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Forum » UK Covid report: Unvaccinated mortality 10x lower with delta vs orig covid
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Thread: UK Covid report: Unvaccinated mortality 10x lower with delta vs orig covid

post 1644344993 08-05-2021, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted By Reliance012⏩
Both theoretically and empirically wrong.

There are examples of pathogens that have been circulating and evolving in humans for centuries to millennia that maintain high virulence. There are also instances of highly virulent variants arising, circulating, and out competing more benign competitors. You’re making the fundamental mistake of thinking evolution is a species level selection event. It is a completion between individuals. Harming the host can be an unavoidable cost of extracting resources, and if that resource extraction provides a propagation benefit, it can offset and outweigh the cost of mortality (limiting total transmission time.) Pathogens evolve in the context of tradeoffs between exploiting the current host and making it to the next. The shape of the tradeoff curve is a partly a function of how dependent a pathogen is on a mobile, healthy host for transmission.
In GENERAL do you agree that they become less deadly? Or do you disagree with Dr. Fauci?

"But the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) also had a bit of good news, assuring "there are not more virulent strains out there."

"Viruses, when they permeate society, rarely become more virulent. Generally they become less virulent as they adapt themselves with greater transmissibility," Fauci explained. "I just think what you're going to see is that it might be a bit more transmissible, at least according to the receptor binding, but we have to look at that in a more physiological way.""

https://bestlifeonline.com/fauci-covid-mutation/
What are you on about mate?
post 1644345023 08-05-2021, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted By ImBunky⏩
From the man, himself



https://bestlifeonline.com/fauci-covid-mutation/
I like how the apologists are glossing right over this. Inb4 that was before we knew more about this virus. Inb4 you don't know the REAL definition of virulent. Inb4 muh feelings tell me otherwise and I have no excuse as to why the leading "expert" said this. Inb4 inb4.
post 1644345773 08-05-2021, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted By OrdoAbchao⏩
In GENERAL do you agree that they become less deadly? Or do you disagree with Dr. Fauci?

"But the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) also had a bit of good news, assuring "there are not more virulent strains out there."

"Viruses, when they permeate society, rarely become more virulent. Generally they become less virulent as they adapt themselves with greater transmissibility," Fauci explained. "I just think what you're going to see is that it might be a bit more transmissible, at least according to the receptor binding, but we have to look at that in a more physiological way.""

https://bestlifeonline.com/fauci-covid-mutation/
I’d say in most events where a pathogen enters a new host species, it evolves to be less inherently virulent. I’ve stated this before. But that is a far cry from making proclamations about pathogens always evolving lower virulence. We have a pretty low sample size to make generalizations from and should refrain from guaranteeing that outcome. I’ve touched on reasons why SARSCOV2 may be able to avoid some of the costs of high virulence, and thus relax the selection pressures for evolving lower virulence.

Random note, I could not care less about what Fauci says regarding virulence evolution. That is not his expertise. The medically community is often a source of misinformation on these topics. There are researchers who have dedicated their entire lives to studying evolution of virulence. They are the ones to listen to, or better yet, read their work.
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post 1644345993 08-05-2021, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
You have Florida breaking their hospitalizations record
Last year, with nobody vaccinated, they set a record on 7/23

This year, with 50% fully vaccinated and 60% having at least one shot, they break their hospitalization record
Vaccine is supposed to prevent severe illness , right?
Even if the vaccine is 80% effective, which phizer claims, you have 80% of 60% = 48% of the population removed from severe illness
But the record is broken anyways

You could make the argument that the vaccine is statistically ineffective
50% vaccinationis not enough. Delta is a very tough opponent.






Not only is vax rate of florida very low but they also dont wear masks and have a culture of 'virus is over' wheres based, goat state vermont not only have high vax rate but still keep masking up.

'vaccines dont work btw'
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post 1644346233 08-05-2021, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted By Reliance012⏩
I’d say in most events where a pathogen enters a new host species, it evolves to be less inherently virulent. I’ve stated this before. But that is a far cry from making proclamations about pathogens always evolving lower virulence. We have a pretty low sample size to make generalizations from and should refrain from guaranteeing that outcome. I’ve touched on reasons why SARSCOV2 may be able to avoid some of the costs of high virulence, and thus relax the selection pressures for evolving lower virulence.

