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Thread: The Stock Market

post 1547548001 03-27-2018, 10:51 AM
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#361
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I have 35 more years until retirement, I only check my Roth once a month to make sure the transfers and auto buys go through.

I will worry when I hit 60 and plan accordingly then.
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post 1547552371 03-27-2018, 11:47 AM
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#362
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
Anyone do confident in a correction should short the market and post a screenshot here. Otherwise, we are all guessing.

People have been predicting corrections for the last 6+ years. Eventually someone will be right, but it will be luck, not superior market knowledge.
not sure if srs, watch the f*cking video I posted. It's embarrassing. We've had artificially low interest rates for a decade and now rates are rising, pop goes the bubble inflated by cheap credit. Super market knowledge=knowing we're in a bubble, knowing the cause of this bubble is the same cause for every other bubble since The Great Depression (Credit expansion [boom] followed by contraction [bust])

Do you think 2008 predictions were just based on "luck" as well?
Originally Posted By XterraRob⏩
Yup, any retard (both high and low) can make a declaration that the market will go up or down, anyone with a brain will shrug and say "who knows?".
Really? read the post above
"Education is humanity's key to salvation."
Fken lol, looks like you're not doing your part. Maybe read up on austrian economics
post 1547552911 03-27-2018, 11:52 AM
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#363
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
All I’m saying is we have had the same stock valuations for a LONG time, yet the market has plunged forward (against all logic, I agree). Now, have have decreased corporate taxes meaning increased corporate profits, which will improve valuations, will it not? We have a healthier economy than we did in recent years. All Logic points to improved performance.

I’ll concede that the market does not follow logic and “nobody knows nothin.” Therefore I buy and hold regardless of swings. I don’t need this money for 30+ years, why would I care if it dips now?

I just get amused when people try to apply logic to explain the market. Like I said, if you think it is going down, short the market, make a killing, go buy a yacht.
DirkNowitskiSHUTITDOWN.gif


/thread.
post 1547553041 03-27-2018, 11:54 AM
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#364
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
funny thing is that noobs were saying exactly what you are saying in the 2006/2007 timeframe -https://youtu.be/1xg7V7r9mFc?t=54
"I think it's a great time to start a mortgage company" - Donald Trump, 2006
Anyone involved in real estate could make cash hand over fist in 2006 and eject shortly after the bubble burst.

If you were smart and didn't blow cash on a mcmansion house and take equity out for a boat, you came out alright.

I work in real estate, complete potatoes were making 6 figures back then.
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post 1547553171 03-27-2018, 11:55 AM
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#365
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Originally Posted By Cesarbruh⏩
not sure if srs, watch the f*cking video I posted. It's embarrassing. We've had artificially low interest rates for a decade and now rates are rising, pop goes the bubble inflated by cheap credit. Super market knowledge=knowing we're in a bubble, knowing the cause of this bubble is the same cause for every other bubble since The Great Depression (Credit expansion [boom] followed by contraction [bust])

Do you think 2008 predictions were just based on "luck" as well?


Really? read the post above
"Education is humanity's key to salvation."
Fken lol, looks like you're not doing your part. Maybe read up on austrian economics
If I guess that there will be a crash 1000s of times over a several year period, eventually I’ll be right. That’s how I view those who predicted 2008. That’s how I see the people that have been calling for a crash since 2012. A broken clock is right twice daily.

If someone could accurately predict market highs and lows, they would be swimming in cash. The fact is, nobody knows.

I do not believe the fed would raise rates at a pace that would crash our markets. I think it is healthy to raise rates, and it should have been done long ago. A small correction isn’t out of the question. But a big crash would defy logic. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen.
post 1547554851 03-27-2018, 12:16 PM
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#366
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
Anyone involved in real estate could make cash hand over fist in 2006 and eject shortly after the bubble burst.

If you were smart and didn't blow cash on a mcmansion house and take equity out for a boat, you came out alright.

I work in real estate, complete potatoes were making 6 figures back then.
seems like you're arguing a strawman. nobody was saying that you couldn't turn a quick buck in 2006.

the point being argued was that noobtime trump thought 2006 was a great time to create a mortgage company (which went out of business one year later in 2007).
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post 1547555931 03-27-2018, 12:28 PM
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#367
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Originally Posted By SpeedCheeser⏩
But the 2008 crash wasn't just because things got overvalued at historically high multiples, there was a catalyst to set it off with the implosion of the mortgage market taking down banks and related funds though right?
There really wasn't a "catalyst" per say.

Essentially what happened was a correction while enough people were underwater causing a multiplier effect.

So during a correction lay offs happen and by extension people can no longer pay their mortgage... IF they have equity not big deal they sell it and while the housing market will take a hit it wont crash.

Now lets assume you are underwater... You say fuk it turn in your keys to the bank and walk away. This severely hurts the housing market pushing more people underwater which causes more people to turn in keys...



