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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
09-05-2024, 07:30 PM
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#7051
09-06-2024, 08:18 AM
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#7052
09-06-2024, 08:54 AM
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#7053
Originally Posted By kusok⏩
I’d even say that it is not based on a chart. Such as a $120 price target on tsla. There isn’t a single swing low on any time frame that would show that low price. No cash flow calculation would result in that price either, it’s literally just a random number.

Popped a bubble and now that bitch sweatin lol or is it just a misca's necklace? I tried to let you pussy miscas eat. I pray that all you pussy boys decease.

I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
09-06-2024, 09:28 AM
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#7054
09-06-2024, 09:35 AM
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#7055
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Bond move yet again over exaggerated. This time I’m going to start scaling out of position in 401k and I’ll check out buying TLT $100p and see what it’ll cost me for various time frames. Obviously rates come down but holy crap 30 year sub 4% and 10 year 3.6 yeahok. 13% gain on TLT since buying in April/May without counting dividends or option moves. Insane.
Edit: couldn’t figure out why my account had dipped into margin… realized someone exercised me on the 4 EGY $6 CSP I sold for OCTOBER. Lmao wtf it’s barely September but ok fella.
Edit2: just realized sofi is back to almost $7 flat. Sold $7 CSP for $69 ayyy lmao.
Bought TLT $99p Sept monthly at $61
Edit3: wow crude is getting pummeled hard. Guess I’m unstuck on my EGY $6 CCs lmao. I can’t decide if I should buy to close at $15 from my $65 sell price.
Edit: couldn’t figure out why my account had dipped into margin… realized someone exercised me on the 4 EGY $6 CSP I sold for OCTOBER. Lmao wtf it’s barely September but ok fella.
Edit2: just realized sofi is back to almost $7 flat. Sold $7 CSP for $69 ayyy lmao.
Bought TLT $99p Sept monthly at $61
Edit3: wow crude is getting pummeled hard. Guess I’m unstuck on my EGY $6 CCs lmao. I can’t decide if I should buy to close at $15 from my $65 sell price.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-06-2024, 10:30 AM
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#7056
09-06-2024, 11:08 AM
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#7057
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Within an hour bond rate drops 1%. This is fine this is normal. Lmao I almost sold my 200tlt shares and let my $97 CC ride naked. I guess I should have
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-06-2024, 11:51 AM
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#7058
- dankydank
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- dankydank
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Add -5.7% one week to 2024 to that 🐻QQQ in September
2023: -5.22%
2022: -10.7%
2021: -5.8%
2020: -5.78%
2019: +0.71%
2018: -0.46%, this was the local top and it fell 20% until Jan next year
2017: -0.51%
2023: -5.22%
2022: -10.7%
2021: -5.8%
2020: -5.78%
2019: +0.71%
2018: -0.46%, this was the local top and it fell 20% until Jan next year
2017: -0.51%
09-06-2024, 03:51 PM
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#7059
09-06-2024, 06:51 PM
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#7060
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Too busy dumping money into shytcos to buy puts. If I was gonna buy puts on anything other than TLT I’d have $50p on CVNA. I’ve got a stupid amount of RILY calls… like 60+. If they have any sort of positive announcement there would probably be a big ol squeeze on the short crowd. I think there is still more than 60% short on a 15 million float (insiders have half of all shares with B Rily himself having 23% himself 30m total shares outstanding roughly).
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-06-2024, 09:23 PM
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#7061
09-08-2024, 02:28 PM
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#7062
- BBAckman
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- BBAckman
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FNMA/FMCC gang, we got a nice (although low volume) move on preferreds last friday lets see how this debate goes tuesday.
Otherwise thinking of grabbing some SPY thursday or friday calls if theres a dip to start the week tomorrow. USD/JPY should strengthen after wednesday/thursdays PCI/PPI which should all but confirm we're getting a .25% cut rather than the 0.5% that's now rumor (which would exacerbate the carry trade). Might actually join Rob with some TLT puts as well.
Other than that maybe some LLY Oct puts.
Otherwise thinking of grabbing some SPY thursday or friday calls if theres a dip to start the week tomorrow. USD/JPY should strengthen after wednesday/thursdays PCI/PPI which should all but confirm we're getting a .25% cut rather than the 0.5% that's now rumor (which would exacerbate the carry trade). Might actually join Rob with some TLT puts as well.
Other than that maybe some LLY Oct puts.
