Check back in 1 year (oct ‘24): home prices will never crash in NOMINAL terms

10-10-2023, 01:04 PM

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#1

ThatGuy950
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Check back in 1 year (oct ‘24): home prices will never crash in NOMINAL terms

Just a reminder, it’s over and what’s different this time is a shift in our economic system to elite and serf communism.

There will obviously be more contractions in real terms, but nothing like in the past, why do you think they’re importing so much 3rd world sewage runoff?

I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think so. The sooner miscers realize this the better position they’ll be in, i <3 u all ded fkn srs

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10-10-2023, 01:40 PM

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#2

frankdtank20
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Prices in 2023 never matched the highs of 2022. In nominal terms I'd bet 2024 prices will average 3-5% lower in the spring and summer, when most homes are sold, compared to the same time in 2022.

Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!

10-10-2023, 02:09 PM

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#3

BullittEV
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩

Prices in 2023 never matched the highs of 2022. In nominal terms I'd bet 2024 prices will average 3-5% lower in the spring and summer, when most homes are sold, compared to the same time in 2022.

Originally Posted By Anachron⏩

3-5% is not a crash, and I wouldn't even call it a correction.

Theres something that doesnt add up, though. At least here in San Diego- rent prices are astronomical due to home prices.. not sure how a lot of these gen Z cringelords are bussing tables and paying that money

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10-10-2023, 02:35 PM

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#4

ThatGuy950
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Originally Posted By BullittEV⏩

Theres something that doesnt add up, though. At least here in San Diego- rent prices are astronomical due to home prices.. not sure how a lot of these gen Z cringelords are bussing tables and paying that money

That is true, definitely some kind of unkown fukery going on, but my base case is opposite of miscers who are expecting to get homes for the same price, in nominal terms (this is what screws up most misc doomers), as they could have in like 2011. All this money printing and relationship the fed now has with banks, as well as how rapidly reactionary it is compared to the early 2000s changes things.

Also, middle class ain’t gonna kill itself

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10-10-2023, 02:58 PM

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#5

r32gojirra
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If you don’t own a home already, this is disastrous - nominal house prices increasing while wages stagnate or go backwards

If you own your primary residence it means little except that your cost of housing erodes more rapidly, because mortgages are issued and repaid in nominal dollars

If you are buying and selling residential property it’s a license to print money

10-10-2023, 03:05 PM

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#6

frankdtank20
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩

3-5% is not a crash, and I wouldn't even call it a correction.

To be fair it's nearly impossible for people who make forecasts for a living to be accurate on this topic. A year ago all the big banks were 100% sure we'd have a recession by now. But in the end the macro picture for the economy looks bleak. All GDP growth is increased govt spending. The one private sector upside is available jobs since Boomers, the biggest generation in history, retired in accelerated fashion during the pandemic, leaving behind a big void to be filled. 2024 could be the first recession where unemployment is still relatively low, just 5-6% territory because of the demographic shift.

Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!

10-10-2023, 03:08 PM

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#7

NarutoNinja
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fuk the jew federal reserve

10-10-2023, 04:17 PM

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#8

WoofieNugget

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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩

To be fair it's nearly impossible for people who make forecasts for a living to be accurate on this topic. A year ago all the big banks were 100% sure we'd have a recession by now. But in the end the macro picture for the economy looks bleak. All GDP growth is increased govt spending. The one private sector upside is available jobs since Boomers, the biggest generation in history, retired in accelerated fashion during the pandemic, leaving behind a big void to be filled. 2024 could be the first recession where unemployment is still relatively low, just 5-6% territory because of the demographic shift.

All our banks are doing is happily extending people's mortgage amortization, so they get the privilege of paying more interest for longer, but they get to keep their house. They're rubbing their hands together with glee because nobody needs to default, they are just paying rent to a bank and losing all their equity.

Meanwhile, condo listings in Toronto are up by 25% and prices are down by 4%. Lots of people trying to dump their "investment" properties.

10-10-2023, 04:34 PM

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#9

HokieBrah
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It's so funny how americans are freaking out. It's been worse for the average european for the past 30 years, we just caught up to them. Their housing costs more, while they make half what we make.