I recently just came across this, called the sleeping beauty problem.

"Sleeping Beauty volunteers to undergo the following experiment and is told all of the following details: On Sunday she will be put to sleep. Once or twice, during the experiment, Beauty will be awakened, interviewed, and put back to sleep with an amnesia-inducing drug that makes her forget that awakening. A fair coin will be tossed to determine which experimental procedure to undertake: if the coin comes up heads, Beauty will be awakened and interviewed on Monday only. If the coin comes up tails, she will be awakened and interviewed on Monday and Tuesday. In either case, she will be awakened on Wednesday without interview and the experiment ends.

Any time Sleeping Beauty is awakened and interviewed she will not be able to tell which day it is or whether she has been awakened before. During the interview Beauty is asked: "What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?"."


So...the question is, if you were to wake up at any one time during the experiment, is it 50/50 it was heads (initial condition of experiment), or is it 1/3 (2x likely you are woken for tails)?

Apparently it is actually a pretty big unsolved debate in Epistemology and mathematics, with people vehemently either on the 1/2 or 1/3 side.

i'm sure miscers will solve an unsolved math question when some can't even figure out fukkin 7th grade math (48/2(9+3))

this should be good

how will that help me get laid?

nobody cares bro.. back to my curls






























srs tho heads is 1/3

Remember when we couldn't decide how many days are in a week?

Good times.

Oh and the answer is 1/2 opie

pemdas

48/2(9+3)

48/2*12

24*12 = 288

Well if my 8 years of college taught me anything, the answer would be op is a *******.

Try again,

peMdas

48/2*12

48/24 = 2

it's not multiplication first and division second, that's a common mistake.

It's either ones starting from the left

http://study.com/academy/lesson/usin...sson-quiz.html

The math depends on her understanding of the situation laid out in front of her.



We are predicating that Sleeping Beauty is intellectually advanced enough to participate.



Just LOL.

Pics of sleeping beauty?

Left to right, PEMDAS

M comes before D so multiplication before division brah

nope

it's multiplication and/or division, srs look it up

I am very hard on the 1/3 side.

Sleeping beauty gettin this D whether she wake up or not

jk that's wrong

Explain the controversy.

Becuse the probability of her being woken on a Monday is 100% so it comes down to whether she was woken on Tuesday. Which is 50/50.

LMAO and here come the people who failed grade 7 (or i'm getting trolled, which i think i'd prefer)

let me explain it to you brah, listen up

in Canada it's taught as BEDMAS which is the same thing is PEMDAS. wanna take a guess why?

it's like this: (P)(E)(MD)(AS). When you get to multiplication you do multiplication and division at the same fuking time, from left to right. you don't do division first

the answer is 288, come on brah you're better than that

edit: fixed my mistake which was irrelevant to the explanation

Next you're gonna tell me there are 8 days in a week

it's ok bro it was mind fukin and ego crushing for me too when I learned it in college the hard way

i dont understand the question.
So i choose E all of the above.

Not knowing what day it is has nothing to do with the coin being heads or tails.

The chance of it being heads is 50/50.

It doesn't matter if you woke her up a million times, she has no recollection and has no data to make a more advanced estimate.

So she should say 50 % every time.

Unless I was doing the experiment that is. Cos she'll know it's Tuesday cos her ass is still sore from Mondays rape session.

So to sum it up..

Heads 50%
Tails 50%
Getting my rape on 100%

It literally said that a fair coin will be used to determine the experiment used. Fair coin means 50/50

Mate I like ya but take the L lol.

I'm fairly certain it is 1/3. She can assign likelihoods to guessing what day it is, and see it is more likely that it is monday. There are thus, two outcomes for tails and only one for heads, all with equal probability. This is formulated from the pov of beauty. If it were from the pov of the rapists experimenting on her, they would simply observe 1/2 probability it's heads or tails. This is a different question from her assessment given that she woke up what was the probability of the coin being heads or tails.

Pretty sure it's 50%

Whenever she wakes up there's a 50% chance it landed on heads and a 50% chance it landed on tails.

Then again the 100% chance to wake up Monday may effect the statistics. Reminds me of the Monty Hall scenario.

This is the correct interpretation of PEMDAS. Although mathematicians almost never leave expressions like this up to order of operations, they just use extra parentheses.

put what your wrote into a scientific calculator if you need. its 288.

Exactly, and if you know that scenario, you should see why the right answer to this is 1/3.

Imagine a similar problem, if its heads, you wake up once, asked question, then go to sleep until its over. If its tails they wake you up 1000 times to ask you a question before its over. Whats more likely, they are talking to you, and its its the 1/1000 that it was heads, or 999/1000 that this is just a tails interview?

50-50 from her perspective. The trials with the coin are independent.

bayesian probability

1/3

question is not "heads or tails", it's "given that i've been woken up, was it heads or tails?"

1/3. Don’t really see the controversy. Can anyone explain a convincing argument for 1/2?