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Forum » Fed Reserve - interest rates going forward
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Thread: Fed Reserve - interest rates going forward

post 1690428723 09-21-2023, 10:54 AM
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Fed Reserve - interest rates going forward

A quick summary from yesterday:

-one more rate hike before the end of this year
-rates being dropped 1-1.5% around the middle of 2024

So tards who think we'll see 3% mortgages again from banks are delusional. More like 5.5% to 6% in 2024-25. Commercial real estate is going to continue its slow motion crash, especially in the bluest cities as rates reset. Other loans will have medium to high interest rates for years to come. On the upside millions more Baby Boomers than expected retired during the pandemic so job openings will likely remain high even if we have a recession (bizarro world conditions).
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post 1690431113 09-21-2023, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
I'm not so sure they drop rates next year. Why do another rate hike, then lower it 6 months later? Makes more sense to sustain the rates for a year.

Which is unfortunate because I am looking to purchase two more homes next year and the interest rates + potential future refinance costs make me second guess the purchases.
Why? We want higher interest rates. You take the hit on a few years of monthly payments and then refinance down the line with a higher home value.
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post 1690431133 09-21-2023, 11:34 AM
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A return to a degree of normalcy is good. Borrowing is supposed to cost something. It ensures more quality businesses and better innovation.

The funny money era of near zero rates was bizarre, and it's ultimately bad in the long run for people (particularly everyday consumers) to get used to such a macro environment.

I imagine the cat is out of the bag now however and we will be back to it given a bit of time.
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post 1690431303 09-21-2023, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
I'm not so sure they drop rates next year. Why do another rate hike, then lower it 6 months later? Makes more sense to sustain the rates for a year.

Which is unfortunate because I am looking to purchase two more homes next year and the interest rates + potential future refinance costs make me second guess the purchases.
You don't know jack, Jack.

Raising or lowering rates at this point is like pissing in the wind. You think you're doing a good job of spraying just the spot you're pissing on, but then a strong gust comes along and blows it all over the guy standing next you.

And when I say guy standing next to you I'm talking about your mom.
post 1690433073 09-21-2023, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
I'm not so sure they drop rates next year. Why do another rate hike, then lower it 6 months later? Makes more sense to sustain the rates for a year.

Which is unfortunate because I am looking to purchase two more homes next year and the interest rates + potential future refinance costs make me second guess the purchases.
We'll see. The forecast so far is another rate hike of 25 bps, then small rate decreases around the middle of next year, then keeping rates flat for awhile afterward. Basically expect early 2023 rates to be the rates for the latter half of 2024 through 2025. Normal rates are necessary to bring some sanity back to multiple sectors of the economy. I personally look forward to especially car prices getting crushed. We have 3 vehicles so their prices don't affect us personally. I'd like to see the overly greedy people since the pandemic get crushed, and see everyday people with more disposable income as a result. I hope rentcels and upcoming homebuyers get a break too. No hate toward landlords or home sellers, you guys do you. I'd rather people spend less money on rent and mortgage and have money to put elsewhere for long-term health of the economy. Call me crazy.
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post 1690487123 09-22-2023, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
Higher home value does me no good when I don't plan to sell them.

The higher mortgages are $3,200 more a month vs 3% and the refi costs would be $20-50kish on the two properties. I don't know how much they charge for refi.
No chit, nobody plans to sell them unless youre flipping it.. it gives you options.
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post 1690487423 09-22-2023, 11:00 AM
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Lol at the forecasts.

I can see them having a decent idea for the next 3 months...

Beyond that they are waiting for the market to crash to lower it again. They don't know when it will be any more than any other investment firm.
post 1690487583 09-22-2023, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
What does your previous post have to do with anything if we're not selling? A higher home value at refinance time does nothing.
If youre home value increases 20%, instead of refinancing, you can sell and buy another home. Thats called an option.
Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
Lol at the forecasts.

I can see them having a decent idea for the next 3 months...

Beyond that they are waiting for the market to crash to lower it again. They don't know when it will be any more than any other investment firm.
The indicators are crazy, though. Record inflation without wage increases, lower than expected job #'s, record housing prices (at least here in SD)..

My guess is all the same people who made SF a chithole are now moving down here because they can work remote. SD is fully insulated from national trends.
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post 1690488293 09-22-2023, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted By BullittEV⏩
If youre home value increases 20%, instead of refinancing, you can sell and buy another home. Thats called an option.

The indicators are crazy, though. Record inflation without wage increases, lower than expected job #'s, record housing prices (at least here in SD)..

My guess is all the same people who made SF a chithole are now moving down here because they can work remote. SD is fully insulated from national trends.
Yeah home prices in my area are still insane. Sucks finally in a position to buy and everything is still +80% 2020 prices.
post 1690488713 09-22-2023, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
A quick summary from yesterday:

-one more rate hike before the end of this year
-rates being dropped 1-1.5% around the middle of 2024

So tards who think we'll see 3% mortgages again from banks are delusional. More like 5.5% to 6% in 2024-25. Commercial real estate is going to continue its slow motion crash, especially in the bluest cities as rates reset. Other loans will have medium to high interest rates for years to come. On the upside millions more Baby Boomers than expected retired during the pandemic so job openings will likely remain high even if we have a recession (bizarro world conditions).
As I said months ago, commercial real estate stopped paying bills because no rent. That means no prop taxes.

That means city takes control of property...

So city owns all property, theres no "revenue" coming in (and comm real estate are the biggest $$$), and now you get 2k illegals a day living in temp police stations..for now...
post 1690488723 09-22-2023, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted By metroins⏩
I don't think you know what you're saying; I already told you I would not be selling the properties. I don't need options on a second home and third home.

I want lower interest rates.
I apologize for giving you another option that may open a door for you later on. Stay butthurt about it.
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