09-08-2024, 05:22 PM
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#7063
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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^those preferreds actually traded a little above average, but almost 50% of the volume and price jump came in the last hour of trading. It was weird and I sort of expected a decision to get made on their trial AH which obviously didn’t happen.
Edit: Watched a YT video with a fella who thinks RILY commons are worth roughly $1.5B using sum of parts which implies bonds/baby bonds/preferred shares are made whole even assuming FRG is wrote down to $0. I think that is absolutely nuts, but I'd be down to see a short squeeze try to get close to $50/share. I would never probably hold even close to that figure as I'd likely be sold out by the time shares hit $20 as that would turn my 4 figure trade into 6 figures but my timeframe might be too short as I've got September monthlies primarily, but October $10C monthlies might not be a bad play either around $30 or $35 per contract. Not really much risk as debt won't come due till 2025 and nothing can force them into bankruptcy in the meantime. It is one of those "loan me enough money and we are now partners" situations with Nomura where they have to play ball or get wrecked and go down with Riley. I think Riley has positive news between now and 9/20 but could be mistaken. I've got enough RilyZ/common shares to still make my play worth it even if my Sept $6, $7, $8, and $10 calls go to 0. I do have a significantly smaller October position started and I'd consider making it 3x bigger by Friday or next Monday if it seems nothing will happen in time. Definitely one of those situations where I could be wrong 4 out of 5 times, but when the gains are 10x you just have to try. Thankfully hit one of these this year and had some other solid moves so another wipe isn't painful if that is what happens.
Edit: Watched a YT video with a fella who thinks RILY commons are worth roughly $1.5B using sum of parts which implies bonds/baby bonds/preferred shares are made whole even assuming FRG is wrote down to $0. I think that is absolutely nuts, but I'd be down to see a short squeeze try to get close to $50/share. I would never probably hold even close to that figure as I'd likely be sold out by the time shares hit $20 as that would turn my 4 figure trade into 6 figures but my timeframe might be too short as I've got September monthlies primarily, but October $10C monthlies might not be a bad play either around $30 or $35 per contract. Not really much risk as debt won't come due till 2025 and nothing can force them into bankruptcy in the meantime. It is one of those "loan me enough money and we are now partners" situations with Nomura where they have to play ball or get wrecked and go down with Riley. I think Riley has positive news between now and 9/20 but could be mistaken. I've got enough RilyZ/common shares to still make my play worth it even if my Sept $6, $7, $8, and $10 calls go to 0. I do have a significantly smaller October position started and I'd consider making it 3x bigger by Friday or next Monday if it seems nothing will happen in time. Definitely one of those situations where I could be wrong 4 out of 5 times, but when the gains are 10x you just have to try. Thankfully hit one of these this year and had some other solid moves so another wipe isn't painful if that is what happens.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-09-2024, 08:21 AM
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#7064
09-09-2024, 08:31 AM
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#7065
Still holding and bought more puts on PLTR this morning, I didn't buy more of the ones I already have as the price has not gotten cheap enough yet but I did pick up some of the ones I wanted earlier but ere too expensive at the time, I'm happy that PLTR is happy.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
09-09-2024, 10:52 AM
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#7066
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Ayyy lmao. I’m not adding till something worthy of an 8-k drops. Gotta stop talking and get something done.
Holy fuk fnma/Fmcc volume up x6 of average and price up another 10% after the 10% jump friday. Even commons up 5%. Wonder why. Thanks to pretty much everything being green I’ve got a nice 5 figure Green Day.
Holy fuk fnma/Fmcc volume up x6 of average and price up another 10% after the 10% jump friday. Even commons up 5%. Wonder why. Thanks to pretty much everything being green I’ve got a nice 5 figure Green Day.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-09-2024, 12:11 PM
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#7067
- TugOfPeace
- 1012 ng/dl
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- TugOfPeace
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In on betting against PLTR, bought $34P
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
09-09-2024, 12:58 PM
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#7068
09-09-2024, 01:44 PM
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#7069
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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How far out did you go Tug? Might be too soon if you aren’t looking till at least November.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-09-2024, 02:05 PM
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#7070
- TugOfPeace
- 1012 ng/dl
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- TugOfPeace
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9/20, figured the 15% run today would have some pullback
Nov, damn that's far out
Nov, damn that's far out
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
09-09-2024, 03:26 PM
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#7071
I had the 10/18 31p for ~1.90 and dbled up today, I would suggest the 10/18 but if you were to get the 9/20, buying the 34p is a good idea.
