Birth rate dropping below replacement
Not enough young workers to keep economy going
Not enough wealth to support retirees
Same issues as the west, but apparently China is in a far worst position according to this geopolitical scientist. Their innovation has hit a wall. Labor costs have risen sharply and now Mexico is twice a skilled and 3x as cheap as Chinese labor. The Golden Bull has 10 years left “at most.”

But then I’ve heard people like Ray Dalio suggest China is the next global superpower empire which can rule for hundreds of years. So who the fuk knows what to believe.

Interesting video though. BRB checking out the full podcast.

im sure the solution is to import some garbage from africa and the mideast. lmao jews never change

They've been saying this sh/t about China for damn near 30 years now.

PLUS, China is easy to cuck when they're at war. They import most their energy and food via ocean shipping routes, very easy to block.What? The media has been saying the opposite, downfall of the west and China being the new global super power.

AND there are people lik him saying China will collapse.



this has been going on for at least 30 years.



this is the best ANY TIME NOW meme

China reminds me of Japan in the 80's. Media was hyping them up too as the economic power to overtake the USA.

Oh and Japan's rise was even more impressive than China economically.

Japan's rise was a red herring. they were a satelite state of the US. it was impossible for them to overtake the US.


China is the real deal. China's emergence comes at the same time as America's fall. This is the most important aspect. China is completely independant and makes decisions AGAINST the US. In many incremental ways causing the American downfall.


the biggest one currently is China successfully established BRICS and moved the rest of the world off of the Petro-dollar.

this is the biggest move of our life time. USD can no longer be printed irresponsibly. this is why just as BRICS moved off of petrodollar. They started raising interest rates.

I know nothing about China but this guy's views on other things in the interview (e.g. on crypto) were garbage and glowed quite a bit, so I'd take it all with a pinch of salt.

I work with a lot of Chinese people in tech

They are definitely taking over

We'll see how that turns out.

Saudi Arabia wasn't that fond of making the Yuan the new reserve currency though...

Mental illness lol.

Yup

Recently, the term "bai lan " or “let it rot” has become popular among young people in China. Prior to this trend, it was “tang ping” or “lying flat.”
On the Chinese social media platform Weibo, topics related to "bai lan" have generated hundreds of millions of reads and discussions since March 2022.
Frustrated by the growing uncertainty and lack of economic opportunities, young Chinese are resorting to this new buzzword, bai lan, to express their attitude toward life.
It means voluntarily giving up the pursuit of life goals because they realize that they are simply unattainable. "Someone has to be a loser. Why not me?" It has become the iconic slogan of the "waste" group. Similar Chinese expressions include "to smash a cracked pot"or "dead pigs are not afraid of boiling water."



https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/...t_28183839.htm

30 million Chinese men to be wifeless over the next 30 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China

China's population is aging faster than almost all other countries in modern history.

This dude is full of ****.

"How do you know all this?"

"Joe, we have bugs in all their offices. We listen to every single conversation!!"

lmao America is more likely to collapse

Rotter culture, hopefully it latches on hard

Yuan doesn't have to be the reserve currency.


in a fair global trades market, the golden bull will default to #1 due to sheer size and productivity.



America was #1 solely based on the world reserve currency status which allowed Americans to print money without a care. JUST MOVING USD off the reserve currency status unseats America economically at the top spot.

it will never latch on as hard as in America. LMFAO a complete welfare state with 3rd world population.


There is no welfare in China. you either starve or work.

Stay hungry bai lan

iq of peace

They'll change policies if something is not working. Plenty of ways to keep it surviving.

Guy was making chit up the whole time and Joe didn't even pull him up on it.

No, there haven't been people saying China would collapse soon for 30 years. At most there were people saying previously that it was unsustainable, and that the CCP itself would be revolted against. That's not nearly the same thing as what Zeihan is saying.

I've caught a few of his lectures, where he has graphs and other visual aids that prove his points further. And BTW, "collapse" or "going away" just means China fades from geopolitical stature. The demographic changes are fascinating. Everything out of China is rather opaque so getting the truth about anything, including their actual population is difficult. At best their population has already begun shrinking, and will do so at an accelerated rate so that they lose hundreds of millions in the next couple of decades. They allow virtually no immigration because they want to remain pure Chinese and as they've urbanized at such a fast rate the fertility rate is headed to below 1. It's in all likelihood barely above that now. China has a strong long-term future, but it won't begin realizing it until some time in the later part of this century. Until then there's going to be a lot of large scale problems that cause them to fade in significance. Xi seems fine with countries pulling out manufacturing, in the hopes that domestic goods and services can pull them into an advanced economy. But that's unlikely, and China will then remain in the middle income trap. The strongest geopolitical weapons China has right now is exploiting Africa for resources and collateralizing debt through infrastructure projects into political favors. Those will help, but so many other factors will override those exploitations.

China will never have the dominant global currency under CCP rule, if it was a pure liberal economy then yes they could have a fair shot. For wanting to have the global curreny, people and countries need to have confidence in your country and system, absolutely not the case for China.

Wasn't Katya saying China was doomed to collapse soon about a year ago or so?

That was just with regards to one point(Xi being ever more isolated). I do think it’s very likely we can gather information about tons of stuff regarding their agenda via electronic surveillance. That being said, it’s quite possible we aren’t as tapped into China as we are we others, and not as much as he makes it seem. Still, we are tapped in and I think his point of Ci isolating himself is valid. He makes lots of interesting points with regards to global issues and policies we can expect to see unfold over the next decade and is obviously more informed on the macro aspect of it all than anyone here. Still, I’d be interested to see his predictions from the past and see how they’ve played out.

yes there has been. I've been reading about China's collapse since I was in elementary school in the news paper.




30 years of copium

Can you give a few examples of the stuff he was making up?

Although I don't agree with Zeihan on demographics being so catastrophic as he says. Sure your GDP will decline but it will give a lot of breathing room again for people, wages will have to go up, etc and it will also create space to reinvent your economy.

In the 14th centry Europe was literally decimated thanks to the plague and lost 50% of its people, next century the Renaissance happened and Europe started to dominate the world.

you are coping.



but as of right now, in reality, USA being moved off reserve currency status is a start. US money printing in the last decade has gone completely insane at the expense of everyone else in the world.

There cannot be a worst reserve currency holder than America.


China could be a welcome change. we shall see.

GDP will not decline as wages rise.

Chinse are moving into more high tech and innovation.


the population was only needed for cheap labor and that's being offloaded to SEA and Africa.

I heard him speak on another podcast before this one a year or so ago and he apparently has been pretty accurate on whats happening today