Random note, I could not care less about what Fauci says regarding virulence evolution. That is not his expertise. The medically community is often a source of misinformation on these topics.
I've just seen you call out people for stating something of the sort when they are making a GENERAL comment on what happens in most instances. I haven't seen anyone really argue that in all cases this is the truth.
What are you on about mate?
post 1644346893 08-05-2021, 04:47 PM
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that makes absolutely no sense. no way anybody believes that "well hey, if youre vaccinated you probably wont get it, but if you do, youre more likely to die from it than unvaccinated"

why not just stick to the original argument that unvaccinated are unlikely to die from it? other arguments just make you sounds like an idiot nut job. lol
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post 1644346963 08-05-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By OrdoAbchao⏩
I've just seen you call out people for stating something of the sort when they are making a GENERAL comment on what happens in most instances. I haven't seen anyone really argue that in all cases this is the truth.
We don’t know how generally it happens though. Is it more probable than not? I believe so. But I’m going after the assumption that SARSCOV2 is guaranteed, or even highly likely, to evolve lower virulence. We just don’t know. And more than anything, I’m correcting the belief that natural selection always favors more mild variants. There are actually things we can do to help select for more mild variants.
"Seen in the light of evolution, biology is, perhaps, intellectually the most satisfying and inspiring science. Without that light it becomes a pile of sundry facts -- some of them interesting or curious but making no meaningful picture as a whole."
post 1644347023 08-05-2021, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted By Trapstar4.4⏩
that makes absolutely no sense. no way anybody believes that "well hey, if youre vaccinated you probably wont get it, but if you do, youre more likely to die from it than unvaccinated"

why not just stick to the original argument that unvaccinated are unlikely to die from it? other arguments just make you sounds like an idiot nut job. lol
That's not what it said. It said if you do happen to have a breakthrough case you are more likely die. Either way, the delta variant is 10x less deadly than the original, so it's a moot point.
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post 1644347333 08-05-2021, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted By Stizzel⏩
This had been my understanding. Pushing the vaccines will force the virus to evolve around the vacvine
Yea - just to be fair in postings - here is the rebuttals to that guy


https://medika.life/fact-checking-ge...isinformation/


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post 1644347473 08-05-2021, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted By ViolentZ⏩
50% vaccinationis not enough. Delta is a very tough opponent.






Not only is vax rate of florida very low but they also dont wear masks and have a culture of 'virus is over' wheres based, goat state vermont not only have high vax rate but still keep masking up.

'vaccines dont work btw'
How many deaths?
post 1644365103 08-05-2021, 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted By Reliance012⏩
We don’t know how generally it happens though. Is it more probable than not? I believe so. But I’m going after the assumption that SARSCOV2 is guaranteed, or even highly likely, to evolve lower virulence. We just don’t know. And more than anything, I’m correcting the belief that natural selection always favors more mild variants. There are actually things we can do to help select for more mild variants.
I don't know if you are for mandatory vaccines or what your thoughts are on lockdowns etc, but I keep reading about a lot of UNKNOWNS with this virus that policies are being based on. That is a problem for me. Governments and employers overstepping their boundaries and reacting to a virus that has way too many unknowns.
What are you on about mate?
post 1644367943 08-05-2021, 11:45 PM
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Delta is likely 50-60% less deadly per unvaccinated person that gets infected.
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post 1644368473 08-06-2021, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted By ViolentZ⏩
50% vaccinationis not enough. Delta is a very tough opponent.






Not only is vax rate of florida very low but they also dont wear masks and have a culture of 'virus is over' wheres based, goat state vermont not only have high vax rate but still keep masking up.

'vaccines dont work btw'
without a year over year comparison, your example is worthless

Here’s what we know
Case and hospitalizations are at very similar #s in Florida(when looking at last year vs this year)
Last year , 0% of the population vaccinated
This year, 60% with at least 1 shot(1 shot is 85% effective)

Numbers haven’t changed, peak at the same time

Same thing in my county, literally within a week of each other, the most cases of the year, very similar #

No impact of the vaccine on large data sets
It’s almost like the virus is just continuing to virus
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post 1644369043 08-06-2021, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted By sy2502⏩
It does indeed seem that for the over 50 being unvaccinated is much better than being vaccinated in terms of needing emergency care, hospitalization.
I don't think you can draw that conclusion based on table 5 since we don't know the size of each of those populations at the time the data was gathered.
post 1644369613 08-06-2021, 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted By ViolentZ⏩
50% vaccinationis not enough. Delta is a very tough opponent.






Not only is vax rate of florida very low but they also dont wear masks and have a culture of 'virus is over' wheres based, goat state vermont not only have high vax rate but still keep masking up.