I think the market will collapse quickly so I don't think you need more time but it would make me more comfortable.
PLTR could continue to ~37 but it's good to get a shot at buying puts after the market is already rolling.
I think the market will collapse quickly so I don't think you need more time but it would make me more comfortable.
PLTR could continue to ~37 but it's good to get a shot at buying puts after the market is already rolling.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
09-09-2024, 03:31 PM
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#7072
Jumped into another large micro strategy position a couple of days ago for a day trade (or so I thought) when bitcoin started popping but MSTR wasn’t moving yet,
to my surprise MSTR didn’t move at all, and then both bitcoin and MSTR went down quite a bit, lol, but that’s the beauty of trading with the same assets That you have for long term as well, I don’t have to sell, today in just one day that position went from being down thousands of dollars to being green thousands of dollars, see you guys at Arby’s. We eatin tonite!
P.s.
Yoll nuts to short pltr. maybe when it hits some major level like 35 or $40, and certainly closer to the date when it actually will be included in the index, then you typically see some profit taking, but buying puts now? You may not like the look of your portfolio for the next few days. Hopefully, these are tiny one percent positions,
to my surprise MSTR didn’t move at all, and then both bitcoin and MSTR went down quite a bit, lol, but that’s the beauty of trading with the same assets That you have for long term as well, I don’t have to sell, today in just one day that position went from being down thousands of dollars to being green thousands of dollars, see you guys at Arby’s. We eatin tonite!
P.s.
Yoll nuts to short pltr. maybe when it hits some major level like 35 or $40, and certainly closer to the date when it actually will be included in the index, then you typically see some profit taking, but buying puts now? You may not like the look of your portfolio for the next few days. Hopefully, these are tiny one percent positions,
09-09-2024, 04:06 PM
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#7073
- GeneralSerpant
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- GeneralSerpant
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I sold some pltr to buy some NVDA. Made about $100 in the sell from the s&p bump that will probably correct down to 33.5 in a day or two.
09-09-2024, 04:40 PM
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#7074
I dbled up on some puts because the markets are volatile, I'm not cheap and I'm not greedy, I expect PLTR will go to ~35.50 but it was ~34.80 today lol there really isn't much difference between what I paid today and what it will be if PLTR goes to ~35.50 tomorrow.
I'm not tripling up until PLTR goes to ~37 but I don't know that it will go there, I rather buy now as the risk reward is already good and like I said, I'm not greedy. I will buy better strikes if it happens. Don't care either way.
I'm still holding these puts that were once profitable because I have a plan and multiple price targets that have not been reached yet.
I'm not tripling up until PLTR goes to ~37 but I don't know that it will go there, I rather buy now as the risk reward is already good and like I said, I'm not greedy. I will buy better strikes if it happens. Don't care either way.
I'm still holding these puts that were once profitable because I have a plan and multiple price targets that have not been reached yet.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
09-09-2024, 09:31 PM
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#7075
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Why tf is this website trashed to the point I can't quote a freaking post.
@Tug Honestly Nov is probably cost prohibitive. I think October is fine with the proper mix of time/cost where a solid move your way and even if you're puts are OTM it gives you a solid bump.
@Abzu I like the Oct $32p at $1.10 or maybe even the $33p for $1.30 or $1.40
I also forgot the debate is tomorrow. I'm wondering if that is playing a role in why FNMA/FMCC preferred shares have spiked 20% in the last 2 trading days. I will be keen to see what they do tomorrow if it continues or perhaps drops a little bit. Seems overextended and I've even considered swapping some preferred to common shares as I kinda think I am too preferred share heavy at almost a 1:1 ratio. I'm starting to think unfortunately I'll be playing the long game where this gets released in 2027/2028 at which point no further money will need to be raised and the 2 will be released with $240B cash on hand with a strong possibility of having senior preferred shares considered repaid in full and warrants either expire or they terminate those or let FNMA/FMCC buy them back from the treasury. I think there is a reasonable chance these common shares are $50+ by 2030 so I think I need to sell a portion and buy more common shares to get the ratio back closer to 1:2 pref/common if not 1:3.
Also, I think Rily update today more or less confirms my suspicion that my 9/20 Calls are likely dead or at least there won't be news prior to that date giving me the short squeeze I am looking for. Perhaps shares move anyway depending on if shorts cover or if a bigger person/group tries to initiate a squeeze themselves. Regardless I'll hold to expiration and add October calls early next week or maybe friday.
