**538 election forecast: Tracker and discussion thread**

2024 Current Forecast:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

6/14/24:
Trump wins 51 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 48 times out of 100.Trump chance of winning 51% up 3% this week

2016 Final ForecastTrump chance of winning 28.6%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

2020 Final ForecastTrump chance of winning 10%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/