What is interesting about this market is that even though there are stricter housing requirements the low interest rate artificially increased the value of the house. People have been trained to stop looking at price and only monthly payment. When Mortgage rates were 3% you could buy a whole hell of a lot of house for not a lot of money causing inflation. As mortgage rates rise buyers money doesn't go as far and housing prices will go down. It is not hard to see a scenario much like 2008 again because of that.
post 1547556101 03-27-2018, 12:31 PM
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#368
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
seems like you're arguing a strawman. nobody was saying that you couldn't turn a quick buck in 2006.

the point being argued was that noobtime trump thought 2006 was a great time to create a mortgage company (which went out of business one year later in 2007).
No. Based on your outlook of Trump it's a safe assumption the quote was meant as a subtle burn. 2006 was a great time for lending, and the subsequent years weren't as catastrophic as you'd assume if you were proactive, at least for small time ops.

Most people back then weren't proactive, they were riding the way like with crypto. They jumped in because they saw people make absurd amounts of money with minimal effort, in lending, realty, inspections, and appraisals.
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post 1547558431 03-27-2018, 12:58 PM
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#369
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
No. Based on your outlook of Trump it's a safe assumption the quote was meant as a subtle burn. 2006 was a great time for lending, and the subsequent years weren't as catastrophic as you'd assume if you were proactive, at least for small time ops.

Most people back then weren't proactive, they were riding the way like with crypto. They jumped in because they saw people make absurd amounts of money with minimal effort, in lending, realty, inspections, and appraisals.
again, 2006 was NOT a great time to open a mortgage company (unless you were only planning on it being in business for 12-18 months).

and again, it seems the lack of oxygen in your helmet is restricting your ability to converse logically on this topic.
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post 1547560911 03-27-2018, 01:29 PM
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#370
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
again, 2006 was NOT a great time to open a mortgage company (unless you were only planning on it being in business for 12-18 months).

and again, it seems the lack of oxygen in your helmet is restricting your ability to converse logically on this topic.
oh gee here I am trying to have a discussion and there you are with the personal attacks and the helmet joke again.

Strong sig to post content. I'll stop taking you seriously.

I know people personally who built small time lending teams and got out when they saw the signs. The result was they were sitting on piles of cash to re-invest in rock-bottom real estate. So plz go with your generalization. Based off your post history, you spend way too much time here.
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post 1547561521 03-27-2018, 01:38 PM
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#371
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
oh gee here I am trying to have a discussion and there you are with the personal attacks and the helmet joke again.

Strong sig to post content. I'll stop taking you seriously.

I know people personally who built small time lending teams and got out when they saw the signs. The result was they were sitting on piles of cash to re-invest in rock-bottom real estate. So plz go with your generalization. Based off your post history, you spend way too much time here.
but the helmet jokes are so easy and funny.
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post 1547561801 03-27-2018, 01:40 PM
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#372
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
but the helmet jokes are so easy and funny.
Wasn't lying tbh.

The group of lefties I can actually dialogue with grows smaller. At least there's still Sillie
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post 1547562661 03-27-2018, 01:49 PM
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#373
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
Wasn't lying tbh.

The group of lefties I can actually dialogue with grows smaller. At least there's still Sillie
how can you consider your contributions to this thread today honest dialog when you can't even admit that it wasn't great timing for Trump Mortgage to enter the residential mortgage market as a lender in 2016 and especially considering that they went under in 2017? or are you claiming that their business plan was to stay in business for only one year and they succeeded bigly?

the contortions that people will go to in order to defend the bad decisions of another person in whom they have no vested interest is jaw droppingly jaw dropping.
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post 1547563021 03-27-2018, 01:54 PM
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#374
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Was I wrong about yesterday being a dead cat bounce? What I think I'm seeing is a lot of profit taking and investors starting to head for the hills.
Early AM workout crew.
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post 1547563181 03-27-2018, 01:55 PM
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#375
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
Wasn't lying tbh.

The group of lefties I can actually dialogue with grows smaller. At least there's still Sillie
You'll always have me bro. But chill on |ce, he's cool.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1547563561 03-27-2018, 01:59 PM
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#376
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Was I wrong about yesterday being a dead cat bounce? What I think I'm seeing is a lot of profit taking and investors starting to head for the hills.
possible head and shoulders on the 3 month chart?

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post 1547564091 03-27-2018, 02:06 PM
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#377
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
possible head and shoulders on the 3 month chart?

Worrysome, but the neckline appears to still be angling up. I'll still stick to my meandering lower prediction. If we were to crack 23k, I'd really start to worry and we're a pretty long way from that. Or if we see this pattern on a continual downward trend, then we're phuked.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1547564451 03-27-2018, 02:10 PM
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#378
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
What is interesting about this market is that even though there are stricter housing requirements the low interest rate artificially increased the value of the house. People have been trained to stop looking at price and only monthly payment. When Mortgage rates were 3% you could buy a whole hell of a lot of house for not a lot of money causing inflation. As mortgage rates rise buyers money doesn't go as far and housing prices will go down. It is not hard to see a scenario much like 2008 again because of that.
adding to this:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/38...t-as-gdp-index

US home prices growing twice as fast as GDP: index

The prices of U.S. homes are increasing at double the rate that the economy is growing, S&P Dow Jones Indices found in data released Tuesday.

Home prices increased at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in January compared to the previous year, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data that measures home prices across the country.

