Tighter credit conditions even than during the pandemic.







Cliffs:Banks don't want to lend any money. George attributes this to counterparty risk.


C'mon soft landing.


What If America's Economic Growth Is Fake?







https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-...ic-growth-fake

People don't realize just how much money was pumped into the economy during Covid. That money along with the locked in low interest rates on most people's housing is going to take a long time to fully get sucked out.

Still probably 6 more months until rates begin dropping. But there's going to be a lot of pain for people at the bottom during the last couple of those months.

Yeah they robbed the future hard during COVID. We're going to spend decades paying everything back and everyone is going to suffer

Libtards are too preoccupied with pronouns to think about the economy though

This. Or they do it again this coming election and explode it even worse, which is what I think will happen. Need to mail in votes so

Explain this to me like I'm 5

There were $6T dropped into the US in stimulus during Covid. Divided by 340 Million people, this means there was about $18,000 per person pumped into the economy.

There are still plenty of places in the US where you can live for basically noting, so give a family of 5 $100k, and they don't have to work for a long time. This combined with the higher pay and good job market is making the market very resilient.

However, we can see that during the last 30 days, this is finally showing signs of breaking down and people are finally running of of money and going back to the job market. Unemployment will increase during the next 12 months. Add student loan repayment and the end to other perks, and we will finally be back to a relatively normal place again in 6 months.

Ah makes sense. Repped

Is there a time in history that we know of where you pair a fiat system with modern technology? Then add on top of that it’s global reserve position. We’re in uncharted territory.

We’re even past the fiat stage, we have fiat of fiat. We don’t have the dollars to back the digital numbers.

I’d say we effectively have CBDC and all that’s left is to pull the plug on physical cash.

People pricing in counterparty risk can actually healthy and implies no endless bailouts for everybody.TLDR is that money has been devalued. And so has labor.

^^^
Interview with Rafi Farber on the present currency system.




He goes through the origination and transformation of the US$. Believes in holding gold as an asset to maintain wealth and having small silver coins for transactions.

Goldbugs are ridiculed regularly. OTOH central banks have been on a gold buying spree.

It's even worse because some households didn't end up savings anything and others saved a lot. Plus the ones who saved money own assets like real estate and stocks and these appreciated. They basically didn't need this help.

Hence, the rich got richer at the expense of the poor without doing any work. In the US and Canada, the top 50% is doing fairly well and the bottom 25% is barely hanging on. US Fed and Statistics Canada publishes stats on these.

Here is one from the US Fed on net worth:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...tribute/chart/

Should also add that older people tend to be wealthier so it was just a giant gift for them. Young people and others without substantial assets got totally screwed since their labor has been devalued. In many places, people will not be able to buy a house without parental help.

Recession was about to hit anytime now...for years now.

Everyone talks about economy being **** yet most business is doing good.

Really? There have certainly been a lot of layoffs and reports of poor results.

This guy tracks spending and it's still nuts:

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/31/ou...-you-see-that/

and other macro indicators:

https://wolfstreet.com/category/all/...street-report/

Zerohedge used to be good, but there is lots of doom porn now. Before they posted proper analysis from IB banks. Plus they correctly pointed out what a disaster QE is (well before everybody realized it).

Now there is lots of stuff with varying quality. Some of it (or even most) is still good, but some is just straight clickbait.

EDIT: There should be layoffs because inflation is not coming down otherwise. And if inflation is not coming down, then it will stick to a value well above the 2% target rate.

That one sloot at the federal reserve already predicted a soft landing.

That means a recession is coming.

It just means more rate hikes. A recession is necessary. Of course politicians won't say that one is needed.

Yeah, that's the game pretty much. No politician will ever say they want high interest rates.

Bond market says they are done hiking:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...n-to-fomc.html

but a much bigger questions is when they'll start cutting and how fast.

the future is impossible to predict. things happen when we least expect it and for different reasons than we expect. when it comes to predictions - nobody knows nuthin.

Bond market has been sadly wrong during this entire debacle.

I spent years almost never looking at ZH. They are long time doomers, no doubt. The last time I followed posts there was prior to and just after the 2008 event.

I believe we ARE in uncharted territory. That doesn't mean that ZH has an inside track, it's just that they re-post a lot of stuff that isn't otherwise available without having a lot of paid subscriptions which I don't have.
Bond markets have been saying that for a while. The pieces don't fit neatly together.

- to halt inflation the traditional wisdom was that the Fed must hike interest rates above the rate of inflation

- we aren't anywhere near having rates that high

- bonds are screaming that rates have to come down

- we still face inflationary headwinds; expensive energy due to contracted supply [Russia embargo, OPEC cuts, US killing leases, depleted US strategic reserve] all points towards higher prices and lack of GDP growth

^^^
raising interest rates may destroy consumers and businesses without reigning in price inflation driven by high energy prices and lack of supply of some necessary goods like food and housing

OTOH

increasing inflation via very low rates would in theory kill the US$





The REAL economy has to kick in eventually right? As opposed to the funky fake official government economy?

ZH is just an aggregator, so there's going to be a lot of garbage on there.

"An investor who was featured in the film The Big Short after he correctly bet on the housing market collapse in 2008 has now predicted that a Wall Street crash will take place by the end of this year.

Michael Burry, played by Christian Bale in the 2015 film directed by Adam McKay, is reported to have bet more than $1.6bn (£1.25bn) on the event happening in 2023.

Security Exchange Commission filings released on Monday show that he has taken out negative options on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 – both of which are representative of the US economy at large.

Mr Burry is reported by CNN to be using more than 90 per cent of his portfolio to bet on the market downturn.

His fund, Scion Asset Management, was shown to have bought large stakes in put options against both stock-market indexes. Put options give the right to sell an asset at a particular price".

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2395947.html

In on bi-monthly "a reseshin gon happiness dis tahm furreal" thread

I think we are already living in a **** economy so w/e lol

[QUOTE=katya422 post_id=1689889203][img]https://karlbarthfordummies.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/here-be-dragons.jpg[/]


[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/embed/bzGMhWqbXPo[/youtube]

^^^
Interview with Rafi Farber on the present currency system.

[img]https://i..com/2obG3rH.png[]


He goes through the origination and transformation of the US$. Believes in holding gold as an asset to maintain wealth and having small silver coins for transactions.

Goldbugs are ridiculed regularly. OTOH central banks have been on a gold buying spree.[/QUOTE]Good video

What will people need representative money for then? I'll trade water for silver because?

6 months. lol

Because you have excess water and want silver?

- intrinsic value

- easy to carry/weigh

Just checked and saw a spot price of .74 per ounce for silver so a silver dime would be worth a little under $2 and a silver dollar would be worth a little under $18. Makes silver much more reasonable for regular transactions.

So if someone gave you a silver dime for 2 gallons of water that would be roughly $1 a gallon.

ETA: also fun...this means that if our currency was at least backed by silver then our federal minimum wage of $7.25 would be about $130 an hour in our nearly destroyed funny money...as in the US$ has lost 97% of its purchasing power.



Using silver dimes w/current spot price:

1938: $5

1939: $6

1945: $8

1950: $15

^^^
See 1950.

It went up to $1 in 1956 > $20 an hour.