Kr merger is looking dubious with the idiots at C&S being careless with what they said to each other via text making themselves look utterly incompetent at being a true retailer. The merger, IMO, could very well be dead in the water. Regardless I think they have a strong quarterly showing as they've continued to expand their product delivery services, membership, and enhanced their pick up options at the store. I anticipate that their forecast is going to be strong for the rest of the year too with healthcare taking center stage with their pharmacy unit potentially not losing money for the first time ever. I just don't know what share price does if the merger gets canceled.
ACI has had incredibly strong sales/profits so they will likely continue that and get a big $400M check for deal getting nixed. Honestly I think calls on ACI might be a better proposition than kroger as they benefit in both scenarios where either merger goes through or it doesn't. Their debt load is still sky high, but $400m goes a long way. Their major problem is that Cerberus wants to sell their stake and their sizing is so big they have a lot of sway so this deal was one of the best ways to remove them without damaging the company.
@Tug Honestly Nov is probably cost prohibitive. I think October is fine with the proper mix of time/cost where a solid move your way and even if you're puts are OTM it gives you a solid bump.
@Abzu I like the Oct $32p at $1.10 or maybe even the $33p for $1.30 or $1.40
I also forgot the debate is tomorrow. I'm wondering if that is playing a role in why FNMA/FMCC preferred shares have spiked 20% in the last 2 trading days. I will be keen to see what they do tomorrow if it continues or perhaps drops a little bit. Seems overextended and I've even considered swapping some preferred to common shares as I kinda think I am too preferred share heavy at almost a 1:1 ratio. I'm starting to think unfortunately I'll be playing the long game where this gets released in 2027/2028 at which point no further money will need to be raised and the 2 will be released with $240B cash on hand with a strong possibility of having senior preferred shares considered repaid in full and warrants either expire or they terminate those or let FNMA/FMCC buy them back from the treasury. I think there is a reasonable chance these common shares are $50+ by 2030 so I think I need to sell a portion and buy more common shares to get the ratio back closer to 1:2 pref/common if not 1:3.
Also, I think Rily update today more or less confirms my suspicion that my 9/20 Calls are likely dead or at least there won't be news prior to that date giving me the short squeeze I am looking for. Perhaps shares move anyway depending on if shorts cover or if a bigger person/group tries to initiate a squeeze themselves. Regardless I'll hold to expiration and add October calls early next week or maybe friday.
Kr merger is looking dubious with the idiots at C&S being careless with what they said to each other via text making themselves look utterly incompetent at being a true retailer. The merger, IMO, could very well be dead in the water. Regardless I think they have a strong quarterly showing as they've continued to expand their product delivery services, membership, and enhanced their pick up options at the store. I anticipate that their forecast is going to be strong for the rest of the year too with healthcare taking center stage with their pharmacy unit potentially not losing money for the first time ever. I just don't know what share price does if the merger gets canceled.
ACI has had incredibly strong sales/profits so they will likely continue that and get a big $400M check for deal getting nixed. Honestly I think calls on ACI might be a better proposition than kroger as they benefit in both scenarios where either merger goes through or it doesn't. Their debt load is still sky high, but $400m goes a long way. Their major problem is that Cerberus wants to sell their stake and their sizing is so big they have a lot of sway so this deal was one of the best ways to remove them without damaging the company.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-10-2024, 09:53 AM
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#7076
09-10-2024, 10:12 AM
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#7077
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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Banks struggling too, but why? They already agreed to scale back the capital requirement hike by half… isn’t that a win?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
09-10-2024, 12:20 PM
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#7078
- TugOfPeace
- 1012 ng/dl
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- TugOfPeace
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I sold my sept puts and bought for 10/18, $34P (PLTR). Stonk may take awhile to drop
Country is in bad times boyos. Was talking to my dad about why he doesn't like Trump and he said literally, "he is mean to people and I also don't like his stance on abortion". I'm like yea, who gives a fook about world peace, the economy, and border security.. Murica is doomed.
Debate should be good comedy. Figuring out what I want to eat while I watch this entertainment.
Country is in bad times boyos. Was talking to my dad about why he doesn't like Trump and he said literally, "he is mean to people and I also don't like his stance on abortion". I'm like yea, who gives a fook about world peace, the economy, and border security.. Murica is doomed.
Debate should be good comedy. Figuring out what I want to eat while I watch this entertainment.
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
09-10-2024, 12:22 PM
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#7079
09-10-2024, 03:31 PM
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#7080
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