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Quick Navigation Bottom Misc
Forum » What battleground states can Trump realistically flip that he lost in 2020?

View Poll Results: Which states can Trump flip in 2024?

Voters: 21.
He will flip enough states to win
7 33%
Georgia
8 38%
He will lose a state or more
2 9%
Michican
5 23%
Pennsylvania
7 33%
Wisconsin
6 28%
Arizona
8 38%
He will flip no states
5 23%
Nevada
8 38%
He will flip some states, but not enough to win
1 4%
  1. Results 1 to 30 of 30
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Thread: What battleground states can Trump realistically flip that he lost in 2020?

post 1689604583 09-06-2023, 05:00 AM
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What battleground states can Trump realistically flip that he lost in 2020?

He lost to Biden in 6 key states that wound up deciding the election - PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV.

All of Trump's candidates failed in those states in 2022.

Which of these states can possibly be different for him in 2024, and why? Can he possibly flip enough to win?
post 1689605223 09-06-2023, 05:29 AM
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I can see maybe Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. But those are two huge maybes.

I can only see him doing as bad or worse than 2020 in the rest.

Realistically the electoral map will probably look identical to 2020.
post 1689607963 09-06-2023, 06:54 AM
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None of them, Wisconsin and MI are bluer today than they were in '20. Look at the recent election results.

Hell AZ is probably bluer too.

But I guess the guy who's caught 90+ charges, incited his deplorable horde to attack our capital, and cries daily about The Big Lie seems more electable now?

Cultist are so funny. They can't grasp the fact that everyone but them hates Trump. And their numbers ain't big and getting bigly smaller by the day.

Love this for them.
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post 1689608113 09-06-2023, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted By ArnoldLibCuck⏩
He lost to Biden in 6 key states that wound up deciding the election - PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV.

All of Trump's candidates failed in those states in 2022.

Which of these states can possibly be different for him in 2024, and why? Can he possibly flip enough to win?
A GOP candidate other than Trump can flip all of those except probably PA and MI, especially against Biden. Trump will flip none of them.
post 1689608223 09-06-2023, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted By Jayarbie⏩
A GOP candidate other than Trump can flip all of those except probably PA and MI, especially against Biden. Trump will flip none of them.
Not WI. That's solid blue now. See current election results. WI is getting younger and better educated.

Which is like poison to republicans.
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post 1689608493 09-06-2023, 07:08 AM
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None. Everyone of the major cities in those states will come in later with “miraculously”, enough votes to pull through.


I expect 99%+ voter turn out in every major city. :wow:!
post 1689608793 09-06-2023, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Not WI. That's solid blue now. See current election results. WI is getting younger and better educated.

Which is like poison to republicans.
WI can flip to the Republicans. Especially with Brandon as the Democratic candidate. The statewide elections are all super close there. It's definitely purple.

Blumpf will likely not flip it though.
post 1689608833 09-06-2023, 07:15 AM
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AZ, GA, WI ... he barely lose these states last time.

PA is a possibility if he expands on his urban gains. Possibly, a rightward swing in the NYC metro-area might rub off in Philly

Michigan is possible, but if he takes Michigan, it's likely he already has 270.

Nevada is too small to make much difference

NH, Maine, and Minnesota are long-shots
post 1689608903 09-06-2023, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted By John
WI can flip to the Republicans. The statewide elections are all super close there. It's definitely purple.

Blumpf will likely not flip it though.
Look at the last state supreme court vote. WI will bigly vote against the abortion banning party.

In fact, banning abortion will be on the ticket as much as Trump and Biden (hopefully not Biden...). The country has seen what republicans do when they're given free reign...ban abortions.
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post 1689608983 09-06-2023, 07:17 AM
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For those that think Trump has a chance.

Have/will the voting age demographics changed since 2020? If so, what party do those changes favor?

I got sum bad newz boyos...
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post 1689609073 09-06-2023, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Look at the last state supreme court vote. WI will bigly vote against the abortion banning party.

In fact, banning abortion will be on the ticket as much as Trump and Biden (hopefully not Biden...). The country has seen what republicans do when they're given free reign...ban abortions.
The liberal judge outspent the conservative judge in that race by $6 million, and the conservative judge was just a bad candidate - that same judge lost by 11% in 2020 too

And that supreme court race had a far lower turnout than the presidential election will have
post 1689609123 09-06-2023, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
For those that think Trump has a chance.

Have/will the voting age demographics changed since 2020? If so, what party do those changes favor?

