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Oil To $150 A Barrel Within A Year???
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09-19-2023, 07:21 AM
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#1
Oil To $150 A Barrel Within A Year???
I hope not.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inves...100041435.html
Take Away:
Get ahead where you can. Book those plane tickets for holiday/winter travel early. Do your holiday shopping sooner. You can always hang on to receipts and return/exchange if you want to chase a better deal.
According to the IEA, the International Energy Agency:
“China, India and Southeast Asian countries together are expected to account for three out of every four tonnes of coal consumed worldwide in 2023.”
From the article: “Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023.”
The IEA is not some pay-play NGO, it is a global institution.
This implication is obvious; developing countries are not going to crucify themselves on a cross of sustainability. After all these years of accords, dramatic predictions, plans and - in the developed world - giant shifts in policy, developing countries have embraced cheap energy with both hands as a guarantee of their ascendancy.
It’s hard not to slip from being dispassionate about this situation but the magnitude of the facts speak for themselves.
As oil is a ‘less worse’ source of CO2 than dirty and sometimes very dirty coal, oil has no chance of becoming an ‘orphan’ source of energy. As developing countries grow (as they will at a dramatic pace) so will their thirst for energy. With these countries’ GDP per head only a fraction of their potential, their energy needs are also only a fraction of what they will be, and these needs will grow in parallel with their economies. Fortunately for them - and unfortunately for plans for ‘Net Zero’ - there is no shortage of coal and likely never will be, with enough already found for half a millennium.
This means, at the very least, business as usual for oil and that likely means $300 a barrel.
******
The $300 a barrel number comes from taking the 2008 high and adding on the average US energy inflation of the last 60 years. You could also add the rolling inflation of the next two or three years on top for good measure but let’s not worry about the exact number. The time frame is three-to-five years.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/463...llars-a-barrel“China, India and Southeast Asian countries together are expected to account for three out of every four tonnes of coal consumed worldwide in 2023.”
From the article: “Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023.”
The IEA is not some pay-play NGO, it is a global institution.
This implication is obvious; developing countries are not going to crucify themselves on a cross of sustainability. After all these years of accords, dramatic predictions, plans and - in the developed world - giant shifts in policy, developing countries have embraced cheap energy with both hands as a guarantee of their ascendancy.
It’s hard not to slip from being dispassionate about this situation but the magnitude of the facts speak for themselves.
As oil is a ‘less worse’ source of CO2 than dirty and sometimes very dirty coal, oil has no chance of becoming an ‘orphan’ source of energy. As developing countries grow (as they will at a dramatic pace) so will their thirst for energy. With these countries’ GDP per head only a fraction of their potential, their energy needs are also only a fraction of what they will be, and these needs will grow in parallel with their economies. Fortunately for them - and unfortunately for plans for ‘Net Zero’ - there is no shortage of coal and likely never will be, with enough already found for half a millennium.
This means, at the very least, business as usual for oil and that likely means $300 a barrel.
******
The $300 a barrel number comes from taking the 2008 high and adding on the average US energy inflation of the last 60 years. You could also add the rolling inflation of the next two or three years on top for good measure but let’s not worry about the exact number. The time frame is three-to-five years.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inves...100041435.html
Take Away:
Get ahead where you can. Book those plane tickets for holiday/winter travel early. Do your holiday shopping sooner. You can always hang on to receipts and return/exchange if you want to chase a better deal.
INTP Crew
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09-19-2023, 07:23 AM
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#2
09-19-2023, 07:35 AM
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#3
Originally Posted By BrahMike⏩
If your gas prices are $4 or $5 a gallon now what would your weekly spend look like if they are $6 to $8 a gallon?Reeeeaalllllllyyy tryna push them EV's
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09-19-2023, 07:38 AM
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#4
- hendrixfreak70
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- hendrixfreak70
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
I'm going to start walking to a lot of places. Dead serious. Car pooling when having to go further than work/home. Fortunately for me, I only live 2.8 miles from work/church. I live about three miles from Walmart. Time to start prepping again it seems.If your gas prices are $4 or $5 a gallon now what would your weekly spend look like if they are $6 to $8 a gallon?
09-19-2023, 07:48 AM
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#5
09-19-2023, 07:58 AM
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#6
09-19-2023, 08:14 AM
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#7
- Narrator02
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- Narrator02
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Scare tactics....they say this annually
09-19-2023, 08:17 AM
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#8
- stevebec
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- stevebec
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So far, so good. Boss just signed 2 more contracts with Saudi Aramco. Sorry about your gas prices, but daddy needs a beach house.
"Bones heal, pain is temporary, and chicks dig scars" - Evel Knievel
09-19-2023, 08:19 AM
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#9
- phaginator
- Ayyy lmao
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- phaginator
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America should start up fracking again
09-19-2023, 08:34 AM
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#10
- ParsleyTea
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- ParsleyTea
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That would suck. Inflation is bad enough as it is.
