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Forum » House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.
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Thread: House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.

post 1642447853 07-08-2021, 07:01 PM
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#181
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The thing with bubbles and crashes is nobody sees them coming

So while OP may be talking out of his arse, so are the people who say its not going to happen
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post 1642448093 07-08-2021, 07:06 PM
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#182
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[QUOTE=SaviorSelfJT;1642447853]The thing with bubbles and crashes is nobody sees them coming

So while OP may be talking out of his arse, so are the people who say its not going to happen[/QUOTE
The select few who do, like Michael Burry, make tens and tens of millions
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post 1642448233 07-08-2021, 07:07 PM
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#183
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[QUOTE=ThatGuy950;1642448093][QUOTE=SaviorSelfJT post_id=1642447853]The thing with bubbles and crashes is nobody sees them coming

So while OP may be talking out of his arse, so are the people who say its not going to happen[/QUOTE
The select few who do, like Michael Burry, make tens and tens of millions[/QUOTE]True. but as they say "economists have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"

For every burry theres someone else who bet on a bubble that didn't happen
Best lifts:
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post 1642448373 07-08-2021, 07:11 PM
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#184
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
because in 04-07 (which caused the 08 crash) you could get a 100% loan with stated income(no income docs) and a credit score of 620, with 1 open trade line

Nothing like that exists today
doesnt have to be exactly analogous and they just announced a push this week to ease lending requirements which are locking 'poor non-whites out of the dream of home ownership'. Its coming again, maybe not in the next year but its coming.
"I'm not like most girls." -most girls
post 1642448533 07-08-2021, 07:13 PM
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#185
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
Production is down severely, export is down severely, imports are up dramatically, the cost of imports are up dramatically, the amount of money in circulation is up dramatically. This is the result of printing money and shutting down the economy. This is how you fatally crush an economy.

This was the economic reset everyone was voting for. No one’s fault but whoever voted for Biden. Y’all better be prepared, because it’s just going to keep getting worse. This is not just a recession, we very well could be headed to a Great Depression. When Trump said that Biden is going to destroy the country, he was not just talking out of his ass. That’s literally what they are trying to do. “Build back better“ was rhetoric for “we are going to restructure the United States into a socialist and fascist country with emphasis on destroying whites…”. Biden does not realize that he is being played by black supremacists
Trump sure as hell wasn't helping lmao
Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
True. but as they say "economists have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"

For every burry theres someone else who bet on a bubble that didn't happen
Except the bubble was always there. Do you actually think the economy was healthy between 2012-2018?

People who go "durr economic doomers are right twice a day" are retards. It's the equivalent of mocking your doctor for predicting you have 1 year to live instead of 4 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_decline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#By_absorption
post 1642448683 07-08-2021, 07:16 PM
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[QUOTE=SaviorSelfJT;1642448233][QUOTE=ThatGuy950 post_id=1642448093]
True. but as they say "economists have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"

For every burry theres someone else who bet on a bubble that didn't happen[/QUOTE]Is burry right? Who knows but there sure as fuk is a ton of people panicking because of what he said.
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post 1642451703 07-08-2021, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted By BulkingIsHard⏩
Trump sure as hell wasn't helping lmao
You will have to explain.

Obama's 8 year was during the recovery from the last recession, so his economy didn't look bad. When Trump took office, it was pretty close to the end, so most of his term was outside of that recovery. The economy was doing well until shutdowns.

So Id be curious as the cause and affects of his policies.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
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post 1642688233 07-12-2021, 01:29 PM
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#188
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
False
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post 1642689243 07-12-2021, 01:40 PM
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#189
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Just lmfao @ miscers who were buying homes and not cardboardmaxxing.

I'm about to have the biggest box-house this side of San Francisco.
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post 1642689593 07-12-2021, 01:44 PM
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Property-cucks on suicide watch, Rentcels rise up now.
post 1642691103 07-12-2021, 02:01 PM
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#191
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Originally Posted By adamsz⏩
Lmao

Someone pls bump in a year when prices are up a minimum 10%
This. Strong retards in this thread.
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post 1642693473 07-12-2021, 02:36 PM
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#192
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
This is worse than 08. There's no room to improve, No tech boom to get us out, the economy is based on BLM and social justice bullsh*t, higher taxes, reparations, higher costs, you name it. This is so much worse, and let's be honest the economy never really recovered fully from 08, they just tinkered with it, This is the big bang that many doomsayers have been talking about.
There is a tech boom happening in Web 3.0 and decentralised finance/value capture, AI, robotics etc etc. The problem with all tech is that its essentially inherently deflationary. Each successive tech advance leads to less people being needed to work. Back in the middle ages lol at not having a job, every fukker was needed to pull a plow. As tech advances less and less people need to be employed and less and less people can be. There is definitely a tech boom happening right now its just a question of what effect this will have on the world economy/society.
post 1642693833 07-12-2021, 02:43 PM
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#193
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Originally Posted By EnochsProphecy⏩
2008 was caused because the banks were giving almost everyone a loan. In today's climate, it's actually very hard to get a loan for a house, much less buying one for the market price. Inflation will go up too. I would bet that time time this year houses will be at least worth 10% more.
Lol this