I got sum bad newz boyos...
Biden's net favorables in 2020 were +5-10%. His favorables now are -14%. He's lost a lot of supporters from last time. His RCP average of favorables right now are worse than Hillary's in 2016
post 1689609173 09-06-2023, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Look at the last state supreme court vote. WI will bigly vote against the abortion banning party.

In fact, banning abortion will be on the ticket as much as Trump and Biden (hopefully not Biden...). The country has seen what republicans do when they're given free reign...ban abortions.
I wouldn't call Wisconsin solid blue just because of one state supreme court election. The GOP nominee was the same guy who ran for state supreme court in 2020 and lost then with the exact same vote share. These more localized, off year elections aren't exactly the best for judging how a presidential election would go. (but they shouldn't be completely ignored either)

Like I said, I doubt Blumpf will do it, but with the drooling idiot as the incumbent, Wisconsin is definitely more in play than some other swing states.
post 1689609203 09-06-2023, 07:21 AM
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Originally Posted By DanteEdmond⏩
The liberal judge outspent the conservative judge in that race by $6 million, and the conservative judge was just a bad candidate - that same judge lost by 11% in 2020 too

And that supreme court race had a far lower turnout than the presidential election will have
Banning abortion was the issue. It will always be an issue with republicans.

The voting demo is getting much younger and better educated.

Ding dong the republican party is dead (except for their chithole poor and dumb states which they can have).

Love this for them.
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post 1689609293 09-06-2023, 07:23 AM
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Originally Posted By DanteEdmond⏩
Biden's net favorables in 2020 were +5-10%. His favorables now are -14%. He's lost a lot of supporters from last time. His RCP average of favorables right now are worse than Hillary's in 2016
Remember that he had to bring down Trumpflation and that's just been brought under control. In another year everything will appear normal. And Biden's unfavorables are largely age related. Believe me, I hope he doesn't run.

Long long time until the election boyo. The future news is nothing but bad for Trump.

And don't forget, republicans will ban abortion. Gals will hold their nose and vote for whatever dem to not let this happen.
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post 1689609403 09-06-2023, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Banning abortion was the issue. It will always be an issue with republicans.

The voting demo is getting much younger and better educated.

Ding dong the republican party is dead (except for their chithole poor and dumb states which they can have).

Love this for them.
Not true. What Dodds did was make Democrats more pro-choice, and none of those people were going to vote Republican in the first place, abortion or not.

The amount of pro-life support from Republicans and Republican-leaners has not changed. Republicans have not lost anyone

post 1689609473 09-06-2023, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted By DanteEdmond⏩
Not true. What Dodds did was make Democrats more pro-choice, and none of those people were going to vote Republican in the first place, abortion or not.

The amount of pro-life support from Republicans and Republican-leaners has not changed. Republicans have not lost anyone

So you're saying that republicans banning abortion don't impact elections? Have you been asleep the last 2 years?

And of course republicans don't change, but there's another group your little graphs left off...
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post 1689610823 09-06-2023, 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
For those that think Trump has a chance.

Have/will the voting age demographics changed since 2020? If so, what party do those changes favor?

I got sum bad newz boyos...
Trump is beating Biden in battleground polls now. Biden is 4 years older and even most Dems think he should be replaced. The youth vote is abandoning the Dems, Donna Brazille was sounding the alarm about that the other day.

2020 was a weird election where people were exhausted due to Covid and all the Russia Russia stuff. many felt Biden would turn the page, but now they see that wasn't the case. Biden would lose worse than Hillary did at this point. But it will be Trump vs Newsom most likely
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post 1689611073 09-06-2023, 08:02 AM
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I dont know the exact numbers in 2020, but in 2016 WI had 500K working class whites that didnt vote, if even a small % shows up thats enough to keep the state Red for a while.

The GOP needs to get out of the abortion game and simply argue for common sense restrictions once a pregnancy reaches a certain point, which most agree with.

The media is able to muddle the waters with abortion that you have the following occurring in...Montana.

Montana voters rejected a ballot initiative during the midterm elections that would have mandated that infants who are born alive, including those who survive botched abortions, are legal persons entitled to life-saving medical care.
post 1689613563 09-06-2023, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted By John
I can see maybe Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. But those are two huge maybes.

I can only see him doing as bad or worse than 2020 in the rest.

Realistically the electoral map will probably look identical to 2020.
The knock on trump in 2020 was the COVID pandemic and wanting a “return to normal” where the media wasn’t in hysterics.