09-19-2023, 08:38 AM
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#11
- cobhc
- Structural Engineer Brah
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- cobhc
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Originally Posted By ****inator⏩
You should support more sanctions against Russia while I bang your mail order wife, you imbecile retard.America should start up fracking again
NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
RED BULL RACING
09-19-2023, 08:39 AM
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#12
09-19-2023, 08:44 AM
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#13
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I'm certainly not cheering for it. Just seeing it forecast in a few different places.Sounds a bit too optimistic for the O&G bulls
Saudi Arabia wants oil at $95 tho
Saudi Arabia wants oil at $95 tho
The International Energy Agency could totally be wrong, but they aren't fringe/doomers.
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09-19-2023, 08:47 AM
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#14
- phaginator
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Originally Posted By cobhc⏩
LMFAO at this vatnik living in america paying taxes to fund ukraine like the cuckold he is, seethe more ruski diaspora cuck.You should support more sanctions against Russia while I bang your mail order wife, you imbecile retard.
09-19-2023, 08:47 AM
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#15
- cobhc
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- cobhc
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Originally Posted By ****inator⏩
Brutal cause it's true and I can't do chit about it.LMFAO at this vatnik living in america paying taxes to fund ukraine like the cuckold he is, seethe more ruski diaspora cuck.
NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
RED BULL RACING
09-19-2023, 08:49 AM
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#16
- Destor
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
The IEA thinks those prices are coming?I'm certainly not cheering for it. Just seeing it forecast in a few different places.
The International Energy Agency could totally be wrong, but they aren't fringe/doomers.
The International Energy Agency could totally be wrong, but they aren't fringe/doomers.
There are always mega bulls and mega bears on either side of something, people who own O&G investments hope the price continues going up and will concoct a narrative to support it. I'm not even trying to predict where prices will go.
09-19-2023, 08:51 AM
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#17
09-19-2023, 08:52 AM
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#18
- FAPhaggot
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Demand destruction hit last year around $100/bbl, and the economies around the world are sagging right now. I think the Saudis are going to keep it around $90 for a while, with more room to go lower than higher.
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09-19-2023, 08:57 AM
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#19
- looxmatter
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- looxmatter
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As a contrarian I think oil prices will drop because the economy will be slowing down. they'll reach 70-75$ a barrel by EOY.
Just a prediction!
Just a prediction!
09-19-2023, 09:01 AM
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#20
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Not directly per se. The Seeking Alpha article has charts which are supposed to be supported by the IEA report on coal usage.The IEA thinks those prices are coming?
There are always mega bulls and mega bears on either side of something, people who own O&G investments hope the price continues going up and will concoct a narrative to support it. I'm not even trying to predict where prices will go.
There are always mega bulls and mega bears on either side of something, people who own O&G investments hope the price continues going up and will concoct a narrative to support it. I'm not even trying to predict where prices will go.
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
I suppose it will depend on how oil producing countries adjust their supply with falling demand.Demand destruction hit last year around $100/bbl, and the economies around the world are sagging right now. I think the Saudis are going to keep it around $90 for a while, with more room to go lower than higher.
Traditionally we expect falling demand to lead to falling prices. However it seems that some producers have cottoned on to doing better by cutting their supply as demand falls and therefore keeping a good margin on their product. See: automakers
Originally Posted By looxmatter⏩
See above.As a contrarian I think oil prices will drop because the economy will be slowing down. they'll reach 70-75$ a barrel by EOY.
Just a prediction!
Just a prediction!
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09-19-2023, 09:13 AM
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#21
- Destor
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- Destor
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It’s really Saudi Arabia that is controlling production, the US is producing more barrels than ever before and so is Canada. Granted our two countries could be producing even more if it weren’t for all the regulatory and enviro red tape, but North America has never produced more oil than we are right now.
However the world also seems to be consuming more than ever, and the recent oil price declines were supported by releases from the US strategic petroleum reserve that is now at levels it hadn’t been at since the 1980s
However the world also seems to be consuming more than ever, and the recent oil price declines were supported by releases from the US strategic petroleum reserve that is now at levels it hadn’t been at since the 1980s
09-19-2023, 12:50 PM
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#22
- BigDaddyBiceps
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- BigDaddyBiceps
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Ok, so heading into recession with demand soon to fall the Saudis are going to cut production so heavily to hit $150 a barrel causing the upcoming recession to become a depression crashing the world economy and tanking the market they have trillion+ in to kill their investments....
So they can make a little bit more on their price per unit while sinking the volume.
I just don't see it, tbh.
So they can make a little bit more on their price per unit while sinking the volume.
I just don't see it, tbh.
09-19-2023, 12:57 PM
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#23
- imbeingcereal
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- imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Probably between 1.2-2x higher than they currently are ♂️If your gas prices are $4 or $5 a gallon now what would your weekly spend look like if they are $6 to $8 a gallon?
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