Strong cope OP
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post 1642694003 07-12-2021, 02:45 PM
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#194
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Originally Posted By GerbilFarmer⏩
Lol this

Strong cope OP
us govt is buying 60billion of mbs a month incentivizing banks to generate as many mortgages as they can with NO risk to them.

Its the exact same mechanism as 2008. In 2008 wall st decided mbs were infallible and starting piling on them, so the banks started generating as many mortgages as they can....
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post 1642695203 07-12-2021, 03:02 PM
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#195
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Originally Posted By FrankGrimesJr⏩
Anyone notice that economists and " housing experts" predictions are wrong 90% of the time?
Economists have predicted 8383848383873 of the last 3 market crashes.
post 1642695953 07-12-2021, 03:11 PM
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#196
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The big difference between now and 2008 is the supply of houses was much higher than demand in 2008, while now it's the other way around.
post 1642696853 07-12-2021, 03:22 PM
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#197
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Originally Posted By Jasonw1178⏩
The big difference between now and 2008 is the supply of houses was much higher than demand in 2008, while now it's the other way around.
can change very quickly.
post 1642697073 07-12-2021, 03:24 PM
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#198
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Originally Posted By Actonspur⏩
There is a tech boom happening in Web 3.0 and decentralised finance/value capture, AI, robotics etc etc. The problem with all tech is that its essentially inherently deflationary. Each successive tech advance leads to less people being needed to work. Back in the middle ages lol at not having a job, every fukker was needed to pull a plow. As tech advances less and less people need to be employed and less and less people can be. There is definitely a tech boom happening right now its just a question of what effect this will have on the world economy/society.
Theres no f**king tech boom. The primary business of tech companies is cis gender portguese trannies that's their business model.

All this Data Science, AI, Robotics, and Crypto will never take off mainstream especielly in US where many computers still run off Microsoft Vista ffs. Long story short its all a scam and no one gives a phuck, I remember vividly when the Data Science team at my bank got fired, their "insights" provided no value.
post 1642698993 07-12-2021, 03:48 PM
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#199
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Originally Posted By Jasonw1178⏩
The big difference between now and 2008 is the supply of houses was much higher than demand in 2008, while now it's the other way around.
2008? When the crash started? That makes sense.

2007? Nope. Similar low inventory and bidding wars was the norm.

The big difference was that there were plenty of people getting loans. The market of buyers is actually much smaller this time around.

I honestly don't think it's going to crash like people think, but it gets really tiring hearing "this time is different." People act like crashes must follow the exact same pattern as crashes of the past.

There are far fewer buyers in 2021 than there were in 2007. Everyone and their broke ass uncle was able to get a loan in 2007. It's not the same today.

There are so many things that could bring the market down:
Businesses calling people back into the office(already happening at my 20,000+ employee company)
John and Sally Boomer who bought a bigger home and decided to rent out their previous home are going to realize playing landlord isn't all it is cracked up to be.
Fed could tighten its belt
Stocks could tank, forcing assets to be sold to cover losses.

None of these things happened in 2008, but would definitely cause prices to drop considerably today.
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post 1642699233 07-12-2021, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
can change very quickly.
last I saw housing shortage was at 3.8m units. kden
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1642699913 07-12-2021, 03:58 PM
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#201
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
You will have to explain.

Obama's 8 year was during the recovery from the last recession, so his economy didn't look bad. When Trump took office, it was pretty close to the end, so most of his term was outside of that recovery. The economy was doing well until shutdowns.

So Id be curious as the cause and affects of his policies.
Trump criticized Obama's bubble economy before he was in office. He correctly pointed out that rates were too low while assets just kept climbing higher and higher. Then when he became president the stock market pumped off the optimism that he would change things.

Fast forward two years, and he didn't end enough regulation and cut back on enough spending/taxation for us to compete with China. Hell, he didn't even get around to ending Occupational Licensing till late 2020. Around 2018 the market started to dangerously waver as the Fed very slowly raised rates. We made it to 2.25% before they went back to cutting rates so we could go back to being drunk on cheap money. Meanwhile Trump praised stock valuations, unemployment, jobs, etc. as his miracle economy.