That extends a growth streak from December 2012, when the housing market hit a bottom. It amounts to an inflation-adjusted 4.7 percent increase, double the clip of GDP growth, according to David Blitzer, managing director of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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post 1547564721 03-27-2018, 02:12 PM
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#379
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
adding to this:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/38...t-as-gdp-index

US home prices growing twice as fast as GDP: index

The prices of U.S. homes are increasing at double the rate that the economy is growing, S&P Dow Jones Indices found in data released Tuesday.

Home prices increased at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in January compared to the previous year, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data that measures home prices across the country.

That extends a growth streak from December 2012, when the housing market hit a bottom. It amounts to an inflation-adjusted 4.7 percent increase, double the clip of GDP growth, according to David Blitzer, managing director of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The whole economy is looking shaky right now. Trump really better not screw the pooch with these tariffs.
Early AM workout crew.
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post 1547566091 03-27-2018, 02:26 PM
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#380
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
The whole economy is looking shaky right now. Trump really better not screw the pooch with these tariffs.
I still maintain he poured gas on a healthy economy that was doing just fine without corporate bailouts and tax cuts for billionaires.




more wealth redistribution to the upper class under billionaire friendly trump. yet the class he keeps screwing thinks he's doing them a favor. they literally can't see it. ouch!
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post 1547572811 03-27-2018, 03:38 PM
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#381
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Good time to invest.
post 1547573261 03-27-2018, 03:42 PM
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#382
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Originally Posted By sowilson⏩
it's simple, welcome back market volatility. You cucks who've only been in since 2008 haven't seen, or invested through, real market volatility. You need to learn about risk, potential return, and timeline. When I was investing back in 1985 my retirement horizon was a lot different than it is now (8 years roughly) and I've had to learn how to invest for my upcomming risk/reward profile.

Now what sucks is that interest rates were so low (bumping up against the zero lower bound) that increasing bond rates (which is overal a good thing for awhile) will only lead to lower bond prices and there isn't much manevoring room for the Fed in the next recession (and there will be one). I really hate having lots of assets tied up in short term bonds but oh well, you do what you need to do to weather the storm.

Market volatility will teach you how to be comfortable with investments for your time horizon. If you're in your 20's or 30's don't worry about Trump's upcomming recession and market correction just stay the course, because you will never actually judge a market bottom.
This is true. Post 2008 where stocks only go up because of central bank manipulation is an anomaly. Bear markets, real ones, can last decades as they have in the past.

If the Fed keeps its promise to begin unwinding its balance sheet, watch bond yields rise and stocks become comparatively less attractive. Watch out below at that point.
post 1547573401 03-27-2018, 03:43 PM
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#383
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Originally Posted By A-man⏩
This is true. Post 2008 where stocks only go up because of central bank manipulation is an anomaly. Bear markets, real ones, can last decades as they have in the past.

If the Fed keeps its promise to begin unwinding its balance sheet, watch bond yields rise and stocks become comparatively less attractive. Watch out below at that point.
You are going to buy T bonds?
post 1547574111 03-27-2018, 03:49 PM
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#384
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Originally Posted By tk217⏩
You are going to buy T bonds?
I really don't know what to buy. Bond prices are high because rates are at historic or near historic lows. Stocks are high too.

Paralysis by analysis.
post 1547678191 03-28-2018, 06:16 PM
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#385
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Huh?

Lots of big news lately.

Tariffs, Steel Company investing 500M in Texas plant, North and South Korea news, huge boost for car industry and possibly drug, possible new deals with places like Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Phillipines,etc...

Not sure what the problem is.

Big firms manipulating the market?
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post 1547678411 03-28-2018, 06:19 PM
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#386
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Originally Posted By JonZ⏩
Huh?

Tariffs, Steel Company investing 500M in Texas plant, North and South Korea news, huge boost for car industry, possiblenew dealw tih places like Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Phillipines,etc...

Not sure what the problem is.
lol at copy/paste rando ass headlines. If you had money in stocks you would know what the problem was. gtfo sheep
keep rep trading out of your sig line
post 1547678531 03-28-2018, 06:20 PM
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#387
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Educate me *******.
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post 1547678541 03-28-2018, 06:20 PM
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#388
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Made a killing the last few days buying TSLA puts. I've only been trading options for a month and I'm 4/4 on getting 25% returns each in under 2 days. Ridiculous.
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post 1547691361 03-28-2018, 09:18 PM
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No response.
Because you don't know.
I don't claim to know **** about stocks but neither do the experts as I've heard/read 100 different reasons from 100 different people.

I did copy and paste anything just saying things seem to be going pretty well so why the volatility
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post 1547692341 03-28-2018, 09:36 PM
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#390
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Originally Posted By JonZ⏩
No response.
Because you don't know.
I don't claim to know **** about stocks but neither do the experts as I've heard/read 100 different reasons from 100 different people.

I did copy and paste anything just sayingthings seem to be going pretty well so why the volatility
Rising interest rates. Increased cost of borrowing will lead to less borrowing, less investment, less debt-leveraged growth. Among other things...

Will make the dollar stronger though, so...
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