Biden has been a disaster and the media is still hysterical about trump, so people will no longer be voting for Biden with the expectation of the media returning to normal or democrat policies actually working… debating against another Biden term is easy pickings.
post 1689618443 09-06-2023, 10:37 AM
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Nevada, Georgia, maybe Pennsylvania. As I just said in another thread all that's required is a lower voter turnout, with apathetic Dems not bothering to vote. It wouldn't be a ringing endorsement of Trump, rather a big "meh" over Biden.
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post 1689618523 09-06-2023, 10:39 AM
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doubt he lost more than one of those six states in 2020.

at least one of them will also take him off the ballot in 2024 citing some bullchit
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post 1689653843 09-06-2023, 10:34 PM
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PA just elected a guy to the Senate who literally can't speak properly anymore after they knew it was a problem, and you guys think they won't vote for Biden again?

Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
None of them, Wisconsin and MI are bluer today than they were in '20. Look at the recent election results.

Hell AZ is probably bluer too.

But I guess the guy who's caught 90+ charges, incited his deplorable horde to attack our capital, and cries daily about The Big Lie seems more electable now?

Cultist are so funny. They can't grasp the fact that everyone but them hates Trump. And their numbers ain't big and getting bigly smaller by the day.

Love this for them.
Relentlessly using the word "cultist" over and over again to describe anyone who would dare even remotely consider voting for Trump makes you look like a total idiot.
post 1689655273 09-06-2023, 11:22 PM
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40,000 votes separated the 2 nominees in 2020

MI,PA had some serious dodgy election rules that will be fixed. And mail in should be cleaned up.

It will literally come down to momentum from very minor articles/points 3-5 days before election that will sway like 0.01% of the population.
post 1689672423 09-07-2023, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted By aal04⏩
40,000 votes separated the 2 nominees in 2020

MI,PA had some serious dodgy election rules that will be fixed. And mail in should be cleaned up.

It will literally come down to momentum from very minor articles/points 3-5 days before election that will sway like 0.01% of the population.
What have the liberal run states of MI and PA done to fix issues with their voting systems?

Georgia got slammed relentlessly for passing voter integrity laws in 2021, and Trump's guy Herschel Walker still couldn't beat a pretty lame candidate in Raphael Warnock. His candidate also lost to a guy who can barely speak in PA in 2022.

I feel like there's a lot of blind hope for 2024 among conservatives here. I want to believe, but I've seen no logic here as to what makes people think 2024 will be different from 2020.
post 1689672823 09-07-2023, 09:08 AM
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I can see him flipping Pa because of the drug crisis in Philly, and i can see him flipping AZ because of the border crisis.

Other than that the MSM have a lock on the rest of the states
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post 1689673023 09-07-2023, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted By bluebeltATT⏩
I can see him flipping Pa because of the drug crisis in Philly, and i can see him flipping AZ because of the border crisis.

Other than that the MSM have a lock on the rest of the states
Blumpf is deeply, deeply unpopular Philly and the Philly suburbs. They HATE him there.

The only way he can win PA is by squeezing blood from a stone out of the rural areas like he did in 2016. But there was also Gary Johnson on the ballot in 2016, who played a bit of a spoiler. He only won PA by like 40k votes against Hilldawg. Brandon performs better in the rural areas than Hilldawg. Even if he only wins rural counties by a couple percentage higher than Hilldawg did, that's all it takes to make up that deficit. Plus Philly suburbs just keep getting bluer and bluer. It's going to be tough.

AZ also hates Blumpf a lot. Both of his endorsed candidates were rejected last year. It was a reliably red state, and he only won it by 3% in 2016.
post 1689673053 09-07-2023, 09:13 AM
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none of them if we are being fully honest with ourselves.


i hope i am wrong.
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post 1689677053 09-07-2023, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted By Mountaineer92⏩
none of them if we are being fully honest with ourselves.


i hope i am wrong.
You are wrong 99.999% of the time.

This is one of those "blind squirrel find nuts" times.

LMFAO
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post 1689677983 09-07-2023, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted By RIKTER⏩
I dont know the exact numbers in 2020, but in 2016 WI had 500K working class whites that didnt vote, if even a small % shows up thats enough to keep the state Red for a while.

The GOP needs to get out of the abortion game and simply argue for common sense restrictions once a pregnancy reaches a certain point, which most agree with.

The media is able to muddle the waters with abortion that you have the following occurring in...Montana.

Montana voters rejected a ballot initiative during the midterm elections that would have mandated that infants who are born alive, including those who survive botched abortions, are legal persons entitled to life-saving medical care.
Republicucks give no reason for those 500k working class whites to vote for them. They offer nothing and deliver even less.
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