh
post 1644295683 08-05-2021, 12:18 AM
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You have Florida breaking their hospitalizations record
Last year, with nobody vaccinated, they set a record on 7/23

This year, with 50% fully vaccinated and 60% having at least one shot, they break their hospitalization record
Vaccine is supposed to prevent severe illness , right?
Even if the vaccine is 80% effective, which phizer claims, you have 80% of 60% = 48% of the population removed from severe illness
But the record is broken anyways

You could make the argument that the vaccine is statistically ineffective
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