Despite the dovish Fed, around mid 2019 we were on the brink of recession. Yields had inverted, momentum had slowed, and the COVID-19 retardation was just the spark that ignited the powder keg.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_decline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#By_absorption
post 1642702343 07-12-2021, 04:30 PM
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#202
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Originally Posted By ~Hades~⏩
False
True. Talk to any financial advisers now, or a loan officer.

Giving out loans like CANDY.

Youd be amazed how many people have bought houses with ~3% down in the past year or 2

And why not? Everyone is saying "low interest rates" "cheaper than renting" if you haven't heard this kind of talk. You haven't talked to enough people
post 1642702493 07-12-2021, 04:32 PM
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#203
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Originally Posted By BulkingIsHard⏩
Trump criticized Obama's bubble economy before he was in office. He correctly pointed out that rates were too low while assets just kept climbing higher and higher. Then when he became president the stock market pumped off the optimism that he would change things.

Fast forward two years, and he didn't end enough regulation and cut back on enough spending/taxation for us to compete with China. Hell, he didn't even get around to ending Occupational Licensing till late 2020. Around 2018 the market started to dangerously waver as the Fed very slowly raised rates. We made it to 2.25% before they went back to cutting rates so we could go back to being drunk on cheap money. Meanwhile Trump praised stock valuations, unemployment, jobs, etc. as his miracle economy.

Despite the dovish Fed, around mid 2019 we were on the brink of recession. Yields had inverted, momentum had slowed, and the COVID-19 retardation was just the spark that ignited the powder keg.
Too based.
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post 1642702563 07-12-2021, 04:34 PM
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#204
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
us govt is buying 60billion of mbs a month incentivizing banks to generate as many mortgages as they can with NO risk to them.

Its the exact same mechanism as 2008. In 2008 wall st decided mbs were infallible and starting piling on them, so the banks started generating as many mortgages as they can....
they were giving away mortgages in the lead up 2008. the door swung the other way after that and there are much tighter standards. i see people getting declined all the time now still
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post 1642703033 07-12-2021, 04:40 PM
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Negged
post 1642703273 07-12-2021, 04:45 PM
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#206
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
True. Talk to any financial advisers now, or a loan officer.

Giving out loans like CANDY.

Youd be amazed how many people have bought houses with ~3% down in the past year or 2

And why not? Everyone is saying "low interest rates" "cheaper than renting" if you haven't heard this kind of talk. You haven't talked to enough people
i talk to LO's every day of my life and there's no fuking way those dip****s bought a 1.2 million house with 3% down when they are already over 100% dti with just the principal and interest alone thru a reputable lender. that LO and underwriter would be fired.

i actually wouldnt be surprised how many people bought houses at ~3% since i actually work in real estate and see this chit first hand every day. the team im on sold 600 houses last year alone so yeah i know more than your avg joe or your sister in law that sold 4 houses last year. if 3% is a shocker to you then your mind is gonna melt when you find out people get usda loans and va loans at 0%

the lending environment is nothing like it was in the lead up to 08....nothing
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post 1642704243 07-12-2021, 04:58 PM
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#207
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Originally Posted By ~Hades~⏩
i talk to LO's every day of my life and there's no fuking way those dip****s bought a 1.2 million house with 3% down when they are already over 100% dti with just the principal and interest alone thru a reputable lender. that LO and underwriter would be fired.

i actually wouldnt be surprised how many people bought houses at ~3% since i actually work in real estate and see this chit first hand every day. the team im on sold 600 houses last year alone so yeah i know more than your avg joe or your sister in law that sold 4 houses last year. if 3% is a shocker to you then your mind is gonna melt when you find out people get usda loans and va loans at 0%

the lending environment is nothing like it was in the lead up to 08....nothing
He's still going at these lies lol

https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showt...post1642703583
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post 1642704283 07-12-2021, 04:58 PM
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#208
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Just need it to stay afloat for 3 more months so I can finally sell my rancher and live in hotels for the rest of my career, paid for of course (srs getting a traveling gig).

Worst case I guess I'll rent it, it's a highly desirable rental area, but I'd rather cut loose with if entirely.
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post 1642704383 07-12-2021, 04:59 PM
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#209
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Real Estate agents are like nurses and vegans
Always let you know what they are and potatoes

Lumber is down locally here. $8.30 for 2x4, two days later $6.20. $89 plywood, $66 two days later
I bought 2x4s for $2.XX pre election
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post 1642704463 07-12-2021, 05:00 PM
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#210
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Originally Posted By ~Hades~⏩
i talk to LO's every day of my life and there's no fuking way those dip****s bought a 1.2 million house with 3% down when they are already over 100% dti with just the principal and interest alone thru a reputable lender. that LO and underwriter would be fired.
why would you assume over 100% DTI?

They are making it because they are renting out 3 of the rooms. which was part of the plan
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