'vaccines dont work btw'
Florida doesn't have a low vaccination rate. It's the exact same as the US average. Concentrated in South Florida, where especially Latin America goes to vacation.

Weather changes people's behaviors by region. The Northeast and Midwest got it the worst in the spring, both 2020 and 2021. In the summer the South followed by the West got it the worst, again both years. Weather affected behavior affecting transmission. The Delta wave has about 10 days, maybe up to 15 before it drops off in the South, the West about a week after that.

GOAT state Vermont? Said no one ever. I grew up one state over in NY. I've been to most US states, 4 continents. Never Vermont.
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post 1644370133 08-06-2021, 01:27 AM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
without a year over year comparison, your example is worthless

Here’s what we know
Case and hospitalizations are at very similar #s in Florida(when looking at last year vs this year)
Last year , 0% of the population vaccinated
This year, 60% with at least 1 shot(1 shot is 85% effective)

Numbers haven’t changed, peak at the same time

Same thing in my county, literally within a week of each other, the most cases of the year, very similar #

No impact of the vaccine on large data sets
It’s almost like the virus is just continuing to virus
The US is testing less with plenty of testing available than it did last summer when we were scrambling to get more test kits. Goes to show the public isn't as panicked as the media would like. Even with lower testing there are more cases than last summer. Oh well. If you adjust testing and cases for both summers, we have about an 85% lower fatality rate than last summer.

Some things never mentioned by the fear porn media are how transmission patterns are the same in 2021 as 2020. The Northeast got kicked in spring, both years. The South in the summer, both years. About 40% of the US lives in the South. So yeah it's going to cause more of a show.
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post 1644374363 08-06-2021, 05:12 AM
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Originally Posted By Reliance012⏩
Until the day you can interpret a table with a few numbers
LMAO. You just keep doubling down on being wrong...


Even your master Fauci admits it.
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post 1644386803 08-06-2021, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
LMAO. You just keep doubling down on being wrong...


Even your master Fauci admits it.
Still having trouble with that table huh?
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post 1644387983 08-06-2021, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted By Reliance012⏩
Still having trouble with that table huh?
The data is the data. Interpreting it becomes partly art without knowing a ton of other data points. In very much the same way economists interpret data. There's a constant "but if you consider" and "on the other hand" way of looking at things. Even with all that in mind, Delta simply has to be less fatal. The data is just too extreme for it to be equally fatal as the prior Alpha variant.
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post 1644390403 08-06-2021, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
The data is the data. Interpreting it becomes partly art without knowing a ton of other data points. In very much the same way economists interpret data. There's a constant "but if you consider" and "on the other hand" way of looking at things. Even with all that in mind, Delta simply has to be less fatal. The data is just too extreme for it to be equally fatal as the prior Alpha variant.
The evidence all points to Delta being more severe. You ignore it in favor of a crude table that doesn’t control for any important variables, including age. No, groupings of <,> 50 is not properly stratifying for age. If you tried to publish a retrospective study claiming that Delta was less virulent using that data, it would be rejected outright without a chance of resubmission.

But let’s take a look at the actual evidence:

Scotland study found double the risk of hospitalization when controlling for other factors
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34139198/

Studies from Canada and Singapore found higher risk of hospitalization and death

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....05.21260050v2

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3861566


Another study showing higher viral loads compared to alpha, which is correlated with more severe disease

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....07.21260122v2

In vitro studies showing Delta is fusogenic, more likely to form syncytia and has enhanced entry into lung cells.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...06.17.448820v1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...568v1.full.pdf
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post 1644394633 08-06-2021, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted By Trapstar4.4⏩
that makes absolutely no sense. no way anybody believes that "well hey, if youre vaccinated you probably wont get it, but if you do, youre more likely to die from it than unvaccinated"
that is of course not what the report says in any way shape or form. Stizzel is just a premium mouthbreathing neckbeard with very closely related parents
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post 1644402013 08-06-2021, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
The US is testing less with plenty of testing available than it did last summer when we were scrambling to get more test kits. Goes to show the public isn't as panicked as the media would like. Even with lower testing there are more cases than last summer. Oh well. If you adjust testing and cases for both summers, we have about an 85% lower fatality rate than last summer.

Some things never mentioned by the fear porn media are how transmission patterns are the same in 2021 as 2020. The Northeast got kicked in spring, both years. The South in the summer, both years. About 40% of the US lives in the South. So yeah it's going to cause more of a show.
There is only a 6% positive test rate as it is. 36M cases/541M tests.

The death rate was only ever high in the beginning because democrat governors killed like 80K old people.
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